I was right about Walker. Will I be right about Sam Darnold?

The Bears Defense is Bad

There are two stats about Chicago’s defense that stand out when it comes to their matchup against Seattle’s offense:

• The Bears are 32nd in yards/pass against under center plays

• Chicago relies heavily on the blitz, which is when Darnold has excelled

Under-Center

When the QB lies up under center, aka not in shotgun, the Bears are allowing 10.2 yards per pass, which is a FULL YARD more than the second-worst.

The Chiefs are only a few spots below Chicago and Darnold just had his best game of the season against Kansas City. In terms of EPA, the only game better was Drew Lock against the Cardinals, and Arizona has the third-worst EPA/dropback against under center plays.

As I was saying after Darnold’s struggles upon his return from injury, let’s give the Seahawks quarterback a chance to play some worse pass defenses than the 49ers and Broncos. Even the Moons rank as the seventh-best pass defense against under center plays.

Darnold has still generally performed poorly in play action (0 TD/4 INT) and under center (1 TD/3 INT) — and the two are intertwined — but he started inching back up towards a positive season against the Chiefs on Sunday night. The Bears pass defense is exactly the matchup Darnold, and Seahawks fans, need to decide if the quarterback is actually regressing or if he simply needs to bust the slump.

The Bears also offer an opportunity for Darnold to get his first play action pass touchdown of the season, something he and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were supposed to do consistently this year. Chicago is allowing the third most yards per pass against play action (9.9) but maybe more importantly their pressure rate of 22.9% on those calls is 31st.

The team in dead last? The Chiefs at 22.2%. To what degree Jeffery Simmons should change your expectations there is a personal decision, I suppose. As is the high-ankle absence of Charles Cross at left tackle for the first time this season, the addition of Quenton Nelson, and the move of Grey Zabel from left to right. There are more moving parts in this matchup in the week before the game than anyone could have predicted.

But we should always trust what has happened more than what could happen. Plus, Simmons was the Titans’ best defensive player since 2019 and they have never really had a great defense. How much can one person improve a bad defense with a few days of practice to prepare?

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On Monday, I expect to see Darnold under-center more often than usual, more play-action than usual, especially with the changes at guard and the return of at least one (Zach Charbonnet), if not two (Jadarian Price) running backs, and for the Seahawks to find at least as much passing success against Chicago as they had against the Kansas City.

Bears Blitz

Chicago defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is the coach who is most grateful for adding Jeffery Simmons because the Bears rank 32nd in yards per play allowed this season at 6.3, which is 0.2 worse than the Cardinals in 31st. Chicago is 31st in net yards per pass attempt allowed at 7.4.

“Net Yards” just means yards per pass, plus some math involving sacks. The Bears have the fourth-highest pressure rate in the NFL according to Pro-Football-Reference (28%)—although that is disputed by Next Gen Stats, where Chicago ranks 12th. In either case, Allen is heavily dependent on sending extra rushers and those rushers getting home:

• 40.6% blitz rate (4th)

• 37.9% pressure rate (12th)

• 8.5% sack rate (3rd)

• 2.50-second time to pressure (3rd*)

*the slowest team to pressure in the NFL is Simmons’ old team, the Titans

It’s fascinating to compare Allen’s method to Mike Macdonald’s because although Seattle is 31st in blitz rate (19.7%), they have the second-highest pressure rate (41%) in the NFL.

So the Seahawks can get pressure without sacrificing a player in coverage, hence leading to the most complete defense in the league. Whereas Allen needs the extra rusher to get pressure, but is then vulnerable in coverage.

Although the Bears only allow 59% completions when they blitz, they’re allowing more yards per pass (9.35 to 8.38), per completion (15.8 to 11.9), and have a worse EPA per dropback compared to when they don’t blitz. Chicago has allowed seven of the 11 passing touchdowns against their defense when they blitz.

When the Bears get pressure, they have the seventh-worst pass defense in the NFL this season. When they DON’T get pressure, they have the best!

It’s still not good, because they didn’t get pressure, but somehow Chicago has had the least amount of damage done against them without pressure. When they blitz, they’re mediocre unless they finish—which this season has not been often enough for Allen to feel good about long-term job security.

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The Matter of Matchups

When it comes to Chicago’s inconsistent season, it is easiest and probably smartest to answer the question of “Well, who did they play that week?” The Bears defensive ranking is heavily weighted on the four good games they’ve played this season compared to the three bad games.

Carson Wentz+Geno Smith+Michael Penix+Jalen Hurts:

• 58% completions

• 160 passing yards per game

• 6.9 Y/A

• 89 passer rating

• -43 EPA (negative is good for the defense)

• 11.7% sack rate

• 41.4% pressure rate

What we’re learning as the season progresses is that Wentz was probably not even the second-best quarterback in Vikings camp this year. The Eagles are 30th in net yards per pass attempt and have one of the worst offensive lines. Geno is Geno and Penix is still quite mysterious to me.

Although to that point, of the four combined passing touchdowns these quarterbacks had, two were by Penix in garbage time and one was by Geno in garbage time, so these numbers were even a lot worse than they appear.

Then there are three games in which the Bears defense performed at an unacceptable level for a defensive coordinator—especially in Chicago where defense is supposed to be king.

Mind your P’s and Qb’s, because the Bears allowed over 300 passing yards to the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers.

Drake Maye+Jordan Love+Bryce Young:

• 72.7% completions

• 349.7 passing yards per game

• 10.6 Y/A

• 122 passer rating

• +31.3 EPA

• 5.5% sack rate

• 34.5% pressure rate

On a near-identical number of dropbacks (110 to 111), these three quarterbacks shredded Chicago’s defense. They were sacked at half the rate as the other four teams and threw more than double the passing yards. They also shredded the blitz with these combined stats:

• 26-of-38 for 467 yards

• 12.3 yards/attempt

• Four touchdowns, one interception

• +0.47 EPA/dropback

For a defense to be good, they really have to be good always otherwise what’s the point? That team will eventually run into an offense in the playoffs that will beat them—it’s almost guaranteed. Compare Chicago’s uneven defense to Seattle’s this season and no quarterback has really been “good” against the Seahawks this year:

Marcus Mariota’s TD/INT ratio really oversells a bad day in which he was gifted too many short fields. Chicago’s game log shows much more consistency for quarterbacks that “if you’re good, you’ll be good”:

Sam Darnold has undeniably had consistent problems throughout his career when he’s under pressure. That’s where his bad throws and decisions come out, as we saw for one end zone interception against the Chiefs last week. (JSN has said it’s his fault, Darnold has insisted its his fault, which is the type of accountability you want to see out of players on either side.)

We’ll also have to keep an eye on Chicago’s usage of safeties. Per Next Gen Stats, teams have deployed two-high safeties against Darnold at a much higher rate than they did in 2025, which could be part of the reason he’s making more mistakes this season.

The loss of Coby Bryant in the preseason has led to the Bears using journeyman Cam Lewis, a converted cornerback, at free safety. Lewis is — perhaps — a liability in coverage and why better quarterbacks with more long distance range have had so much success against Chicago’s low-ranked secondary. Lewis is playing alongside rookie Dillon Thieneman, a highly-touted draft pick perhaps, but nonetheless inexperienced.

Which could explain why Allen is so dependent on a pass rush that gets home: The Bears are weaker in the secondary than they thought they’d be after investing in Bryant and Thieneman, they don’t have a corner capable of living alone on an island, so any strong-armed, accurate deep ball passer with a deep threat receiver should win a matchup with 2.5 seconds to throw.

For this week’s expectations survey, invest heavily in JSN.

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For Sam Darnold’s stock, it’s a good time to buy low.

Seaside Joe 2798

They are the only one of those 16 teams to have a losing record (2-3) in those contests.

This hasn’t happened at all since the Ravens and Steelers both did it in 2008, with Pittsburgh actually doing it six times in their first seven games—and the only exception was when they allowed 103 rushing yards to Baltimore…in overtime!

The Steelers ended up going 12-4 that season with the number one ranked defense across the board (points, yards, passing yards, yards per carry) but in many ways they were no different than the Seahawks:

Despite their defensive dominance, the 2008 Steelers went 0-4 that season when they turned the ball over at least three times.

When they turned the ball over 2 or fewer times, Pittsburgh went 15-0, including the playoffs. Anything worse than that, the Steelers beat themselves.

The 2008 Ravens lost to the Steelers in the AFC Championship game and they ranked first in points per drive allowed. Baltimore went 0-2 when they turned the ball over more than twice and 10-1 when they turned it over zero or one time; their only loss was to Pittsburgh.

The 2008 Steelers and Ravens had two of the best defenses of the century and only one of them could go to the Super Bowl — or even win the AFC North — but neither of them could overcome turnovers.

The Seahawks are no exception to the rule.

Seattle is 4-0 when they don’t turn it over more than once and 0-3 when they’ve turned it over three or more times. If there’s anything truly special about the Seahawks this season, it’s that they’re almost 7-0 in spite of those mistakes.

—We’re talking about a team that gives up 33 points to the Moons despite not allowing a single drive longer than 60 yards — and only one drive longer than 43 yards — but the score is still 33-31 when Seattle scored a touchdown with 2:51 remaining. They had two third-down opportunities to get the ball back and credit to Washington for not allowing it to happen.

—We’re talking about a team that travels to Denver to play a top-five defense on four days rest and even though Sam Darnold throws an interception when down 14-11 with 1:30 remaining, still finds a way to force overtime. The Broncos were gifted the ball again in OT and were basically in field goal range after Darnold’s final pick.

—We’re talking about a team that turns it over four times to “the best team in football this year” but is still driving to tie or win the game in the final minute, when Cooper Kupp picks up 9.9 yards instead of 10.

It’s tough to win any game when the offense turns it over at least three times, but the Seahawks almost won three.

If they had turned it over one fewer time each game, they would probably be 7-0. Thanks to a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 176 passing yards in any game and only more than 94 rushing yards twice, including 50 rushing yards to the team that has the top running back in the league:

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So when I hear about the Chicago Bears offense and how this is a matchup that Mike Macdonald isn’t ready for, it reminds me of what people were saying about the Chiefs last week, or the 49ers in Week 18/playoffs last year, or what people would’ve been saying if the Bears had beaten the Rams in the divisional round and reached the NFC Championship game.

And maybe this is the most difficult game of the year for Seattle so far. Ben Johnson has managed to grind teams down with the most rushing attempts and rushing yards this season, ranking second in plays per drive and time of possession … but also first in defensive plays per drive, creating one of the widest disparities we’ve ever seen in offensive plays vs. defensive plays:

However, part of the reason for that disparity is that the Bears are 31st in net yards per pass attempt allowed and they have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, statistically speaking. Before the season, Johnson said he wanted to be the highest-scoring offense of all-time and win with “shutouts”, but instead he’s getting “shootouts”.

“You’ve got 31 other teams coming to training camp saying, ‘Our goal is to win the Super Bowl.’ I want more than that,” Johnson told The Athletic.

“I want to have the highest-scoring offense ever, which happens to be the 2013 Denver Broncos. I know how many points per game they scored [37.9], and I want to surpass them. I want shutouts. I want blowouts.”

Well, sometimes he’s getting shootouts.

The Bears are seventh in scoring — a far cry from the most points ever — because they scored single digits against the Vikings and Packers. To be fair, in Caleb Williams’ three starts that weren’t against Minnesota, Chicago scored 59, 31, and 30. One of those teams fired their defensive coordinator on Friday.

And Johnson’s defense is kidding themselves if they’re expecting shutouts.

The Bears have allowed six touchdowns this year of 30 or more yards — all passes — including a 51-yard bomb by Bryce Young, a 58-yard touchdown by Geno Smith, two 40+ yard passes from Jordan Love to Christian Watson, and two 30+ yard passes by Drake Maye last week.

This is not a bomb, just defense so horrible it would scare Halloween:

In comparison, the Seattle Seahawks have allowed ONE touchdown longer than 11 yards. One. It wasn’t longer than 30 yards.

Can you name that touchdown?

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What I expect on Monday

If there is a cabal of secret overlords running the NFL, they must work at Disney/ABC/ESPN because out of nowhere we got a Quenton Nelson vs. Jeffery Simmons matchup on MNF after both All-Pros escaped hopeless teams in the AFC South.

Nelson isn’t the only change to Seattle’s offense this week:

• Quenton Nelson replaces Grey Zabel

• Grey Zabel replaces Anthony Bradford/backups

• Zach Charbonnet WILL play

• Jadarian Price is “REALISTIC” to play

The Seahawks are essentially getting two new starters on the offensive line, both should be significant upgrades even though one of those “new guys” is just moving over, and Seattle’s getting two more running backs right after Emanuel Wilson had the best game of his season.

When the Seahawks average more than 3.2 yards per carry, they’re 3-1. Even an adequate rushing attack by Seattle calms the nerves of everybody else on the team, including Darnold (who should throw fewer passes/turnovers in those games), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who won’t have to carry the whole offense), and the defense.

If the Seahawks can run the ball better on first and second down, they’ll convert a higher rate of third downs and score more points.

Seattle converts over 50% of their third down attempts under 7 yards to go, but 29% on anything longer than that.

Did you submit your Week 8 expectations yet? It only takes a minute!

Take the Week 8 Seahawks-Bears Expectations Survey Here!

(We’ll stick with Emanuel Wilson as the RB for now, and then re-evaluate if it should switch to someone else; I don’t think “team” rushing yards is as exciting to monitor but I could be questioned.)

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To what degree Simmons will help the Bears on Monday is harder to forecast. Surprisingly, half of his four sacks this year came in a single game against the Colts!

Surely Simmons is as much of an upgrade over Chicago’s current defensive tackles as Nelson is over Seattle’s guards (if not more) but at least the Seahawks were lucky enough to acquire Nelson first. As if they have a time machine, in fact.

But what I do know is that few defenses of the Super Bowl era have been as good as the 2025-2026 Seahawks have been and the Bears offense is not the “best of all-time” that Johnson expected it to be. So Monday’s game could come down to how well Seattle runs the ball, as that will set the tone for everybody else.

I hope Nelson brought a horseshoe with him.

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Seaside Joe 2797

Are the Bears a tougher opponent for the Seahawks than the Chiefs were?

Tell me why you think they are or aren’t in the comments, and whether or not Quenton Nelson factored into your decision:

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Tuesday’s trade for Nelson reminded me of another Seahawks acquisition of a similar caliber: Cooper Kupp.

Seattle signed Kupp as a free agent in 2025 and whether the team expected Jaxon Smith-Njigba to immediately become the best offensive player in football or not, it’s difficult to separate his influence from the result.

Not only did Kupp bring the experience of being a wide receiver who won Offensive Player of the Year in 2021, and he was willing to be a mentor to JSN or any other receiver on the Seahawks who wanted advice, but he also allowed Seattle to move JSN from the slot to a more explosive and valuable role as a do-everything weapon on the outside.

Smith-Njigba was well on his way to become a superstar in his own right without Kupp. That doesn’t mean that Kupp didn’t fast-track and supercharge JSN’s development from a star to an ascending legend.

Now consider what the Seahawks just did by trading for the best guard in the NFL despite having a recent first-round pick who plays on the same side:

• Grey Zabel hasn’t developed into a star left guard as quickly as Seattle hoped he would

• Quenton Nelson displaces him at left guard (read Tuesday’s bonus Q Nelson article if you haven’t already)

• Zabel moves to a spot where he may be a more natural fit

• The best guard of his generation tells Zabel and any other lineman who will listen, “Do this…Stop doing that…”

This is the type of “Buddy System” roster building that the Seahawks have created and potentially mastered since John Schneider became the team’s true CEO since the departure of Pete Carroll in 2024.

Such as?

Look at these buddies:

• Byron Murphy II has Leonard Williams

• Derick Hall has DeMarcus Lawrence

• JSN has Kupp

• Zabel (and Beau Stephens) have Nelson

• Jalen Milroe has Sam Darnold and Drew Lock

It’s not unusual for a roster to have players of different NFL generations. But there’s something so intentional about certain pairings like Nelson/Zabel, JSN/Kupp, and Hall/Lawrence especially. Obviously you could say that Zach Charbonnet can give some guidance to Jadarian Price, but they’re totally different types of running backs.

Whereas Murphy is a special player who could become better than Leonard Williams—and they both know it.

On a similar scale you’ve got buddies who maybe we haven’t seen enough of yet, such as: Bud Clark/Julian Love, Julian Neal/Josh Jobe, Rylie Mills/Jarran Reed, Ernest Jones/Tyrice Knight, Devon Witherspoon/Trevon Diggs or Nehemiah Pritchett/Diggs.

I’d even say that Eric Saubert can teach A.J. Barner and Elijah Arroyo what it’s like to be a better blocking tight end.

This is also what makes Nick Emmanwori such a fascinating player — read Wednesday’s Emmanwori value assessment if you haven’t already — because basically anyone on the defense could be his “buddy”.

Emmanwori is learning from Lawrence what it takes to be a pass rusher, from Love what it takes to be a safety, from Witherspoon what it takes to dominate in the slot, from Jones what it takes to plug up the run as a linebacker … He has a lot of friends.

For Grey Zabel, just one friend comes to mind … and he’s the best buddy a guard could ask for.

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Week 8 Expectations

I saw the movie WHALEFALL last week and it kind of reminded me of what it must feel like to be a Seahawks fan who isn’t playing the weekly 12 Questions expectations game every week: Trapped, Lost, Alone, and Afraid. Get out of the whale, play the game!

Click Here:

Take the Week 8 Seahawks-Bears Expectations Survey Here!

Did you play??? Click up there^^^

If you’re not playing, I only have two words of advice for you:

Send Kelp.

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From Chiefs to Bears

In Week 7, the average answer for expected points allowed to Kansas City was 18.7, a result I felt was high given the excellent matchup for Seattle’s defense. This was actually the second-highest expectation for points allowed all season, just 0.3 under Week 6’s game against the 49ers:

The Seahawks were expected to score 22.6 points, the lowest pre-game scoring expectations all season.

I expect both numbers to improve in the Week 8 survey.

I wrote about the Bears on Tuesday, a newsletter immediately overshadowed by Nelson. I think Chicago is more talented than Kansas City offensively — and probably has better 2026 play calling — but they are worse defensively. Saved only by the fact that they faced three really bad offenses from Week 2-Week 4.

The Bears defensive line is a good “settle in” game for Quenton Nelson, as well as Zach Charbonnet in his first action since last season.

Another matchup that could be exploited is Jaxon Smith-Njigba against anyone. Chicago’s defensive backs who have been targeted at least 10 times this season have all struggled. The top line is Jaylon Johnson, who is supposed to be the Bears best corner:

Tyrique Stevenson has allowed 240 yards and 3 touchdowns on 13 catches.

There will be no Coby Bryant reunion because he’s on IR.

Receivers with at least 75 yards against the Bears this season includes Christian Watson (143), Jalen Coker (138), Matthew Golden (123), Jahan Dotson (83), and Tet McMillan (75). JSN has five games with at least 120 yards this season, which is three more than any other player.

Only 3.5% of you predicted that JSN would have at least 150 yards against the Chiefs. Even with high expectations, he’s exceeding them.

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So which game do you think presents more problems for Seattle:

• The Chiefs were 6-0 prior to MNF, and they went to the Super Bowl five times in a six-year span; but they were missing several starters on offense and the Seahawks have the perfect formula to shutdown Ken Walker

• The Bears haven’t been to the Super Bowl in 20 years and they’ve only averaged 20 points per game since Week 2; but Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, and a diverse group of skill players could prove to be a harder equation for Macdonald to solve than a predictable Kansas City offense

Have you decided which matchup is harder yet?

Let’s run through a few more Super Joes questions this week.

Casey: What is MM’s response to the 13 personnel trend? In one meeting he might tell Fleury, “Yep, do more of that because it is hard to defend for teams that have been built defend a different thing.” And in another meeting, “We have a response to defend this, and everyone that is copying the Rams is going to regret playing us.”

Your ‘stack is great and the most insightful commentary on the Seahawks, hands down.

If you’re interested in learning more about Xs and Os and how to defend 13 personnel, I recommend checking out MatchQuarters; here’s a recent substack video he posted on defending 13 with “Patriots 2-Roll Coverage”.

Here’s a video of the Bears running 13 personnel for a touchdown:

Seattle is running much 13 personnel (5%) and they aren’t very efficient when they do. I don’t think Mike Macdonald is necessarily telling Brian Fleury what to do and that’s by design. If Fleury can’t make adjustments to improve by the end of the season, the Seahawks have shown they’re not afraid to make a change after one year.

Hopefully I understood your question and helped a little bit but I’m way out of my element compared to those guys above.

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Ray: I'm super glad SF lost to Atlanta, that sort of thing happens every now and then. But who would have ever envisioned the Dolphins beating the Jets (Come on Geno), the Giants beating Houston in a high-scoring game, or the Buccaneers tub-thumping the Panthers by 30 points?

I asked my Panthers fan friend about that and he just said “It’s a reminder that we’re not good.” I wonder if the Texans need to have a similar realization; their defense has been downright terrible 4 out of 7 games.

zezinhom400: Do you think all the hype around Ben Johnson is legit? Meaning, is he the next Shanahan/McVay? What’s unique about his offenses compared to some of the other great offensive minds like Andy Reid and the above mentioned NFC West coaches.

Does “maybe” satisfy an answer? The early returns are good (16-8 regular season record, top-10 offense both years) and the offensive players seem to be developing nicely. But going by results, Matt Nagy had a better start as Bears head coach than Johnson.

One of the biggest differences you’ll notice between the Chiefs and Bears is pre-snap motion:

• Chiefs have run fewest pre-snap motion plays in NFL

• Bears have run the fifth-most

You’ll notice a lot of heavy personnel (2-3 tight ends), pre-snap motion, wide zone running plays, and Johnson’s ability to stay unpredictable. His offense is like the mirror image of Macdonald’s defense in that he’s trying to show you the same look as before but then do something completely different.

Chicago likes to run outside the tackles as much as Kansas City, but they’re not as good at it. They have this uber-talented quarterback, but then Johnson puts him in a box and tries to mold Caleb Williams into a game manager who also has these wild improvisational plays up his sleeve. We picture Williams throwing 50-yard bombs—but he’s taking the lowest rate of deep shots of any QB in the NFL.

Then you look over at the Lions team that Johnson left as the number one offense two years ago … and the Lions still have a great offense.

For what it’s worth, Sean McVay shot out like a bullet with the Rams, but Kyle Shanahan started 6-10 and 4-12 with the 49ers. So the jury is out on Ben Johnson.

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zezinhom400: What do you see against Chicago that explains your confidence Seattle will beat them. They seem to have a well balanced offense including a good offensive line, weapons on the outside and a strong running game. I worry if we end up in a shootout

If I am giving off “confidence” it’s probably just that I knew the Bears were massively overrated last season and I don’t see any obvious improvements this season. The way that they were so bad defensively against the Packers and so bad offensively against the Vikings, I haven’t seen that level of team incompetence from Seattle since 2024.

Could the Seahawks lose because they turn the ball over three times and one player on Chicago’s offense gets hot like Mike Evans got hot? Of course.

But a home primetime game and Seattle’s defense is arguably better than it was last season? These are the types of matchups for Williams in which the fans will pretend it never happened or it wasn’t his fault. I hesitate to use Seattle’s 6-3 win over the Bears in 2024 because it was his rookie season, but it did happen. He was atrocious in the playoffs last year and against the Vikings this year.

A “shootout” would surprise me. Chicago’s defense is largely based on yards after the catch — something the Seahawks excel at containing — and they’ll be better than any defense the Bears have faced in forcing Williams to take the small stuff. He’s a lot more like Bo Nix than people realize and I’m not saying he’s as bad as Nix, or that he’s bad, but his reputation goes well beyond his resume.

The Seahawks current DVOA is better than any DVOA that Williams has faced in his career.

Last season, Williams had a 107.6 passer rating against bottom 10 defenses, and an 82.8 rating against top 10 defenses. I would be more concerned if the Seahawks were facing Ben Johnson’s former team, the Lions, because if we compared the two Detroit would have the best running back, the best receiver, the best deep threat receiver, the best offensive tackle, and the best tight end.

I’m not sure if it’s based on the hype around Williams and Johnson or the 59 points they scored in Week 1, but I’ve yet to see a consistently potent offense like the one the Bears are meant to have.

As usual, I’d advise people be more afraid of the Seahawks beating themselves than Chicago beating them.

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Rusty: It seems like some pundits like to hand out “best defense in the NFL” awards to different teams weekly. Just yesterday I read the Vikings are clearly tops. Others say Texas, or Denver and before Sunday, some even said KC. Yet my eyes, which have watch d all these teams play, say it’s the Seahawks by nearly a mile. Are my glasses too rose colored, or am I wasting time reading BS about other D’s?

I think it would be important to distinguish, “Best defense at what?”

The Seahawks are not the best defense in all phases, so there’s a chance that they’d be worse off against certain offenses than other teams. Few defenses in history have been the best across the board. Seattle does rank first in yards per game, yards per play (4.0 to second place’s 4.5), and they’re top three in most every category.

Much respect to the Vikings, they’ve only allowed six touchdowns in six games. Their red zone defense? 3-of-13 allowing a touchdown. Seattle’s red zone defense? 11-of-14. Much worse.

There’s a lot of season left and either team — or another — could establish themselves as the clear favorite going into the playoffs … when it matters.

Ryan: Late to the game so I’m seeing this after the Quenton Nelson news (let’s go!!!). Let’s keep SSJ’s predictions rolling - what will his next contract be? (Presumably with the Seahawks since JS continually shows these trades are not 1 year rentals

In the neighborhood of four years, $108 million.

It sounds like a lot, but when the Seahawks cut Cooper Kupp or he retires, that’s $17 million. When DeMarcus Lawrence retires, that’s $9 million. They also won’t be paying Anthony Bradford now. Just with the money that Seattle doesn’t pay to two guys leaving and one guy not re-signing, the Seahawks can afford the best guard in football.

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Thanks to all who helped contribute to Clark’s fund—and everyone who has become a Regular Joes subscriber recently. Clark is doing good but we are going back to the vet today and continuing to assess the steps to get him all the proper care he needs.

Seaside Joe 2796

Emmanwori is in the middle of year two and with as quickly as his star has risen (think part-Troy Polamalu in 2004, part-Brian Urlacher in 2001), it’s not too soon for Seahawks fans to prepare themselves for what figures to be one of the most fascinating contractual arguments for a player and team in franchise history.

The Seahawks won’t have to worry about those talks for another year and a half — which at this rate will set Emmanwori up for a massive raise from the $3.1 million he’s scheduled to make in 2028 — but the question we want to answer today is:

“What position does Nick Emmanwori play?”

Emmanwori’s true position during Monday night’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs was simply “Game Wrecker”.

Maybe more accurately we could call him a “Mahomes-Wrecker”

Per Next Gen Stats, Emmanwori was both a) shutdown coverage player by holding Kansas City’s skill players to two catches for 26 yards on seven attempts, and also b) pass rushing specialist by generating two pressures and forcing an interception by Patrick Mahomes that was caught by Ty Okada*.

*you voted 65 to 35 in favor of giving Emmanwori interception partial credit

The NFL is all about “types”

In the NFL, every contract negotiation and draft room discussion starts with the same classification:

Position.

A quarterback is supposed to be drafted first and paid the most regardless of whether or not he is a better player than the next guy at a different position. Cam Ward gets drafted over Travis Hunter, Jalen Hurts gets paid more than Saquon Barkley, and that’s the economy we’ve all come to expect.

The clearest manifestation of positional value we have is the franchise tag. Started in 1993 as a way for the Denver Broncos to keep John Elway from leaving in free agency, the franchise tag has since become the most important anchor there is in any negotiation with a superstar.

Here are the projected tag numbers for 2027, per OvertheCap:

As you can see, a safety’s tag is set around $22.6 million, whereas a linebacker’s tag is much higher at $29.9 million.

Everybody calls Emmanwori a “safety”, but … Nick Emmanwori does not play safety. He has only spent two snaps all season at safety.

What are the Seahawks going to do?

It’s true:

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This trade is not the same as the Seahawks adding Jerry Rice, Adrian Peterson, or Franco Harris in their twilight. This is more like when Steven Hutchinson left Seattle for the Minnesota Vikings and solidified their left guard position for longer than half-a-decade. Should the Seahawks extend or re-sign Nelson, and there’s no reason to think that they won’t, his Seattle career figures to follow a similar path as teammate Leonard Williams.

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Nelson is 30 and unlike wide receivers that is hardly a concern for an elite offensive lineman. Hutchinson was 29 when he went to the Vikings, Joe Thuney was 29 when he was traded to the Chiefs (and still going strong six years later), and Trent Williams was 32 when acquired by the 49ers. All cases in which the player had 6+ years remaining.

The only criticism of the trade that I’ve seen so far is that a premium left guard either doesn’t feel like that big of a need anymore because of Seattle’s first-round investment in Grey Zabel, or that the Seahawks now have a logjam in the middle of the offensive line because Anthony Bradford is off IR. Well, as I wrote in Tuesday’s pre-Q newsletter (the final post of the pre-Q era), Seahawks fans couldn’t have entered a phase where the sentence “Bradford makes Nelson unnecessary” a reasonable point.

Seattle pushing Bradford to the bench to make room for Nelson is AMAZING news. In fact, I mentioned this trade as a possibility on Seaside Joe over five months ago:

Something that Seattle’s three previous trade deadline acquisitions had in common is that they were “rental” players set to hit free agency after the season. If the Colts don’t want to meet Nelson’s contract demands — presumably making him the highest-paid guard in the NFL — they’re going to trade him. Not maybe. They will.

Seattle would also have to consult Zabel and see if he’s open to playing right guard, but I can’t imagine that the chance to work alongside a Hall of Famer would be a setback.

This is a much different outlook on the position than the one John Schneider claimed to have in 2024 when he said that guards get over-drafted and overpaid and then selected Christian Haynes — who was released on Tuesday in the wake of the news — in the third round that year. Schneider has since used a first-round pick on Zabel and traded for Nelson months before he’s set to become the highest-paid guard in the NFL.

But the only thing Seahawks fans were “over” was watching subpar performances from Seattle’s guards, both in the run game and in pass protection. Zabel may be a lot of things, including a future Pro Bowler, but he’s not Quenton Nelson and nobody ever claimed that he would be despite being a top-20 pick.

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Take the PFF grade with a grain of salt. The side-by-side comparison of Zabel and Nelson by any measure is no less than the only sign Seahawks fans need to accept that Seattle is getting an unbelievably huge upgrade:

On that same note, I used Next Gen Stats to find out how good the Seahawks were at running in between the tackles this season and the answer is as appalling as you imagined: Roughly 25th-30th in the league.

It’s hard to claim that one guard will fix that or that one guard was responsible for Indy’s far better top-5 stats inside the tackles, but easy to believe that Nelson will make Seattle’s offensive line significantly better. Especially by moving Zabel to another position where the performances could be even worse.

Nelson’s run blocking in reels like this one show how big of a difference he will make for an offense ranked 23rd in yards per carry:

But that’s barely half of the story, since Nelson will also change the outlook for Sam Darnold, Brian Fleury, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the passing offense.

The Seahawks have the WORST interior pressure rate allowed:

This is even more relevant for Darnold because the Seahawks are the top-ranked passing team in the NFL by EPA when the quarterback is NOT under pressure. By upgrading the left side with Nelson and turning Zabel into a moveable chess piece — he could replace Bradford, or Jalen Sundell, or even fill in for Charles Cross while the left tackle is out with a high ankle sprain — Seattle made one trade but got multiple new starters.

It’s a move that Russell Wilson sees as yet another reason that JSN could win a second straight Offensive Player of the Year award.

Nelson is also the type who makes other players have to re-think their whole lives before every game—like that scene at the start of the movie Walk Hard…

Here’s what All-Pro Jeffery Simmons said about playing against Nelson:

“As a defensive guy for me, I want to be around the football every snap,” said Titans star defensive tackle Simmons. “You turn on that tape, Jonathan Taylor running down the field and you see a pile, watch out, Quenton Nelson is coming to knock over the pile.”

Adding Nelson at this point of the year causes the 49ers and Rams to have nightmares about the Seahawks that they didn’t expect to have a month ago. Case in point: The Niners traded for DeForest Buckner mere hours later.

I can see you’re as enthralled and fascinated with Quenton Nelson and his move to Seattle as I am, so what you’ve seen so far is just a taste.

Subscribe as a premium member for $5 per month or $55 per year and not only will you get to read the rest of this newsletter, but all the paid content to come — and you know the Seahawks are far from done making news.

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What Colts say they love about Quenton Nelson:

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This is the breaking news post for Seaside Joe subscribers, but click here for my full write-up of what Quenton Nelson brings to the Seahawks this season and how Seattle will make offensive line adjustments this week.

The move is something I dictated as possible — and recommended — in a post last week after the Colts fired GM Chris Ballard and promoted Ed Dodds, a former longtime executive in Seattle with ties to John Schneider. And my projected cost for acquiring Nelson?

A third-round pick and a fifth-round pick.

This is HUGE news for the Seahawks, so share your thoughts in the comments:

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Keep checking this post on the Seaside Joe website for updates.

BREAKING: Seahawks trade for Quenton Nelson!

ANALYSIS: What analytics says about Quenton Nelson trade!

Caleb Williams — the only quarterback ever drafted first overall by the Bears — stands a greater chance of breaking that mold than anyone who has started for the franchise since Sid Luckman, the Hall of Famer drafted in 1939. Maybe Williams will be the one who changes Chicago’s reputation at quarterback.

What won’t change is crowning a heavily-hyped high school and college quarterback as “elite” in the NFL before he’s even proven to be good.

Although Williams has made strides since his rookie season in 2023 — which is encouraging and not necessarily that common anymore — he was already overrated last year going into the playoffs after “leading” the Bears to an 11-6 record, including six fourth quarter comebacks; your team won’t have anything to come back from if they aren’t buried in a hole first.

Williams was exceptionally inaccurate, completing 58.1% of his passes and ranking 32nd in adjusted completion percentage per PFF. In two playoff games, Williams had five interceptions and a fumble and was even less accurate. In his defense, Williams had to learn a new offense from head coach Ben Johnson, going from 90 under-center throws as a rookie to 176 in year two, and doubling his rate of play action.

This season, Williams’ numbers are already better. Way better. He’s completing 71% of his passes, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, and has only thrown one interception. Play action has been much more of a potent weapon this year compared to last, as Williams has already thrown three touchdowns off of it. And Williams seems to have a better supporting cast this year, even after trading D.J. Moore, as Luther Burden and Colston Loveland have all got more comfortable in the offense.

So why the word of caution before declaring Williams as “elite”?

First, Williams has only played in four games so far because of a hamstring injury. In his only start against a great defense — the Vikings — he was just as bad as he was in his worst games last year. 57% completions, 0 TD, 1 INT, 5.3 Y/A, one fumble.

Second, Williams’ strides in accuracy are HEAVILY tied to the fact that Johnson has reined in the quarterback’s average depth of target: From 8.4 yards in 2025 to 6.2 yards in 2026. Williams is completing 74.5% of his throws under 10 air yards (70/94) and 56% of his throws 10-19 yards (14/25). He has only attempted five passes all season of 20+ yards.

Williams ranks 15th in intermediate completion rate and 19th in completion rate over expectation on those throws.

If we were being totally fair, is Williams having a better season than Kyler Murray? Than Tyler Huntley? Michael Penix? Jayden Daniels? The numbers and the context for those numbers wouldn’t say that he is, but Caleb is such an “of the moment” player because of how recently/how high he was drafted that he’s immediately vaulted into MVP conversations as soon as he’s just not bad anymore.

However, if you get pressure on Caleb, he’s bad. If you take away Chicago’s run game, he’s bad. If you make him throw past 10 yards, you take him out of the comfort zone that Johnson created just so he could get his completion rate over 60%.

Actually, he does remind me of Cam Newton in one way … Newton completed 52% of his passes in 2016, so the Panthers drafted Christian McCaffrey in 2017 and suddenly Newton’s completion rate went up to 59%, then 68% in 2018, a number he had never come close to before. Why? Because Carolina made a running back their number one receiver and shortened the distance Newton had to throw.

(Newton was on his way out of the league the next year.)

Williams is a lot better than Newton. He could even be the best quarterback in the league one day. That day just isn’t today.

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Beezo: What are the Bears strengths on offense? What makes Ben Johnson such a good play caller? If I recall da Bears were most likely to regress to the mean this season based on many factors (come from behind wins, one score game wins and turnover differential). It seems like they have been bipolar this year, showing the regression then completing dominating teams - what’s the reality? Have they faced anyone as good as the Seattle D (this year and last)?

Sometimes “regression” is a safe word for overrated. If the Bears had beaten the Rams in the divisional round, the NFC Championship wouldn’t have been close. Seattle would have won that by 20+. Have they improved though?

Mike Macdonald last faced Ben Johnson in 2024 when he was the offensive coordinator of the Lions, and it did not go well. That’s the game in which Jared Goff went 18-of-18 for 292 yards, and Detroit also rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Needless to say, the Seahawks defense has grown a lot since then and warrants little comparison to today’s team.

I have no doubt that Bears fans will follow the exact same formula as last week’s Chiefs fans:

“The Seahawks may be a good defense, but they can’t stop this offense.”

“This offensive genius is the best offensive genius.”

“Seattle hasn’t faced a rushing offense as good as this one.”

And hey, maybe there’s even some truth to that. Maybe it’s fair. Yes, the Bears are ranked first in rushing yards this season. Yes, the Bears are seventh in scoring. Yes, Caleb Williams missed three games.

I’m sure that of all the offenses, Chicago’s is one that might frustrate Macdonald more than most. I’m also skeptical of the Bears for a few reasons.

1. The 2 best defenses the Bears have faced — the Vikings and Packers — held Chicago to a combined 10 points

2. Williams hasn’t played enough this season to prove that he’s improved on some of the things setting him back last season

3. He played most of the Vikings game — and was terrible

4. Since scoring 59 against the Panthers in Week 1 — the worst defense Chicago faced all year — they’re only averaging 20 points per game

5. Roschon Johnson is no substitute for Kyle Monangai, whose status for Week 8 is uncertain

The last point may be the most relevant for Monday: The Bears averaged 196.25 rushing yards per game with Monangai. Since they lost Monangai, they’ve averaged 98.3 rushing yards per game.

Monangai has been out with a toe injury but did not go on IR. Monitoring his practice status this week will be important. And their rushing production was cut in half against teams that had above-average run defenses, not a top-ranked unit like Seattle’s.

Outside of their two worst games, the Bears offense has performed above-average against those other defenses compared to common opponents. Even so, their Week 1 game against the Panthers is doing a lot of heavy lifting for their season averages, so I wouldn’t go as far as to say that the Bears have a “special offense” other than to say that maybe when they’re full-strength they are capable of being unpredictably explosive.

Defensively, the Bears have seen the fewest pass attempts per game of any team, but they’ve allowed more passing touchdowns than they’ve thrown and they rank 31st in net yards per attempt allowed. They have also seen the fewest rushing attempts because Chicago controls time of possession and is ranked first in third-down conversion rate allowed.

However, part of the reason for a higher time of possession is the manner in which offenses have been able to quickly move the ball against them. Only the Dolphins allow more yards per pass than Chicago.

And as far as their third-down defense:

• 5 of the 7 teams they’ve faced rank 20th or worse in third-down conversion rate

• The Panthers have the best third down offense they’ve faced and they only rank 12th (41% on the season, 44% against Chicago)

• The 4 worst teams went 9/41 on third down, but the 3 best teams went 9/28

Not saying Seattle can repeat the third down night they just had against Kansas City, but the Seahawks improved their season numbers dramatically and now rank 19th. I will give credit where it’s due: Teams are on average worse against the Bears than they are against other teams this season.

Put it together, the Bears are neither spectacular nor bad on either side of the ball, but how can anyone confidently rank a single NFC North team at this point? The best team could be in last place and the worst team could be in first place … right now Chicago is in second place. To prove that they are actual Super Bowl contenders, the Bears must perform at a high level against a GOOD-to-GREAT defense like Seattle’s, otherwise they’ll be 0-for-3 against the three toughest teams on their schedule thus far.

Which offensively should come down to a) Can the Bears run the ball against an elite run defense and will Monangai be back? and b) can the Seahawks put pressure on Caleb Williams?

Williams is 73/83 (88%) for 854 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT under no pressure, but 15/41 (36.6%) for 166 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT under pressure.

The Seahawks have the second-highest pressure rate in 2026, only behind the Vikings, and they held Chicago to three points. Getting to former top-10 pick right tackle Darnell Wright may be the key there, as he allowed the second-most pressures at his position prior to Week 7:

Offensively, Seattle must adhere to a committed ground attack, specifically hitting the edges as the Bears are one of the worst teams stopping the run outside of the tackles and one of the best teams inside. And as always a heavy dose of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Perhaps the game most similar to this one so far would be the 49ers game. Which means if the Seahawks don’t turn it over four times, they should be able to win.

IdahoFred: Everyone did pretty well in the KC game. Do you think we still need to trade for extra bodies?

I might be slightly more hesitant to give every player a passing grade on Sunday night because the Seahawks had 13 points prior to Emanuel Wilson’s touchdown run with under 4 minutes remaining. I wasn’t really even surprised by anything that happened on Sunday — other than Wilson hitting 100 yards — so I wouldn’t have much reason to change an opinion from last week because I expect the Seahawks to beat the Chiefs almost exactly in the manner that they did.

There was no improvement from Rashid Shaheed or proof that Seattle knows how to use him, plus he’s now injured or hurt. Cooper Kupp is, as usual, good for an important play or two per game. Charles Cross is injured. There was nothing I saw from the offensive line that was necessarily “proof” that the Seahawks are now going to consistently protect Darnold against better defensive lines than Kansas City’s.

Did we reach a point where the phrase “The Seahawks couldn’t add Quenton Nelson because of Anthony Bradford” is not punishable by banishment?

Seattle would still 100% be a better team with Jonathan Taylor and Nelson. Should they/could they/will they? We’re not listening to those GM conversations so we don’t know how smart or realistic those talks could get, but in a vacuum of course they would make the Seahawks better.

The Seahawks won the Super Bowl last year with Shaheed and Kupp and this same offensive line (and I would’ve still made changes in the offseason) so Seattle could do nothing and win a lot of games again. It doesn’t mean that they wouldn’t be even better and more bulletproof if they did though.

There’s just nothing that could happen in the next two weeks that would convince me that the Seahawks couldn’t improve their roster before the trade deadline — and you better believe the 49ers and Rams are just as likely to make a move as Seattle. The Rams once added Von Miller before the deadline and won the Super Bowl; the 49ers once added Christian McCaffrey before the deadline.

It’s a time of year to embrace a change.

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Samuel Garfield: Weird thing I noticed about the schedule: starting on 12/7 the Seahawks have THREE short weeks (6 days between games) in a ROW. They play on Monday, then Sunday then Saturday then finally Friday (Christmas). Then they have a ten day gap between Christmas and their next game Monday January 3rd.

This feels like it’s gotta be very uncommon? Any idea how much playing with a 6 day break instead of 7 affects teams’ performance? How much do you think this will affect the Seahawks’ performance? I imagine it being a logistical nightmare since players & coaches need days off but you also need to cram in 7 days worth of prep into 6 days thrice in a row.

You’re right it is unusual, mainly because the NFL has crammed Seattle’s together in December. Perhaps they feel less bad about it because three of the games are at home and three of the games are in primetime and none of the games are in the morning.

However, the Bears and Bills both have more “short weeks” than Seattle overall, with six each, the most in the NFL.

For example, Chicago has two Thursday night games after playing on Sunday, two Sunday games after playing on a Monday, and they play the same 12/13 to 12/19 to 12/25 month as the Seahawks do, as does Buffalo.

Mike Florio recently mentioned that the NFL has this oddity of teams playing three consecutive primetime games this year (including Seattle right now) and theorized that the league is testing out ways to get teams prepared for Tuesday and Wednesday games in the future. That the NFL wants to start dominating five nights a week, not just Thursday, Sunday, and Monday.

Your keen eye for Seattle’s short weeks is perhaps further proof of that theory holding weight.

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Seaside Joe 2794

But for those of you who like to have hope, why not?

For those of you who like to ask questions:

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Defensively, the Seahawks have drafted Devon Witherspoon, Byron Murphy, Derick Hall, Nick Emmanwori, and Nehemiah Pritchett in the previous three years. Even though Seattle drafted nine offensive players and only two defensive players in 2025, Emmanwori is easily the best pick in the class so far, and even Rylie Mills has contributed more as a fifth-round pick than Elijah Arroyo and Jalen Milroe as day two picks.

Perhaps if Schneider only drafts defense, no team will ever score on the Seahawks again.

Now imagine if in addition to being great players for everything that they do already, Witherspoon and Emmanwori also forced turnovers?

In the middle of year four, Witherspoon has two career interceptions, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery. In the middle of year two, Emmanwori has one interception, no forced fumbles, and no recoveries. But how many turnovers have they assisted on?

Emmanwori definitely assisted on Ty Okada’s interception on Sunday night against the Kansas City Chiefs:

I have no way of knowing how many times Witherspoon and Emmanwori have tipped a pass or pressured a quarterback into a mistake, and maybe that’s a mistake by the record keepers.

We all know what Witherspoon did to Drake Maye in the Super Bowl and it only shows up as a QB hit.

So the Seahawks have the third-most turnovers forced in 2026 — and the fewest yards, fewest passing yards, second-lowest yards per carry allowed, lowest yards per pass allowed — and you can’t claim Seattle would have any of that without draft hits like Witherspoon, Emmanwori, and Murphy.

You can’t even say it about Sunday night’s win over the Chiefs without 2024 fourth-round pick Tyrice Knight, fifth-round pick Nehemiah Pritchett, and 2023 second-round pick Hall.

The Seahawks’ recent defensive draft picks have formed one of the best defenses in the NFL again. Their individual contributions don’t always show up in the stats sheet.

That’s fine for the box scores, but when it comes to determining a winner to our Seaside Joe weekly competition, I need your help!

Should Emmanwori be credited with a turnover?

To decide the winner of this week’s Greatest Expectations Award, I need you:

Should we award points to fans who predicted that Emmanwori would force a turnover?

If we only give credit to Okada, then Stu is the winner. If we give credit to both Okada and Emmanwori for teaming up on an interception, then Anon1 is the winner. What do you think?

By the way, we had some GREAT expectations submitted this week:

• Seahawks score 20 (eight of you got it right)

• Chiefs score 3 (lowest prediction was 6 by Begaw!)

• Sam Darnold had 257 yards (Worthonium guessed exactly right)

• Emanuel Wilson had 100 rushing yards (Loaf Bench was closest at 90)

• JSN had 150 receiving yards (Jeffrey James and Leb were off by 1)

• Nobody expected Okada most-likely to force a TO

• I picked Michael Dickson as special teams player of the game

If you think Okada should be the only one with a TO credit, then Stu narrowly edged out Jeffrey James, Anon1, and Signature Seahawks.

If you think Emmanwori deserves some credit, then Anon1 narrowly edged out Stu, Long Island Mark, and Jeffrey.

What do you think? Share it in the comments:

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By the way, what a night for Knight. Here’s a linebacker thrown into the lineup two weeks ago and he has had eight tackles in each game, a tackle for a loss, and he’s flying all over the field. The Seahawks need to get Drake Thomas back, but that’s how good their depth is at linebacker right now after a couple years of struggling to even find one good starter there.

Seattle’s depth has been their greatest strength … just another form of the Seahawks dominating “turnover”.

Seaside Joe 2793

Can you imagine if that running back was Kenneth Walker like all the Chiefs fans told me was gonna happen?

Of course, Emanuel Wilson had 100 rushing yards, as he helped the Seahawks beat Walker’s Kansas City Chiefs 20-3 on Sunday night. Walker — as I predicted would happen — was held to 36 yards on 14 carries. It was simply math and matchups, not magic.

The Seahawks are 4-3 and after the San Francisco 49ers lost to the Atlanta Falcons and dropped to 6-1, Seattle’s hope for the division title are not dead.

The Chiefs offense was always in for a long night

As I wrote several times this week, it just didn’t make any sense that Kansas City would be able to score against the Seahawks defense without a turnover by Seattle or a fluky busted play. There was one Sam Darnold turnover, but he did it so deep in Chiefs territory and so late in the first half that Kansas City wasn’t able to get any points off of it after a missed 58-yard field goal.

There were no busted plays.

Given the way the Texans played on Sunday (losing 27-21 to the Giants), I can now safely say that the Seahawks have the best defense in the league. The Chiefs’ nightmare matchup I expected was going against Seattle’s #1 defense without their top two receivers and their starting right tackle. Walker had gained 70% of his rushing yards outside the tackles coming into Week 7, and the Seahawks had the #2 run defense (behind HOU) outside of the tackles.

That’s exactly how it played out: Walker couldn’t run the ball, Kansas City’s entire offense broke down, all Seattle’s offense had to do was score a little and not give anything away for free.

The Steps Were Obvious:

1. If the Seahawks contain Walker on outside runs, as expected, they’ll force him inside

2. Inside, Walker is not even a top-10 running back and the Seahawks have Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams up in there; Seattle has the highest stuff rate inside the tackles

Then if you stop Kansas City’s running game, you effectively shut down their entire offense this season because it’s so heavily predicated on play action. Travis Kelce would be far and away the number one option for Patrick Mahomes, but Seattle is also one of the top defenses in the NFL against tight ends.

Nick Emmanwori was Seaside Joe’s predicted winner of Defensive Player of the Game for that reason … and that’s what he ended up being.

Not only did the Seahawks hold Walker to his worst game of the season, but they put their team name in the column for one of Mahomes’ five-worst performances of his career. And it’s only the second time in Mahomes’ career that the Chiefs were held to three points.

(I want to say that even those three points felt a little cheap, but Kansas City also missed two field goals so we’ll take it as it lies.)

The Seahawks defense performed as expected, but Seattle’s offense and special teams deserves credit too.

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Sam Darnold’s good night

Darnold finished 20-of-28 for 257 yards with one touchdown and one interception. The touchdown came on a perfect sideline pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the interception came two plays after an almost identical pass to JSN went out of bounds just shy of the goal line.

For me, I predict Mike Macdonald and Brian Fleury would admit that something was amiss on the interception. It just does not make any sense that JSN and Rashid Shaheed were supposed to run directly at each other in the back of the end zone. It’s obvious Darnold saw a wide open JSN putting up the mailbox and he threw it to the spot he thought JSN was going to be standing in, but Shaheed had brought additional coverage over there and Darnold never saw that defensive player.

Every clean interception like that needs at least some accountability by the quarterback, including this one, but it feels like more than one thing went wrong there. Luckily, the Chiefs missed the ensuing field goal and overall this was an almost-perfect game for Darnold as the Seahawks went 11-of-16 on third down.

Tonight will improve their 29th-ranked third down offense.

JSN will be the Offensive Player of the Game after totaling nine catches for 150 yards. He now has 58 catches for 867 yards and eight touchdowns in seven games. Dating back to 2025, JSN has 14 games with at least eight catches and 100 yards. Nobody else has more than nine, and Puka Nacua is the only player with more than seven.

However, Emanuel Wilson can’t go unnoticed after rushing for 100 yards for the first time with Seattle. Jason Myers made all of his kicks and Michael Dickson got love from the broadcast for his curveball.

The stage was set for a Goliath on Goliath violence on Sunday night. But by the end, the Super Bowl winners beat the Super Bowl MVP.

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Seaside Joe 2792

Were it not for Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks could be in the running as the worst offense in the NFL. Instead, they’re just really super disappointing.

This change is clearly reflected in Seaside Joe’s weekly 12 questions expectations survey, as JSN has risen from getting 35.6% of the vote for Offensive Player of the Game in Week 1 (Sam Darnold got the most votes) to almost 75% of the votes ahead of tomorrows game against the Chiefs:

Darnold received 17% of the votes this week, and nobody else got more than 2%. That’s how singularly talented Seattle’s offensive personnel is perceived to be by the Seahawks’ own fans.

Could JSN be the most valuable receiver in franchise history? What about in all of NFL history to a Super Bowl contender?

Seahawks fans agree that until now there was never any question that Steve Largent is the best receiver in the history of the franchise. He was also strongly positioned as the best player on Seattle’s offense by a mile.

However, even Largent’s importance to the Seahawks may not compare to JSN’s over the past two seasons.

Largent’s top-3 target share seasons:

• 28.2%, 1983

• 27.3%, 1978

• 27.1%, 1984

For almost all of his career, Largent consistently landed between 24% and 28% of Seattle’s target share. It wouldn’t be enough for me to share yardage or reception stats because we know that football has changed a lot since Largent’s era.

Consider this: Largent led the NFL in yards in 1979 and 1985. He had 1,237 and 1,287 yards in those season, respectively. The last time that 1,287 yards would have led the NFL in a season was 1987. Two years after Largent led the league.

What we can measure instead is volume share, it’s the closest thing we have to comparing receivers across different eras. Now look at JSN.

JSN’s last 3 seasons:

• 24.1%, 2024

• 35.8%, 2025

• 35.1%, 2026

When JSN was teammates with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, he still had a Largent-like target percentage. Without those two, JSN’s target share has skyrocketed well out of Largent’s atmosphere—and that’s the best receiver in franchise history.

It’s almost like when Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs in 1920. The previous record was 29 (by Babe Ruth, a year earlier). Ruth set the career home run record in 1921. He would then hit almost 600 more.

That’s almost how it feels when we compare JSN’s importance to an offense and virtually every other player in the NFL who isn’t a quarterback.

The story is the same when comparing JSN’s percentage of catches and yards:

Largent had a career-high 34.3% of Seattle’s receiving yards in 1978, an era when he was starting opposite of Sam McCullum, a receiver who was good enough to get almost equal targets to Largent over the next few seasons.

This is decidedly NOT the case with JSN right now. Call it design, call it circumstances, put it on Darnold if you want. The Seahawks haven’t been targeting anyone else with nearly the same frequency and they also don’t feel the need to because it seems like good things ONLY happen when JSN is targeted.

Smith-Njigba has 48.8%(!!!) of Seattle’s receiving yards. He has been targeted 66 times. Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, and Tory Horton have been targeted a combined 61 times. JSN has 717 yards. They have 408 yards.

If the Seahawks start winning games and this pattern doesn’t change — they’re nearly 6-0 despite this disparity so it’s entirely possible — I don’t see how voters can avoid putting Jaxon Smith-Njigba into the conversation as a serious MVP contender.

The latest Seahawks video by All-22 is just one offensive lowlight after another, putting pressure not only on Brian Fleury and Sam Darnold, but also Grey Zabel, Abe Lucas, Shaheed, Horton, and most everyone else to start playing with more effort, consistency, and concentration. It’s a team failure across the board … except for that one guy.

The Seahawks have had 16 touchdown drives this season:

• 7 ended on a touchdown pass to JSN

• 4 others included a 3rd or 4th down completion for a 1st down to JSN

• A TD drive vs WAS incl 3 straight 1st down throws to JSN

• A TD drive vs LAC started with a 20-yarder to JSN

There have only been 3 touchdown drives by Seattle all season that didn’t include a first down or touchdown catch by JSN. One of those was a short field that only necessitated two plays. This doesn’t even include field goal drives. It’s crazy how heroic JSN has had to be this season just for the Seahawks to score points.

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Even when you look at Jerry Rice’s career, he always had a Hall of Fame quarterback and a Hall of Fame skill player next to him. It doesn’t discredit him, he can’t choose his teammates, it’s just wild that not even the greatest receiver of all-time was asked to carry an offense (I won’t say carry a “team” because Seattle’s defense is probably doing that) like JSN is carrying right now.

This isn’t necessarily “cool” news

While it is cool that Smith-Njigba is this good, it’s too bad that the Seahawks seem to be struggling at almost every other offensive position. Without a trade, I don’t see how it’s going to get better this season—and it puts so much pressure on JSN to stay healthy. He might not even be 100% right now.

Zach Charbonnet will be back — although not this week, he’s been ruled OUT — but he’s not a star. Anthony Bradford is back, which shouldn’t feel as comforting as it feels. Elijah Arroyo is out for the season. Kupp isn’t regaining his youth. Perhaps the greatest hope lies in the offensive line, if Lucas and Zabel can get it together.

The Seahawks do have to consider changes moving forward if it doesn’t get better. Changes that would have seemed unthinkable in the offseason — quarterback, offensive coordinator, a big trade before the deadline — but perhaps necessary when losses are so clearly concentrated in one area.

Even heroes need sidekicks.

Here are your Week 7 expectations

Average Score: Seahawks 23, Chiefs 19

My prediction: Seahawks (under), Chiefs (under)

4 points is the lowest expected margin of victory by you all season.

It’s also the first time that more than 10% of expect the Seahawks to lose, as 23% of you picked the Chiefs. I don’t expect the Seahawks to score 23 points, but I also don’t expect the Chiefs to score 19 and I do expect Seattle to win.

Kansas City has ruled out starting right tackle Jaylon Moore, as well as receiver Rashee Rice. That means the Chiefs don’t have their top two receivers (Tyquan Thornton being the other) and they’ll have a backup right tackle opposite an undrafted rookie left tackle. Kenneth Walker and Travis Kelce would have had their toughest matchup against a defense all season even if they weren’t short-handed, but they are.

Overconfidence has already bitten me this season and Seattle has their issues:

Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Uchenna Nwosu are all Questionable; Drake Thomas is ruled out. Still, I’m leaning towards a low-scoring win at home for Seattle.

Sam Darnold passing yards: 230 (under)

Probably wouldn’t be that hard for Darnold to surpass this number. I’ll trade in all the pass attempts for zero interceptions though.

Emanuel Wilson rushing yards: 57 (over)

With Charbonnet out and George Holani struggling in a number of ways, I’m leaning on a big game for Wilson. It’s probably Seattle’s best bet.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yards: 116 (under)

He’s been over this number four times already. He could do it again. The Chiefs have been very good against WR1 this season, but they haven’t faced anyone close to as good as JSN.

2nd-most receiving yards:

• A.J. Barner, 29%

• Tory Horton, 27%

• Cooper Kupp, 25%

First Seahawks TD:

• JSN, 30%

• Zach Charbonnet, 27%

• Wilson and Barner, 13%

Sack leader:

• Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy, 29%

• Emmanwori (?), 15%

Most likely to force a TO:

• Julian Love, 25%

• Ernest Jones, 22%

• Emmanwori (?), 18%

OPOG:

• JSN, 75%

• Darnold, 17%

• Barner, 2%

DPOG:

• Emmanwori (?), 35%

• Williams, 16%

• Jones, 13%

Emmanwori’s chunk of Defensive Player of the Game has more than doubled from last week. It’s too bad that he showed up on the injury report late in the practice week.

STPOG:

• Dickson, 36%

• Myers, 31%

• Shaheed, 19%

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Although the 2026 season is in its adolescent stage and figuring out what it wants to be when it grows up, Jones is on track to have a better year than both Brooks and fellow first teamer Jack Campbell.

• Jones is averaging 10 tackles per game (5 solo)

• He has 3 sacks (one in each of the last three games)

• He had his sixth interception since 2025 (seven if you include playoffs)

Mike Macdonald is using Jones as a pass rusher more often than he did in 2025, as he’s on pace to blitz 42 times, and Jones is allowing a career-low 4.4 yards per target and 59.4% completion percentage, so far.

As I noted recently, Jones has the second-most hustle tackles this year among all players (Devon Witherspoon is first) and that’s when a player has to cover at least 20 yards of ground to make a tackle. Jones has two more than any other linebacker. Although PFF has given Jones a low grade for his run defense (could not tell you why) he does rate highly in coverage and pass rush. So do you take the good with the bad or do you just take the good?

The way I’d put it is that I feel no need to question Jones’s run defense. The Seahawks had a bad run defense before he arrived — even with Macdonald — and they have an elite run defense since then.

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His coverage stats are great. His pass rush numbers are great. He had five interceptions in the regular season last year, a rare number for linebackers, and then another in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Brooks isn’t putting up “numbers” this season, opening the door for Jones to move up. Brooks has no sacks, no tackles for a loss, no turnovers forced, one batted pass, one pressure, and unimpressive coverage numbers.

Campbell has fallen even harder. The Lions former first-round pick is ranked 53rd at the position by PFF and has no sacks, no turnovers forced, no batted passes, three pressures, and he’s allowed three touchdowns.

At this point, it’s not if Jones has surpassed last year’s first teamers — he has — but if he can hold off some of the league’s up and comers. Names like Carson Schwesinger, Jacob Rodriguez, Ventrell Miller, and Trenton Simpson are a few that will gain steam over time. But they haven’t played as well as Jones, in my opinion.

The return of Fred Warner probably means that one of those first team slots could get locked up by him shortly. Given that writers have already acknowledged Jones as a deserving candidate last year, he’s on an inside track for the other one. A few more seasons like that and we’re not just talking about Ernest Jones as one of the best linebackers today.

We’ll be talking about him as one of the best linebackers of this century.

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West Seattle Tim: If we lose to the Chiefs and sit at 3-4, what do you think JS and MM would do to the roster? Do they start burning up the phones or do they stand pat and wait for guys to get healthy?

I actually don’t think the outcome changes the plan. The worst case scenario for being 3-4 would still only leave Seattle out of the wild card by 1.5 games:

The Lions will be 4-2 and in the seven-seed if they win, but they’ll be 3-3 and still in the wild card if they lose, unless the Seahawks win.

So I don’t think a loss necessarily does anything. They could make a trade for a player whether they win or lose. They wouldn’t sell off players if they lose. The NFC is just a complete mess and losing to an undefeated Chiefs team should not really change how Seattle sees themselves.

Scottula: God what is there not to ask? Is Charbs playing? Is Fleury giving Darnold an extra protector? Any new important injuries on defense? How’s JSNs ankle? Is Kupp going to wear neon to be more visible? Any progress on trades with the Colts?

Let’s see:

• Zach Charbonnet’s status shouldn’t be assumed. He practiced in full, but Macdonald seems to still be preaching patience this week.

• I’m not aware of Seattle being in need of an extra pass protector, but that doesn’t mean it’s not true. The Seahawks do run a lot of heavy personnel already. The blockers need to block better.

• Uchenna Nwosu made a surprise appearance on the injury report. It does not look like Drake Thomas will return, he hasn’t practiced.

• JSN wasn’t on the injury report on Thursday.

• If Seattle can get their pressure allowed under control, I think Sam Darnold could find Cooper Kupp more often.

• If the Colts lose to the Vikings this weekend, that will probably expedite the decision to have a fire sale.

Bob: Just curious, how many more interceptions can Sam throw before Cranial Rectitus (a chronic foot shooting condition) is diagnosed and Drew gets another shot? What is the magic number that puts Sam on the bench splinter squad?

Unfortunately, the Chiefs have intercepted every quarterback who they have faced this season and only allowed four touchdowns against five picks. I would almost want Drew Lock to start this weekend just so there was some way to settle that Seattle’s defensive matchups do matter, like facing the Cardinals instead of the Broncos or 49ers. Or if Lock plays much better than Darnold when he does face a real defense, then great, go in that direction.

However, Darnold has to survive this one and then the Bears next week should be slightly softer. Whether he plays well won’t come down to an interception total necessarily, but the circumstances of the picks and if he can lead the Seahawks on several touchdown drives. I’ll trade an interception for three touchdown drives of longer than 60 yards.

Ray: K9 might well understand that MM had his health in mind but wanted to take the injury risk anyway. I wonder how much of his KC contract is fully guaranteed?

To be fair, I think the only thing he had in mind was having at least one healthy running back for the playoffs. Which did pay off.

Walker was guaranteed $28.7 million at signing. He got $13 million the day he signed and he has $15.7 million in guaranteed salary over 2026-2027.

If he continued to play anywhere close to the level he’s been at so far, and wasn’t seriously injured first, the Chiefs would then probably extend him in the 2028 offseason.

Jake: I guess the big question right now I have is does anyone have 4 Hawks/Raiders tickets they want to sell. LOL I live out of state and go to 1 away game a year and this year its Vegas. DC, last season, previous include KC, Tenn, NY Giants, 2 superbowls (not last year) London (also Raiders and I tagged a big graffiti #12 in the london railway) SF, Car, Phi, GB, Dallas, Stl, Arz and LA.

Someone please help Jake out!

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That excitement has been heightened by the fact that Walker is the biggest threat to Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s bid to repeat as Offensive Player of the Year, at least so far. Both players have a long ways to go this season before solidifying their candidacy—but this Sunday night game features the league’s leading rusher and the leading receiver.

All the more intriguing is that both the Seahawks and the Chiefs are presented with defensive matchups that figure to create problems for their offenses.

I’ve come to accept this for the Seahawks. I expect a low-scoring game with few long touchdown drives by either team, if any. Kansas City fans are far less shy about their conviction that the reigning Super Bowl defense is but a mere fly on the shoulder for Walker and company.

I wrote a harmless tweet about Walker’s success on outside tackle runs and Seattle’s success on stopping outside tackle runs — obviously just to promote the newsletter I wrote this week about that very topic — and even framed it with a classic compliment sandwich. This tweet has somehow made its way to Chiefs twitter and now has 250 replies.

“I'm happy for Kenneth Walker III and the success he's having with the Chiefs. However, it's not going to happen against the Seahawks. They have a substantially better run defense than his previous opponents.”

That’s how it started, and I am genuinely happy for Walker. As subscribers to Seaside Joe are well aware, I’ve spent the last four years building a case for Walker as a top-5 running back talent and defending him against criticisms by fans of other teams. This would have included Chiefs fans if Seattle didn’t face them so rarely now.

I would also have to be fair and set expectations for Walker based on each individual defensive matchup, not just foolishly promote that he’s going to have 100 rushing yards every week “because he’s good.”

We know he’s good. He’s always been good. And he has rarely had games like the majority of his first five starts with the Chiefs:

Remarkably, four of Walker’s six best career games in terms of rushing yardage have come this season. Kansas City has only played five games.

I’m not surprised that Walker already has two 170-yard games this season. I’m only surprised he never did it with Seattle. I predicted that he would have at least one 200-yard game by now. He was capable, but the Seahawks didn’t want to build their offense around a single running back and that’s also partly the reason that Walker was able to win Super Bowl MVP.

He was healthy. He was fresh.

Were the Seahawks too cautious? Are the Chiefs too reckless? We will absolutely find out this season.

However, what I am sure of is that Walker isn’t going to rush for 2,261 yards (which is what he’s on pace for at 133 per game) and the Seahawks have a better run defense than the Raiders.

A great running back season — like say 1,800 yards — means that sometimes the player rushes for 170 yards, and other times he rushes for 60 yards. He doesn’t rush for 110 yards in every single game. For example, the recently mentioned Jonathan Taylor rushed for over 1,800 yards in 2021:

• 3 games of 170+ yards

• 10 games of 100+ yards

• 7 games under 90 yards

• 3 games 60 yards

Coincidentally, one of those bad games for Taylor came against the Seahawks in Week 1. Taylor had 17 carries for 56 yards. Seattle finished the season with the number two run defense by yards per carry, but 17th in yards allowed.

This Seattle run defense is a lot better than that Seattle run defense. Specifically, they are particularly stout against outside runs, which is also where Walker has accumulated 70% of his rushing yards this season. Against the only average run defense, the Dolphins, Walker’s typical production was cut in half.

I predicted that the Seahawks defense could hold the Chiefs to 15 points if Seattle’s offense doesn’t give the ball away in their own territory, as they have many times recently. Well, the Dolphins had held Kansas City to 17 points until a very late touchdown—with a drive that started in Miami territory.

The Dolphins did that. Is it really a stretch the Mike Macdonald, a defensive coordinator who went up against Walker in practice for two years, couldn’t do the same or better?

Look: Sky Walker

Kenneth Walker has 665 rushing yards through his team’s first five games, the seventh-best total in history:

O.J. Simpson and Jim Brown played in different eras, if not different universes. So looking at more recent backs, why didn’t they all rush for 2,000 yards?

• Jamal Lewis did rush for over 2,000 yards in 2003. When he faced the Jaguars, the number one run defense by YPC, he had a season-worst 21 carries for 68 yards. In a wild card loss, Lewis had 14 carries for 35 yards against the Titans, the number one run defense by yards allowed.

Great running back, great season, bad games against great defenses.

• DeMarco Murray rushed for over 1,800 yards in 2014. In two games against the Eagles, the number five run defense, Murray had 50 carries for 154 yards. In a playoff game against the Lions, the number one run defense, he was held to 3.9 yards per carry 19 attempts.

If football were a science suited for predictability, we wouldn’t watch it. There could be a busted gap that Walker exploits for an 80-yard gain and destroys my whole argument. We have to acknowledge that it’s possible.

But I always lean on defensive advantages when a matchup is this strong on both sides. Super Bowl 48 is the perfect example. I do not bet and I do not encourage you to bet, but apparently Walker’s prop is set at 88.5 rushing yards against the Seahawks.

#1 — Almost 50 yards under his average tells you that Vegas agrees more with me than with Chiefs fans

#2 — That’s at least 30 more yards than I expect

Backs with at least eight carries against the Seahawks have combined for 101 attempts, 344 yards, 3.4 yards per carry, and 43 yards per game.

While there is no direct comparison here, the closest wide-zone scheme would be the Chargers. They split their backfield between two players and had 84 yards on 19 carries. Maybe this helps explain the 88.5 yards prop.

Walker is better than L.A.’s running backs, but Seattle and L.A. both had to reset after the Seahawks took a 27-6 lead early in the third quarter. Seattle’s defense is less likely to go soft in a game I expect to be as close as this one.

Or maybe Walker will prove me wrong and have 150 yards. In every other game of the season, I hope that he does. In this one, it’s not a bias. I just don’t think the Seahawks will allow it unless someone slips and falls over or something fluky.

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Everybody Hurts … Sometimes

With Seattle, fans saw Walker struggle regularly. This is not to say that it’s his fault, it’s more that he’s a cog in a system and every week he goes against cogs in a different system. The ones best designed to stop him are obviously better at it.

In 2025, these are the best run defenses Walker faced:

• Colts (he had 9 carries for 17 yards)

• Jaguars (10 for 34)

• Saints (16 for 38)

• Texans (17 for 66)

• Vikings (13 for 56)

Walker against the top-5: 65 carries, 211 yards, 3.25 YPC, 42 YPG

Walker against the rest: 221 carries, 1,129 yards, 5.11 YPC, 75 YPG

This is how football has always worked. The Chiefs don’t get a free pass just because the new guy is the captain and the prom king and the lead in the school play and just really swell. Even Mr. Perfect has a bad day.

Last season, the Seahawks faced multiple elite running backs, and the only player of any kind who almost hit 100 yards against them was Kyren Williams in Week 11. 64 of his 91 yards came on two plays, including this 34-yard run on fourth down.

On the play — which another team would have just kicked the field goal on but L.A. didn’t have a good kicker, for one — it’s certainly well blocked, minus a potential hold by Alaric Jackson, and then Coby Bryant missed a tackle, which he did a lot.

Seattle stuffed Williams at or behind the line of scrimmage 10 times. They let him free two times. That’s a good ratio and this is the worst run defense the Seahawks played against an individual all season long.

Walker is a great player. We are also allowed to think that no matter who we are rooting for that we can have objective beliefs about football that are not rooted in a bias. I happen to believe defense trumps offense in most cases. Sometimes those beliefs happen to favor our teams, and sometimes they don’t, and Seaside Joe has always shared interesting pre-game observations regardless of what side they fall on.

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“B-b-but Sam Darnold!!!”

I didn’t read the replies to my tweet very closely, there were just too many of them (I’ve never once in my life replied to — and especially never sought out — tweets by people who cover or root for other teams that I disagree with…that just seems like it’s not for me and not my business) but I could parse out a few themes.

• “But the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes” (He’s covered in the original article)

• “But the Seahawks haven’t faced an offense as good as this one” (Isn’t that just the inverse of an argument you’re telling me does not matter, i.e. that the Chiefs have only played bad defenses?)

• “But Sam Darnold…”

As I ENDED the tweet with, wrapping it up in a bow, the Seahawks face basically the SAME PROBLEM that Kansas City has to deal with:

Seattle has to figure out how they’re going to drive 65+ yards down the field and score a touchdown against a good Chiefs defense when it’s been extraordinarily hard for them to do that all season.

The Seahawks are 29th on third down, 28th in turnovers, and they’re 15th in the red zone.

I would favor an elite receiver over an elite running back, so JSN over Walker, but the caveat is that Smith-Njigba’s value can be negated by Darnold himself if he throws two interceptions. Mahomes is less likely to put the Chiefs in that position, even against the best defense in the NFL.

So yeah, it’s not really a “gotcha!” moment to say that the Seahawks could lose when I write IN MY OWN TWEET that Seattle could still “beat themselves”.

“If the Seahawks don't beat themselves, they should do no worse than keeping Kansas City to under 15 points.”

I did the classic B-Rabbit in 8 Mile. I dissed myself before you could.

Over the last 15 years, I’ve been replied to by literally thousands of opposing fans for something I wrote about their team. Tens of thousands. 99% of them always make the same mistake with me, which is that they think I care if they tell me that the Seahawks will lose.

I’ve predicted way more Seahawks losses than they have. If they think what I wrote about Walker is bad (and it wasn’t bad at all), just imagine if Chiefs fans read my posts on Josh Jobe, Derick Hall, Abe Lucas, and Rashid Shaheed.

This job has never been personal to me. It’s objective and when I see “the thing” before a game that stands out to me, like how the leading rusher’s greatest source of yardage income is going head-to-head with Seattle’s greatest strength, I have to share it.

It just so happens that the Seahawks have been really good nearly 15 years, so most weeks it’s easy to expect relatively more success than other teams.

Then every once in a while Seattle comes across a team that has had more success than the Seahawks (I guess ignoring 6-11 last season), and some of their fans feel like it’s not possible for a writer of the other team to find a fact that doesn’t favor their favorite team and shares it and it’s not personal.

Well, the Chiefs fans can take it that way if they want to. It still produces somewhat of a warm feeling to open twitter and see “wow, 50 new mentions!” even though they’re not meaningful or valuable in anyway. I’d rather have one mention from a Seahawks fan than 50 out of Kansas City.

Because while I may get 250 replies before the game, and 500 replies after the game if I’m wrong, if Seattle’s defense performs as I expect them to, my mentions will go completely silent on Sunday night.

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Charbonnet’s last game before being injured was Week 18’s win over the 49ers, when he had 17 carries for 74 yards and a touchdown across 39 snaps (56%) in a time share with Walker. In his final four games, Charbonnet averaged 55% snaps, 4.8 yards per carry, and 62 rushing yards per game.

He isn’t likely to have a big role in his return, if he comes back, but will instead get his feet wet as a reserve behind Emanuel Wilson. The running game has been especially bad recently, as Wilson is averaging 3.3 yards per carry and 52 yards per game since Week 2, and he’s fumbled twice.

How soon until Charbonnet takes Wilson’s place on the weekly expectations survey’s main running back?

Week 7 Seahawks-Chiefs expectations

Every week I’m keeping a record of your expectations ahead of the Seahawks game — yards, best players, final score, etc — and averaging them out for a consensus result. I strongly believe in this exercise and I think that it will become a signature series in the legacy of the Seaside Joe community.

If you play the Expectations Game with, you will literally become a part of Seahawks history! And it’s entirely free to participate:

Enter your Week 7 Expectations NOW!

^^It’s two minutes of your time to change the rest of your life for, I’m gonna say, the better.^^

On Tuesday, I shared some insights into the matchup of Walker and the Chiefs offense against the Seahawks defense. What about the other way around?

Chiefs pass defense: 217 yards per game (15th)

Chiefs run defense: 88.8 yards per game (6th)

Best REC game against: 86 yards (Brock Bowers)

Statistically, this would appear to be Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s toughest matchup. Nobody has had 90 yards against Kansas City’s pass defense this season, and Josh Downs has had the most yards by a receiver and that was only 72.

Part of that is due to matchups.

The Raiders, Colts, Dolphins, Chargers, and Broncos have some of the least impressive receiver rooms in the NFL. I mean who is the best 2026 receiver on all of those teams combined? Tre Tucker?

So it should be the same story for the quarterbacks they’ve faced. Where would you rank Sam Darnold in this group:

• Bo Nix

• Kirk Cousins

• Daniel Jones

• Malik Willis

• Justin Herbert

Fittingly, we did the Darnold-Herbert comparison over the weekend. Right now in 2026, I’d put the Darnold-JSN connection alone atop that list. It’s just not a very good list.

The only running back to rush for more than 60 yards against the Chiefs this season is the aptly-timed Jonathan Taylor — wrote about the trade possibility this week — who had 92. Ashton Jeanty had 58, Ollie Gordon had 41, JK Dobbins had 36.

So for me, I expect JSN to have the most individual yards against the Chiefs of any WR this season, Darnold to have the second-most passing yards (Cousins had 365), but I don’t expect Wilson or Charbonnet to top 40 or 50 yards on the ground.

Defensively, I really like the odds of Nick Emmanwori impacting both the running game and passing game as a versatile edge/slot, but that extends to Ernest Jones and Devon Witherspoon too. I’m going to go out on a limb and say George Holani has the second-most receiving yards.

I know this comes as a surprise: I expect the Seahawks to score more points than the Chiefs. Say…18 to 12.

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Samuel Garfield: Why the hell are the Seahawks favored to win by bettors?

It sounds like bettors take a more logical, measured approach to predicting outcomes than merely looking at win-loss records. The difference between 3-3 and 6-0 is eight points.

The difference between 5-0 and 3-2 for Kansas City is five points. It’s throwing stones in glass houses to say that the Chiefs looked beatable against bad teams like the Colts, Dolphins, and Raiders because Seattle lost to the Moons.

But are their struggles comparable when you consider that they lost to an undefeated 49ers team on Sunday by three points and then had to go to Denver on Thursday and they lose by three points again?

If the Seahawks had pulled off the sweep last week, everyone’s calling them the best team in football for sure. It wasn’t that far away from happening!

Getting this game at home in primetime, I think that’s enough for many people — including me — to expect Seattle to remind us why they won the Super Bowl with much of the same team. I’ll call my shot with Kansas City:

I think the Chiefs go 6-6 the rest of the season.

They’re overachieving in a way that isn’t sustainable.

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Erniegehre: I loved your article on trading for Nelson, and Taylor, well thought out, also love the idea of Sauce Gardner, a tall corner back 6’3” which I think is needed for opponents tall receivers Ala Mike Evans. But I believe Seahawks will focus on offense. I doubt Schneider would pay Taylor that much after letting Walker get away for less, and his two running backs coming back. Bradford will leave for silly money, so maybe Nelson is the answer. I did love TB comments how Sam has to let the ball go way sooner. With everybody saying this will be one of the best drafts ever don’t see us giving away a 1, or 2 pick. So hopefully they can fix offensive line woes. As always enjoy your articles.

Many thanks to you and I wish you and your family one million years of good luck.

Trade proposals and ideas of any kind almost never bear fruit. Trading for Jonathan Taylor and/or Quenton Nelson is immensely unlikely to happen, but doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t put it on the record anyway. In past cases, as we’ve seen, I’ve been able to go back and track not only the moves that Seattle did make but also the opportunities that they passed on.

However, I will say that Taylor is much cheaper to the Seahawks than Walker would have been.

That’s because Indianapolis had to pay his $15 million signing bonus, not a team that trades for him. Seattle would only owe him the remaining portion of his $7 million base salary, which right now is under $5 million. Even paying him next year would make him much cheaper than Walker—and the Seahawks still need to pay somebody to play running back. So it’s not just Taylor’s salary on top of nothing; it’s his salary over someone else’s salary.

Do I think you’re “wrong” in saying that Schneider probably wouldn’t pay it. No, not really. But we’re not in Schneider’s head when he sees that every Seahawks running back has already fumbled twice. The way this season has gone should make any general manager re-think his previous strategy.

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Chip Mac: For all the criticism regarding AB at right guard, I think everyone can agree he is way better than the current replacement (Haynes and Stephens). Stephens maybe the future,but he not ready for prime time today. My question is how fast can AB come back and contribute, especially to the run game?

Sounds like he will return on Sunday and play the entire game. I wouldn’t expect Seattle to activate him just to give him some reps. I think they’d only start him if they were confident that he’s ready for his usual night.

Historically, Anthony Bradford has not been graded as a great run blocker. I think his reputation has been upgraded considerably while he’s been out because of how the backups — and the offensive line as a whole — has played recently. Ironically, last year we were saying “anyone is better than bradford” based on how he played.

Could he be considerably better after 1.5 years of coaching from John Benton? Potentially. I’m more “cautiously optimistic” than excited. Chris Jones hasn’t been elite this season. Let’s hope he doesn’t remember how to be elite this Sunday.

zezinhom400:

It’s going to be a great challenge between Kenneth Walker and our defense -- they both want it BAD. And we have this going for us, 5th longest in league history:

Longest Streaks Without Allowing a 100-Yard Rusher in NFL History

Team Consecutive Games Streak End / Details

• Cleveland Browns 59 Broken by Ollie Matson in 1956

• Philadelphia Eagles 53 Broken by Emmitt Smith in Week 8, 1992

• Los Angeles Rams 51 Broken by Ken Willard in Week 9, 1968

• Baltimore Ravens 46 Broken by Corey Dillon in Week 14, 2001

• Seattle Seahawks 35 (active) Ongoing streak through October 2026

My question is: KC seems to be doing well bc they have balance and Spags on defense. When I look at KC’s passing offense I’m not that impressed -- Kelce is clearly aging, and the WRs are unimpressive. Feels bizarre to say this but would you agree that if Mahomes has to throw 40+ times, Seattle wins?

Seems I ended up answering most of your question with Tuesday’s newsie. Maxx, you asked a similar question in the Super Joes Q&A also.

When Patrick Mahomes faced the Texans last season, he posted a passer rating of 19.8 (14/33, 160 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT), which is the worst of his career. In fact, his three worst games have come within the last two seasons. The Seahawks defense belongs up there with the best that Kansas City has faced since 2024, if not the best.

Then you take away Tyquan Thornton, who had become KC’s best receiver, and you potentially have the personnel/play caller to stifle both Kenneth Walker and Travis Kelce … in my opinion, Andy Reid is too smart to have Mahomes throw it 40 times.

Mahomes is the last quarterback I’d want to see in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line because he’s so smart with the football, he’s not going to “Dak Prescott” the game away, and it’s annoying that he’s so good at manipulating the situation to get exactly what the Chiefs need.

However, you almost have to split his career between the first five seasons and everything he’s done since 2023. He was on track to be the best quarterback in history there for a while (both Super Bowls AND stats). I’m curious to see where it goes from here because he’s practically a “he just wins” quarterback now.

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Seaside Joe 2789

If the Seahawks do not turn the ball over against Kansas City — which isn’t that likely — they should be able to beat the 5-0 Chiefs on Sunday night.

With turnovers, I still think Seattle’s defense is too well-matched against Kansas City’s offensive strengths for the outcome to be anything other than close. Walker has poisoned Chiefs’ opponents, but the Seahawks have the antidote.

How Walker changed Patrick Mahomes

The presence of a true number one running back has changed the way Andy Reid runs the offense through quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Specifically, Mahomes has seen a rise in play-action attempts from 11.4% of his passing plays in 2025 to 27.8% in 2026, and under-center calls from 8% to 27.2%.

Kansas City has ditched RPO (Run-Pass Option) for an under-center, play-action offense that has generated +0.27 EPA per pass, which ranks sixth in the NFL. Without play-action, the Chiefs are generating +0.07 EPA/pass, which is worse. Mahomes has increased his play-action completion rate from 2025 by over 17% and yards per attempt by over 3 yards per attempt.

I can’t prove that this is directly related to the addition of Walker, but it can’t hurt that he’s so much better than Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City’s two running backs last season. Hunt and Pacheco averaged 3.7 yards per carry, but Walker is averaging an NFL-best 6.3.

Walker’s 21.2 rushing attempts per game are EIGHT more per game than he had with Seattle last season and SIX more than his career-high. How long will Walker be able to sustain this pace? At this rate, Walker would have a new career-high in rushing attempts by Week 12.

Does Run Game Impact Play-Action Success?

I know about the debate regarding the run game’s impact on play-action, so let me emphasize that this is not what I’m talking about. I’m merely talking about TENDENCIES. I can’t prove a causation between Walker and play-action success, but I CAN prove that the Chiefs have completely changed their offensive identity this season.

The Chiefs are under-center 3.4 times more often this season. That’s huge. Walker being an elite running back marries two offensive strengths and therefore two objectives for any defense:

• Stop Kenneth Walker III on the ground

• Limit Mahomes’ ability to torch with PA passes

In a small early-season sample size, Mahomes has seen dramatic improvement on third downs this season, from 6.8 Y/A to 10.5 Y/A, and from a passer rating of 65.2 to 100.0.

Kansas City had a top-five offense every year from 2017 (the year Alex Smith was starting) to 2022, and they won two Super Bowls that way. Their defense carried them to the Super Bowl in 2023 and 2024, while the offense was below-average. But this season the Chiefs rank fifth in scoring, first in total yards, first in rushing yards, first in yards per carry, and third in net yards per pass attempt.

Mahomes was the quarterback during Kansas City’s offensive dry spell and Walker is the new guy, so it’s natural to attribute the change to him.

But Walker isn’t a superhero, he just has a superpower and Seattle has the kryptonite for it: Outside zone runs.

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Outside Noise

I’ve pulled this data from NFL Pro, the league’s own analytics website.

Outside the tackles, Kenneth Walker had 59 rushing attempts for 464 yards, averaging an NFL-best 7.9 yards per carry. That’s 1.8 yards(!) better than second-place Bijan Robinson. It’s 2.5 yards better than third place.

He’s averaging +4.5 Rushing Yards Over Expected per run outside the tackles. That’s not among the best, it’s not the best…It’s more than 2x second place:

(Why are all these teams red?)

Without outside tackle runs, Kenneth Walker would not be in conversations for Offensive Player of the Year. Would he even be in Pro Bowl talks?

Inside the tackles, Walker is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks 15th. Eight running backs average at least 5.0 YPC inside the tackles, so it’s not like this is something that just every team loses steam with. Walker goes from the leading rusher by EPA OUTSIDE the tackles to 35th INSIDE the tackles.

So if your defense can limit Walker’s damage outside the tackles, the Chiefs should theoretically have an extremely frustrating day on the ground. Before we talk about Seattle’s ability to do that, let’s look at Kansas City’s first five opponents’ ability to do that.

BONUS: The Seahawks should make these 2 trades with the Colts!

The Chiefs are 5-0

Here are those five teams:

• Week 1 Broncos (17th against outside tackle runs)

• Week 2 Colts (26th against outside tackle runs)

• Week 3 Dolphins (15th against outside tackle runs)

• Week 4 Raiders (32nd against outside tackle runs)

• Week 6 Chargers (12th against outside tackle runs)

The Chiefs have defeated two teams with zero wins (L.A., Miami), a team with a three-game losing streak (Las Vegas), a team that fired their GM after a 2-4 start (Indy), and the Broncos.

By yards per carry allowed, the Dolphins are the best run defense that Kansas City has faced, allowing 3.7 YPC, whereas the other four are between 4.0 and 4.9 YPC allowed. The Colts and Raiders are terrible against the run, whereas the Broncos and Chargers are just mediocre-to-bad.

Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10

For as bad as Miami is overall, they do have a good run defense under new head coach Jeff Hafley. As it so happens, the Dolphins are the only team to hold Kansas City under 150 rushing yards by keeping them to 88. And what happened?

The score was 14-10 going into the fourth quarter and 17-10 with six minutes left!

Mind you this is the DOLPHINS. Had Malik Willis not lost a fumble late in the first half, had Miami not essentially turned it over on downs three times, we could very well be talking about Kansas City’s only loss this season coming against the Dolphins. And what’s the one thing Miami can do?

Stop the run. They’re good at it. The Seahawks are GREAT at it.

Outside Tackle run defense stats

Dolphins: 4.6 yards per carry, +0.9 RYOE on outside tackle runs

Seahawks: 3.6 yards per carry, -1.01 RYOE on outside tackle runs (2nd)

The Dolphins, Broncos, and Chargers are all in the same general space for run defense outside the tackles. They’re middle of the road. Seattle’s in a different universe.

When you look at the Raiders’ run defense, they’re allowing an unbelievable +2 rushing yards over expectation PER carry on outside tackle runs. The explanation for RYOE is as simple as it sounds: If a designed run is expected to get 3 yards, the Raiders give up 5 yards—on average. That’s 32nd.

Walker had 22 carries for 177 rushing yards against Las Vegas. The Chiefs turned that into a 20-point fourth quarter and won the game.

The Seattle Seahawks RYOE on outside tackle run is -1.01, as in NEGATIVE. If a run is expected to get 3 yards, Seattle only allows 2 yards. Only the Houston Texans (-1.3 RYOE) are better.

With that information, can you see why I’m skeptical that Kenneth Walker will have a “revenge game” against the Seahawks?

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Seahawks Personnel for Stopping Walker

What I would expect is that with Nick Emmanwori as a SAM linebacker (45% of his snaps this season have come from a LB alignment, while another 25% have come in the slot and 25% as an EDGE) Seattle has the speed and size advantage to contain outside tackle runs unlike most teams. Drake Thomas (ankle) missed Week 6 and his status for Week 7 is uncertain, but obviously his range for a linebacker is very valuable. Ernest Jones is one of the best in the league, and Devon Witherspoon is a top-tier tackler at corner.

Jones and Witherspoon rank 1st-2nd in “hustle” tackles this season:

“A Hustle: Defensive stops where the player covers 20+ yards of in-play distance from snap to tackle”

With talent like this on Seattle’s defense, Walker is going to face the toughest test he’s had all season—perhaps during his entire career—when it comes to hitting the edge with the ferocity and effectiveness that made him a star.

“So do the Chiefs just turn inside?”

They could, but there’s nothing special there. Kansas City is 24th in EPA per run inside the tackles and the Seahawks have Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy up in that business.

We’ve seen Kansas City struggle against arguably the worst team in the NFL when they couldn’t run the ball like usual, and that was the Dolphins. Miami’s defense is nowhere near the caliber of Mike Macdonald’s defense, so I’m really struggling to find a reason why Kenneth Walker—bless him—won’t hit a complete brick wall on Sunday.

If I’m right and that happens, then what happens to Mahomes?

Patrick Mahomes under-center, play-action

The Seahawks have been an elite defense against under-center offense, allowing just 3.6 yards per pass on those plays in 2026.

This has also translated into an elite play-action defense:

• 48 plays against play-action

• 4.6 yards per pass

• 0 touchdowns

• 46% pressure rate

• -.30 EPA per pass

It helps that the Seahawks are an anomaly defense that can stop the run without loading the box, allowing Seattle to drop seven and defend the pass. Mahomes has been less effective on non-play action passes, seeing his comp% drop from 77% to 62% and his passer rating drop from 120 to 96.5.

It will be even harder for Mahomes to complete intermediate-to-deep passes (which he’s among the worst at in the NFL already) without top receiver Tyquan Thornton, who was seriously injured a couple weeks ago. In his first game without Thornton, Mahomes averaged a season-low 4.4 air yards per pass, threw ZERO deep passes, and finished with zero touchdowns/one interception.

Mahomes is 32nd in intended air yards per pass (6.1), only ranking ahead of Bo Nix.

When Nix faced Seattle’s defense, he was historically awful.

Mahomes is ridiculously dependent on Travis Kelce, a player who the Seahawks can match with Emmanwori, Jones, and Julian Love. Tight ends against the Seahawks this year:

• Trey McBride had 41 yards, Hunter Henry had 26 yards, George Kittle had 24 yards, Oronde Gadsden had 36 yards, Evan Engram had 13 yards

If this game goes like the first six weeks for both teams, then the Seahawks should be able to neutralize the two most important players around Mahomes—Walker and Kelce—and force him to be successful out of situations that make him less comfortable.

And this is such an important rule for me:

Defensive Success Usually Beats Offensive Success

Like Super Bowl 48, I will always bet on great defense in any matchup.

If the Seahawks can control the perimeter and cutback lanes, force Walker inside between the tackles, they should not be gashed on the ground. If Kansas City can’t run like they did for six weeks, what do they do next? Mahomes is heavily reliant on YAC and the Seahawks are great at limiting those yards too.

This is the answer to a Super Joes question. If you want to join the weekly Q&A by upgrading to Super Joes for $10/month, do so now:

My biggest concern defensively?

Finishing off PRESSURES with SACKS. Derick Hall can’t possibly be living up to anyone’s expectations based on the contract he signed. Sumer Sports ranks him as the worst run defender among all edges this season, while his pass rush productivity hasn’t been much better.

You can be a good edge without sacks — DeMarcus Lawrence is the perfect example — but Hall isn’t it.

Mahomes may not be as dangerous as a runner as he used to be (career-lows in success rate and yards per carry) but I don’t want to see him escaping pressure, running around, and finding a play when he shouldn’t be allowed to. If you get pressure, finish it!

I expect the Chiefs to punt at least five times, whereas 7+ would be a LOT of punts…I still think we might see Kansas City punt seven or eight times on Sunday night.

Is that good enough for Seattle to win? The offense and special teams have to do their part. It can’t all be on the defense. However, I’m excited to see the Seahawks prove that even if they should have tagged and kept Kenneth Walker, they won’t be beaten by him face-to-face.

Seaside Joe 2788

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The Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard on Monday after a 2-4 start and promoted Ed Dodds into an audition for the job starting now. Dodds started working for the Seahawks as a scout in 2007 and moved up the ladder in Seattle over the next decade, serving as John Schneider’s Senior personnel executive from 2015-2016.

Schneider has improved the roster prior to each of the last three NFL trade deadlines. Now a former protégé is calling shots for a team open to a rebuild and they hold they keys to at least two obvious upgrades for an offense suffering due to these weaknesses.

What are the logistics of trades for Taylor, Nelson, and anyone else?

RB Jonathan Taylor

Age: 27

Contract: Signed through 2028, owed $16 million in 2027

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Despite losing three of their last four, the Seahawks haven’t really been punished for their failures yet. Not to the degree that most teams would feel despondent after an early season collapse. Instead, Seattle’s defense still ranks first in yards per game/passing yards per game allowed and they sit just a .5 game back of the bye week Lions for a wild card.

BONUS: The Seahawks should trade for Jonathan Taylor and Quenton Nelson. Here’s why and how!

Not only are the Seahawks as much alive as the 5th-seeded Packers, every team below Seattle is 2-4 or worse. That includes the Los Angeles Rams, as the preseason Super Bowl favorites are 2-4 and in last place in the NFC West after losing to the Arizona Cardinals.

Before the season, I wrote that the Rams were much more flawed than the picture being painted for Sean McVay. I cited special teams as their greatest weakness, as well as their susceptibility to a single injury, and a vanilla defense led by Chris Shula. L.A. has stumbled out of the gate because of injuries to Myles Garrett and Puka Nacua (now it appears Davante Adams suffered a serious leg injury), a mediocre defense, and the worst special teams in the NFL.

Of the six 2-4 teams under Seattle, the Rams are in sixth based on tiebreakers:

• 2-4 Falcons (lost last 2)

• 2-4 Saints (lost 3 of 4)

• 2-4 Eagles (Jalen Hurts on IR)

• 2-4 Cowboys (lost last 2)

• 2-4 Cardinals (just ended 4-game losing streak)

• 2-4 Rams (lost 3 of 4)

• 1-3-1 Moons (only win against Seahawks)

• 1-5 Bucs (only win against Cowboys)

You could counter by noting that the Seahawks have lost their last two, and three of four, and they lost to Washington, but all of these teams have suffered ugly blowout losses. Even the Rams. Seattle doesn’t lose like that. They’ve been in every game because of their defense, losing all three by a combined eight points.

If there’s a fraud left out of the playoff picture today, it’s not the Seahawks. If there are three frauds, they are the Rams, the Eagles, and the Cowboys.

Who can seriously compete in the NFC?

9-seed and lower:

2-4 Atlanta Falcons (Bears 31, Falcons 23)

The Falcons were down 31-7 with 10 minutes left in the game. To cut the score to 31-23 is a little fluky and last week Atlanta lost to the Ravens with Tyler Huntley, a team that just lost to the Browns. I’d be wary of believing in the Falcons and the Falcons defense.

2-4 New Orleans Saints (Saints 34, Giants 27)

Maybe the real headline here is that the 3-2-1 Giants are in first place in the NFC East and nobody in the division looks ready to challenge them—even if New York loses seven more games, as they seem capable of doing.

As I wrote last week, the Seahawks may only need to set their sights on the 5-seed, if they can’t catch up to the 49ers in the NFC West. It’s not ideal, but it could still put Seattle in a great position to play a horrible division winner and reach the second round of the playoffs without facing the number one seed.

The Saints beat this team despite Tyler Shough going 16/30 for 144 yards. New Orleans has now beaten John Harbaugh’s current team and his old team (The Ravens, in Week 2) and in between they were outscored 103-64 in three losses.

2-4 Philadelphia Eagles (Panthers 25, Eagles 14)

Hey, Michael Robinson is in the news.

Hurts is on IR. Lane Johnson retired. Saquon Barkley didn’t play this week. The Eagles have lost four straight games.

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2-4 Dallas Cowboys (Packers 23, Cowboys 13)

Did Brian Schottenheimer ever think to ask Pete Carroll for defensive advice? The Cowboys might have the worst pass defense in the league and that’s one sure way to miss the playoffs.

Dallas lost Sunday night even though they had 10 days rest after losing to the Buccaneers — with Jalon Daniels — in a Thursday night game where the Cowboys trailed by 14 points in the fourth quarter. At home.

2-4 Arizona Cardinals (Cardinals 18, Rams 16)

2-4 Los Angeles Rams (Cardinals 18, Rams 16)

Well, which team am I supposed to believe is better now? The Rams are in sole possession of last place in the NFC West. If the Moons somehow beat the 49ers on Monday, L.A. will be the second-worst team in the entire conference.

The Rams are a team that could rebound over the next month.

They next face the Raiders, Chargers, Moons, and Cardinals. Three of those four games are on the road, and the one home game is against the other L.A. team that uses SoFi. Las Vegas has lost three in a row now, the Chargers have lost six in a row, and Washington is obviously a really bad team despite beating Seattle.

Myles Garrett could also return next week, but he might miss at least one more game. Unfortunately for the Rams, Adams came up limp on a non-contact injury in the final minute of L.A.’s loss:

The Rams cut kicker Harrison Mevis after a bad game against the Bills on Monday night — one of the most predictable cuts in the league if you had asked me to name someone three months ago — and then replacement Blake Grupe was injured on his first kickoff trying to make a tackle … a tackle he had to make because L.A.’s coverage unit and coaching is so bad.

Of all the teams mentioned so far, the Rams are probably still the most talented. Remarkably, they’re in 14th place but have the same record as the team in 9th place, so if they beat the Raiders and Chargers they’d be 4-4 and right back in the thick of the wild card.

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Obviously easier said than done after losing to the Cardinals — and nearly losing to the Eagles two weeks ago — but nevertheless realistic, as is L.A. getting to 6-4.

The Teams Ahead

The Lions are on a bye week and the owners of the worst-ranked defense by yards per game allowed return with division games against the Packers and Vikings; five of Detroit’s next six games are at home.

The Packers next five games are difficult: Lions, Panthers, Patriots, Vikings, and Rams.

The Vikings return from their bye with somewhat of a layup against the Colts, followed by Lions, Bills, Packers, and 49ers.

Seattle’s next two games are against the Chiefs and Bears, followed by Cardinals and Raiders. If they can manage 3-1 or 4-0, they’ll almost certainly be in the driver’s seat for the 5 or 6-seed at midseason. The team in that position will face the winner of the NFC South or NFC East, most likely, and that could be a relatively easy ticket to the second round.

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“Halftime Adjustments”

Unrelated, but because I once answered a Super Joes question about halftime adjustments to say that there aren’t halftime adjustments according to Peyton Manning, Vic Fangio, and many others, here’s another one. Aaron Rodgers said nothing special happens at halftime.

Felt like I had to add one more testimonial.

BONUS: The Seahawks should trade for Jonathan Taylor and Quenton Nelson. Here’s why and how!

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Seaside Joe 2787

It took two years for the Rams to decide to trade Goff and two first-round picks to the Lions for Matthew Stafford, at which point they immediately won the Super Bowl.

Will Seattle wait as long if they decide to trade Darnold for an upgrade? Does an upgrade even exist?

The most obvious comparison to Stafford’s situation with the Lions in today’s NFL is Justin Herbert. What are the logistics of a Darnold-Herbert trade and would it be worth it for Seattle—assuming the Chargers would even entertain it?

Let’s start with the question that needs to be asked well before trade talks.

Do the Seahawks have a QB problem?

If Sam Darnold was stock, you wouldn’t sell him now. You’d wait until after he plays against the Cardinals in three weeks, assuming he will. Here’s every quarterback against Arizona’s defense, including Drew Lock in Week 2:

The Cardinals are allowing 37 points per game over the last four, and all four quarterbacks — including Lock — have thrown at least three touchdowns. In comparison, here are all six quarterbacks to have faced the Broncos defense this season, including Darnold on Thursday.

Five of the six quarterbacks threw interceptions and were held under 60% completions when they faced Denver’s defense:

That includes Darnold, but also Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence, and Herbert. All five struggled against the Broncos. Stafford and Darnold have two common opponents, the 49ers and Broncos:

• Stafford: 45-of-80, 545 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT, 4 sacks

• Darnold: 45-of-80, 473 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT, 10 sacks

If Darnold must be jettisoned for how he played last week, surely the reigning MVP’s job should also be in jeopardy. We could litigate the circumstances of those games, like the Rams traveling to Australia to face the 49ers, but there are always variables. Like Darnold having to go to Denver on three days rest. Stafford also has Sean McVay calling his plays, not a rookie offensive coordinator.

This is not an excuse, merely context. Prior to last Sunday’s game against the 49ers, Darnold had a passer rating of 102 and six touchdowns. Had Darnold been healthy enough to face the Cardinals, he very well could have had a passer rating over 120. Now the job is being questioned after the NFL’s version of a fraternity’s “Hell Week”.

This week feels a lot like what Darnold went through at the tail end of his short Vikings career.

• Darnold’s first 16 starts: 35 TD, 12 INT, 14-2 record, 2.9 sacks per game

• Darnold’s last 2 starts: 1 TD, 1 INT, 0-2 record, 5.5 sacks per game

That was enough for Minnesota to “fire” Darnold and promote J.J. McCarthy, with barely any noise from the media or Vikings fans that the franchise was making a mistake. I think this is probably because Sam Darnold had already been “jokified” as a draft bust with the Jets and nobody really wants to align themselves with someone like that while he’s struggling.

Darnold didn’t help his case, but every quarterback has bad games — a murderer’s row of quarterbacks has struggled against Denver’s defense this season and not all of them are on the hot seat — it just matters if he has earned enough goodwill to maintain fan support. Darnold’s last two starts in Minnesota and his two starts last week opened the door for “I told you so” so fast that the breeze would knock you on your ass.

Do we still agree that Minnesota made a mistake by parting with Darnold over two bad games or have we changed our minds because he’s had two bad games with Seattle now?

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“Pressure” is the name of Darnold’s problems again:

• Under Pressure: 23/56, 41% comp, 1 TD, 3 INT, 38.5 rating, -61.4 EPA

• No Pressure: 67/93, 72% comp, 6 TD, 4 INT, 100.8 rating, +32.9 EPA

When he’s not under pressure, Darnold ranks 12th in EPA per dropback, fifth in completion percentage over expectation, and 10th in yards per attempt.

What’s more concerning is that Darnold still has four interceptions when he’s not under pressure. The only two quarterbacks who have more are Justin Herbert (6) and Drake Maye (5). In fact, Herbert has been the worst quarterback in the league this year — statistically — from a clean pocket.

People like Herbert though, so a lot of the blame has fallen on new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Maybe that’s fair. It’s just worth noting.

Every QB against the 49ers this season:

Does Darnold have a pressure problem?

Darnold may be responsible for many of his pressures and sacks, which is certainly worth considering when assessing if he’s just in a slump against good defenses or if he will always struggle against good defenses.

A clue comes from Evan Lazar’s pre-Super Bowl film analysis of how to bother Sam Darnold and force mistakes:

“On third-and-7+, Seattle's offense ranks 31st in conversion rate at 16.8% .... As much as Darnold has improved, this offense isn't built for third-and-pass. Darnold was tied for sixth-highest turnover-worthy play rate during the regular season (3.4%), with a league-high 26 turnovers (14 INTs, 12 fumbles). If you take away Kubiak's easy buttons for Darnold off play-action and moving pockets, he can be susceptible to turning the ball over.”

Last season, the Seahawks were terrible in third-and-Long and these situations put Darnold in a position to do what he does worst.

Here are Darnold’s 2026 stats from 3rd and 7+:

• 13-of-24, 145 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4 sacks, 5 first downs

Darnold is even worse specifically from 3rd and 7-9 to go, averaging 3.2 yards per pass and posting a passer rating of 9.2. The Seahawks are 28th in third-down conversion rate and that’s largely because they have the fourth-longest distance to go (7.9 yards) on third downs.

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Kelly Mamer!

Kelly accurately predicted:

• 17 points by Denver

• Offensive POG: JSN

• Defensive POG: Nick Emmanwori

• Special teams POG: Rashid Shaheed

• Most rec yards besides JSN: Shaheed

Kelly was also really close on yards for Sam Darnold, Emanuel Wilson, and JSN. But I also have to get a shout out to Jack Wolfe, who was exactly right on Darnold’s yards (278), within 3 yards for JSN (134), and within 4 yards for Wilson (52). Mike Ney, you were within a couple of yards also.

Seaside Joe has been giving out this award for the last four weeks and every winner has reported a much higher quality of life since their victory.

Subscribe and join the next one:

How have your expectations changed?

A week ago, the Seahawks were 3-1. Now they’re 3-3. They started 2-0. Now they’ve lost three of four. How much has that changed your expectations for Seattle’s 2026 season?

On Friday, I wrote about how the Seahawks’ playoff goals should change a bit after losing to the 49ers and Broncos. Not all hope is lost.

I want to ask you to comment and share how you think your expectations have changed over the course of the season.

But first, I want to show you.

You still expect the Seahawks to win

So far, at least. We’ll see what happens prior to the Chiefs game next week. However, confidence in a Seattle win has not really dipped to this point:

% expect Seahawks win:

Week 1 Patriots: 96.8%

Week 2 Cardinals: 97.2%

Week 3 Moons: 99.5%

Week 4 Chargers: 98.9%

Week 5 49ers: 90.2%

Week 6 Broncos: 95.9%

Fans expected a rebound after Sunday. It almost happened. It will be most interesting to see how your expectations change with this 10 days of rest prior to facing the Chiefs. Your confidence hasn’t waned, but interestingly the margin of victory has.

% expect win by at least 14 points:

Week 1 Patriots: 40.7%

Week 2 Cardinals: 30.7%

Week 3 Moons: 95.4%

Week 4 Chargers: 63.3%

Week 5 49ers: 18.8%

Week 6 Broncos: 21.6%

Few fans expected an easy victory against the 49ers, but that hesitation continued prior to Thursday’s game against Denver. Is that because the game was on the road, against a good defense, on a Thursday? Those elements had to play some factor.

The median margin of victory in the past four weeks has dropped from 24 points to 14 points to 7 points in each of the past two games.

Fans expected 33 points against the Moons — and Seattle scored 31 — compared to 25 points against the Broncos. The Seahawks fell well shy of that number.

Defensive expectations have remained fairly consistent. We have built an awesome data set from the first six weeks thanks to your input, and it’s value will only grow from here on out. Especially as Seahawks fans continue to reset expectations for individual players.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is only consistent

JSN’s expected output has never dropped below 100 yards—and he has delivered triple digits five times already. However, the expectations of 78 to 87 rushing yards in Jadarian Price’s first two starts has since dropped to 60 to 80ish yards between Price and Wilson:

Confidence in Darnold is fading fast for some fans.

JSN has been the Offensive Player of the Game pick for roughly 70% of fans every week. He usually is the right answer. Smith-Njigba is carrying the offense this season and building a great case for another Offensive Player of the Year award. This time spelled correctly.

Cooper Kupp has been the most common choice for most yards by a non-JSN player (31%). It’s been a competitive category because none of the options stand out.

Byron Murphy is usually the most common choice for most sacks (31%), while Ernest Jones overtook Julian Love for player most likely to cause a turnover (27%). Murphy has led the voting for Defensive POG the most times (3), followed by two for Leonard Williams and one for Ernest Jones.

However, Emmanwori’s chunk got bigger as he got more involved:

• Week 3: 6.6%

• Week 4: 8.5%

• Week 5: 22.6%

• Week 6: 17.6%

He seems to be eating into votes for Devon Witherspoon and Leonard Williams.

Michael Dickson has won the vote for Special Teams POG every single week, but sometimes the margin is a little smaller between him and Jason Myers. Shaheed is always between 20-25% of the vote.

I gave out the awards to Emmanwori and Shaheed this week. Could that have some impact on Week 7’s expectations? We’ll see.

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Are you as high on the Seahawks as you started?

Although Seattle is 3-3, they still haven’t lost a game by more than three points and realistically all of the blame is on turnovers.

Sure, some blame can be shared. But there’s no denying the part turnovers have played in every loss and those are often fluky plays. A fraction of a knee.

This doesn’t change the fact that the Seahawks’ odds of winning the NFC West are dramatically worse than they were a week ago. This alters Seattle’s playoff path and many fans are probably more worried about Darnold’s ability to throw the ball out of harm’s way than tiebreak scenarios.

Fair.

Have your expectations changed for the season outcome?

Have they changed for individual players? Which player are you might higher on than you were six weeks ago? Lower? Who has surprised you the most?

Is Brian Fleury who you expected him to be?

Now is the time to chime:

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Seaside Joe 2784