18th pick: A trade history
If the Seahawks trade pick 18 -- up or down -- this is about what we can expect
First round trade activity has been relatively quiet over the previous two years, is that a trend or an outlier? Because there aren’t expected to be blue chip prospects who get to pick 18, many Seahawks fans are hoping that John Schneider can wiggle his way down the order to acquire even more draft capital than what Seattle already has:
Four picks on day two including 2.50, 2.52, 3.82, and 3.92
In an ideal world, Schneider would add value to the Seahawks 2026 draft class. But do we live in a world of best case scenarios? We’ll find out in less than a week.
Based on my research of the last six first rounds and trade activity that occurred around pick 18, these are the expectations fans should have if Schneider moves Seattle up or down in the first round:
If the Seahawks trade into the top 10:
They’d have to give up two day two picks or a 2026 first (most unlikely)
If the Seahawks trade up 2-5 spots:
They’d have to give up a third and a fourth (unlikely)
If the Seahawks trade down 2-5 spots:
They could receive a fourth+ (possible)
If the Seahawks trade down 6-10 spots:
They could receive a third and a fourth (is it worth it?)
If the Seahawks trade out of the first round:
They could receive an additional 2nd round pick+
What you often see on Twitter is guesses made entirely off the dome, which is what leads to so many trade rumors that wildly OVER-ESTIMATE the return value of said deal for your favorite team.
Seaside Joe tries to guess as little as possible and it’s not necessary because we have the same framework of trades that GMs will use in the draft next week:
Recent history of the same picks being traded.
Of course every pick is different, every year the goal posts move, but we can absolutely get close to reality because these are the trades that GMs will use to swing “fair” deals. Yes, if you’re a GM trading up for a QB, you might give up more than a GM trading up for a non-QB.
But fans are always going to be better served if we just temper our expectations and allow ourselves some space to still be elated if the Seahawks trade pick 18 and “only” get a late second round pick. That would be a really good return!
2019
Browns trade picks 17, 95 to Giants for Odell Beckham, Jr. and Olivier Vernon
Teams have been a lot more hesitant to trade first round picks for players in the last few years (the last time it happened was 2022) and OBJ could be partially the reason for it. The Browns gave up pick 17 and OBJ’s career cratered from there.
DK Metcalf is only one year older than OBJ was in 2019, but the return for that trade was pick 52. It’s not a total 1:1 comparison, but the value of trading a receiver seems to have decreased by a full round.
Steelers trade picks 20, 52, and 2020 3rd to Broncos for pick 10 (Devin Bush)
I was also surprised that the Steelers didn’t have to give up more to go up 10 spots in the draft for linebacker Devin Bush (a Seahawk in 2023), but the Broncos were willing to take two day two picks and they chose Noah Fant (a Seahawk right now) at pick 20.
Seahawks trade pick 21 to Packers (Darnell Savage) for picks 30, 114, and 118
To confirm this return is not an outlier, the Ravens traded the very next pick (22) to the Eagles for 25 plus a fourth and a sixth.
How many players do you think will be worth it when we get to the end of this exercise? Savage played five years in Green Bay and he’s starting for the Jaguars now, but not the most exciting get at 21. However, the Packers only had to give up two fourth round picks and they secured the player they wanted, so maybe that is worth it.
The Seahawks traded down two more times and eventually chose Marquise Blair, a safety who can’t even be compared to Savage because he barely saw the field in his career. So was moving down worth it? Blair is in the conversation as the worst player drafted in the first two rounds in 2019.