2020 Draft Re-visited: Wow, what a clunker it has turned out to be so far
2020 Draft Re-visited: Wow, what a clunker it has turned out to be so far
They said that the pandemic made the draft class hard to evaluate; they had no idea how impossible it would turn out to be
Or maybe the 2020 NFL Draft class was always doomed to be this bad.
Though they haven’t reached the end of their second seasons yet, most of the 255 players selected in the 2020 draft have underwhelmed and disappointed relative to their draft positions. Ironically, one of the few to impress is #255 himself: Mr. Irrelevant Tae Crowder was the last player selected but he has played like a first rounder for the Giants.
Especially compared to the 2020 first round, a group that has already seen no less than half the 32 picks make fans of those teams question their GM’s day one decisions.
Though Twitter was quick to praise Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert once those opinions became popular instead of underground, Justin Jefferson immediately belonged in the conversation as a top-five wide receiver, Jedrick Wills, Tristan Wirfs, and even Andrew Thomas look like long-term road blocks for their respective franchises, A.J. Terrell is the one thing that’s gone right for the defense, and linebackers Patrick Queen, Jordyn Brooks have turned corners for the Ravens and Seahawks, the second round may have had fewer bad picks than the first round.
And the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft won’t get its own documentary.
If the poor picks in rounds one and two offend you, then surely avert your eyes from the lack of day three steals that many had assumed would be the byproduct of a draft season that lacked pro days and an actual in-person draft. Outside of Crowder and truly only a few other players, rounds three and later of the 2020 NFL Draft did not yet produce many team building blocks—”key role player” or otherwise.
With two weeks left in the 2021 regular season, it’s not too soon to evaluate the players, picks, and decisions of the 2020 NFL Draft; it’s literally reaching the midway point of their rookie contracts, with only a handful of first round players looking like exceptions who will surely receive fifth-year options.
Here is a round-by-round breakdown of the 2020 NFL Draft.
“Good” and “Bad” does NOT necessarily mean “Good” and “Bad”—it’s my own rudimentary way of sorting these names out. These can often be opinion words and it shouldn’t need to be mentioned that my opinion does come into play here; however, I’m using local beat writer opinions on these players as often as it is possible for me to find said opinions. I care more about what people who write about the team think than I care about stats or grades.
Just because you are in a “Good” list, doesn’t mean you won’t be on the “Bad” list next season; as you’ll see, some players have already switched from the good list to the bad list and vice versa. This is not to label anyone a “Bust” other than the obvious cases, like Damon Arnette or Isaiah Wilson, whose careers with their original teams are already over.
Sometimes a player will land in the “Bad” list because he’s barely played and while this can sometimes be impacted by injury, that no less makes the player a pick with diminishing returns and that does matter. Don’t tell me that a player is not playing because he’s buried on a depth chart: Two seasons in, you better have demanded snaps because NFL teams can’t afford to keep any good players on the bench. “If you are undeniable, you won’t be denied.”
“Unclear” for me just means that in some cases, a player’s value is unclear. I won’t use PFF grades to evaluate offensive linemen or anyone else. I won’t do that to you, I won’t do it to the countless players and coaches who laugh off PFF grades, good or bad.
Players can fit into multiple categories; You can be “Bad” and “Injured” just as you can be “Good” and “Injured” or “Unclear and injured” or “Unclear and bad”. These are defined labels that last forever, they’re just a starting point.
First Round
Good: Joe Burrow, Andrew Thomas, Justin Herbert, Jedrick Wills, Tristan Wirfs, A.J. Terrell, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Jordyn Brooks, Patrick Queen
Bad: Tua Tagovailoa, Derrick Brown, CJ Henderson, Henry Ruggs III*, Jerry Jeudy, Damon Arnette, K’Lavon Chaisson, Jalen Reagor, Kenneth Murray, Cesar Ruiz, Jordan Love, Isaiah Wilson, Noah Igbinoghene, Jeff Gladney, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Unclear/Fine: Isaiah Simmons, Austin Jackson, Brandon Aiyuk
Injured: Chase Young (good), Jeff Okudah (bad), Mekhi Becton (unclear), Javon Kinlaw (unclear)
What went right
The worst thing the Bengals could have done is overthink the number one pick, but Joe Burrow had every right to go first overall and he’s returned from ACL surgery to lead the NFL in Y/A (8.7) and has thrown for 4,165 yards and 30 touchdowns in year two. This is also in large thanks to not overthinking the Ja’Marr Chase selection in 2021. Burrow is playing in an era where 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns isn’t as special as it used to be, and he leads the NFL in both interceptions (14) and sacks taken (47) but look at how the 2021 rookies are playing… Burrow is going to lead the Bengals to the playoffs just two years after 2-14.
The Chargers didn’t make a panic move for Tua Tagovailoa—or even Justin Herbert—they waited and landed arguably the best quarterback/player in the class.
The Giants took a lot of heat for picking Andrew Thomas over the other tackle prospects but he seemed to be the most technically sound of the four. Following a difficult rookie campaign, Thomas has ascended the rankings to be one of the better young left tackles in the league. Perhaps even the best of these four.
Jedrick Wills and Tristan Wirfs are on pace to be great too, albeit for the 2021 Pro Bowler Wirfs, he does play on the right side for Tom Brady.
A.J. Terrell was the third cornerback off the board but is the only one of six first round corners to even look like an NFL starter after two seasons.
Justin Jefferson may stand out as an elite player who entered the league in 2020, but he still had to do it after four other receivers had been selected, one of those being CeeDee Lamb.
Jordyn Brooks and Patrick Queen both struggled in coverage over the first season-and-a-half or so of their careers but the total package today for both seems to be that of a “really good NFL linebacker”.
The Colts traded a first round pick for DeForest Buckner and San Francisco used that selection on Javon Kinlaw. Two seasons later, Buckner remains an unstoppable force of awesome and Kinlaw is just another guy; Tampa Bay also traded up one spot with the 49ers so that they could secure Pro Bowl tackle Tristan Wirfs, so they did something good too.
The Steelers may not have known they’d be this lucky but they got out of the 2020 first round when they traded the pick for Minkah Fitzpatrick in 2019. The Bears got out when they traded for Khalil Mack, a pick that the Raiders used on Damon Arnette. The Rams got out when they traded for Jalen Ramsey, a pick that the Jaguars used on K’Lavon Chaisson. (The Bills got out when they traded for Stefon Diggs, but Minnesota used that pick on Jefferson, so they’re fine.)
What went wrong?
Two things have to be true at the same time for a cornerback to go third overall in any given year: The CB has to be an exceptionally rare prospect and the class has to be a little weak at the top. Though Burrow and Chase Young were locked into the top-two, the fact that Andrew Thomas went fourth kind of emphasizes the point that there were no sure things after Young. Okudah played poorly as a 21-year-old rookie and he’s spent year two on injured reserve.
There’s only one way to explain the Tua Tagovailoa infatuation: far too many NFL draft analysts are die hard college football fans. Tagovailoa had way too many red flags for me to think of him as a first rounder but it was easy to find people who’d tell you that Tua should go over not only Herbert, but Burrow.
Anyone who still says that Tua is good…they’re simply justifying their draft beliefs by cherrypicking random stats (like completion percentage) and anecdotes (“Miami is winning!”) that fit a narrative. However, if the Dolphins aren’t searching for a new starting quarterback in 2022 or 2023, that’ll be the only test that matters. Tua looks destined for a Marcus Mariota path in the NFL.
C.J. Henderson was traded to the Panthers after less than two seasons; Damon Arnette was released by the Raiders after career 13 games; Isaiah Wilson forced his exit out of Tennessee after three snaps; Henry Ruggs and Jeff Gladney were both released by their respective teams following separate off-field incidents and neither of them were playing especially well prior to those incidents.
Players who could be released or traded for pennies on the dollar in 2022: K’Lavon Chaisson (2 career sacks), Jalen Reagor (676 career yards), Kenneth Murray (some think he should be benched now), Cesar Ruiz (him too), Jordan Love (what little we’ve seen hasn’t been good), and Noah Igbinoghene (exclusively a special teamer in Miami).
Mekhi Becton may turn into a great tackle for the Jets but an injury opened the door for the team to start George Fant on the left side and it seems many now see Fant as the future at the position; with some thought given to New York drafting another tackle (like Evan Neal) with a top-10 pick in 2022. Becton might have to slide inside.
You can quibble that someone like Derrick Brown or Jerry Jeudy is “fine” and that they aren’t playing in great situations but I can only go off of absolutes and expectations. Is Brown “fine” for a defensive tackle drafted seventh overall? Is Jeudy “fine” after dropping 10 passes as a rookie and totaling just 437 yards in nine games?
Even Chase Young has to answer for more than just tearing his ACL this year. Young was billed as an edge rushing prospect thought to be at least as good as Myles Garrett, and yet he had 1.5 sacks and four QB hits in nine games this season. Garrett dealt with injuries early on in his career and still had 20.5 sacks and 47 QB hits through his first two seasons.
The second round of this draft may not have Burrow, Jefferson, Herbert, Wirfs, and Terrell, but overall teams did much better on a pick-by-pick basis and the group could still produce the Offensive AND Defensive Players of the Year in 2021.
Second Round
Good: Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, D’Andre Swift, Xavier McKinney, Kyle Duggar, Robert Hunt, Jonathan Taylor, Antoine Winfield, Jr., Darrell Taylor, Chase Claypool, Trevon Diggs, Ezra Cleveland, Kristian Fulton, Jeremy Chinn
Bad: Yetur Gross-Matos, K.J. Hamler, Marlon Davis, A.J. Epenesa, Denzel Mims, Josh Uche, Willie Gay
Unclear/Fine: Ross Blacklock, Laviska Shenault, Cole Kmet, Grant Delpit, Jaylon Johnson, Jalen Hurts, Raekwon Davis, Van Jefferson, A.J. Dillon
Injured: Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins
What went right?
Justin Jefferson should have gone in the top-five and Tee Higgins should have gone in the top-10. Imagine Jefferson on the Lions, Higgins on the Jaguars. And maybe Michael Pittman on the Raiders. Pittman has emerged this year with 971 yards on 116 targets, while Higgins 583 yards in the last five games alone; nearly more than Reagor’s had in his entire career. Chase Claypool got a tough draw with Ben Roethlisberger as his QB, but still has 806 yards on 89 targets this season.
RB injuries are nothing new but this group seems to have been hit harder than most, and still D’Andre Swift had 984 total yards in 11 games this year. He seems good, when healthy, as do Cam Akers and JK Dobbins.
Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in the NFL and I owe Colts GM Chris Ballard a few apologies; there will always be whiffs but 2020 seems to be his second super class in three years (following 2018’s Quenton Nelson/Darius Leonard/Braden Smith group).
The second round defensive backs really shame the first round: McKinney, Duggar, Winfield (Super Bowl winner—and he was integral), Fulton, and Chinn make a special group on their own, but also Trevon Diggs leads the NFL with 11 interceptions this season. Diggs may also be a sieve on some plays but would Detroit trade out Okudah for a sieve with 11 interceptions?
What went wrong?
There are a lot of players who exist in that “middle ground” of value evaluation. The fans wouldn’t want to necessarily get rid of many of these players but these names also only have two years left on the contract and the question needs to be asked next season: “Are they capable of starting now?” Because if they aren’t, fans and coaches alike tend to get super antsy about seeing them on the roster every day.
Jalen Hurts presents the clearest case of this: opinions are split right down the middle on whether or not the Eagles can end their search for a QBOTF. He hasn’t been a good passer, yet he has 740 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns, and Philadelphia has won five of their last seven games. What do I think? Well, I don’t think that it matters all that much to beat the Falcons, Panthers, Lions, Broncos, Saints, Washington, and Giants… not if you want to be the franchise’s answer to reaching the Super Bowl.
Others, like Denzel Mims, have been so bad that their mere presence on a field on Sundays is surprising; despite this, fans all over the NFL will pine for Mims when he’s released next year. Denzel Mims has played in 98 snaps over the last four weeks, he’s been targeted seven times, and he’s caught one pass for four yards.
Third Round
Good: Logan Wilson, Damien Lewis, Justin Madubuike, Alex Highsmith
Steal: Jonah Jackson, Jonathan Greenard
Bad: Julian Okwara, Josh Jones, Zack Baun, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Jabari Zuniga, Lynn Bowden, Bryan Edwards, Terrell Lewis, Zack Moss, Devin Asiasi, Devin Duvernay*, Darrynton Evans, Josiah Deguara, Jacob Phillips, Malik Harrison, Matt Peart, Tanner Muse, Dalton Keene, Davion Taylor, Terrell Burgess, Adam Trautman, Tyre Phillips
Unclear/Fine: Antonio Gibson, Ashtyn Davis, Brandon Jones, DaVon Hamilton, Matt Hennessy, Lloyd Cushenberry, Jordan Elliott, Cameron Dantzler, Lucas Niang, McTelvin Agim
Injured: Michael Ojemudia, Neville Gallimore, Julian Blackmon, Anfernee Jennings
What went right?
I actually think I was being generous with most of these names in the “good” and “steal” categories, but I had to find some names. The Texans didn’t have a first round pick in 2020 and yet they managed to find Jonathan Greenard, who has eight sacks in 10 games this season; he is tied with Chase Young and D.J. Wonnum with the most career sacks (9) in the class so far.
You could push some of these players up to the “Good” category or believe that they will get there next season based on some recent evidence (I especially like Lucas Niang and McTelvin Agim) but there are no emphatic answers here. Antonio Gibson has had opportunities, and maybe he’s helped your fantasy team, but he also averages 3.8 YPC and has six fumbles this year.
What went wrong?
A lot. Many teams would be just as well off today without their 2020 third round picks.
Michael Ojemudia (77th overall) was likely saved from being released by going on IR; Jabari Zuniga (79th) was relinquished to the JETS practice squad; Lynn Bowden (80th) was traded prior to his ROOKIE season; Anfernee Jennings (87th) likely a similar IR story to Ojemudia; the Patriots also found a pair of third round tight ends in Devin Asiasi (91st) and Dalton Keene (101st) who look destined to be ex-Pats in 2022; Tanner Muse (100th) is another Mike Mayock failure, now on the Seahawks; and the list of 2020 third rounders to part ways with their original franchise is sure to grow in the coming months…
Fourth Round
Good/Helping: John Simpson, Leki Fotu, Ben Bartch, Charlie Heck, Gabe Davis, Jaylinn Hawkins, Kevin Dotson, L’Jarius Sneed
Steal: D.J. Wonnum, Tyler Biadasz
Bad/Buried: Akeem Davis-Gaither, Saahdiq Charles, Solomon Kindley, Joshua Kelley, Mykal Walker, La’Mical Perine, Logan Stenberg, Jacob Eason, Reggie Robinson, Anthony McFarland, James Morgan, K’Von Wallace, Cameron Clark, James Lynch, Rashard Lawrence, Troy Dye, Colby Parkinson, Brycen Hopkins, Josiah Scott, Amik Robertson, Shaquille Quarterman, John Reid, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Ben Bredeson, DeeJay Dallas
Unclear/Fine: Darnay Holmes, Harrison Bryant, Albert Okwuegbunam
Injured: Troy Pride, Jack Driscoll
What went right?
The Vikings went from one of the worst teams in the NFL at forcing pressure on the quarterback to ranking first in that category in 2021, and a lot of that has to do with Wonnum. He also had three sacks against the Bears two weeks ago, so some of it has to do with Justin Fields.
Biadasz, like Creed Humphrey this year, is a center prospect who should’ve heard his name called on day one.
Overall, it seems offensive line and secondary were strong groups for the fourth round, while Bills receiver Gabe Davis has more career yards than Ruggs and Reagor—he’s catching up quickly to Jeudy and Brandon Aiyuk. Don’t attribute that solely to injuries and availability; Davis has to get Josh Allen’s attention away from Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley for his opportunities.
What went wrong?
The standard for “wrong” and “bad” changes from the first round to the fourth round. We know that. So I’m not asking any of these players to be starters in Year Two necessarily—it’s obviously a bonus and a reward when they are, in the case of someone like Charlie Heck or Tyler Biadasz. Even with such a low bad as: “Contributes on special teams”, “is expected to grow into a starting role one day”, many of these fourth round names are just as valuable as the players who didn’t get to hear their name called out during the draft.
10 or fewer career appearances: Stenberg, Eason, Robinson II, Morgan, Clark, Hopkins, Gandy-Golden. In the case of someone like Brycen Hopkins, a “polished” tight end prospect from an NFL family (father was a Pro Bowl left tackle) who has had every opportunity to move up the TE depth chart with the Rams, there’s nothing unclear about his situation: the Rams prefer undrafted free agent Kendall Blanton. That’s not good for your future NFL prospects.
When I say “bad” I could just mean, “Is the team just as well off with a replacement player?” The Seahawks drafted Colby Parkinson and DeeJay Dallas in the fourth round; have Parkinson or Dallas moved the needle one iota for Seattle in the past two seasons? Hold out hope, sure, that’s fine, this is not a crystal ball article, but I can only go off of what’s been proven in the league, and during regular season games. It’s not even about “good pick” or “bad pick”—it’s the fourth round! Sometimes a good pick is the shot at a high-risk, high-reward prospect who immediately flops. This article is about one thing: How’s the 2020 draft been going so far? So far, not that good.
Fifth Round-Seventh Round
Though my cutoff is arbitrary, and somewhat based on my current exhaustion with this article, at some point I can’t call picks “good” and “bad” when the expectations are so low. Instead, I wanted to find out how many late “steals” there have been so far with the 2020 draft… the whole messed up draft process last year was thought to potentially mean that a lot of diamonds would emerge from the rough.
That has not been the case. Of 109 players drafted after the fourth round, only four have been starters since their rookie season, and only another eight have registered one season with at least nine starts. It’s early in their careers but the question for me isn’t “Is it a normal 5th-7th round?” Because of the pandemic-impacted draft season, the question is “Is it an unusual 5th-7th round?”
No, not really.
Steals: CB Bryce Hall (Jets), CB Kindle Vildor (Bears), WR Darnell Mooney (Bears), DE Michael Danna (Chiefs), OL Michael Onwenu (Patriots), DT Bravvion Roy (Panthers), WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (Browns), K Tyler Bass (Bills), P Braden Mann (Jets), OL Jon Runyan Jr (Packers), S Jordan Fuller (Rams), WR Quez Watkins (Eagles), S Kamren Curl (WFT), CB Dane Jackson (Bills), S Chris Jackson (Titans)
Explanation
I don’t want anyone to feel left out, I don’t think that the job of identifying “good picks” and “less than good picks” from 2020 is an easy one. Take Alton Robinson, for example. Is Alton Robinson a “steal”? You might think so, or you might believe that he’s shown enough to believe that one day he will be a “steal” but what proof do you have of that today? Robinson has essentially been healthy for two seasons, but he didn’t increase his reps this year and he has just one sack and nine pressures over 352 snaps. That might be the fault of Ken Norton, Jr. but I’m not here to assign blame, I’m here to go off of what is as close to “obvious” as I can get and there’s nothing that I’d say is obvious about Alton Robinson’s future with Seattle. There’s nothing on Robinson’s resume that screams “steal” as he looks like a lot of other fifth round picks.
But could you say that about some of the names I have on the “steal” list above? Sure, you could, I think. I’m not that worried about whether or not there could be an argument one way or another…as few of those names above seem to be sure things.
Is it that surprising to find a good kicker or a good punter on day three? No, but Bass and Mann are at least good players at their respective positions already.
UDFAs
Best of the bunch: QB Tyler Huntley, S Nigel Warrior, WR Kendall Hinton, K Rodrigo Blankenship, RB James Robinson, WR Marquez Callaway, RB JaMycal Hasty
List is incomplete… This is a difficult one for me to really evaluate because I can only look at a list of names and then go off of my memory from the last two years. I’ve read a lot of training camp reports, so I know a lot of the UDFA names from that, but it is difficult for me to parse out everyone and I don’t have the benefit of stats in front of me.
However, we all know that Huntley, Robinson, and Callaway have been in NFL news for their efforts. Hinton too, though not for the reasons that he had expected or maybe hoped for, QBing for the Broncos in an emergency situation last season.
Overall, this seems like a normal amount of UDFA talent. UDFAs make up a big chunk of NFL rosters and every so often a player like Huntley or Robinson sneaks by every team.