2022 NFL Draft QB rankings: Re-visiting Week 1 QB order to today; who goes in 1st round?
A look back and a look ahead with Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, and Carson Strong
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I posted my first 2022 QB Rankings of the season on September 6, and here are some highlights from back then:
“There is no Trevor Lawrence in this draft class” - Still true
“But there might turn out to be a Joe Burrow or Zach Wilson” - We didn’t see that, but Kenny Pickett’s narrative could turn that way during draft season
“My number one all year long has been Grayson McCall” - McCall led the nation in many key passing categories and after entering the year on practically nobody else’s radar, McCall is now listed as the 102nd best prospect overall by NFLMockDraftDatabase. That’s a climb similar to what I predicted but now I believe he will return to school, compete for the Heisman trophy in 2022, and work his way into the top-five conversation for 2023.
Re-Visiting My First QB Top-10
As to the rankings themselves from September 6, it’s kind of inconsequential. I’m not trying to avoid answering for those rankings, it’s just that I believe that the number of first round QBs in 2022 will be far more reflective of the weakness of the draft class as a whole rather than a sign of strength in the QB class; there are no QBs in the 2022 class that I believe deserve to be first round picks in an average year from the aughts, other than maybe Kenny Pickett.
Even Kenny Pickett is going to be a first round reach.
Back then, I had Pickett in my Honorable Mentions list, which isn’t too bad given that the senior had yet to produce a quality season during his first three years as Pitt’s starting quarterback. Here is my top-10 from then:
1 Grayson McCall
I feel good about this.
2 Carson Strong
Strong may still be a top-four QB prospect in the 2022 class.
3 Desmond Ridder
I think Ridder should at least have a long career as an NFL backup, journeyman.
4 Malik Willis
This remains a reasonable ranking for Willis, who really should not be a first round pick—but if we learned anything from Trey Lance and Justin Fields, it’s that some teams are obsessed with the concept of a dual threat QB and it may not matter. One issue for being a “dual threat” is that you still need to be able to PASS.
5 Kedon Slovis
There are rumors that despite his poor play, Slovis will test the 2022 draft. It might not be the worst choice, as Slovis likely has no future at USC and a transfer may not help his stock.
6 Matt Corral
Corral has become the consensus number one, but I’m going to continue to disagree with that assessment.
7 Phil Jurkovec
Jurkovec has some traits going for him, but he missed most of the season with an injury and when he returned for Boston College, he was about as bad as you could fear. He will return to school.
8 Sam Howell
Some still have Howell as a top-20 pick, to which I can only say, “Wow”.
9 Spencer Rattler
Never a fan.
10 Taulia Tagovailoa
He could be a good breakout candidate for 2022.
Mock Draft Database
The consensus top-six QBs for the 2022 class at NFL Mock Draft Database are as follows:
1 Matt Corral (7th overall)
2 Kenny Pickett (18th)
3 Sam Howell (26th)
4 Malik Willis (27th)
5 Carson Strong (39th)
6 Desmond Ridder (41st)
The database then lists McCall, Bailey Zappe, Brennan Armstrong, and Sam Hartman as the next four, ranging from the 102nd to the 149th overall prospects.
This leaves open the possibility of five or six first round QBs, which should produce at least four or five first round QB busts, in my opinion. Something that could give us a little more insight into the 2022 NFL QB prospects is their home/road splits. Playing at home in college football may be an even bigger advantage than it is in the NFL.
2022 NFL Draft QBs home/road splits
Matt Corral
Home: 147/208, 70.7%, 1,985 yards, 15 TD, 1 INT, 173.7
Away: 89/138, 64.5%, 967 yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, 128.6
Notes: Someone I respect very much just revealed that he has Corral as his NUMBER TWO OVERALL prospect. Corral did not rank in the top-60 for road passer rating.
Corral’s season game log only has two cases of him throwing more than two touchdown passes: five against Austin Peay and three against Tulane. Outside of those two games, Corral had 12 touchdowns and four interceptions over 10 contests. How many first round QBs in the last 10 years were that unsuccessful at scoring?
Kenny Pickett
Home: 189/274, 69%, 2,564 yards, 25 TD, 6 INT, 173.3
Away: 125/190, 65.8%, 1,502 yards, 15 TD, 1 INT, 157.2
Notes: By comparison, Pickett had eight games in 2021 with at least three TD passes, five with at least four TD passes.
Sam Howell
Home: 103/166, 62%, 1,553 yards, 16 TD, 3 INT, 168.8
Away: 77/122, 63%, 992 yards, 5 TD, 6 INT, 135.1
Notes: I don’t think it’s unfair to say that people who are advising Howell to enter the 2022 NFL Draft might be doing him a major career disservice. I believe that it is possible that Howell could crumble during the pre-draft process and fall to the end of day two. Go back to school.
Malik Willis
Home: 110/188, 58.5%, 1,455 yards, 14 TD, 6 INT, 141.7
Away: 84/127, 66%, 1,171 yards, 10 TD, 6 INT, 160.1
Notes: A good draft range for Malik Willis should be ~50th.
Carson Strong
Home: 193/276, 70%, 2,235 yards, 21 TD, 5 INT, 159.4
Away: 174/247, 70.4%, 1,951 yards, 15 TD, 3 INT, 154.4
Notes: Strong may work himself into the “safest” prospect in the 2022 draft and get drafted in the 20-30 range.
Desmond Ridder
Home: 112/163, 68.7%, 1,675 yards, 18 TD, 2 INT, 189
Away: 122/192, 63.5%, 1,515 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT, 144.2
Notes: He’s a totally decent quarterback. Good enough for the third round.
Sam Hartman
Home: 124/207, 60%, 1,707 yards, 14 TD, 5 INT, 146.7
Away: 131/216, 60.6%, 2,004 yards, 20 TD, 5 INT, 164.5
Notes: Some like rooting for Hartman because he’s a Wake Forest QB prospect, but the brief talk of him being a first round pick has dissipated.
My current top-5 QBs for the 2022 NFL Draft
If he declares for the 2022 NFL Draft, Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall would be on this list. If Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud (who had outstanding home/road splits) were eligible, they would be 1-2 on this list. Instead, this is the list we’ve got for the 2022 draft and it’s only because the (rest of the class looks weak + reaching desperation levels at the position) that they could all go in the first round.
1. Kenny Pickett, Pitt
Projected draft position: NY Giants, 6th overall
With two picks in the top-10, New York can take a chance on Pickett. They could likely trade Daniel Jones for a third or fourth round pick. Former Giants OC Mike Shula is currently an assistant on the Denver Broncos, so if that coaching staff isn’t eradicated at season’s end, Jones-to-Denver makes sense for at least a couple of reasons.
Pickett would be going to a Giants team that at least needs to hire a new OC, one who will probably align with his talents. He’s drawn comparisons to Kirk Cousins and the Vikings staff is another one that could soon become coaching free agents.
2. Matt Corral, Ole Miss
Projected draft position: Philadelphia Eagles, 13th overall
I don’t think that Matt Corral is a typical “top-15 QB” but Philadelphia has three first round picks and Jalen Hurts won’t be the answer for Nick Sirianni’s offense. I could see the Eagles using one of their three (this would be the pick they got from Miami) selections on a quarterback and Corral is the best available here.
With teams like the Broncos, Raiders, Steelers, and Football selecting in the range just after this, the Eagles would pull the trigger on Corral. That is unless a team pulls a “Bears’ reach for Fields” and trades ahead of Philadelphia, in which case I think they might be doing the Eagles a favor.
3. Carson Strong, Nevada
Projected draft position: Detroit Lions, 24th overall
Using the pick they received from the Rams for Matthew Stafford, the Lions take a shot at a quarterback who they hope can replace the quarterback who they received in the Matthew Stafford trade. No QB deserves to go in the top-three, so the Lions shouldn’t reach. This pick carries a much better “worst case/best case” scenario than passing up Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, or Kyle Hamilton for a mediocre QB prospect. If Strong isn’t that impressive, what’s the big deal? The Lions can draft Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud in 2023 and flip Strong for a day two pick. We’ve seen it before.
As you can see, Carson Strong’s status on my board didn’t change much despite a quiet season by Carson Strong. Nobody else had a loud enough year.
4. Sam Howell, UNC
Projected draft position: Baltimore Ravens, 58th overall
If he drops this far, no real harm or foul for Sam Howell. I don’t think the Ravens are going to commit to Lamar Jackson and I don’t think Malik Willis is a natural fit for Baltimore because what’s the endgame? That you hope he turns into another Lamar Jackson: an exciting running QB with a well below average passing game who forces a change again in four years?
5. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
Projected draft position: Seattle Seahawks, 70th overall
This pick wouldn’t even necessarily be about developing Ridder as a franchise QB. The Seahawks need a quality backup to Russell Wilson and Ridder could immediately step in for that role. The fact that he might become a starter eventually after 2-3 years of sitting behind one of football’s best quarterback is a bonus that you won’t get in free agency.
Bonus
6. Malik Willis, Liberty
Projected draft position: Saints, fourth round
The thing about Willis is that he’s not a “young, raw prospect” anymore. Willis’s career started in 2017 with Auburn. He has torched some awful defenses, he makes too many errors, and he likely needs 2-3 years of refinement before he can even consider being ready for the NFL. But in that time, Sean Payton might relish the opportunity to give Willis a few offensive snaps while simultaneously developing him behind the scenes.
I think New Orleans makes a heavy play for a QB upgrade in FA/trade, hangs onto Taysom Hill, and Willis could serve as QB3.
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