2022 NFL Draft QB rankings: Top-10 prospects heading into Week 4
2022 NFL Draft QB rankings: Top-10 prospects heading into Week 4
Malik Willis rising, Spencer Rattler falling through three games
I expect my rankings to change considerably from the first edition to the last edition, and obviously I can’t predict in what ways that will happen, but this is really still the beginning of our journey of scouting talent in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Don’t forget to read the QB Super Post for reference.
QB Rankings
1. Grayson McCall, Coastal vs Buffalo (13/19, 232 yards, 3 TD/1 INT, 11 rush/12y)
Previous: 1
As I noted after the game, I was pretty upset with dropped passes by Coastal’s receivers on Saturday. Though I respect the receivers there, it was frustrating to see multiple long touchdown opportunities and a key first down slip out of the hands of players who were looking ahead too soon.
And he still went 13 of 19 with three touchdowns. McCall does struggle with fumbles, which can be expected when there’s so much responsibility with having the ball in your hands on so many running plays of a triple-option offense, and those problems continued against Buffalo.
Season stats: 46/59, 78%, 739 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT, 213.3 rating, 21 rush, 52 yards, 1 TD
McCall ranks 1st in the nation in completion rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt.
2. Malik Willis, Liberty vs Old Dominion (21/28, 242y, 4 TD, 0 INT, 9 rush/77y, 2 TD)
Previous: 4
I move Willis up two spots because without anybody standing out other than McCall, why not go to the player with the most enticing upside? (And also standing out.) He’s like Derrick Henry with a cannon.
Season stats: 49/69, 71%, 613 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT, 9 Y/A, 34 rush, 225 yards, 4 TD
3. Carson Strong, Nevada vs K-State (27/40, 262y, 1 TD/1 INT)
Previous ranking: 2
He does seem a bit statuesque and slow. Is a team like the Falcons going to want to draft Carson Strong over a player who has a bit more improvisation abilities? Not a great showing in Week 3 for Strong. Really I think the point here that I’m taking away from the top-5 QBs is that the 2022 draft class needs a lot of refinement before any of them are considered locks for the first round.
Here’s a nice deep shot by Carson Strong to get warmed up late in the first quarter.
Season stats: 83/122, 68%, 955 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT
4. Sam Howell, UNC vs Virginia (14/21, 307y, 5 TD/1 INT, 15 rush, 112y)
Previous ranking: 7
Both Virginia QB Brennan Armstrong and Howell put on a show on Saturday, combining for 861 yards of passing and nine touchdowns through the air in a 59-38 win for the Tar Heels. You could argue that the left-handed Armstrong was the superior QB on the day (and if he’s not in my top-10 now, he could be soon) but Howell did good things too and the NFL is already super interested in Howell as it is.
I want to make sure that I’m giving Howell a fair shake and not holding it against him that he has stolen the spotlight away from Grayson McCall (they went to rival high schools and were in the same recruiting class) or that I’m not just being an anti-frontrunner. Before things get too crazy with my rankings, I am going to give Howell a fair bump up and see how it plays out, but he still needs better games against better opponents.
Season stats: 52/82, 63.4%, 867 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT, 10.6 Y/A, 39 rush, 251 yards, 2 TD
5. Matt Corral, Ole Miss vs Tulane (23/31, 74%, 335y, 3 TD/0 INT, 13 rush, 68y, 4 TD)
Previous ranking: 5
Another case of me attempting not to be a hater, but it is still TULANE. Last season, Corral had six interceptions against Arkansas and five interceptions against LSU. Let’s wait and see how he performs against some better teams, but certainly Corral is doing everything asked of him and more.
Season stats: 66/96, 69%, 997 yards, 9 TD, 0 INT, 10.4 Y/A, 33 rush, 158 yards, 5 TD
6. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati vs Indiana (20/36, 210y, 1 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush, 45y, 1 TD)
Previous ranking: 3
It’s not that I’m souring on Ridder, I’m just showing a bit of favoritism to a few of his counterparts at this juncture. He’s got Notre Dame next (on October 2nd, following a bye week) and that’ll be his best test of the entire season. Let’s see what happens that day.
Season stats: 54/83, 65%, 748 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 9 Y/A, 20 rush, 72 yards, 2 TD
7. Kenny Pickett, Pitt vs Western Michigan (23/31, 382y, 6 TD, 1 INT, 10 rush, 49y)
Last week: N/R
I watched all of Western Michigan vs Pitt hoping that either Pickett or Kaleb Eleby would make an argument for the 10-spot in my rankings. Before halftime, I felt I was at least watching a better QB prospect than Spencer Rattler has been so far this season.
I liked some of what I saw from Eleby, but Pitt tackling like this helped him out in the end:
Pickett definitely didn’t leave the game without having made a few costly mistakes, but he is a sneaky-good rusher with the ball in his hands and he has a ridiculously strong arm and seems to have had excellent field vision against Western Michigan, finding open receivers way downfield and accounting for six touchdown passes.
He had a pretty unimpressive career going into 2021, but so did Joe Burrow up until his senior campaign with LSU. Pickett gets a cake walk against New Hampshire this Saturday. His biggest test comes against Clemson on October 23rd; Pickett had four picks against the Tigers in 2020.
Season stats: 74/104, 71%, 939 yards, 10 TD, 1 INT, 9 Y/A, 26 rush, 107 yards, 1 TD
8. Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma vs Nebraska (24/34, 70%, 214y, 1 TD/0 INT, 6 rush, 35y, 1 TD)
Last week: 8
Another QB who faced Tulane, except that Rattler had one touchdown and two picks, so Corral wins that comparison, too. At this point, I’m just not ready to place any of the other QBs above Rattler, but it may only be a matter of time; Baker Mayfield dominated with Oklahoma; Kyler Murray dominated with Oklahoma; Jalen Hurts dominated with Oklahoma; Rattler’s in his second year with the offense and he’s only “fine” with Oklahoma.
If you subtract his 5 TD performance against Western Carolina, Rattler has two passing touchdowns in two games. With OKLAHOMA. They might not have as good of a supporting cast as they used to but why isn’t Rattler picking apart some of these other defenses?
Season stats: 74/99, 74.7%, 761 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 18 rush, 71 yards, 2 TD
9. Kedon Slovis, USC vs Washington State (Injured)
Last week: 6
Slovis only got off two passes before exiting with injury and being replaced by true freshman Jaxson Dart — and if it weren’t for Dart suffering a knee injury that has him “day to day” in practice this week, Slovis might be headed to the bench. USC’s interim head coach noted that the QBs were now in a competition.
Dart completed 30 passes for 391 yards, four touchdowns and two picks against the Cougs; Slovis has 487 yards and three touchdowns on 80 attempts this year.
But let’s not forget that Slovis was the “Jaxson Dart” not long ago, tossing 30 touchdowns as a freshman in 2019. USC faces Oregon State, Colorado, and Utah over the next three weeks.
10. Brennan Armstrong, Virginia vs USC (39/54, 554y, 4 TD/1 INT)
Last week: N/R
When deciding on who to put at 10, I was considering Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who I had at 10 in my original QB rankings. Then I saw that he just played against Illinois and had a very good game: 32/43, 350 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT.
Then I looked at who Illinois played the previous week and how that player did. That quarterback was Brennan Armstrong and here is what he did against the Illini: 27/36, 405 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT. He even rushed for more yards against Illinois (31) than Tagovailoa did (25).
Over his last two games, Armstrong has 959 passing yards on 90 attempts with nine touchdowns and two picks against Illinois and North Carolina. I will almost always prefer beating up a bad FBS defense to beating up a bad one in the FCS.
Since I already shared the UNC-Virginia game with Howell, here’s the Virginia-Illinois game:
Season stats: 87/121, 72%, 1,298 yards, 11 TD, 2 INT, 10.7 Y/A
Dropped out:
Dillon Gabriel, UCF (Broken Clavicle)
Phil Jurkovec, Boston College (Broken Hand)
The next 15 (not in any order)
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland vs Illinois (32/43, 350y, 1 TD, 0 INT, 25 rush y)
Tanner McKee, Stanford vs Vanderbilt (19/29, 218y, 2 TD, 0 INT, 1 rush TD)
Jayden Daniels, ASU vs BYU (21/29, 265 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT)
Jake Haener, Fresno State vs UCLA (39/53, 455y, 2 TD, 1 INT)
There’s no question that Haener is one of the top-10 stars in college football right now and we’ve been tracking him here since the start of the season. His fourth quarter performance against the Bruins is something that will go down in Fresno State lore for all times. Do I think that he’s big enough to play in the NFL? Will he stick it out inside of a collapsing pocket in the NFL? More questions to answer but Haener, the former UW Husky, is passing all the tests early in the year.
Really, a must-watch game.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA vs Fresno State (14/24, 278y, 3 TD/0 INT, 13 rush, 67y)
DTR is worth watching in that game too and he might be a better NFL prospect on top of that. Over his last two games against LSU and Fresno State, DTR has over 500 yards and six touchdowns on only 40 attempts.
Brock Purdy, Iowa State vs UNLV (21/24, 288 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 33 rush y)
Will Levis, Kentucky vs Chattanooga (23/35, 254 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT)
Bo Nix, Auburn vs Penn State (21/37, 185 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT)
“Is Bo Nix an NFL QB?” is one of the most common 2022 draft questions and so far everything is pointing to: No.
Chase Garbers, Cal vs Sacramento State (22/34, 288y, 2 TD, 1 INT, 4 rush/68y 1 TD)
Jack Coan, Notre Dame vs Purdue (15/31, 223y, 2 TD, 0 INT)
D’Eriq King, Miami vs Michigan State (38/59, 388y, 2 TD, 2 INT, 12 rush, 7y)
Tanner Mordecai, SMU vs Louisiana Tech (36/48, 395y, 5 TD, 0 INT, 51 rush yards)
Mordecai leads the NCAA with 16 TDs and the former Oklahoma backup is at least attempting to make a case that he’s a better prospect than Rattler, the quarterback who beat him for the Sooners’ job.
*Dustin Crum, Kent State vs Iowa (16/23, 185y, 1 TD, 0 INT)
*Aqeel Glass, Alabama A&M vs Bethune-Cookman (22/35, 234y, 2 TD, 0 INT)
*Jack Plummer, Purdue vs Notre Dame (25/36, 187y, 1 TD, 0 INT)
*First appearance in top-25
And 5 More…
Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky (BYE)
Payton Thorne, Michigan State vs Miami (18/31, 261y, 4 TD, 0 INT)
Thorne, a redshirt sophomore, ranks sixth in the nation in AY/A and has nine touchdowns and no picks.
Levi Lewis, Louisiana vs Ohio (21/29, 212y, 1 TD/1 INT, 12 rush, 61y)
He’s 5’10, he’s a lefty, and yes, he can lift it when he wants to for a deep bomb. Is he an NFL prospect? The next Kyler Murray? Don’t think we’re witnessing another Murray but I’m past the top-25 prospects at the position, why not spend some time looking at unconventional choices at this point? Lewis is a redshirt senior and he held his own against Texas in Week 1 too.
J.T. Daniels, Georgia vs South Carolina (23/31, 303y, 3 TD, 1 INT)
Logan Bonner, Utah State vs Air Force (21/34, 253y, 2 TD, 1 INT)
Off:
Layne Hatcher, Arkansas State
Jared Bernhardt, Ferris State
Bernhardt, the former lacrosse star who is playing football for the first time since 2015, took last weekend off. The Ferris State head coach is rotating QBs.
Exciting Week 4 QB vs QB matchups:
UCLA vs Stanford (9/25, 12 PM PT)
Maryland vs Kent State (9/25, 12:30)
Not a very good week for QB vs QB. You can also try Western Kentucky vs Indiana (Michael Penix fell out of my top-30 though) or USC vs Oregon State.