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2022 NFL Draft - QB Super Post

A place to sort out my thoughts on quarterbacks as we prepare for the 2022 draft

Sep 21, 2021

I need a place to sort out all of my 2022 NFL Draft / College Football notes and I think going BY POSITION will help me start to do that. Expect this to be regularly updated. I’m starting with the QB position and will branch out to other positions soon.

My Latest Top-10 QB ranking is here.

2022 NFL Draft QB rankings

Yahoo! Sports (Week 4)

1 Matt Corral, Ole Miss

2 Sam Howell, UNC

3 Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma

4 Malik Willis, Liberty

5 Carson Strong, Nevada

Walter Football (9/16/21)

1 Spencer Rattler

2 Matt Corral

3 Malik Willis

4 Jayden Daniels, ASU

5 Aqeel Glass, Alabama A&M

ProFootballFocus (June, 2021)

1 Spencer Rattler

2 Sam Howell

3 Malik Willis

4 Kedon Slovis, USC

5 Carson Strong

Sports Illustrated

1 Spencer Rattler

2 Carson Strong

3 Malik Willis

4 Sam Howell

5 Kedon Slovis

Sporting News (Sept 2021)

1 Spencer Rattler

2 Malik Willis

3 Sam Howell

4 Kedon Slovis

5 Carson Strong

ProFootballNetwork (May 2021)

1 Sam Howell

2 Spencer Rattler

3 Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

4 Kedon Slovis

5 Malik Willis

2022 QB Consensus (and why there will be plenty of first round QBs again)

The general feeling has been that there is no sure thing in the 2022 draft class at quarterback and by that I mean, no sure bet to go first overall. Or even if there will be a quarterback selected in the top-10.

However, there’s probably at least an 80-percent change that a QB will go in the top-five at the latest, because teams have been drafting that position in the first round at a higher rate than at any other point in NFL history. I should link a source on that but I don’t have one other than myself; I researched this recently and I’m not sure if or where I published it. I guess if you want, you can call me out on this.

But it was no surprise to see five QBs go in the first round this year, even though I still don’t believe that Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones would have been day one picks in many previous drafts.

It was no surprise to see the Bengals, Dolphins, Chargers, and Packers to overlook certain red flags to select quarterbacks in the first round in 2020. (I’m not saying I wouldn’t have drafted those players, only that teams used to be a little bit more picky with their pickies.)

It was surprising to see the Cardinals draft QBs in the top-ten in back-to-back rounds at the time, but having seen the impact that a player like Kyler Murray can have in the league now, who could blame them?

And when Lamar Jackson becomes the fifth quarterback taken in the 2018 draft and then goes onto win MVP in 2019, perhaps that’s why teams have caught a fever for gambling on the third, fourth, or fifth-best quarterback in a given class.

Jones, the fifth quarterback taken in 2021, won the starting job with the New England Patriots and immediately earned the respect of coaches and teammates who have numerous Super Bowl rings at home in a place somewhere.

So I don’t doubt that at least four of these names will be first round picks in 2022, even though the consensus seems to be that nobody has guaranteed themselves a spot there yet. The NFL just doesn’t think it can gamble on passing on the next Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, or Mac Jones again.

2022 Eligible QBs

Grayson McCall, Coastal Carolina

Age, Height, Weight: 20, 6’3, 209 lbs

My most-recent ranking: 1

General Ranking: McCall is not viewed as an NFL draft prospect by most publications. He is certainly not seen as a future first round pick. But I disagree with most publications on this matter.

Highest draft projection: Wow, I initially missed this, but a person at ProFootballNetwork actually mocked McCall to the Carolina Panthers with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. This happened in May. Hell yes, Ian Cumming. You just made my NFL Draft person watchlist!

It feels cheesy — the Carolina Panthers getting the hometown kid in Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall — but it makes sense. Sam Darnold’s deal expires in 2023, and it’s tough to commit to the notion that he’ll earn a long-term gig. McCall, meanwhile, presents a clean slate. He’s a fearless competitor, a dynamic athlete, and a surprisingly accurate passer with impressive downfield zip.

Yeah, it makes sense that with another year, McCall could have a better chance to secure himself as a first round pick. And I would certainly take that! He could be a Heisman frontrunner in 2022, assuming he won’t enter the NFL Draft. But if Sam Howell, who grew up in the same town and is the same age/draft year can be projected in the 2022 first round, why not McCall? That part doesn’t make as much sense to me because I think McCall is not only already proving what he needs to prove, he’d also be better served getting immediate coaching from the NFL team that makes the correct decision to draft and mold him.

Why is playing at UNC supposed to make somebody a better prospect than somebody playing at Coastal Carolina, especially when Coastal is the team threatening to be ranked in the top-10? I understand the competition argument, but I don’t think that changes what scouts can see on film in terms of arm, accuracy, playmaking abilities, speed, leadership, etc.

Nobody else’s section is going to be as long as McCall’s, so I’ll stop now.

Anyways, most places don’t have McCall being drafted.

Stat notes: McCall leads all CFB QBs in comp%, passer rating, and Y/A through three weeks.

READ:

The epic post that started it all: Why Grayson McCall could be the next Zach Wilson (4/13/2021)

Grayson McCall’s second start puts him on top of college football

Matt Corral, Ole Miss

Age, Height, Weight: 22, 6’2, 205 lbs

My most-recent ranking: 5

General ranking: 1st round, top-5 QB

Corral has been one of the biggest risers in the early going of the college football season, but this ascent was something that could have been easily predicted. As a redshirt sophomore in 2020, Corral completed 71% of his passes for 10.2 Y/A, 29 touchdowns in 10 games, but he also threw 14 interceptions.

Through the first three games in 2021, Corral had nine touchdowns and no interceptions, but eight of those came against Austin Peay and Toledo. Corral has also rushed for five touchdowns, including four against Toledo.

What I said after Week 2:

He fires off lasers, there just wasn’t any defense here to speak of. Other than a few fun highlights, Austin Peay was no match here. This is where “TD total” will be misleading on the final season stat line and as the year goes on, I will be highlighting and separating a QB’s games against Power-5 teams and everyone else.

Highest draft projection: WalterFootball recently had him going 2nd overall to the Lions

Stat notes: Had at least two touchdowns in every game in 2020. Scored at least four touchdowns in five of 10 games.

Carson Strong, Nevada

Age, Height, Weight: 22, 6’4, 215 lbs

My most-recent ranking: 3

General ranking: 1st round, top-5 QB

What I said after Week 2:

It wasn’t that long ago that Idaho State was giving Nevada serious problems. But now with Strong on the field, no such issues in a 49-10 blowout. Not much you can take away from stats in matchups like this one, but Strong did everything that could be asked of him and continues to look like a first rounder.

What I said after Week 1:

He also threw six interceptions against Arkansas last year — and he should have probably had more. He was bad on almost every throw. He threw five interceptions against LSU last year, and they all came within the first 31 minutes of the game.

Highest projected draft position: Some places will place Strong at number one.

Stat notes: In maybe the toughest matchup of his career, Strong went 13/25, 89 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT in a loss to Oregon in 2019. But that was only Strong’s second career start.

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

Age, Height, Weight: 22, 6’4, 215 lbs

My most-recent ranking: 6

General ranking: 2nd round, 5-10 QB

My general thoughts: Arm talent is real. I like Ridder’s maturity, poise, athleticism, and experience; Ridder’s been a successful starting QB since he was a redshirt freshman in 2018. He’s capable of passing for 300 yards, rushing for 150 yards, and/or scoring all the touchdowns. But consistency isn’t there and despite experience, his numbers have never really improved. Want to see him take a big jump up.

2020 highlight reel

What I said after Week 2:

Ridder has better tests ahead with Indiana on September 18th, Notre Dame on October 2nd, and UCF on October 16th. But Murray State played the Bearcats tougher than the final score suggests.

Highest projected draft ranking: The Draft Network recently had Ridder going 11th

Stat notes: Ridder had 20 TD:5 INT, 7.9 Y/A as a freshman, then 19 TD:6 INT, 8.2 Y/A as a junior two years later. Where is the progress?

Sam Howell, UNC

Age, Height, Weight: 21, 6’1, 220 lbs

My most-recent ranking: 4

General ranking: 1st round, top-5 QB

My general thoughts: Not hard to see the comparisons to Baker Mayfield. With the right season and doing the right things before the draft, Howell could be a top-five pick. What does he need to prove: Can he be dominant against good defenses? Howell has six career games with 4+ TD passes: One against Wake Forest in 2020, one against Georgia Tech in 2019, one against Virginia Tech in 2019, and three against Virginia. In Week 3 of 2021, Howell had 307 passing yards, 112 rushing yards, and 5 TDs against Virginia, but also … he’s always dominated Virginia.

Howell also had the worst game of his career in Week 1, throwing three INTs against Virginia Tech.

What I said after Week 2:

Generally speaking, I wouldn’t say Howell would use this game film to highlight what’s special about him to NFL scouts. The TD totals are misleading and he had more than one off-target throw/missed opportunity, but it’s better than his three-interception game against Virginia Tech in Week 1.

Stat notes: After three games, Howell leads all QBs in rushing yards per game. He has 39 carries for 251 yards and two touchdowns. But better play against better competition is what matters.

Highest projected draft position: 1st

Stat notes: Howell’s 38 touchdown passes in 2019 is an FBS record for a true freshman. His top two receivers (Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome) and top two running backs (Javonte Williams, Michael Carter) were drafted into the NFL in 2021.

Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma

Age, Height, Weight: 20, 6’1, 205 lbs

My most-recent ranking: 8

General ranking: 1st round, top-5 QB, maybe #1

My general thoughts: You: a draft nut/college football expert. You: liked the name “Rattler.” You: liked that he was going to QBU at Oklahoma. You: figured he would play just like Patrick Mahomes.

Me? I liked all those things too. But Rattler’s in his second season as the starter and thus far he’s posted five games with a passer rating above 200 and three of those are against FBS teams. Rattler had a rating of 194 against Florida in the Cotton Bowl, but Florida ranked 74th in points allowed last season.

I like “the idea” of Rattler as much as the next person who is paying attention, but that’s all he is so far. An idea.

What I said after Week 2:

I don’t hate the game that Rattler had here of course, it’s just not that useful as far as information. Oklahoma doesn’t have a top-25 team on the schedule until Week 12 (!) against Iowa State and that’s the only top-25 team on the schedule. But Nebraska, West Virginia, K State, and Texas are the next four opponents.

What I said after Week 1:

I think this performance is a lot less satisfying than the one by a player like Strong, who doesn’t seem to create nearly as many pressure situations as Rattler does. I do not like to see a quarterback dropping 10-15 yards behind center, dancing with his feet, looking to “create a play.” The plays were already created by the coaches and improvisation should only begin to happen as a last case scenario. Rattler could have had at least five interceptions and that’s against Tulane.

Highest projected draft position: 1st

Stat notes: After three games, Rattler ranks 59th in yards per attempt and 31st in passer rating.

Malik Willis, Liberty

Age, Height, Weight: 22, 6’1, 215 lbs

My most-recent ranking: 2

General ranking: first round, top-5 QB

My general thoughts: There’s never been a quarterback built like Willis and there is upside to his game to be among the best in the NFL. His play at Liberty has been really good but this is his fourth year playing college football and he needs to start dominating on the field.

What I said after Week 2:

Hard to get good highlights out of games like this one, at least right away. Willis won’t face many elite defenses in his college career. He sees Ole Miss on November 6th.

Playing at Liberty, the desired outcome of this season for Willis is: total domination. In the first three games, Willis faced Campbell, Troy, and Old Dominion. He’s gotten better each week and his numbers are good but he needs to keep stacking dominant performances.

Highest projected draft position: DraftWire recently had him going 15th

Stats notes: Willis scored seven touchdowns (6 passing, 1 rushing) in a win over SMU in 2020. A former Auburn recruit who transferred to Liberty, Willis faced off against Grayson McCall’s Coastal Carolina defense in the 2020 Cure Bowl and went 19/29, 210 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 137 rushing yards, 4 rushing touchdowns.

Kedon Slovis, USC

Age, Height, Weight: 20, 6’3, 205 lbs

My most-recent ranking: N/R

General ranking: Day 2-Day 3

My general thoughts: You can still find someone who is willing to put Kedon Slovis in the first round of their mock draft and based on the film, you can understand why that person would do that. But Slovis is remarkably now in a competition for the starting job at USC with true freshman Jaxson Dart and because the Trojans fired head coach Clay Helton during the season, it seems like literally nobody is in charge right now and this could drag on until next year.

Though he went to USC, Slovis was only a three-star prospect in 2019, but as a true freshman he threw 30 touchdowns, and then as a sophomore he had 17 in only six starts. But receiver Drake London might end up as a top-10 pick in the 2022 draft and Slovis has been rather hit or miss, throwing three interceptions in each of his two career starts against Oregon.

What I said after Week 2:

But watching the highlights, I immediately can see two dropped touchdown passes by USC receivers, followed by a dropped pass that turned into Slovis’s only interception. I think part of what happened is that Stanford’s secondary and pass rush got the better of USC’s receivers and o-line. It was neither a great night nor a bad one for Slovis.

What I said after Week 1:

On the other side, his play is a bit robotic. Seems like he’s still trying to get comfortable playing the part of quarterback.

Highest project draft position: Slovis could be a first round pick but things go in limbo now that he could be benched for an exciting freshman.

Stat notes: Not so much a stat note, but Slovis’s stats have mostly come against Pac-12 competition and he has few “fluff” matchups on his resume, depending on how you feel about Pac-12 defenses. Among the non-conference teams he’s faced, Slovis performed well or adequately against Iowa and Notre Dame, but threw three picks against BYU.

Kenny Pickett, Pitt

Age, Height, Weight: 23, 6’3, 220 lbs

My most-recent ranking: 7

General ranking: Day 3/Priority FA

My general thoughts: Pickett was just barely grazing the radar going into the season, but the fourth-year starter and redshirt senior is coming off of a 6-TD performance against Western Michigan and will post career-best numbers this year. He could be viewed as a “Nathan Peterman” in the draft and convince a team to take him for his experience and dependability.

Highest projected draft position: You might find somebody projecting Pickett for the third or fourth round.

Stat notes: Pickett threw four interceptions in a blowout loss to Clemson in 2020.

I will also be monitoring and potentially building profiles for the following QBs soon:

Aqeel Glass, Alabama A&M

Note: Glass is rather new to me, but the NFL is going to be on the lookout for the next “Trey Lance” — a guy not playing anywhere near a Power 5 school — and Glass might be him so we’ll keep monitoring the situation.

Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland

Note: Younger brother of Tua, he may need to wait until the 2023 draft to solidify himself as an “NFL” QB as he doesn’t have much experience yet.

Brennan Armstrong, SMU

Note: Big-armed lefty

Kaleb Eleby, Western Michigan

Note: Recently emerged as a new sleeper to reach the top-two rounds of the draft, if he can continue his level of play from the last nine games, dating back to 2020.

Tanner McKee, Stanford

Note: Was a top-ranked recruit in 2018 behind Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, just returned to college football after a two-year mission.

Jayden Daniels, ASU

Jake Haener, Fresno State

Note: One of the stars of the 2021 college season but is he big enough to play QB in the NFL? Former UW Husky who transferred to Fresno State.

Brock Purdy, Iowa State

Note: Struggles this season have dropped him down

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA

Note: Some good traits but not sure there’s much “NFL-like” about him as a QB

Will Levis, Kentucky

Chase Garbers, Cal

Bo Nix, Auburn

Note: Former elite recruit, doesn’t have the arm to go to the next level

Tanner Mordecai, SMU

Note: Insane numbers against weak competition, transferred from Oklahoma

Jack Coan, Notre Dame

Tyler Shough, Texas Tech

Note: Previous draft consideration because he transferred from Oregon to Texas Tech seems all but evaporated after struggling against Stephen F. Austin.

Michael Penix, Indiana

Note: Former first round consideration, 2021 season has sunk his odds

D’Eriq King, Miami

Note: NFL teams may view King as a WR

Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky

Note: Record-setting FCS QB at Houston-Baptiste that transferred in 2021

Jack Plummer, Purdue

Dustin Crum, Kent State