2022 NFL Draft notes, Week 8: Baylor's Abram Smith switched to RB and is thriving
Grayson McCall-it-a-day after Coastal's first loss of the season?
Let me start today with noting which newcomers you will read about below: RB Abram Smith of Baylor’s exciting transition back to offense; Penn State DE Arnold Ebiketie is on a tear since 2020; Cincinnati LT James Tunstall’s rise from two-star prospect; Mizzou RB Tyler Badie’s unique advantage; and Notre Dame CB Cam Hart’s ascent past some of his more notable teammates coming into the season.
But first, Grayson McCall took his first career regular season loss on Wednesday night, as Coastal Carolina dropped a road game against Appalachian State, 30-27. McCall had a passer rating above 250 at halftime (McCall’s season-low passer rating is 210.4) and while he didn’t throw a pick or anything, Coastal didn’t have the offensive firepower expected of Coastal.
McCall finished 15-of-23 for 291 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, and eight carries for a loss of three. McCall is capable of running — look at his 2020 game logs because he rushed for at least 40 yards in eight of 11 starts — but Coastal Carolina head coach Jamey Chadwell has all but eliminated that option from the offense. As I suspected following the 2020 season, Coastal needs to focus on McCall’s talents on a passer and to take advantage of what I think is one of the better arms in college football. Not only that, but to make McCall’s throwing acumen even better than it is, because there’s work to be done.
McCall rushed twice for 24 yards in Week 1 and that is by far his most productive day as a runner. He can handle it in a triple-option offense, but the focus has been more on passing with McCall and two probable NFL weapons (Jaivon Heiligh, Isaiah Likely) as the targets. Senior WR Kameron Brown has emerged to catch 18 passes or 346 yards as well.
Now Coastal moves on and the mission is no different…with Troy, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Texas State, and South Alabama left on the schedule, Grayson McCall should continue to post the country’s best stats through to the end of 2021. He may then choose to return to Coastal for his senior season, probably having elevated himself and the Chants into the national conversation for 2022.
If he does choose to enter the draft, I think he will impress NFL teams and be guaranteed to hear his name called eventually.
If he chooses to return to school, McCall will solidify himself as a first round talent in 2023.
Now onto some Week 7-Week 8 college football notes.
2022 Running Back/Rushing Notes
I am reading through some EPA rankings (Estimated Points Added) on CFB-Graphs.com and looking for clues as to who might be doing things well. Starting with EPA per rushing attempt:
Cincinnati ranks first in EPA per rushing attempt, which is a nice feather in the cap for RB Jerome Ford. The former Alabama recruit has flourished in his opportunity with the Bearcats, averaging 6.8 yards per carry and scoring 20 touchdowns in 16 games since transferring in 2020. Ford has only caught 15 passes for 100 yards in that time, but I’ve seen worse.
Could Cincinnati left tackle James Tunstall find out next year that he’s a draftable prospect? I haven’t identified any better candidates on Cincinnati’s offensive line yet. Tunstall is a former two-star recruit in the 2017 class, here’s an interview with him from this past summer:
Ohio State is second, with most of the RB credit going to freshman TreVeyon Henderson. Backup junior Master Teague hasn’t stood out as some expected. Offensive linemen Nicholas Petit-Frere, Thayer Munford, and Harry Miller are expected to be considered in the 2022 draft; the first two perhaps in the top three rounds.
Do I think a running back should take some responsibility and credit for a good rushing team? Yes. Of course. It’s weird that anyone has ever questioned otherwise, but I once counted myself among the doubters. Weren’t Oklahoma State and the Lions always a great rushing team with Barry Sanders, despite faults elsewhere?
The trick is separating the credit or blame appropriately.
Baylor RB Abram Smith is a senior getting his first extensive action and he has 105 carries for 785 yards and 10 touchdowns. Baylor is ranked seventh in EPA rushing. Smith just won a national player of the week award and the former linebacker recruit seems to be a better fit for offense.
Watching his highlights against BYU, Abram Smith does look fast and “skinny through the hole” with some above-decent blocking in front of him. Smith had a handful of carries as a freshman and sophomore, then made 48 tackles and 5 TFL in five games as a linebacker last year, but sacrificed his progress on defense for the betterment of the team. It seems he had more progress to make as a running back and he’s among the nation’s leaders in rushing yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns. He has only caught six passes for 29 yards.
Here are 2021’s leading rushers (2022-eligible players only) through October 22:
1. Tyrion Davis-Price, LSU (1,150 yards, 5.6 YPC, 10 TD)
2. Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State (997 yards, 6.6 YPC, 9 TD)
5. Mataeo Durant, Duke (870 yards, 5.2 YPC, 9 TD, 18 rec, 183y, 1 TD)
6. Brad Roberts, Air Force (818 yards, 4.6 YPC, 8 TD)
7. Abram Smith, Baylor (785 yards, 7.5 TPC, 10 TD)
8. DeAndre Torrey, North Texas (780 yards, 5.8 YPC, 6 TD)
9. Sincere McCormick, UTSA (778 yards, 4.6 YPC, 6 TD)
10. Christopher Rodriguez, Jr, Kentucky (774 yards, 6.1 YPC, 6 TD)
11. Breece Hall, Iowa State (748 yards, 5.6 YPC, 10 TD, 21 rec, 152y, 1 TD)
12. Tyler Badie, Mizzou (743 yards, 5.9 YPC, 9 TD, 32 rec, 265y, 4 TD)
15. Jerome Ford, Cincinnati (705 yards, 6.9 YPC, 12 TD)
17. Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (697 yards, 6.4 YPC, 7 TD, 11 rec, 121y)
18. Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma (688 yards, 6.9 YPC, 7 TD)
19. B.J. Baylor, Oregon State (678 yards, 6.8 YPC, 9 TD)
21. Tyler Allgeier, BYU (675 yards, 5.0 YPC, 9 TD)
22. Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M (659 yards, 6.3 YPC, 4 TD, 18 rec, 159y, 1 TD)
23. Malik Willis, Liberty (655 yards, 6.2 YPC, 9 TD)
Notes
Might as well stop at Malik Willis…
Rushing production is probably the best indicator of which running backs will be drafted and how early. Looking back at recent drafts, there is a clear correlation between production and draft stock. I’m not saying that every running back who is productive gets drafted, only that if you are gaining yards and making plays, the NFL is watching. Some players among the leaders might get weeded out for various reasons, but I can confidently say that players like Kenneth Walker, Mataeo Durant, and Abram Smith have gone from running backs getting no hype to those first two names becoming close to Day 2 locks.
Missouri RB Tyler Badie has a clear advantage on his resume that many of his peers do not: 32 receptions. RB Breece Hall has 21 and RB Isaiah Spiller has 18. Hall and Spiller should continue to be considered near the top of the class.
Some names outside the top-25 right now would include: Alabama RB Brian Robinson Jr, UNC RB Ty Chandler, Iowa RB Tyler Goodson, Tulsa RB Shamari Brooks, K State RB Deuce Vaughn, Oregon RB Travis Dye, NC State RB Zonovan Knight, Washington State RB Max Borghi, and definitely some more but I stop here.
2022 CB / Pass Defense Notes
Let’s see if EPA/Pass attempt on Defense can tell us anything.
The top-three pass defenses are, no surprise, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Cincinnati.
Georgia’s top-ranked draft cornerback is Derion Kendrick. Here’s what PFF said about Kendrick before the season: “Kendrick switched from receiver to cornerback early on in his Clemson career, which always piques the interest of evaluators. While he has good ball skills, it hasn’t quite led to ball production. In two seasons as a starter before transferring to Georgia, Kendrick racked up all of three picks and five pass breakups on 83 targets. Not to mention, his average speed was exposed by Ohio State and LSU in back-to-back playoffs.”
This season, Derion Kendrick has 1 INT, 2 PD, and 1 TFL in seven games.
Of course, Georgia’s top-ranked defensive players are mostly in the front-seven, including potentially three or more first rounders.
I did not know that Wisconsin had such a dominant defense because the Badgers are just 3-3, but ranked 26th in the nation in points allowed. The problem is the offense, 116th in points scored. The top-ranked Badgers defensive player could be Wisconsin NT Keeanu Benton. Benton has 1.5 TFL and two batted passes this season. Benton may choose not to declare.
The team’s most productive corner is Wisconsin CB Falon Hicks, who has six passes defended in only four games. The top-ranked going into the season was CB Caesar Williams. Wisconsin’s most productive players are in the front-seven: LB Nick Herbig (5.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks), LB Leo Chenal (4 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 2 FF in four games), LB Jack Sanborn (6 TFL, 1 sack).
Purdue WR David Bell ate up Iowa’s defense last week—will he do the same against Wisconsin in Week 8?
It would come as no surprise to see Cincinnati CB Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Purely a study of production: CB Coby Bryant has 7 passes defended, 1 INT, 1 FF in six games. DE Myjai Sanders can’t get lost in the Sauce, he has 2.5 TFL — no sacks.
The 8th-ranked pass defense belongs to Notre Dame, which is of course home to S Kyle Hamilton. Also with draft mentions on Irish defense: DT Jayson Ademilola, DE Isaiah Foskey.
Notre Dame CB Cam Hart recently went in the second round of a 2022 NFL Mock draft. Hart has his first two career INTs this season. Foskey went in the fourth round of the same mock, Ademilola went in the fifth.
Penn State S Jaquan Brisker and S Joey Porter, Jr. and LB Brandon Smith are all a part of a defense that is ranked 9th in EPA/pass attempt allowed. My general feeling is that Brisker’s made the most strides, but Joey Porter’s son is almost assured a spot in the NFL. Brandon Smith has 13 TFL in his last 14 games, with 3 sacks and 1 INT. The team leader in INTs is S Ji’ayir Brown, a senior with three picks in six starts.
Perhaps most fascinating though is Penn State DE Arnold Ebiketie — the transfer from Temple posted 8.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 3 FF in six games last season. He has 9 TFL and 4 sacks in six games with Penn State. The 6’4, 235 lb Ebiketie must be rising.
Other notable P5 schools ranked in the top-25 for Pass Defense EPA: Texas A&M (12th), Clemson (13th), Purdue (14th), Oklahoma State (16th), Iowa (18th), Washington (19th), South Carolina (20th), Coastal (22nd (not P5 but you know why I can’t skip them), Virginia Tech (23rd), and Florida (25th).
Some cornerbacks out of those schools includes A&M CB Leon O’Neal Jr, Clemson CB Andrew Booth, Oklahoma State DB Jarrick Bernard, Iowa CB Riley Moss and DB Matt Hankins, Washington CB Isaiah McDuffie, Washington DB Kyler Gordon, South Carolina DB Jaylan Foster, Virginia Tech DB Jermaine Waller, and Florida CB Kaiir Elam.
I know I’ve learned a lot today!
Reader Question:
I know it's a weak conference, but EWU managed to turn out Cooper Kupp. What's your take on Eric Barriere? Does he have what it takes to make it in the NFL?
Thank you for the question! Please, send me more questions!
This is my first Eric Barriere experience…
Eastern Washington QB Eric Barriere has had a productive 4+ year career and he’s going to shatter his previous season-best numbers. In seven games of 2021, Barriere has thrown 280 passes, completed 69%, thrown for 438 yards per game, with 28 touchdowns and five interceptions.
The first thing that stands out has to be the interceptions. Even playing at EWU, he has already thrown 25 interceptions in 40 games over the last four years. He had seven interceptions in seven games last season and he’s on track to potentially throw double-digit picks this year.
There are a lot of reasonable excuses for interceptions, but that is a consistent history that is hard to ignore, especially because it’s coming against inferior competition.
Of course, you also wouldn’t want to ignore it if he throws 50+ touchdowns this season. Barriere’s 28 touchdowns in seven games, with an extended playoff run, could easily turn into 50 scores by year’s end. Barriere hasn’t run the ball a lot over the last two seasons, but he was a productive dual threat in 2018 and 2019 prior to focusing on passing.
Watching his film against North Dakota State in last season’s playoffs, there’s certainly a player who has confidence in both his arm and his legs. He can jump around inside the pocket, move outside of it, and he’s got the Russell Wilson/Kyler Murray flair that would draw national attention to a program like Eastern Washington.
But do I see more concerns out of Barriere’s style than Wilson or Murray? I would say so. It’s not a question of whether or not a college team could win an FCS championship with Barriere, or even if in an alternate universe, he could help lead a Division-I team to the CFP — he might have been able to do that — it’s whether or not you’d actually implore an NFL team like the Texans or Lions to build their entire offensive gameplan and franchise around him.
He’s an exciting player to watch but I worry that his instincts to “make a play” could end up becoming more costly than beneficial in the long run.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Eric Barriere moving forward.
Thanks for the question. Send more!
-Kenneth