Grading Seahawks 2022 mock drafts: Who 'stands out' in a crowded field?
Should Seahawks pick Malik Willis in the 1st, Matt Corral in the 2nd, or no quarterback at all? These 3 mock drafts run the gamut.
I probably started creating mock drafts in the 90s, which puts me somewhere on a timeline between Mel Kiper, Jr. and a TikToker. Though my experiences as a writer and frequent reader of mock drafts, I’ve come to learn that no other piece of content related to the draft has ever come close to the popularity of these articles. Not just for me, for anybody.
Whether you’re making an NFL Draft podcast, a YouTube channel, or running a blog, the term “Mock Draft” brings in more people than anything else that content creators have imagined during the explosion of attention on this one event over the last two decades.
This very article is Exhibit A.
Mocks have a monopoly over our attention leading up to the draft and this leads to some inherent issues with mock drafts. None bigger than “How do I stand out in a crowded field?”
As soon as a writer starts trying to answer that question before trying to be informationally accurate and honest, then all the words on the page that come after that are meaningless.
This isn’t with malicious intent. This is the competitive nature of the internet. The need to stand out above others undeniably plays some part in the content that the audience receives. How does it factor into what scenarios could play out in a mock draft when the goal is to stand out?
“How do I get ‘Quarterback’ in the headline?”
“What would be a SHOCKING first pick?”
“Who is a controversial selection in the first round?”
“Would I look ‘stupid’ if I made this pick for this team?”
“Would it look ‘too boring’ to make this obvious pick for this team?”
Another is “unreal optimism,” which influences people to make predictions that benefit them.
Psychology research indeed suggests that the more desirable a future event is, the more likely people think it is. When the sociologists Edward Brent and Donald Granberg studied wish fulfillment in U.S. presidential elections between 1952 and 1980, they found that 80 percent of each of the major candidates’ supporters expected their preferred candidate to win by a ratio of around four to one. “People distort their perception of an election's closeness in ways that are consistent with their preferences,” a later paper concluded.
So if you are writing a mock draft for the NFL team you like, such as the Seattle Seahawks, you are far more likely than a fan of one of the other 31 teams to make choices that will be beneficial to the Seahawks. That means that there’s a non-zero chance your mock will lack some truth to reality.
These are a few examples, of many, and this is also always harmless. Because mock drafts are doomed to be immense failures when the actual draft is complete. Many more studies have shown that humans are awful at making predictions and that won’t change with the 2022 NFL Draft.
It’s okay to want to stand out in a crowded field. As you know, I want to stand out at Substack, so please help a small Seahawks newsletter reach the site’s leaderboards by subscribing:
I point this out because it seems relevant to me and it’s a factor that I’ve never seen openly discussed before. Have a thought on that?
Since everybody does love mock drafts, and they can be great resources for learning about who the notable prospects are going to be in April, I wanted to share three with you today and give my thoughts on their thoughts.
Tim Weaver, SeahawksWire
9. CB Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati
40. QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss
41. RB Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M
72. DE Drake Jackson, USC
107. LB Troy Andersen
151. TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
152. WR Bo Melton, Rutgers
226. S Amari Carter, Miami
Thoughts
I’m a huge proponent of not drafting a quarterback in the first round, so that’s an automatic A. Based on Pete Carroll’s history, I do not believe that the Seahawks will draft a cornerback with their first pick, but I do think Sauce Gardner would be a good pick.
Carroll has never had the chance to draft a cornerback like Gardner (6’3, 33.5” arms, 4.41 40, great college season) so maybe throw history out the window?
The Matt Corral pick would make fans happy, the Spiller pick would make them mad. I’m the opposite. And I do believe Carroll will draft a second round running back.
Drake Jackson and the day three picks would all be great values, if they’re there. Certainly popular picks, especially Troy Andersen, because of his unique athletic traits.
Grade: A-
Have to go slight minus for the Corral pick but it could be said that he’s still decent value in that range. Better than any mock that has Corral going nine.
Corbin Smith, “Fan Nation”
11. QB Malik Willis, Liberty* (trade down, add pick 47)
41. DE Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State
46. OT Daniel Faalele, Minnesota* (trade down, add pick 155)
47. LB Channing Tindall, Georgia
57. WR David Bell, Purdue* (trade up, 72+151)
118. C Cole Strange, Chattanooga* (trade down, add pick 213)
152. RB Hassan Haskins, Michigan
155. FS J.T. Woods, Baylor
213. CB Kyler McMichael, North Carolina
226. TE Daniel Bellinger, San Diego State
Thoughts
Big respect to Corbin for making a few realistic trade scenarios. These aren’t overly optimistic returns, which is often the case for Seahawks trade scenarios I see online, and many of the targets would make sense.
Channing Tindall is a name that I’ve seen most often connected to Seattle in the second round now.
David Bell was such a productive player in basically every game of his college career. He makes sense to me as a Pete Carroll receiver.
Obviously I cannot endorse the Malik Willis pick, but at least Corbin got to trade down.
Grade: A-
Choosing a quarterback is a blow, but softened by grabbing a few extra draft picks.
Jacob Schyvinck, Fansided
9. DE Jermaine Johnson II, Florida State
40. LB Chad Muma, Wyoming
41. CB Tariq Woolen, UTSA
72. OT Abraham Lucas, WSU
107. CB Tariq Castro-Fields, Penn State
151. OL Cam Jurgens, Nebraska
152. S Kolby Harvel-Peel, Oklahoma State
226. DE Zach VanValkenburg, Iowa
Thoughts
Jermaine Johnson will be a popular Seahawks mock selection leading up the draft, I think. He was highly productive as a senior at Florida State last season, and only a year earlier he was playing with many of the Georgia draft picks we’re about to see. Any edge pick of his caliber would make sense.
Woolen has one of those “red flags” that I like: He’s only been playing his position for a short amount of time. Switching from receiver to cornerback two years ago, Woolen’s size and speed (6’4, 205 lbs, 33.5” arms, 4.26 40-yard dash, 42” vertical) makes him a rare player on defense and he immediately took to his new position. But whether he’ll ever get up to speed in the NFL is unclear, it’s a risky pick with a lot of reward.
I’m not sure I would love Abraham Lucas in round two, but sure, run to the podium if he’s on the board in round three!
Grade: A
The 2022 Seahawks need to build up the team, take their chances with the best prospects on the board who don’t play quarterback. This did that.
Tim Weavers first 3 picks are my uneducated wish list. I think Gardner will be gone, as well as Corral, but they both have the ability to be future game changers, Spiller will be there and we should take him. Victoria Chris