2022 NFL Mock Draft Round-up: 3 things I've learned about the draft over the last year
2022 NFL Mock Draft Round-up: 3 things I've learned about the draft over the last year
Seahawks pick a QB in round 2
The NFL Draft has always been my favorite event of the year—any category—even though the parameters around the “weekend” have changed quite a lot since I was 14. No longer is it an all-day Saturday/Sunday event and no longer do we have quite the same amount of time on the clock or all the players in the green room, but no matter how it is served to me I’ve been eating more than my fair share of the NFL Draft for the last 25 years.
But the 2022 NFL Draft will represent the first time that I spent a good year and change preparing for a class and soon I’ll find out how much that extra preparation has helped me—and you if you’ve been reading this newsletter—feel confidently knowledgeable on who is who and why is why and how is Howell.
However, it has been increasingly difficult to cover both the the NFL season and the 2022 draft/college season at the same time so you have likely noticed that draft coverage has slowed down considerably in the last two months. That’s one of a few things that I’ve learned throughout this process. Today, I want to round up some 2022 NFL Mock Drafts as a way to get us ‘caught up’ on the expected first round class (as well as what the Seahawks could do in round two) but first here’s a few lessons I’ve learned over the past year of doing this…
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Covering NFL and college at the same time is difficult, if not impossible
It would be easy to write about both levels of football for a few months, or to go on Around the Horn and speak generally about 11 different sports with little specific knowledge, but trying to give extensive coverage to both professional and college football teams at the same time proved quite difficult to me. Certainly going through it the first time should be harder than going through it five years from now and I’ll find ways to be more efficient, but there is way too much happening on Saturdays to expect to be finished wrapping that up by the time the NFL starts playing on Sunday.
There’s good reason that teams employ dozens of people to scout and pay attention to college football, as well as scouts for pro football, during the pro football season. Pete Carroll is too busy paying attention to the team the Seahawks are playing “next week” to be able to sit down and watch Falcons-Panthers, Patriots-Browns, or even USC-Cal probably. Not to any degree that would be significant.
And I’m not comparing myself to Pete Carroll or someone like that who has an actual insane workload during the NFL season. I’m only making the point that the NFL season entails a lot, college football entails even more, and though they are playing the sport that fact doesn’t do anything to make it easier to write 1,000 words on Matt Corral when you’ve also got to write 1,000 on Matthew Stafford and 1,000 on Russell Wilson.
This is good reason why there’s so little interest in the draft and mock drafts between May and February, another thing I’ve learned in the past year.
QBs and “Everyone else” are separate studies
Are we all overrating quarterbacks? Yes, many of us do that. I do that. But is the quarterback still the most important player on a team? Yes. The most important position in any major American team sport? I can’t think of anything else that is close to being like it. Is Jimmy Garoppolo going to the NFC Championship game for the second time in three years? Also, somehow, yes.
You can have a quarterback as close to perfect as Aaron Rodgers and the team can still miss the Super Bowl for over a decade, we’ve found out. But you can also have Aaron Rodgers and reach the playoffs 11 time in 13 years—the Cardinals franchise is 102 years old and it has 12 playoff appearances.
So teams and fans and the media do focus their attention more on the upcoming class of quarterbacks than they do every other position combined. We saw that in 2021, the headlines from February to April were dominated with talk of Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones, and none of them were even the first two quarterbacks selected last year. We’re going to see that in 2022, there’s a lot of talk about Matt Corral, Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Sam Howell, Bailey Zappe, and so on, but none of them are even consensus projections to start at the next level.
Quarterbacks make the news, but position players can make just as big of a difference: Look at the 2019 draft and the current playoffs: Nick Bosa at number two, Devin White at number five, Rashan Gary at number 12, Deebo Samuel at number 36, A.J. Brown at number 51—but also Josh Allen at number 7.
Analysis can be impacted by confirmation bias
It will be remarkably cringe of me to reference the word “fetch” from Mean Girls but that’s as apropos as it gets for an analogy: “Stop trying to make ‘fetch’ happen.”
I think we’ve seen that with a lot of prospects, especially at quarterback, analysts will fall in love with someone and then doing everything they can to make that player “happen”. A draft expert can watch a touchdown throw by that player and say, “Hey look, a touchdown throw!” and at the same time review an interception by the player and write, “Well, the reason that this great prospect made a mistake is because of something that I believe isn’t his fault or is correctable.”
Dislike a prospect and the opposite is true: The touchdown was the result of poor defense and the interception is a clear sign of being overrated.
I have confirmation bias for Grayson McCall. I will try to make “McCall” happen no matter what. However, it’s really out of my hands how Grayson McCall develops as an NFL quarterback over the next year or 20, but I certainly hope he does well because I’ve been pounding the table for him for a long time. When he makes a mistake, I hope that I have it in me to be honest about why the mistake happened and if it is a concern or not…
When Grayson McCall finally does make a mistake, I’ll let you know. ;)
Similarly, I disagreed with the majority of assessments on Justin Fields last year and didn’t feel he was a quarterback that I would ever draft to become a franchise starter. It seemed to me that people were making a ton of excuses for what went wrong, only highlighted what went fantastically well (which is a small percentage of plays for any quarterback, good or bad), and built a narrative based on only a fraction of the evidence that we had to evaluate Justin Fields. Which is also exactly what we saw transpire during Fields’ abysmal rookie season with the Bears.
When you’re not in the majority opinion on a player you believe is great, you root even harder for him to succeed because it’s like getting $50 on a scratcher.
When you’re not in the majority opinion on a player you believe is massively overrated, you do the same.
Because now you’re not just rooting for their success, you’re mostly only rooting for your own success. People who banked on Justin Fields being the steal of 2021 now believe they have a personal stake in his career—”my OPINION is on the line!”—whereas people who felt Zach Wilson was overrated are actively waiting for the next interception or fumble or Jets loss to proclaim that they were correct on that too.
This is fine for fans to do. This is even fine for media to do. It’s not fine for draft experts to do. Which of those do I fall in? I’m not a draft expert by any means, but hopefully I’m always checking myself and giving the most honest descriptors and opinions possible so that we can come to some fair conclusions on these prospects.
Those are three things I’ve learned. There are more, but let’s get to the mock drafts and save something for later. I’ll post the link to the mock, the top-10, the quarterbacks, surprises, and anyone who went into round two and make a selection for the Seahawks.
Daniel Jeremiah mock draft, 1.0
Top-10
1-Jaguars, OT Evan Neal
2-Lions, DE Aidan Hutchinson
3-Texans, S Kyle Hamilton
4-Jets, DE Kayvon Thibodeaux
5-Giants, OT Ikem Ekwonu
6-Panthers, CB Ahmad Gardner
7-Giants, LB Devin Lloyd
8-Falcons, WR Treylon Burks
9-Broncos, QB Kenny Pickett
10-Jets, CB Trent McDuffie
QBs
11-WFT, QB Matt Corral
29-Lions, QB Malik Willis
Surprises/Notables
12-Vikings, CB Derek Stingley
13-Browns, Edge Travon Walker
17-Chargers, OT Bernhard Raimann
26-Dolphins, OT Daniel Faalele
28-Titans, LB Quay Walker
30-Chiefs, WR Jameson Williams
32-Packers, DT Devonte Wyatt
Notes:
Evan Neal is a popular first overall pick for the Jaguars. One of the main reasons I hesitate with that is simply because the dudes over at my favorite YouTube draft show — Boom or Bust — have essentially said he’s a little overrated. But actually I see now they just posted a scouting report on Neal and I haven’t watched it yet so maybe there’s been an update.
A safety in the top-three would be unique but so is Kyle Hamilton. It seems like the draft could still fall in such a way that a team outside of the top-six will land Hamilton, a game-changing safety. There’s no team that wouldn’t improve with Hamilton on the defense. He shouldn’t get past the Giants.
This is REALLY high for Ahmad Gardner. Not saying it’s unfair, just relatively really high.
Robert Saleh has a chance to add two defensive cornerstones to the defense. But we also must keep in mind that the point for the Jets is not to simply give Saleh what “Saleh needs”; it matters who are the best players for the Jets? Because as we’ve seen, a head coach’s tenure can often end before the players the team drafts, especially when it is the Jets. Getting Zach Wilson more help? I would personally like to see that addressed at least once in the top-10.
Oliver Hodgkinson, PFN, 4-round mock draft
Top-10
1-Jaguars, OT Evan Neal
2-Lions, DE Kayvon Thibodeaux
3-Texans, DE Aidan Hutchinson
4-Jets, CB Andrew Booth Jr
5-Giants, OT Ikem Ekwonu
6-Panthers, OT Charles Cross
7-Giants, DE David Ojabo
8-Falcons, S Kyle Hamilton
9-Broncos, QB Carson Strong
10-Jets, DE George Karlaftis
QBs
11-WFT, QB Sam Howell
49-Saints, QB Malik Willis
52-Steelers, QB Kenny Pickett
Surprises/Notables
41-Seahawks, DT Perrion Winfrey
72-Seahawks, C Alec Lindstrom
16-Eagles, S Lewis Cine
17-Chargers, DT DeMarvin Leal
29-Chiefs, EDGE Cameron Thomas
31-Titans, G Zion Johnson
32-Packers, WR David Bell
Notes:
High for Andrew Booth and another defensive draft for the Jets here.
Most people still have Thibodeaux in the top-three, but not everyone. He could be a good who falls outside of the top-five.
Ekwonu is perhaps getting more top-10 love than any offensive lineman other than Neal and perhaps he goes first among all offensive linemen.
We’ve got two Seattle picks here, addressing the defensive and offensive line needs. Okay, sure, seems fine. It won’t solve the Seahawks woes from 2021 however, more will be needed.
David Bell sneaks into the first round but of course, Green Bay won’t be picking 32nd unless they trade down.
PFF, Trevor Sikkema
Top-10
1-Jaguars, OT Evan Neal
2-Lions, DE Aidan Hutchinson
3-Texans, S Kyle Hamilton
4-Jets, OT Ikem Ekwonu
5-Giants, DE Kayvon Thibodeaux
6-Panthers, OT Charles Cross
7-Giants, C Tyler Linderbaum
8-Falcons, WR Treylon Burks
9-Broncos, QB Kenny Pickett
10-Jets, WR Drake London
QBs
11-WFT, QB Matt Corral
20-Steelers, QB Sam Howell
Surprises/Notables
18-Saints, WR George Pickens
29-Bengals, OT Max Mitchell
Notes
Almost everyone has the Broncos and Washington Football Team drafting a quarterback. I don’t know about that. Denver especially seems likely to trade for a quarterback who is ready to help them right now. Obviously the mock drafters are typically going with what we know, not what we assume will happen, and right now Denver has a need at QB. But teams are typically not saved right away by QBs, especially not ones who slip past eight other teams.
George Pickens making it into the top-20, which Sikkema admits will be higher than any other mock drafter, probably. I have no problem with it.
CBS Sports, Ryan Wilson mock draft
Top-10
1-Jaguars, DE Aidan Hutchinson
2-Lions, DE Kayvon Thibodeaux
3-Texans, OT Ikem Ekwonu
4-Jets, OT Evan Neal
5-Giants, S Kyle Hamilton
6-Panthers, OT Charles Cross
7-Giants, C Tyler Linderbaum
8-Falcons, DE David Ojabo
9-Broncos, QB Matt Corral
10-Jets, CB Derek Stingley
QBs
18-Saints, QB Kenny Pickett
31-Lions, QB Malik Willis
Surprises/Notables
11-WFT, WR Treylon Burks
19-Eagles, WR Jameson Williams
22-Raiders, DL Logan Hall
27-Bucs, TE Trey McBride
Notes
I like this move for the WFT drafting Burks instead of a QB. Could Football Team perhaps attempt to trade for Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, Tyler Huntley, Baker Mayfield, or Carson Wentz?
The Jets drafting Evan Neal and Derek Stingley seems like the best haul for them. I would then like to see New York pick a wide receiver at the top of round two because you can’t have too many and they already don’t have enough.
I just put Jameson Williams there because the Eagles have to draft a first round receiver for the third year in a row, and that’s before counting some of their day two picks at receiver. It’s been ugly—clearly Philadelphia still needs a QB.
WalterFootball Mock Draft
Top-10
1-Jaguars, DE Kayvon Thibodeaux
2-Lions, QB Kenny Pickett
3-Texans, DE Aidan Hutchinson
4-Jets, DE George Karlaftis
5-Giants, OT Evan Neal
6-Panthers, QB Malik Willis
7-Giants, DE David Ojabo
8-Falcons, QB Sam Howell
9-Broncos, DT Jordan Davis
10-Jets, CB Derek Stingley
QBs
40-Broncos, QB Matt Corral
41-Seahawks, QB Carson Strong
Surprises/Seahawks
41-Seahawks, QB Carson Strong
Notes:
This is clearly the mock draft that feels the least “updated” out of these four mock drafts. This is more like something we could have read in November. It doesn’t mean that it is more or less accurate than the others, it just means that it has some old school ideas, like three QBs in the top-10 for a draft that some say has no first round QBs.
If the Seahawks pick Carson Strong… it may not be the worst thing in the world. Strong has the potential to be the best quarterback of the 2022 class and yet few have him projected as a first round pick yet. It’s just not a great spot to be drafting quarterbacks—I tend to strongly discourage second round QBs. But that’s based on history and right now the position is changing at a rapid pace, including how teams find and develop quarterbacks. This is definitely something notable to share, however.