This class is MUCH better than the 2022 class. But I do think that far too many are underwhelming and the first round may not be as bountiful as expected. I wonder to what degree transfers and NILs are impacting that.
Young, Stroud, and Hooker are first rounders in any draft. Hall, McCall, and Penix are likely better than anyone in last years draft. If Penix didn't have the injury history (but he does) then he'd be right with that first group.
The number of times I have seen "there are no Round 1 QBs in this year's draft" and then see 2 or 3 go in the top ten (not that they deserved it)... the amount of hype and FOLO around QB picks almost always pushes guys up the board. Based on the college season so far I would say CJ Stroud and Hooker have a ticket to the 1st round.
Ken, I'm surprised you like Hooker so much. He seems very much like the type of QB you usually would be writing about as "overrated by the media." What has you so sold? For me, I find him a product of an extremely well schemed college offense, bolstered by a 1st round tackle and WR (Hyatt looks like a much better prospect than Hooker IMO). He's really inconsistent with his accuracy as well.
I think we are simply seeing the reality with QB classes here: most of these guys are not all that great. They are good college players, and fun to watch, sure. But of these guys, only 3 or 4 will go in the first round. Maybe a few more in rounds 2-3. We're witnessing the separation.
Thank you for the input! I'm definitely going to take a closer look at Hooker with this in mind. This season has been so busy for me, I haven't had as much time to watch every QB as I did last year. So I've unfortunately had to put off a lot of my own analysis until after the NFL season is over. I started to get a little higher on Hooker recently, but will keep your notes in mind.
Oct 26, 2022·edited Oct 26, 2022Liked by Seaside Joe
Is there really much difference between Hooker and Stroud though? I think you could make the same comments about Stroud (surrounded by 5* talent). Their completion % and avg completion yds are almost identical. Hooker has thrown fewer TDs but also fewer INTs, and so a much better raitio (18:1 vs Stroud 34:5). I would actually be less certain about Stroud making it at the next level given the history of OSU QBs in the NFL.
The main difference I see is top end talent, and age. Hooker will be 25 when he starts his NFL career, Stroud just turned 21. I think Stroud has a remarkable arm. Personally, I'm with you. I doubt the guy will ever be a great QB in the NFL. But, given John Schneider's public preference for upside at the position, we can't rule out the Hawks taking a chance on Stroud's special arm. Because of that, I'm doing my best to avoid writing off players that I normally would rule out.
Stats can lie though. He rarely has to make a read, and is throwing to wide open receivers that are both talented and schemed open by smart play design. Bubble screens also massively inflate completion percentage. I watched the game against Bama. First thing, Jalen Hyatt put up 5 tds and was unguardable. Hooker threw one pick, and had another called back due to unrelated penalty. Aside from being the worst defensive performance I've ever seen by a Saban coached team (little pass rush, a secondary that looked lost, no ability to cover Hyatt deep), you have to pay attention to where the ball goes on film.
This is why completion percentage doesn't tell the full story. When you watch the tape, you see some nice throws, mixed in with some bad misses. The offense is well designed though, leading to a high completion percentage as long as the QB can make a simple throw. He has some really nice deep throws, and those will make highlights and create hype. Yet when you actually watch what he does, you'll see someone who has talent, but is not a consistent passer.
Lastly, let's think of other QBs with good college completion percentages, and see if we'd regard them as accurate. Justin Fields, widely criticized for his accuracy as a pro, had a 68.4 completion percentage. In college, Mitch Trubisky was a 67.5% passer. Completion percentage doesn't tell you the context of that accuracy. As mentioned, bubble screens drive completion percentage through the roof. To really get a judgement on accuracy, watch the player, see where the ball goes relative to the receiver. Does the player have to make a ridiculous play to catch it? Does it hit the receiver in stride? Does he lead the player into coverage? Did he put the ball at risk of interception? The answers to these give you a lot more information than you'll get from a stat sheet.
First a note on the link: the link brings you to the first tab which is the full cast. Look for the next tab "All Cast Stats" where you can compare stats to date.
If I were to look at the ratings column and treat it as a semester grade the following are below C level:
Traits Anthony Richardson
Traits Tanner McKee
Leaders Will Rogers
Underdogs Cam Ward
Hype Tyler Van Dyke
These guys are drowning and will have to retake the class if they don't get kicked out of school.
D.J. Uiagalelei is just barely making it but he is treading water like crazy. I would leave him in for now.
Yes, Nix should be in. Duggan and Daniels are extremely close which I think is reflected in the voting. I agree with Van Dyke and everyone but Bennett being dropped. Bennett is up there with the best in everything but TDs. Is that because he doesn't have to force it? Georgia has 24 rushing TDs, just 2 off of the nation's highest total.
Here's an article showing a statical comparison of SEC QBs through 8 weeks.
It's a good point but I think it's obvious Brady, a 6th round draft pick, is an outlier. For comparison, in 2001 when he won his first Super Bowl, only one quaterback with over 2500 yards had less than 11 interceptions (Rich Gannon) and Brady had 12. The average completion rate in the NFL is about 65% so Brady has been roughly at or slightly above average in percentage and intereceptions. What you're talking about is his leadership, his ability to push his team to victory. Daryl Lamonica (and technically Otto Graham) were the only QBs to have higher winning percentage although Manning and Farve are right there as well. That leadership is why Young may be a better QB than Stroud or Hooker.
My contention is that in college, you'd better be good on completions and ints because QBs don't ususally improve in those areas in the NFL (compared to their college stats). If you have a completion rate under 60% in college you'll be a disaster in the NFL. If you have a 70% rate in college you will go down to 65% in the pros. That's why what Geno is doing is so amazing.
Let Bo Nx in, he's knocking on the door hard and it's starting to get colder outside in Oregon.
Van Dyke to stay in. Bo Nix to join.
My impression is that few if any of this years' class of QB's will deserve a first round grade.
This class is MUCH better than the 2022 class. But I do think that far too many are underwhelming and the first round may not be as bountiful as expected. I wonder to what degree transfers and NILs are impacting that.
Young, Stroud, and Hooker are first rounders in any draft. Hall, McCall, and Penix are likely better than anyone in last years draft. If Penix didn't have the injury history (but he does) then he'd be right with that first group.
The number of times I have seen "there are no Round 1 QBs in this year's draft" and then see 2 or 3 go in the top ten (not that they deserved it)... the amount of hype and FOLO around QB picks almost always pushes guys up the board. Based on the college season so far I would say CJ Stroud and Hooker have a ticket to the 1st round.
Ken, I'm surprised you like Hooker so much. He seems very much like the type of QB you usually would be writing about as "overrated by the media." What has you so sold? For me, I find him a product of an extremely well schemed college offense, bolstered by a 1st round tackle and WR (Hyatt looks like a much better prospect than Hooker IMO). He's really inconsistent with his accuracy as well.
I think we are simply seeing the reality with QB classes here: most of these guys are not all that great. They are good college players, and fun to watch, sure. But of these guys, only 3 or 4 will go in the first round. Maybe a few more in rounds 2-3. We're witnessing the separation.
Thank you for the input! I'm definitely going to take a closer look at Hooker with this in mind. This season has been so busy for me, I haven't had as much time to watch every QB as I did last year. So I've unfortunately had to put off a lot of my own analysis until after the NFL season is over. I started to get a little higher on Hooker recently, but will keep your notes in mind.
How does an inconsistent QB have a 70% accuracy rate and the longest yards per catch in the SEC?
Is there really much difference between Hooker and Stroud though? I think you could make the same comments about Stroud (surrounded by 5* talent). Their completion % and avg completion yds are almost identical. Hooker has thrown fewer TDs but also fewer INTs, and so a much better raitio (18:1 vs Stroud 34:5). I would actually be less certain about Stroud making it at the next level given the history of OSU QBs in the NFL.
The main difference I see is top end talent, and age. Hooker will be 25 when he starts his NFL career, Stroud just turned 21. I think Stroud has a remarkable arm. Personally, I'm with you. I doubt the guy will ever be a great QB in the NFL. But, given John Schneider's public preference for upside at the position, we can't rule out the Hawks taking a chance on Stroud's special arm. Because of that, I'm doing my best to avoid writing off players that I normally would rule out.
How does an inconsistent QB have a 70% accuracy rate and the longest yards per catch in the SEC? He beat Alabama.
Stats can lie though. He rarely has to make a read, and is throwing to wide open receivers that are both talented and schemed open by smart play design. Bubble screens also massively inflate completion percentage. I watched the game against Bama. First thing, Jalen Hyatt put up 5 tds and was unguardable. Hooker threw one pick, and had another called back due to unrelated penalty. Aside from being the worst defensive performance I've ever seen by a Saban coached team (little pass rush, a secondary that looked lost, no ability to cover Hyatt deep), you have to pay attention to where the ball goes on film.
This is why completion percentage doesn't tell the full story. When you watch the tape, you see some nice throws, mixed in with some bad misses. The offense is well designed though, leading to a high completion percentage as long as the QB can make a simple throw. He has some really nice deep throws, and those will make highlights and create hype. Yet when you actually watch what he does, you'll see someone who has talent, but is not a consistent passer.
Lastly, let's think of other QBs with good college completion percentages, and see if we'd regard them as accurate. Justin Fields, widely criticized for his accuracy as a pro, had a 68.4 completion percentage. In college, Mitch Trubisky was a 67.5% passer. Completion percentage doesn't tell you the context of that accuracy. As mentioned, bubble screens drive completion percentage through the roof. To really get a judgement on accuracy, watch the player, see where the ball goes relative to the receiver. Does the player have to make a ridiculous play to catch it? Does it hit the receiver in stride? Does he lead the player into coverage? Did he put the ball at risk of interception? The answers to these give you a lot more information than you'll get from a stat sheet.
First a note on the link: the link brings you to the first tab which is the full cast. Look for the next tab "All Cast Stats" where you can compare stats to date.
If I were to look at the ratings column and treat it as a semester grade the following are below C level:
Traits Anthony Richardson
Traits Tanner McKee
Leaders Will Rogers
Underdogs Cam Ward
Hype Tyler Van Dyke
These guys are drowning and will have to retake the class if they don't get kicked out of school.
D.J. Uiagalelei is just barely making it but he is treading water like crazy. I would leave him in for now.
*Bo Nix* - 5 letters makes a complete name! Who else is that efficient?
That's right! We shouldn't Nix Bo.
Yes, Nix should be in. Duggan and Daniels are extremely close which I think is reflected in the voting. I agree with Van Dyke and everyone but Bennett being dropped. Bennett is up there with the best in everything but TDs. Is that because he doesn't have to force it? Georgia has 24 rushing TDs, just 2 off of the nation's highest total.
Here's an article showing a statical comparison of SEC QBs through 8 weeks.
https://lsutigerswire.usatoday.com/lists/sec-quarterbacks-statistical-comparisons-jayden-daniels-bryce-young-hendon-hooker-will-rogers/
Hooker stands out as the best overall (IMO). I had discounted Will Levis but his stats are in line with the better QBs in the conference.
I really Like watching Levis, but Interceptions are a BIG Problem. Age is no issue for me, as he may not have to sit as long as others.
The two most important stats for a QB are completion percentage and turnovers.
Or wins, titles,... :)
Btw Tom Brady's Career % is 64,4 and his first 6 seasons He had 12 or 14 ints
It's a good point but I think it's obvious Brady, a 6th round draft pick, is an outlier. For comparison, in 2001 when he won his first Super Bowl, only one quaterback with over 2500 yards had less than 11 interceptions (Rich Gannon) and Brady had 12. The average completion rate in the NFL is about 65% so Brady has been roughly at or slightly above average in percentage and intereceptions. What you're talking about is his leadership, his ability to push his team to victory. Daryl Lamonica (and technically Otto Graham) were the only QBs to have higher winning percentage although Manning and Farve are right there as well. That leadership is why Young may be a better QB than Stroud or Hooker.
My contention is that in college, you'd better be good on completions and ints because QBs don't ususally improve in those areas in the NFL (compared to their college stats). If you have a completion rate under 60% in college you'll be a disaster in the NFL. If you have a 70% rate in college you will go down to 65% in the pros. That's why what Geno is doing is so amazing.