Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Wilson: Should Seahawks fans prepare for a new QB?
Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Wilson: Should Seahawks fans prepare for a new QB?
Geno Smith will talk to other teams, Seattle should be prepared to talk to other QBs: Seaside Joe 1455
Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Wilson: Should Seahawks fans prepare for a new QB?
Let me begin this post with a mission statement for the article:
The following newsletter about the impending quarterback carousel is not intended to suggest that the Seattle Seahawks acquire any of these players. It is not intended to implore Seahawks fans to want somebody other than Geno Smith. And it is not intended to disrespect Geno Smith or to counterpunch a potential quarterback loss with an equal or disproportionate quarterback value.
The intention of today’s article is to shed light on the 2023 quarterback market at a time when the entire Seattle media landscape and all of Seahawks fans are solely focused on the future and potential cost of one Geno Smith. This is a revelation of information, not an imploration of exploration: What else is out there?
It doesn’t hurt for Seahawks fans to be aware of the quarterback market because I guarantee that the front office has already been diligently exploring their options. For at least a year.
Though there was a lot of disagreement over Geno’s 2023 value during the season, I believe that at this point most Seahawks fans have come to accept a scenario without Geno because they’ve heard reports of $40-$45 million per year for him and Daniel Jones. Whether those reports are true (and I don’t see why they wouldn’t be because at this stage of negotiations, agents for Smith and Jones should be asking for the moon) and whether those quarterbacks come close to their demands is sort of inconsequential.
I’ve argued that the Seahawks simply can’t afford a quarterback franchise tag; even if you restructure Quandre Diggs’ contract, cut Shelby Harris and Gabe Jackson, trade Noah Fant, and extend Uchenna Nwosu, Seattle would still be cutting it close to afford the $32.4 million for Geno and their 2023 rookie class while committing more salary cap in the future and needing to replace quite a few outgoing starters.
And that’s just for a Geno Smith one-year rental.
But in actuality, I think the people arguing against a Geno franchise tag or a longer contract extension are mostly arguing against a boogeyman Seahawks fan who doesn’t exist apart from maybe Gregg Bell.
It’s sort of how like analytics folks have spent the last couple years arguing about teams going for it on fourth downs…but who are they arguing against? I have yet to meet a fan who doesn’t want their team to go for it on fourth down more often.
The biggest object between Geno Smith and the free agent market is probably Pete Carroll’s loyalty to football players on the Seahawks who he is fond of, and I’m certain that Pete likes Geno a lot. But he also loved Bobby Wagner.
Whether the Seahawks eventually come to an agreement that keeps Geno in Seattle for 2023 or not, which nobody has the answer to today, I’m fairly certain of a few things:
a) The Seahawks aren’t the team that can offer Geno the most money
b) Geno’s agent Chafie Fields is aware of that
c) Pete Carroll isn’t the type to sacrifice three or four players just to keep one player
It leads me to believe that at best, Geno will have the opportunity to negotiate with other teams, even if he’s franchise tagged. And that means that Seattle has to be acting as if they’re one of the NFL teams that doesn’t have a starting quarterback in place for 2023.
Therefore, the Seahawks situation at quarterback this offseason is exactly as it would have appeared to Pete and John Schneider a year ago: They’re looking. It’s also what they would do if they were having good faith negotiations with Geno’s agent to get a contract done, to leverage their other options against their preferred choice.
Under no circumstances should the Seahawks be solely focused on a single player; or two players, if we’re counting Drew Lock.
I have indeed addressed the other QB options on Seaside Joe before. I have also assessed that Geno’s options for teams to go to may not be as expansive as many assume; it’s not a foregone conclusion that talking to other teams, even as an unrestrictred free agent, would lead to Geno Smith signing elsewhere. He could come back and it could be for a lot less than the assumed market value.
But if Geno and Chafie are allowed to court other suitors, surely the Seattle Seahawks are allowed to woo potential replacements. Today’s question is again as simple as the one in the opening statement: Who are they?
What would they cost?
And who is your daddy and what does he do?
As I wrote in December, the expansive QB market (free agents, trades, cap casualties, the draft) should actually lower Geno’s asking price. It’s just too early to expect that asking price to drop.
We are rip-roarin’ towards 1,700 total subscribers, so please do Seaside Joe a favor and consider a) FREE subscription if you’re not on already and b) an easy $5/month to help support the newsletter and keep us rolling as the most comprehensive and realistic Seahawks website anywhere.
Have you tried navigating literally any news website on your phone? I can’t read any article these days without insane popup ads and usually a roadblock towards even hitting the back button. You won’t get that with the Seaside Joe newsletter! So please consider subscribing! Thank you!
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Cost: Draft picks, fully-guaranteed contract
I sense parallels between Lamar Jackson and Jalen Ramsey, the Rams cornerback who got “sick” and a “back injury” in 2019, sitting out his final three games with the Jaguars in 2019 before forcing a trade to L.A. when he didn’t get the contract offers he wanted. Whatever the real story is between Lamar and the Ravens in contract negotiations, I do not sense that he will play for Baltimore ever again…unless he gets the contract he’s asking for, which by all accounts is fully-guaranteed.
There aren’t just contradictions at ESPN about Lamar’s contract requests, but also contradictions from Lamar’s camp and NFLPA director DeMaurice Smith, who recently compared Jackson’s requested deal to the contract of Deshaun Watson.
Watson has an outlier contract of $230 million, fully-guaranteed. How did Watson reach a number like this when no other QB at the time had more than $101 million fully-guaranteed? He forced the Texans to trade him, which opened a bidding war, which allowed his agents to force Cleveland’s hand in offering him a fully-guaranteed contract so that he wouldn’t go to the Falcons.
Is there a team out there that believes in Lamar as much as the Browns believed in Watson? Well, maybe. Despite Lamar’s last couple of seasons being marred by injury and average passing stats, Watson’s recent track record was even harder to look at prior to Cleveland trading three first round picks and more for his services.
Instead of focusing on teams with 2023 cap space, I would instead turn to teams that had more 2024 cap space, which at this point includes the Bears, Texans, Giants, Falcons, Patriots, Titans, Panthers, Colts, Lions, Raiders, and Jets.
The Seahawks are shown above between Las Vegas and the Jets, but you’ll notice that they only have 21 players under contract, there’s a bit less wiggle room there at the moment. And they can’t even come close to the cap space of Chicago, Houston, Atlanta, New England, and the Giants.
If the Bears want Lamar Jackson, it would be easy. They could offer the Ravens the number one pick in the draft, Justin Fields, and pay him what he wants. If Baltimore would need more than that in return, I don’t know, but the number one pick in the draft and arguably a younger version of Lamar would be an historic offer for a franchise quarterback. The Texans could compete, though it wouldn’t get Lamar out of the AFC.
Setting aside your personal take on Lamar Jackson, I think what Seahawks fans really need to assess is that the cost in draft picks and contract is far too outlandish to ever seriously consider him as a Pete Carroll target. He’s a player who will be tagged by Baltimore and in my opinion, traded in a deal similar to that of Watson a year ago. If he signs a long-term contract with the Ravens, then it’s a moot point anyway.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Cost: Draft picks, $59 million
Again, I would set aside personal feelings in this case. If the Seahawks were well-positioned to win the Super Bowl in 2023, then Rodgers would be a good “all-in” candidate for a title run, maybe two. He actually wouldn’t cost much against the 2023 and 2024 cap: $15.8 million and $32.5 million, respectively.
But he has a huge $59 million option and the team acquiring Rodgers can’t know for sure if he’ll even play beyond 2023. Or if he’ll be good.
It all makes a trade very complicated and why Rodgers is expected to stay in Green Bay: The Packers would want a great return, but how many teams are ready and willing to take that chance?
It doesn’t feel like the Seahawks would ever be that team. Perhaps the only thing that could push them into a deal like that one would be if current ownership overrided Pete and John because similar to the Broncos sale in 2022, they thought a marquee QB acquisition would make Seattle a more valuable and attractive franchise on the market in 2024.
But because Rodgers will be 41 next year, that doesn’t seem like a probable factor.
Daniel Jones, Giants
Cost: Picks, contract extension
The franchise tag could be all but guaranteed, but is it 100%? In any case, it would be the non-exclusive tag and we might yet see Jones jump ship if the Giants don’t reach a long-term agreement with his new agents. That would mean that Jones is at least able to talk to the teams that potentially make a play for Lamar and lose out, even if it means trading two first round picks. That seems wild, but hypothetically if you’re the Vikings is Jones preferable to Kirk Cousins and the best available QB at pick 23? Minnesota could trade Cousins and their first rounder to the Giants, agreeing to pay Jones what he wants—they paid Cousins what he wanted.
Derek Carr, FA
Cost: ?
I think comparing the values of Carr and Geno Smith is an interesting proposition. Who will have more teams after his services? Carr may have found out in his two free agents visits already (Saints, Jets) that he’s not any franchise’s top priority at this point. If that’s the case, then why should we expect Geno to be a top priority?
One of them was better in 2022. The other has a nine-year track record and 142 career starts. Maybe you don’t love what you’re getting with Carr, but at least teams feel more assured that they know what they’re getting.
Carr’s market may not be realized until after teams know what’s going to happen with Lamar and Rodgers, and the fallout if either or both of those players are traded. He could also be waiting after Daniel Jones and others—we really don’t know for certain how many teams will see Carr as a significant upgrade to whoever they’ve got signed by mid-March.
What if his stock has dropped as dramatically as Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo’s did in 2022? He might not be that costly of a fallback option for the teams who are left in need, and Carr might have to settle for a one-year “prove it” deal to re-up his value for the 2024 market.
Ryan Tannehill, Titans
Cost: ?
I don’t think any of Tennessee’s cuts last week signaled “rebuild” moves. They were all pretty standard releases for veteran players being paid too much. But Tannehill might be a veteran player being paid too much. I would be surprised if the Titans aren’t shopping Tannehill at the combine this week. Same as Carr though, Tennessee can’t expect a full market until after other dominoes have fallen.
Tannehill has a $27 million base salary in 2023, but none of it is guaranteed. The Titans save $17.8 million by releasing or trading him. The only reason a team might trade for Tannehill is to secure his services but like Carr, it may be more realistic that teams are waiting until he’s cut.
Other veterans who could be traded or cut could include Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Cousins.
Jimmy Garoppolo, FA
Cost: FA contract
I mentioned Garoppolo last summer as a potential fallback plan for Seattle if the 49ers released him, but instead the two sides worked out a pay cut to keep him in San Francisco for 2022. Without being a fantastic starter by any means, I’m surprised how under the radar Garoppolo has been this month because he’s a free agent who could at least be as adequate as Carr, Tannehill, Cousins, and Geno; except without any media coverage.
When I think of comparisons, I go back to Sam Bradford when he signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the Cardinals in 2018. Perhaps that ultimately becomes the market for these types, two-year contracts that guarantee them $25 million spread out over multiple seasons and team options if the quarterback outplays his deal.
Because if I’m a GM talking to Carr and Geno, I’m letting them know that I am just as comfortable with Garoppolo at 70-80% of the cost.
Matt Ryan, Colts
Cost: Veteran FA contract
Ryan’s intention to play in 2023 likely leads to his release by Indianapolis and then a market similar to Philip Rivers when he signed with the Colts in 2020. There at least has to be some debate as to whether Ryan should be handed a starting job, but perhaps for a team that drafts a first round quarterback they will look to him as the bridge and mentor. Think of how that worked out for Kurt Warner and Arizona in 2005, when the Cardinals picked Matt Leinart and expected to hand him the keys shortly thereafter.
In a better situation than the 2022 Colts, Ryan may yet be adequate. It’s not uncharacteristic for Seattle to wait until after the first six or seven quarterbacks sign and if they part with Geno Smith, to have Ryan serve a role next to (hypothetically) Drew Lock and a day two pick.
That’s basically the same as the Matt Hasselbeck/Charlie Whitehurst/Tarvaris Jackson or Matt Flynn/Jackson/Russell Wilson formula.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Cost: Draft picks
Assessing all possible moves, the Dolphins may choose to go after someone who they feel is an upgrade to Tua. Opinions on Tua are divisive and mixed and he’s up for a potential contract extension in 2023. What it would cost to acquire Tua is an interesting question, but the Dolphins were open to getting Tom Brady in 2022 and they could be concerned about Tua’s long-term health. Though he led the NFL in Y/A and passer rating in 2022, Tua’s lack of arm strength and extensive injury history could put him on the market.
Zach Wilson, Jets
Cost: 3rd-5th round draft pick?
If the Jets trade Wilson after the draft (and after June 1) then they will save $3.8 million against the 2023 cap. But if a team ups their draft pick compensation offer, a pre-draft Wilson trade is a little costlier for New York with an $11 million dead money cap hit. The Jets aren’t quite cap rich and if they make a veteran QB addition—which by all accounts is inevitable—then they need that space.
Not long ago, Jets GM Joe Douglas ripped off Carolina in the Sam Darnold trade. It’s hard to assess what kind of return Wilson would command after his abysmal first two seasons, but I’ve definitely advocated for the conversation because I think there’s definitely something there.
Unlike Darnold, Wilson is not a QB you trade for to start. He’s a QB you acquire because you didn’t or couldn’t get a prospect in the draft and you think you can fix him. The only reason New York wouldn’t keep him, like the 49ers are probable to keep Trey Lance, is that the Jets can’t hide how bad they think that he is, getting benched multiple times in 2022 and then looking for a new starter this offseason already.
It’s not about, “Well if the Seahawks part with Geno and lose Lock, they can turn to Zach Wilson as a starter.” It’s really that if the Seahawks don’t want to draft a quarterback this year, they could consider trading one of their mid-round picks for a 23-year-old prospect (younger than Will Levis) as a developmental piece.
Other non-starters: Baker Mayfield (FA), Darnold (FA), Teddy Bridgewater (FA), Jacoby Brissett (FA), Joe Flacco (FA), Andy Dalton (FA), Mike White (FA), Taylor Heinicke (FA), Gardner Minshew (FA), Marcus Mariota (Cap Casualty Candidate), Mitchell Trubisky (CCC), Jordan Love (Trade Market), Jameis Winston (CCC)
Whether the Patriots are considering a move with Mac Jones, the Bears with Justin Fields, or the 49ers with Lance is an interesting question. Whether any of them could be handed a starting job right away is another.
The fact that there are so many questions around the league at quarterback right now can only benefit the Seahawks.
Do you think Lock should have been the starter last year?
Honestly, trade for Wilson and resign Lock for a couple years. We should have signed Geno for a couple years last year so we'd have leverage using the "what you'd get next year if we made sure you played for us or nobody" baseline that the franchise tag represents. How does Geno's contact negotiations look this year is that baseline was "well we have you under contract for $4 mil" vs "we could tag you for $32 mil"? 3 years $100 mil looks instead like 3 years $72 mil just based on math laid out here on this blog previously. What fan says no to that?