2023 NFL Draft order report: Early update on teams that could pick QB next year
2023 NFL Draft order report: Early update on teams that could pick QB next year
Seaside Joe 1294, 9/20/2022: Half of the NFL could eye quarterbacks in draft
Every season we see midseason flips. Teams that either started hot or started cold and eventually end up with a middling record, if not dramatically turned around. The Seahawks have regularly been one of these teams under Pete Carroll, often finishing seasons better than how they start.
Consider this update to be nothing more than its intention, which is to give an early report on the franchises that could be looking to draft a quarterback in 2023 and not necessarily the ones that will. I am casting a wide net on purpose.
Surprise Teams
Las Vegas Raiders (0-2)
Josh McDaniels may still dream of casting his own quarterback and the three-year extension that Derek Carr signed recently is not very binding. Las Vegas has not done much scoring to open the season and the Raiders find themselves in an early 0-2 hole.
Tennessee Titans (0-2)
Presence of Malik Willis should not prevent Titans from considering quarterbacks if they don’t recover from 0-2 start. Already dropped a game to the Giants. At home.
Chicago Bears (1-1)
The current head coach and GM did not draft Justin Fields. There is a chance that Chicago is in position to pick first overall and have their pick of an elite quarterback class, which could lead to trading Fields to one of the teams on this list that misses out on the draft crop.
New England Patriots (1-1)
Patriots have done too much winning to not be constantly looking for reasons to get people to watch them…and they aren’t watchable right now with Mac Jones. If New England loses nine or more games, it’s possible Jones is seen as replaceable.
Minnesota Vikings (1-1)
Kirk Cousins is 1-1 in the playoffs with the Vikings. If he is 1-2 or still 1-1 by next year, Minnesota needs to draft his replacement.
Retirements
Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1)
2012-Peyton Manning nearly retires, goes to the Broncos
2020-Andrew Luck retires
2021-Philip Rivers retires
2022-Carson Wentz should probably retire
2023-Matt Ryan?
It’s been a bad look for a franchise that I’ve long called one of the lowkey worst-run organizations in the league. Having the first overall picks in 1998 and 2012 covered up a lot of issues that would have had them at the bottom with the Lions and Browns. Indy has Washington’s second round pick, if Wentz doesn’t retire. If he misses more than 25% of the season, it’s a third—so it will probably be a third.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
Reasonable chance that Tom Brady does move on after the season, either to retirement or another franchise. Has anyone heard from Kyle Trask in the last 18 months? I could see Tampa Bay being a team with a late first round pick that trades it for a quarterback, which brings me back to Justin Fields.
Right Down the Middle
Carolina Panthers (0-2)
No question, if the Panthers have a high pick they are using it on a quarterback. This has been the most desperate (and unhinged) team on the quarterback market over the last few years.
Atlanta Falcons (0-2)
Seahawks vs. Falcons is the “2023 draft order game of the week.” The Falcons thought they were trading for Deshaun Watson. They ended up with Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder. The Falcons are also two drives away from being 2-0 with wins over the Saints and Rams. Is that the best they had to offer or signs of being a good team? I have a hard time believing that Atlanta won’t be picking in the top-five. Arthur Blank bought the team in Michael Vick’s second year and then the Falcons chose Matt Ryan in the top-three, so he probably likes the idea of drafting a quarterback early.
Houston Texans (0-1-1)
Drafting a quarterback early is what GM Nick Caserio has been working on day and night for the last 18 months. The team had no first round pick in 2021. The class didn’t have a top-10 quarterback in 2022. Houston has been tanking 24-7-365 to get in position for Bryce Young or choose-your-own. Caserio is a former Patriots exec and he knows the value of a franchise quarterback. I expect him to increase his odds by not waiting until the sixth round.
The Texans also have the Browns’ 2023 first round pick and their third round pick, as well as being the only team with two 2024 first round picks. For example: if Houston is picking tenth, and they spot a team in the top-two or top-three that doesn’t need a quarterback, then they could have the capital to make a trade. Which they did do to get Watson in 2017.
I was wrong, Texans vs Bears might be “draft order game of the week.”
Washington Commanders (1-1)
Organizations have consistently given up on Carson Wentz.
Detroit Lions (1-1)
They’ve been the most patient team under GM Brad Holmes. Not at all like the usual Lions. The foundation is set and it looks like…what’s the opposite of a Lion? I’m personally very excited to see Jameson Williams debut. Detroit may end up with a record that keeps them out of the top-16, but they also have the Rams’ 2023 first round pick. Jared Goff shouldn’t keep the team from drafting a quarterback—even if they made the playoffs. Goff made the playoffs with the Rams and won a game against the Seahawks in the same year that he was traded.
Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
The only team with two first and two second round picks in 2023. That will change, other teams will make trades. The Seahawks may also have the best-looking additional first round pick right now based on how Denver has played. Around a .500 record would mean a pick in the middle of the first round.
New York Giants (2-0)
I went to check if he’s fumbled yet this year to see if Daniel Jones has changed at all this season. He hasn’t. Changed, that is. He has fumbled. Ignore if he has a “decent completion percentage.” A quarterback’s completion percentage is the “Sam Bradford stat” in my eyes. Giants GM Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll will want to draft their own quarterback and yes in the mold of Josh Allen. Which is basically what people are saying about every team and quarterback prospect, regardless of whether they worked for the Bills or not.
That’s 14 teams. Almost half of the league.
However, I don’t think we can necessarily rule out every team that we believe we can rule out today. Consider trying to argue that to a Cardinals fan, after two weeks of Josh Rosen, that the team would be drafting a QB first overall in less than a year.
The Packers drafted Jordan Love. The Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes. Are there some other potentially weird separations?
These are not teams that I expect to draft a quarterback! Wide net.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
Kenny Pickett was kind of a shot in the dark and by a GM who no longer works there. It’s not that weird. For the Steelers, Mitchell Trubisky has already proven to not be the answer.
Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
I am sure that they will pay Lamar Jackson. But they haven’t done it yet.
Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Up until about 18 hours ago, nobody would have second-guessed this. The Eagles have two first round picks, one from New Orleans.
New Orleans Saints (1-1)
They would be “Right down the middle” but the Saints don’t have a first round pick. Isn’t that weird? They basically traded it for Trevor Penning! How did that one slip by me?
Miami Dolphins (1-1)
It seems like Tua Tagovailoa has pulled the Dolphins out of this consideration. The Dolphins don’t have their own first round pick, but they do have the 49ers’ first. At this point, they’ll probably just use it on a wide receiver.
How bazaar Kenneth.
This is like the third or fourth topic you have addressed lately that I have been musing over.
I was just working up this list of potential QB buyers yesterday. You included more potential suitors than I did.
Some of these will get proven veterans vs risking it all on a rookie. Pete will likely double down. Whether it be to keep Drew no Locksmith around And draft strong for the position or even triple up with a 4th rounder as well (McCall should be there, right?).
You know he will cover his base...Penix Jr sure has looked interesting too. Nevertheless, I remain More intrigued by the other early draft choices they may make - let the draft come to them...NO trading up and wasting the opportunity to build this thing right!
Da Bears are 1-1. They beat the Niners on opening week.