21 Comments

So what's our outlook now that we have the 5th pick, Joe?

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2024 may be the draft we all thought this year would be.

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Meh, I think that is the same wishful thinking that has left many disappointed this year. This isn't any worse than a normal QB draft. It may honestly be better. There are 4 prospects that have a legitimate chance of going in the first round. That's almost as good as the "great" 2021 class. Or the legendary 2012 draft. And it's more than the 2017 draft that brought Mahomes and Watson into the league.

My point is that this being a "bad" QB draft is more an issue of perception than reality. There was so much hype for prospects at the start of the year, with some foolishly claiming that 6 QBs could go in the 1st round. That was never going to happen, but it's standard procedure to hype up "next year" as better to build the buzz around the draft. Remember that in 2021, many people were talking about how great the QBs in the 2022 class were (with Howell, Rattler, Willis, Carson Strong, and Matt Corral being projected as 1st round picks after the 2021 draft). This year has 4 legitimate prospects that I can imagine being superstars within 3 years. That's a good QB class.

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I think you'll love the Football Outsiders mock draft:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/walkthrough/2023/cj-stroud-goes-first-2023-nfl-mock-draft-version-05

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Unless Jamal Adams makes a huge difference and we pick up significant d-line and linebacker help in free agency, we might finish with a worse record in 2023 with this draft. We would definitely be pointing at 2024 in both guy's second year. The good thing would be that Lockett might be able to play a little less and preserve his body since he's signed through 2025.

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Young & Johnston for Rd 1, Johnston would be controversial to most, but we also basically all agree this team needs a QB this year or next & a WR3. So two major needs fixed, not sure we could argue too much with that.

Youngs question of course is size, but there seem to be no issues on any other aspect of his game or character. Plus we can still afford to slowly introduce him this year, giving us one more season to sort out the interior o-line (maybe with a Rd2 pick on Van Pran/Schmitz, or a Frazier/Oluwatimi later down the rounds, with one or two FA pieces).

Johnston takes pressure off Lockett so we can indeed work to protect his health and maximise his deep threat prowess. It also creates another match-up question for defences. Would be very very hard to cover against Walker out the backfield, Fant, Metcalf, Lockett and another big bodied receiver. Plus also giving us room to manoeuvre on Metcalf and Lockett as their cap hits get bigger, any injury problems or drop-off in production and we have the replacement ready in-house.

I look at this mock and it says to me, the Hawks have gone defence heavy in FA. PC gets his pieces to "win-now" on defence on shorter but bigger contracts, JS gets his longer term build in the Draft around a hopefully great duo. (Although in this mock, every single LB would be available for the second pick and i'd expect us to split one pick to offence for JS and one to PC for defence, and they Andre Carter going in Rd1 i'm not going to rank this too highly on the list of "mocks i think are realistic")

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Young is 99% going to Texas with the first pick. I don't think we need a QB and I'd only take Young because he may be special. I doubt Johnson will be available with the 18th pick but you're right, we do need a third option; the Jets game made that clear. I like your choices for center. Andre Carter has been forgotten about because of his eligibility issues. Now that those are settled I suspect he'll move up in the rankings.

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(Banned)Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023

I wouldn't be shocked if Dougan's got drafted but I think it's most likely he doesn't get the call. For exactly the reason Kenneth stated. Teams don't draft backup QBs. Backups are typically failed starters. None of the experts I listen to have suggested Dugan has what it takes to start in the NFL. Of course they could be wrong. Everyone's clear he has great character and is tough as nails. That said, I expect he'll be a UDFA. In the event he gets picked, it will likely be because some team took a flier in the 6th or 7th round.

Stroud looked great in the game against Georgia. Best he's ever looked. Does it raise him to the top of the first round? I'd not be surprised. In fact, that's what I'm expecting. Likely top 10. Possibly top 5. If Seattle took him, I wouldn't be horrified. I'd just hope they knew what they were doing -- meaning I would hope it worked out. The guy seems to have all the tools, despite the knock on Ohio State QBs.

Richardson's the guy I'd love to get in the third round. If I knew he'd still be there when Seattle came on the clock on day three, I'd advocate for not using a first rounder on Young or Stroud. Young scares me because of his lack of stature but it's impossible to watch him play and not be intrigued. I'm not sold on Levis. Nice arcing moon ball, excellent strength and stature, but I don't get the sense he's anything but a project. As a day three pick, I'd be fine. Just not a major investment. Maybe 2023 can be Dru Lock's year to shine.

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What is it that you like so much about Richardson? He posted a 54% completion percentage with 17 TDs and 9 Ints. His biggest weakness is fundamentals. He's very erratic which makes him inaccurate. Zach Wilson has bad fundamentals and Richardson's are worse. How's that working out? I know his potential is tantalizing but I'm not convinced he can be taught to maintain consistent technique

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(Banned)Jan 6, 2023·edited Jan 6, 2023

Well, that's it. His potential is off the charts. Possibly the most of anyone coming out this year. Of course we know it's one of those high ceiling, low floor situations. Which is why I see him as a potential good value on day three. If the coaches believe they have a good shot at bringing out his potential. We'll see how it's working out with Drew Lock.

The QB position can be tragic at times. When you run into one of these guys with off-the-charts potential who can't manage to harness it. When I followed baseball, I thought the same of pitchers. Guys with really live arms and great stature who couldn't learn to pitch. Or whose arms would blow out long before they mastered the craft. Though, really, it's just sports. Damar Hamlin's injury brings it all home. A sixth round draft pick, a guy who could easily never have had an opportunity in the NFL, somehow becomes a starter in year two and now his career may be over. Assuming he survives at all, which is unusual and extreme, but we've seen the occasional story about the kid who collapses on the field in high school and dies.

One guy becomes phenomenally successful, another guy almost exactly the same busts. A million variables separate one from the other; yet the differences may be incredibly small and not under the players' control. Having the right coach at the right time, as an example. (Or an untimely injury -- a first to the jaw in Geno's case.) Russell Wilson gets drafted by Seattle and it's a good fit. If he had gone elsewhere, maybe (like lots of short QBs before) he'd never get the chance. Or the coaches don't emphasize sliding -- think Trey Lance. A million things can go wrong.

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Jan 5, 2023·edited Jan 5, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe

This QB class is turning out a lot less awesome than I was hoping for. I guess all the more reason to draft defense, defense, IOL, WR

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Jan 5, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe

"Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson, the team's starter for the past two seasons, will return to the Razorbacks in 2023 rather than enter the NFL draft. Jefferson announced his decision Friday on Instagram, writing that his dreams "wouldn't be complete without one more year on The Hill." In his first year as a starter, Jefferson completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 2,676 yards, 21 touchdowns and only four interceptions. He also led the team in rushing with 664 yards and scored six rushing touchdowns. Despite battling multiple injuries this season, including twice missing a game, and being without his top target from 2021 — first-round pick Treylon Burks — Jefferson has arguably been just as good. In just 10 games, he’s completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 2,361 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions while rushing for 510 yards and seven touchdowns."

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I like me some KJ Jefferson.

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At 6'3", 243, KJ at could be like Taysom Hill, as an extra QB for 1 or 2 yard bulldozer carries, fullback, blocker, running back and someone in the backfield who defenses would have to cover as a secondary passer.

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author

Charley!

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Jan 5, 2023Liked by Seaside Joe

Bummer for Grayson on both the credit transfer issue (whatever that means) and the bowl game injury. The fact he played in that game was probably an indication that the transfer portal wasn't going to work for him and he'd already decided to stay with Coastal. What is going on with him academically to prevent him from transferring to Auburn, or anywhere else that really wanted him? Also, how much more can he raise his stock with another year Coastal Carolina with a new head coach and presumably another bad supporting cast? Hope his injury isn't too serious. I'm not seeing much information about it, but his "upper body" sure looked like his neck/back.

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One thing I have learned listening to coach Pete is what he likes in a quarterback. Pete says Carson Palmer was the best quarterback he had at USC. The two quarterbacks Seattle has shown interest in but had Russell and couldn't pull the trigger Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the smallest at 6ft 3. 225lbs that's not small. Both Allen and Palmer are 6ft 5. They all poses huge arms and can move which Palmer did well before injury. If the Seahawks use one of their first round picks he will look and play like this. Out of the 3 Carson Palmer was the only sure thing if you look at scouting reports. The other two were coveted by Pete and John for their ability the Air raid didn't scare them nor Allen's inaccuracy. It's to bad Buffalo didn't bite on what we may have offered in trade to select Allen. Do you think Russell would have been offered ? I do.

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So... what does that say about the Seahawks draft? Are you saying Will Levis is his prototype?

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I know Levi's has the prototypical, size, arm strength, and mobility. Weather Pete and John believe he has the intangibles only they know. His statistics don't look great, and for some reason Rob Stanton and others think the world of him. To be a .1% athlete you need to have an insatiable desire and the focus to go with it, this is what Pete and John would need to believe.

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To be fair, the reason people believe in him are the intangibles. Go spend some time watching his interviews, he comes across to me as a good kid that wants nothing more than to compete and play football. Word is that he's an excellent leader. So combine those intangibles with the ridiculous physical talent and a better knowledge of NFL offenses than most QBs in this draft, and you can begin to see why some people love him. I personally am NOT sold, but I thought the same of Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert, so I am attempting to challenge my biases in this regard.

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In my view QB is 70% mind, and 20% technique, and 10% body type. Brady, R. Wilson, Brees, and Montana were dominant in their peak without a prototype body. There have been hundreds of QBs with the right body and the wrong brain. Just my two cents.

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