Based on what we’ve seen from the Seahawks so far this season, I’d like to see the first 4 picks next year go to defense and maybe a WR. Re-sign Geno or Drew as probable starter in 2023 and a 3-5 round pick on a developmental QB with more height than Russ, a bit of dual threat potential, and the above mentioned grit.
While I understand that your comparison for Levis is based on the hype, I think the two are so different as prospects that it's just an odd comparison. And as someone who has watched several games, though not all of them, of both players, I just don't get why that's the comparison you make.
Willis played in what is very clearly a college offense. He typically made just one read and ran. He never had to go through a progression, and frankly, his passes were not that accurate. He put up loads of highlights running, and he'd make a wow throw every now and again, but anyone who actually watched him saw a guy who had few skills that translated to the next level. Levis is somewhat the opposite. He plays in a Shannahan/McVay offense, and goes through a progression every play. You can see him read defenses and make checks at the line. In other words, you can be confident that he can walk onto the field and not be completely lost as a rookie the way Willis would or Justin Fields did (same concern with Stroud). That is the reason that Levis is a first round pick, and Willis wasn't. Willis had potential and loads of bad tape to go with a few splashy plays in a college offense. Levis has bad plays as well, and I'm not sold on him the way I've been on QBs in the past. But his talent mixed with his ability to start week 1 puts him firmly in round 1 for me.
Personally, I see more Willis in Hendon Hooker. I don't see a lot of going through progressions. Very much a collegiate offense, with lots of well designed plays making for easy throws. I see some wow moments, and then an equal number of WTF throws. He was lucky he didn't have another pick against Bama (it was called back for unrelated penalty). Honestly, I think his WR Jalen Hyatt looks like a better prospect than he is. 3rd round is the highest I'd take Hooker.
I watched Tyler Murray disrespect his coach last night on national TV and thought this guy is never going to lead his team to a championship. Russell Wilson pulling strings like Hackett was his personal puppet is never going to lead the Broncos to a championship. Can you measure coachability? We’re comparing talent in this contest but how can we discover who is the most talented and still be humble enough to earn the respect of his team?
It seems like Russ changed over time, as he learned the power and value of success and media praise and how to market his brand, but he came into the league with a chip on his shoulder and a relentless need to prove himself. Kyler had so much success entering the league and was never really challenged to proved his NFL worth (thanks in large part to a fellow short guy named Russell).
My greatest fear in drafting a guy like Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud is that they won't have that need to show the world it's wrong about them. I think that grittiness is an immeasurable quality in any player, but especially the leader of your team. It's a good reason to hope we draft a guy from the underdog tribe.
All very true. I think more true for Stroud than Young this season though. I really don't think Bama is as talented as they usually are, and they lack the usual 1st round WRs and OL. He made some really great plays against Tenn and Texas, and to me showed some ability to face adversity. Only questions for me are his size and arm strength. Not wowed by his power (not saying it's bad, just mediocre in the NFL), and I wonder if he can take the beating. He'd be small even if he were a DB.
I don't even know what to say about your comments on Rising. Did you watch the Rose Bowl before he got knocked out on the field? The run he went on last year with both his arm and legs was fantastic. He butchered Oregon twice in the last three weeks and demolished the Pac 12 with one loss under him by Oregon St. He had 267 yards passing and 73yards rushing in that game that was won at the last minute. He went toe to toe with CJ in the Rose Bowl and his defense got shredded due to a running back playing corner. He wins and doesn't lose games.
This year he did not have a good game against UCLA with no TD's and a INT. His pick in the Florida game was a poor pass but he got 91 yards rushing along with 216 yards passing. That game was lost by the defense. He is the only reason they were even in that game.
He has lost his favorite target for the year and now Dalton Kincaid is looking like the #3 TE in the nation. His passes are accurate and on time and most importantly he wins
All of these guys are accomplished QBs with throwing arms sufficient to be an NFL QB. Physique and speed are qualities you can't coach but are easy to see. Levi, Richardson, and McKee haven't produced so I'll discount them.
The most physically imposing specimens are Jefferson and Uiagalelei. They likely can take a lickin' and keep on tickin'.
The least stout are Young, Bennett, Gabriel, and Daniels.
DTR, Hall, and Hartman are on the bubble.
VanDyke and Shrader are 6'4", 220ish and everybody else is in the 6'2"or3", 210 to 220 range.
Speed belongs to Young(4.52) and Hall(4.54) who are a full second faster in the forty than the next competitors.
Surprises are DTR (4.64) because he looks faster and is smaller, Ward (4.87), and Uiagalelei (4.87).
The take: The two guys who stand out for their size/speed combo are KJ Jefferson (4.69, 6'3",243) and Garrett Schrader (4.64, 6'4",220).
Agree with the notion that the Seahawks should not be in a rush to resign Geno. How many teams have come to regret signing a guy based on a limited data set? Goff, Wentz, Garoppolo, Wilson and on and on and on . . .
Worth bearing in mind that Geno has started 40 NFL games in his career. He is pretty unique as a QB1, so will likely have a lot more more left in the tank than any other 33 year old starting QB. But fair point, he isn’t the long term answer, but a drop off the cliff is not likely to be imminent
So true. We've seen older QBs get big contracts and sometimes it's turned out well. I'm sure Denver is kicking itself for resigning Russ, sight in Orange unseen.
I'd like to see an article that details the traits that each contestant must fix to be successful in the NFL. For example, you said Michael Penix, "has consistently shown a few red flags, not just injury related". Stroud hasn't stood out but what else must he do? What are Hooker's shortcomings that are hidden by their offense? DTR is a bit of an enigma but why? Which of these QBs are Baker Mayfield and Johnny Manziel, ie. they are great college players but have obvious NFL limitations? I want you to be the curmudgeon at the draft table that destroys every prospect we promote. We need some negativity!
Random thoughts: Bryce has got to be a little star in the making at the next level. Levis looks like he might be more pro-ready than I ever thought but he reminds me of a lot of draft flops. Last week's CCU game was awful, but not because of McCall. Though it does give me reason to think they will drop more games this year than I expected after the hot start and he takes too many hits. DJ might be a good pro player. Penix too, but I swear if I see one more "energy" post I'm muting his name on Twitter. Rising is rising! I think the BYU kid (granted I've watched all of 2 games and not closely) might be the real deal. This Qb class isn't as "loaded" as I was led to believe at the midway point of the year and I think next year's class will be even better.
I am disappointed I can't vote for Tyler Van Dyke to be tossed out of the competition. I just don't see anything there that would suggest he will be successful at the next level. A new system/coach? Well that is going to happen for every one of the QBs under consideration! And if he hasn't somehow mastered the transition--maybe he just isn't good enough. /end of rant.
The guy that keeps surprising me is Hooker. He is really putting some tape together that is going to be hard to overlook.
McCall is going to be a guy who lasts until at least the 3rd round, I believe, if only because he is largely running an option offense and not a 'pro-style' offense. Players get pigeon-holed unfairly and I would imagine that is what will happen with McCall, barring a lights-out performance at the Senior Bowl.
I believe there is a 90%+ chance that the Seahawks sign Geno to a two or three year extension. As good as this QB class is, I don't see any of them playing as well as Geno during their first two years. And if Geno is re-signed, I can't imagine Pete and John would burn a R1 or R2 pick on a QB who would not play during their 4 yr contract.
I agree in that I don't think any of the top 4 picks will be spent on the QB. But I am just as sure they will take a QB in the draft, and maybe a late Rd 2 or Rd 3, by trading up to get a guy they want to develop.
I'm just the opposite. I'll be shocked it they don't spend one of the first 4 picks on QB. I don't think it matters what Geno does this season either. They're gonna draft a QB early even if it's to sit and watch Geno for a year.
I depends on who they love. Will there be a Russell Wilson that John has been keeping his eye on? I don't think they'll draft a QB in the top 4 picks just to get a QB. It will have to be someone they MUST have or someone who falls and is just too good to pass up. If you spend day 1/2 draft captial on a QB, you have to believe they're a franchise QB or they're a wasted pick.
Yes it is possible if there is someone they really like, but there are so many other needs to fill. DT, DE, WR, G... maybe Safety. DE/WR/DT are all high value positions. It will be interesting to watch how things unfold for sure!
Based on what we’ve seen from the Seahawks so far this season, I’d like to see the first 4 picks next year go to defense and maybe a WR. Re-sign Geno or Drew as probable starter in 2023 and a 3-5 round pick on a developmental QB with more height than Russ, a bit of dual threat potential, and the above mentioned grit.
Thanks for doing these Kenneth!
While I understand that your comparison for Levis is based on the hype, I think the two are so different as prospects that it's just an odd comparison. And as someone who has watched several games, though not all of them, of both players, I just don't get why that's the comparison you make.
Willis played in what is very clearly a college offense. He typically made just one read and ran. He never had to go through a progression, and frankly, his passes were not that accurate. He put up loads of highlights running, and he'd make a wow throw every now and again, but anyone who actually watched him saw a guy who had few skills that translated to the next level. Levis is somewhat the opposite. He plays in a Shannahan/McVay offense, and goes through a progression every play. You can see him read defenses and make checks at the line. In other words, you can be confident that he can walk onto the field and not be completely lost as a rookie the way Willis would or Justin Fields did (same concern with Stroud). That is the reason that Levis is a first round pick, and Willis wasn't. Willis had potential and loads of bad tape to go with a few splashy plays in a college offense. Levis has bad plays as well, and I'm not sold on him the way I've been on QBs in the past. But his talent mixed with his ability to start week 1 puts him firmly in round 1 for me.
Personally, I see more Willis in Hendon Hooker. I don't see a lot of going through progressions. Very much a collegiate offense, with lots of well designed plays making for easy throws. I see some wow moments, and then an equal number of WTF throws. He was lucky he didn't have another pick against Bama (it was called back for unrelated penalty). Honestly, I think his WR Jalen Hyatt looks like a better prospect than he is. 3rd round is the highest I'd take Hooker.
I watched Tyler Murray disrespect his coach last night on national TV and thought this guy is never going to lead his team to a championship. Russell Wilson pulling strings like Hackett was his personal puppet is never going to lead the Broncos to a championship. Can you measure coachability? We’re comparing talent in this contest but how can we discover who is the most talented and still be humble enough to earn the respect of his team?
It seems like Russ changed over time, as he learned the power and value of success and media praise and how to market his brand, but he came into the league with a chip on his shoulder and a relentless need to prove himself. Kyler had so much success entering the league and was never really challenged to proved his NFL worth (thanks in large part to a fellow short guy named Russell).
My greatest fear in drafting a guy like Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud is that they won't have that need to show the world it's wrong about them. I think that grittiness is an immeasurable quality in any player, but especially the leader of your team. It's a good reason to hope we draft a guy from the underdog tribe.
All very true. I think more true for Stroud than Young this season though. I really don't think Bama is as talented as they usually are, and they lack the usual 1st round WRs and OL. He made some really great plays against Tenn and Texas, and to me showed some ability to face adversity. Only questions for me are his size and arm strength. Not wowed by his power (not saying it's bad, just mediocre in the NFL), and I wonder if he can take the beating. He'd be small even if he were a DB.
I have not received one email since the 2022 season began!!
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That sounds like a bad deal! Here's the Substack support page: https://substack.com/contact
I don't even know what to say about your comments on Rising. Did you watch the Rose Bowl before he got knocked out on the field? The run he went on last year with both his arm and legs was fantastic. He butchered Oregon twice in the last three weeks and demolished the Pac 12 with one loss under him by Oregon St. He had 267 yards passing and 73yards rushing in that game that was won at the last minute. He went toe to toe with CJ in the Rose Bowl and his defense got shredded due to a running back playing corner. He wins and doesn't lose games.
This year he did not have a good game against UCLA with no TD's and a INT. His pick in the Florida game was a poor pass but he got 91 yards rushing along with 216 yards passing. That game was lost by the defense. He is the only reason they were even in that game.
He has lost his favorite target for the year and now Dalton Kincaid is looking like the #3 TE in the nation. His passes are accurate and on time and most importantly he wins
I appreciate you.
All of these guys are accomplished QBs with throwing arms sufficient to be an NFL QB. Physique and speed are qualities you can't coach but are easy to see. Levi, Richardson, and McKee haven't produced so I'll discount them.
The most physically imposing specimens are Jefferson and Uiagalelei. They likely can take a lickin' and keep on tickin'.
The least stout are Young, Bennett, Gabriel, and Daniels.
DTR, Hall, and Hartman are on the bubble.
VanDyke and Shrader are 6'4", 220ish and everybody else is in the 6'2"or3", 210 to 220 range.
Speed belongs to Young(4.52) and Hall(4.54) who are a full second faster in the forty than the next competitors.
Surprises are DTR (4.64) because he looks faster and is smaller, Ward (4.87), and Uiagalelei (4.87).
The take: The two guys who stand out for their size/speed combo are KJ Jefferson (4.69, 6'3",243) and Garrett Schrader (4.64, 6'4",220).
Agree with the notion that the Seahawks should not be in a rush to resign Geno. How many teams have come to regret signing a guy based on a limited data set? Goff, Wentz, Garoppolo, Wilson and on and on and on . . .
Plus, Geno will be 33 at the end of next season. No matter how one cuts it, he’s on the back end of his career.
Worth bearing in mind that Geno has started 40 NFL games in his career. He is pretty unique as a QB1, so will likely have a lot more more left in the tank than any other 33 year old starting QB. But fair point, he isn’t the long term answer, but a drop off the cliff is not likely to be imminent
So true. We've seen older QBs get big contracts and sometimes it's turned out well. I'm sure Denver is kicking itself for resigning Russ, sight in Orange unseen.
I'd like to see an article that details the traits that each contestant must fix to be successful in the NFL. For example, you said Michael Penix, "has consistently shown a few red flags, not just injury related". Stroud hasn't stood out but what else must he do? What are Hooker's shortcomings that are hidden by their offense? DTR is a bit of an enigma but why? Which of these QBs are Baker Mayfield and Johnny Manziel, ie. they are great college players but have obvious NFL limitations? I want you to be the curmudgeon at the draft table that destroys every prospect we promote. We need some negativity!
Great comment. Totally agree! Seeing BOTH sides, pluses/minuses, allows objectivity.
I had the same thought.
Random thoughts: Bryce has got to be a little star in the making at the next level. Levis looks like he might be more pro-ready than I ever thought but he reminds me of a lot of draft flops. Last week's CCU game was awful, but not because of McCall. Though it does give me reason to think they will drop more games this year than I expected after the hot start and he takes too many hits. DJ might be a good pro player. Penix too, but I swear if I see one more "energy" post I'm muting his name on Twitter. Rising is rising! I think the BYU kid (granted I've watched all of 2 games and not closely) might be the real deal. This Qb class isn't as "loaded" as I was led to believe at the midway point of the year and I think next year's class will be even better.
I am disappointed I can't vote for Tyler Van Dyke to be tossed out of the competition. I just don't see anything there that would suggest he will be successful at the next level. A new system/coach? Well that is going to happen for every one of the QBs under consideration! And if he hasn't somehow mastered the transition--maybe he just isn't good enough. /end of rant.
The guy that keeps surprising me is Hooker. He is really putting some tape together that is going to be hard to overlook.
McCall is going to be a guy who lasts until at least the 3rd round, I believe, if only because he is largely running an option offense and not a 'pro-style' offense. Players get pigeon-holed unfairly and I would imagine that is what will happen with McCall, barring a lights-out performance at the Senior Bowl.
*can't... Ken is there an edit button??? I feel like I am on Twitter here lol.
You can edit your own comment if you click on the 3-dot icon. I just did it to this comment!
Well I'll be damned if that didn't work! Thank you, Grant!
I believe there is a 90%+ chance that the Seahawks sign Geno to a two or three year extension. As good as this QB class is, I don't see any of them playing as well as Geno during their first two years. And if Geno is re-signed, I can't imagine Pete and John would burn a R1 or R2 pick on a QB who would not play during their 4 yr contract.
I agree in that I don't think any of the top 4 picks will be spent on the QB. But I am just as sure they will take a QB in the draft, and maybe a late Rd 2 or Rd 3, by trading up to get a guy they want to develop.
I'm just the opposite. I'll be shocked it they don't spend one of the first 4 picks on QB. I don't think it matters what Geno does this season either. They're gonna draft a QB early even if it's to sit and watch Geno for a year.
I depends on who they love. Will there be a Russell Wilson that John has been keeping his eye on? I don't think they'll draft a QB in the top 4 picks just to get a QB. It will have to be someone they MUST have or someone who falls and is just too good to pass up. If you spend day 1/2 draft captial on a QB, you have to believe they're a franchise QB or they're a wasted pick.
Yes it is possible if there is someone they really like, but there are so many other needs to fill. DT, DE, WR, G... maybe Safety. DE/WR/DT are all high value positions. It will be interesting to watch how things unfold for sure!