Will Levis' tape gets me excited. His throws look effortless, he's a great runner, and is biggest reason Kentucky has any relevance in CFB. I hope he has a good campaign in 2022.
Can you imagine the Hawks drafting Grayson McCall in the third round and watching him blossum into the second coming of Russell Wilson. That would be unspeakably amazing. John would instantly become the greatest GM of all time.
This article spurred me to look up Lock's college career. Did you know Drew Lock is second all-time in SEC passing yards. He challenged the best college defenses for four years as a starter at Missou and didn't have the advantage of an elite supporting cast. The highest offensive draft pick in his four years was Mitch Morse, a guard picked in the 2nd round. You don't have that resume if you're some schlub that shouldn't be on an NFL roster... or do you? The top four all time passers in the SEC are Aaron Murray, Drew Lock, David Greene, and Chris Leake. Not an NFL QB among them. Of course, number five makes up for it by being Peyton Manning. I understand the skepticsm regarding Drew Lock's NFL future but there's still a chance we'll be glad we secured him. He's got one other advantage; he's not Tim Tebow.
“... not change for no man.” My favorite movie line from Lord of the Rings is where the Nazgul King proclaims, "No man can kill me!" and Éowyn rejoins, " I Am No Man!" while dispatching him.
Pete will 100% draft a QB in 2023. I'd bet my pet tortoise on it. I'd also bet my Cortez Kennedy rookie card that Pete will also pick someone up to be the starting quarterback before 9-12.
After Kenneth mentioned watching Lock's games to end Denver's season last year, I've started doing the same. I haven't watched all the offensive plays, but enough to want to retract my "at least he might have upside Geno doesn't" take I posted earlier. Drew Lock does not look like an NFL quarterback. I could watch the worst performance Baker had last season with a separated shoulder (I have; I've watched every game now), or Minshew's worst career start (still figuring out which game that would be, but I've watched a few from Jax to Philly), and not even the flash plays from Lock raise an eyebrow at this point. I've decided that he simply isn't talented enough to be an NFL starter.
I've watched Geno's starts from last season several times now. I feel like in each case I felt better about him at the time than after a rewatch. Even in the beatdown we gave Jacksonville, his best throws were something you had BETTER make if you have time and a CB stumbled or safety pulled the wrong direction. By all accounts Geno is a great locker room guy, and teammates like him (except for the one who punched him for not paying up on a lost bet his rookie season, but I digress). Geno isn't leading this team to a competitive place.
I feel like a broken record pushing for Baker, but I want us to win as many games as our team can this season. There's a big drop off after him. At the most important position in football. And I have to think management knows this. He isn't worth $19 million, in my opinion. He isn't worth a high draft pick unless you're desperate (which we ARE, but still). But you make something work to acquire him if you intend to win some games next year.
Another thought…… if there really are 5,6,7 primo QBs next year. and the 7 crappiest teams in the league draft them, think about the potential compression of the W/L records!!!
In 2018, even with Russell Wilson firmly entrenched as ++ starting QB and showing legitimate signs of being an 'elite' one at that, JSPC were looking into Josh Allen seriously enough to offend Russ' agent Mark Rodgers and quite possibly Mr. 'Go Hawks' as well.
We did not move up to draft the star in the making, now Superstar QB. Nevertheless, it is clear they like the idea of being great at every position. Including QB, but Not QB at the expense of the rest of the team.
In this last draft, we already had 2 marginal starter QBs. Why draft another one this year when they did not feel their roster would improve by doing so...especially with the 2023 draft stock and the cap room to work with. Yes, gang. Kenneth is 'on it' again.
As for trading up in 2023...JSPC never seem to agree with the pundits on who they like best. We very well may get who they want in the natural progression of the upcoming draft. With so many primo QBs coming up next year and since not Every team will want one, this feels pretty spot on as well.
I mean really - we have never seen a run of 5-6 QBs to start the draft because many crappy teams have been so for several seasons and already have drafted a premium one. The Hawks will get one of the top dogs next year without pushing it and will have other prime talent to go along with their new signal caller next year.
Spot on from my perspective. It's a refreshing view of Carroll that seems lost in the blogosphere. And, it would not surprise me if Pete traded UP in that is the player they have rated for their system.
One of the tweeters above—you can probably guess who—wanted to replace Carroll because of his fourth-down calls* and use of timeouts. Because there are plenty of coaches out there, you see. This was back when I still bothered to argue a point with these guys, and I left a comment that anyone who would say this hadn’t been in a leadership role or had to hire a leader.
Now, this is obvious to anyone who has been around the block as little as once. But it runs afoul of the football analytics’ conviction that anything meaningful can be measured. What interested me was that while I got little support, I didn’t get an argument either.
*I think coaches are too quick to punt on fourth down. But I’ve looked at the “rarely-kick” analytical presentations, and, as near as I can tell, fourth-down aggressiveness does not correlate to wins or offensive efficiency. Like most football analytics, the information is useful tactically but has questionable strategic value.
Interesting, Paul. We fans have no idea how fast the game moves on the field. There are some red flag tosses and 4th down that seem so simple from the armchair, and we never know when he's getting bad advise from others in his headset. In his pressers he often says, 'we,' and that might be an area where collaboration isn't that helpful, or may just be a weak part of his coaching. We can't all be good at everything.
I think the changes he's made to the staff last year, and especially this off season show Pete is adaptable.
And the 4th Downers might really be out in force this year because if he returns to a defensive emphasis, he's going to be more inclined to pinning teams back and playing the field advantage game.
Agree, we can’t conceive of the speed and power. Plus, even though TV is real-time, it has the effect of slowing the game down because we are so practiced at watching it that way.
I’m for playing a field position game when the defense shows up between the 20s. There’s not much point to it when offenses move downfield at will, which we have seen too much of in the last few seasons.
But this still shows the degree to which football is defined by conditions and situations as opposed to spreadsheets. If your defense is good and your offense is so-so, of course you want to take every opportunity to give the offense a short field. Punting on fourth even around the 50 makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, if your offense is decent and the defense gives up yards, then you should go for it on fourth more. The spreadsheet calculations can inform any given 4th-down decision, but they shouldn’t drive it.
Haven’t looked recently, but I used to try and argue the same 4th down point. There was a point where Bill & Pete had the exact same amount of 4th down attempts. Both dead last in the league. But they also had the top conversion percentages.
Right on for me too. Don’t waste a good pick for a so-so QB. God knows we have plenty of examples of that already.
Will Levis' tape gets me excited. His throws look effortless, he's a great runner, and is biggest reason Kentucky has any relevance in CFB. I hope he has a good campaign in 2022.
Can you imagine the Hawks drafting Grayson McCall in the third round and watching him blossum into the second coming of Russell Wilson. That would be unspeakably amazing. John would instantly become the greatest GM of all time.
This article spurred me to look up Lock's college career. Did you know Drew Lock is second all-time in SEC passing yards. He challenged the best college defenses for four years as a starter at Missou and didn't have the advantage of an elite supporting cast. The highest offensive draft pick in his four years was Mitch Morse, a guard picked in the 2nd round. You don't have that resume if you're some schlub that shouldn't be on an NFL roster... or do you? The top four all time passers in the SEC are Aaron Murray, Drew Lock, David Greene, and Chris Leake. Not an NFL QB among them. Of course, number five makes up for it by being Peyton Manning. I understand the skepticsm regarding Drew Lock's NFL future but there's still a chance we'll be glad we secured him. He's got one other advantage; he's not Tim Tebow.
Completely agree, next year is the time to draft a QB. Go big if Lock/Smith are a bust, developmental if one of them shines.
“... not change for no man.” My favorite movie line from Lord of the Rings is where the Nazgul King proclaims, "No man can kill me!" and Éowyn rejoins, " I Am No Man!" while dispatching him.
Pete will 100% draft a QB in 2023. I'd bet my pet tortoise on it. I'd also bet my Cortez Kennedy rookie card that Pete will also pick someone up to be the starting quarterback before 9-12.
After Kenneth mentioned watching Lock's games to end Denver's season last year, I've started doing the same. I haven't watched all the offensive plays, but enough to want to retract my "at least he might have upside Geno doesn't" take I posted earlier. Drew Lock does not look like an NFL quarterback. I could watch the worst performance Baker had last season with a separated shoulder (I have; I've watched every game now), or Minshew's worst career start (still figuring out which game that would be, but I've watched a few from Jax to Philly), and not even the flash plays from Lock raise an eyebrow at this point. I've decided that he simply isn't talented enough to be an NFL starter.
I've watched Geno's starts from last season several times now. I feel like in each case I felt better about him at the time than after a rewatch. Even in the beatdown we gave Jacksonville, his best throws were something you had BETTER make if you have time and a CB stumbled or safety pulled the wrong direction. By all accounts Geno is a great locker room guy, and teammates like him (except for the one who punched him for not paying up on a lost bet his rookie season, but I digress). Geno isn't leading this team to a competitive place.
I feel like a broken record pushing for Baker, but I want us to win as many games as our team can this season. There's a big drop off after him. At the most important position in football. And I have to think management knows this. He isn't worth $19 million, in my opinion. He isn't worth a high draft pick unless you're desperate (which we ARE, but still). But you make something work to acquire him if you intend to win some games next year.
I dunno if I’d risk a Cortez Kennedy rookie card on anything!
Another thought…… if there really are 5,6,7 primo QBs next year. and the 7 crappiest teams in the league draft them, think about the potential compression of the W/L records!!!
“ I believe that the Seahawks are comfortable not drafting a first round quarterback in 2023.”
2023? Should be 2022?
Looking forward to updates onQB news.
In 2018, even with Russell Wilson firmly entrenched as ++ starting QB and showing legitimate signs of being an 'elite' one at that, JSPC were looking into Josh Allen seriously enough to offend Russ' agent Mark Rodgers and quite possibly Mr. 'Go Hawks' as well.
We did not move up to draft the star in the making, now Superstar QB. Nevertheless, it is clear they like the idea of being great at every position. Including QB, but Not QB at the expense of the rest of the team.
In this last draft, we already had 2 marginal starter QBs. Why draft another one this year when they did not feel their roster would improve by doing so...especially with the 2023 draft stock and the cap room to work with. Yes, gang. Kenneth is 'on it' again.
As for trading up in 2023...JSPC never seem to agree with the pundits on who they like best. We very well may get who they want in the natural progression of the upcoming draft. With so many primo QBs coming up next year and since not Every team will want one, this feels pretty spot on as well.
I mean really - we have never seen a run of 5-6 QBs to start the draft because many crappy teams have been so for several seasons and already have drafted a premium one. The Hawks will get one of the top dogs next year without pushing it and will have other prime talent to go along with their new signal caller next year.
Amen. To all of it.
I do have to think our 2022 QB is not on the roster yet, though.
Mayfield? Whom???
Spot on from my perspective. It's a refreshing view of Carroll that seems lost in the blogosphere. And, it would not surprise me if Pete traded UP in that is the player they have rated for their system.
One of the tweeters above—you can probably guess who—wanted to replace Carroll because of his fourth-down calls* and use of timeouts. Because there are plenty of coaches out there, you see. This was back when I still bothered to argue a point with these guys, and I left a comment that anyone who would say this hadn’t been in a leadership role or had to hire a leader.
Now, this is obvious to anyone who has been around the block as little as once. But it runs afoul of the football analytics’ conviction that anything meaningful can be measured. What interested me was that while I got little support, I didn’t get an argument either.
*I think coaches are too quick to punt on fourth down. But I’ve looked at the “rarely-kick” analytical presentations, and, as near as I can tell, fourth-down aggressiveness does not correlate to wins or offensive efficiency. Like most football analytics, the information is useful tactically but has questionable strategic value.
Interesting, Paul. We fans have no idea how fast the game moves on the field. There are some red flag tosses and 4th down that seem so simple from the armchair, and we never know when he's getting bad advise from others in his headset. In his pressers he often says, 'we,' and that might be an area where collaboration isn't that helpful, or may just be a weak part of his coaching. We can't all be good at everything.
I think the changes he's made to the staff last year, and especially this off season show Pete is adaptable.
And the 4th Downers might really be out in force this year because if he returns to a defensive emphasis, he's going to be more inclined to pinning teams back and playing the field advantage game.
Agree, we can’t conceive of the speed and power. Plus, even though TV is real-time, it has the effect of slowing the game down because we are so practiced at watching it that way.
I’m for playing a field position game when the defense shows up between the 20s. There’s not much point to it when offenses move downfield at will, which we have seen too much of in the last few seasons.
But this still shows the degree to which football is defined by conditions and situations as opposed to spreadsheets. If your defense is good and your offense is so-so, of course you want to take every opportunity to give the offense a short field. Punting on fourth even around the 50 makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, if your offense is decent and the defense gives up yards, then you should go for it on fourth more. The spreadsheet calculations can inform any given 4th-down decision, but they shouldn’t drive it.
Haven’t looked recently, but I used to try and argue the same 4th down point. There was a point where Bill & Pete had the exact same amount of 4th down attempts. Both dead last in the league. But they also had the top conversion percentages.
Great read!