29 & Older: Veteran WR check-in
The Seahawks are not the only team with a WR over 30 who is about to hit a new salary cap career-high: Seaside Joe 1670
I find this subject interesting and worth sharing in a Seahawks newsletter because a) nobody else in my industry seems to be cognizant of the depreciation of ‘old’ receivers despite this being a trend of many seasons and b) Seattle does have a very talented 31-year-old receiver who will cost almost $27 million next year.
None of what I’m sharing is biased or an opinion, I’m just sharing standard information and I’ll let you come to your own conclusions. At most, I’ll present potential scenarios and let you answer with whatever outcome you think is most likely.
The following numbers are these players through three games of this season.
Age 29 season
Tyreek Hill, MIA: 25 catches/35 targets, 412 yards, 4 TD
Mike Williams, LAC: 17/28, 249 yards, 1 TD (torn ACL: out for season)
Amari Cooper, CLE: 17/25, 243 yards, 1 TD
Calvin Ridley, JAX: 13/26, 173 yards, 1 TD
Tyler Boyd, CIN: 13/20, 101 yards, 1 TD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC: 5/7, 98 yards, 0 TD
Pretend you follow a generic team that has slightly above-average starting receivers: How many of these receivers turning 30 next year would you want your favorite football team to sign as a free agent, if that was possible?
Hill? Yes.
I think the list gets worrisome almost immediately after that and even in the case of Hill, for how much longer will he be so much more athletic than the defensive backs entering the league in the past few and next couple of years? Hill’s cap hits in 2024 and 2025 are $31 and $34 million, then he will need to renegotiate or be released prior to 2026 because his cap hit will be $56 million!
If Amari Cooper hasn’t played like a true number one with the Browns, that could could change as he develops chemistry with Deshaun Watson. Cooper has over 200 yards in the last two games. He will be a free agent in 2025.
Williams suffered a torn ACL in Week 3, among the worst case scenarios for a receiver about to turn 30, and more information will be needed on Ridley. His last two games have been bad enough to erase the goodwill he built up in training camp and Week 1.
Could you imagine any scenario in which all six of these receivers are fading out in two years? Maybe keep reading the list before answering.
Age 30 season
Cooper Kupp, LAR: Hasn’t played (hamstring)
Mike Evans, TB: 17 catches/28 targets, 297 yards, 3 TD
Stefon Diggs, BUF: 25/32, 279 yards, 1 TD
Michael Thomas, NO: 18/26, 166 yards, 0 TD
Nelson Agholor, BAL: 13/21, 102 yards, 1 TD
Allen Robinson, PIT: 11/15, 100 yards, 0 TD
DeVante Parker, NE: 8/11, 76 yards, 0 TD (two games)
Robbie Chosen, MIA: 1/1, 68 yards, 1 TD (one game)
Brandin Cooks, DAL: 4/11, 39 yards, 0 TD (two games)
Is it safe to be skeptical of every receiver here except Kupp, Evans, and Diggs?
Mike Evans decided to play hardball with Tampa, as the soon-to-be free agent cut off extension negotiations until after the season. How do we know that the Bucs weren’t playing hardball, nervous to extend a 30-year-old for the terms he probably wants now while he’s still productive? Evans has shown no signs of being past his prime and is in fact having one of his best starts. It would be interesting to see how teams react to him demanding $27 million per year as a free agent, if he continues to play like this. Diggs is playing well and his cap hit goes up to $27 million in 2024, when he will be 31.
The Rams gave Kupp $26.7 million per year on a deal that doesn’t even begin until 2024 and he’s yet to play this season.
Age 31 season
Keenan Allen, LAC: 32 catches/39 targets, 402 yards, 2 TD
Davante Adams, LV: 25/37, 322 yards, 3 TD
Robert Woods, HOU: 15/25, 165 yards, 0 TD
DeAndre Hopkins, TEN: 14/25, 153 yards, 0 TD
Tyler Lockett, SEA: 13/21, 103 yards, 2 TD
Odell Beckham, Jr, BAL: 5/7, 66 yards, 0 TD (two games)
Allen and Adams are the two names here who have pushed conventional wisdom out the conventional window. The players who have averaged at least 70 receiving yards per game since 2016 at age 31 or older (minimum 10 games): Travis Kelce (three times), Larry Fitzgerald, Julian Edelman, Jordy Nelson.
Kelce is a receiver playing tight end.
Are these arbitrary numbers? Tell me which numbers you’d like me to run and we’ll see if that puts 31+ year old receivers in a better light.
Allen has an opportunity to post career-best numbers with Justin Herbert now that Williams is out. He will make an NFL-high $34 million next year. I don’t think anyone, including me, didn’t expect Adams to be one of the NFL’s best receivers this season. He was targeted 20 times against the Steelers in Week 3 and the Raiders won’t be throwing to anyone else.
Hopkins went to Tennessee, presumably ignoring what happened to Julio Jones and Robert Woods when they went there.
Age 32 season
I couldn’t find a single 32-year-old receiver who has been targeted this year.
Age 33 season
Adam Thielen, CAR: 20/25, 211 yards, 2 TD
Randall Cobb, NYJ: 1/4, 12 yards, 0 TD
Marvin Jones, DET: 2/6, 8 yards, 0 TD
The Panthers have force fed Thielen the last two weeks, as they overpaid him after trading D.J. Moore and when they had run out of options.
Many of the NFL’s top receivers right now won’t be 30 for at least another six years, including Justin Jefferson, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and George Pickens. These players and some who are a little older than 24, including DK Metcalf, and ones who are younger and have yet to really start, like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, have the highest probability of being the league’s best receivers between now and 2028.
If we had to choose a list of receivers who are at least 30 and have been productive this season without getting injured, perhaps the only names would be Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, and Davante Adams. Being a little more generous, we could add Adam Thielen, who is at least two years older than everyone else.
True, it’s only been three games. But that’s also the case for the receivers who have been productive: It’s only been three games and most teams are begging for reasons to cut players and replace them with cheaper ones. An injury at 30 is far more devastating to a career than an injury at 23.
So far, Tyler Lockett has not been productive and he ranks outside of the top-100 in yards per catch and yards per target, but I wouldn’t say I have any reason to think he’s not playing well. We would need to know if maybe he’s having a harder time separating this year; Next Gen Stats has him at 2.7 yards of separation per route and he averaged 3.5 last year, but we don’t have a good sample size.
Lockett’s depth of target is the same as it was last season (10 yards) but his catches have only been 5.5 yards past the line of scrimmage. Coupled with his low Yards After Catch average, which we’ve always known is a thing, that makes for a 7.9 yards per catch average. Lockett had 14 catches of at least 20 yards last season, which would bring up that average considerably. So far his longest reception of 2023 is 16 yards. Assuming Geno Smith still has deep shots for Tyler Lockett in his back pocket, we should see his numbers improve.
He supposedly has as many drops this season as he had all of last season (2) but I don’t worry about his hands.
What does this mean for a 32-year-old Tyler Lockett who would make $26.9 million against the salary cap in 2024? Thielen is the only notable receiver in the NFL right now who is over 31 and he costs $6 million per season over the next two years. That is notable and teams are paying attention to facts like those because every GM wants a salary cap advantage.
Thielen was also the top full-time receiver in the NFL over 31 last season (42 yards per game), preceded by A.J. Green in 2021 (53 YPG), Emmanuel Sanders in 2020 (52 YPG), Edelman in 2019 (69 YPG), Edelman in 2018 (70 YPG), and Fitzgerald in 2017 (72 YPG).
We’ll need to evaluate the whole season, not just the first three games, and that’s why I’m keeping tabs. Because somebody has to do it.
Let me know your thoughts on the matter in the comments. I am on vacation this week but Seaside Joe never takes a day off, not holidays, not birthdays, not pandemics, not sick days, nothing. So if you like this daily Seahawks newsletter, please do me a favor and consider supporting with a $5 per month subscription. Thanks to all of you who have done that!
Not at all worried about Tyler. His numbers will be there at the end of the season if he stays healthy. Defenses are all different, and game plans change. Some weeks will be his, some not so much.
"Tell me which numbers you’d like me to run and we’ll see if that puts 31+ year old receivers in a better light."
Ooooooo...you challenge me, sir...'cuz, while your conclusion may be correct, you have not shown whether the drop in productivity is a) unique to the position, or b) generally true across all positions as a function of age or c) due to a distinction of injury rate (or severity) between different positions, or d) due to a statistical interaction (covariance) with a new QB (or, for that matter, with any other relevant position). And, for any of those, you'd have to assess the "noise" (that is, pure randomosity of the numbers).
AT BEST, the data listed could be used (if totalled) to suggest "old guys have less aggregate production", and that's about it. But you could NOT say (based on the data shown) whether it is MORE true for WR than for any other position. Also, to make your point, show how the average productivity of 29+ compares to that of younger WRs...you'd still have to adjust for targeting (and, probably, number of snaps), ask that covariance question, and assess the randomness contribution.
Back in the day (NO! No "Once Upon a Time", here!) I used to refer to this practice as "Fun With Numbers", and my commentary thereupon used to be more...oh, what is word?....old school...Theory X...Type A Personality...none of those really work!
Oh...there it is! "Cranky".