5 lies about the Seattle Seahawks

Tell A Lie Monday, Will Seahawks honor Geno Smith's contract? Seaside Joe 1709

I’ve got it.

I’ve finally figured out the best description for why Geno Smith’s performances never seem to add up to his arm talent and it only takes three words:

Bad poker player.

Geno Smith is a bad poker player because defenses can read him all the way. It’s not even fair to say that he has a “tell” like John Malkovich eating Oreos a certain way in Rounders.

It would be too generous to say that Geno has a tell, because it’s more like he’s sitting at the table screaming at the top of his lungs: “Aces! Aces! I’ve got aces!” and he’s telling the truth.

Geno struggles to hide his cards.

During Sunday’s broadcast of the Seahawks 37-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the announcers mentioned several times that Geno Smith is one of the best passers in the league when throwing outside of the numbers. That may be true, but then when I think of Geno throwing to the numbers this season, I get all of these flashbacks of balls that should have been picked off and returned to the house for six.

Not only was Geno Sm. intercepted by Geno St. on a throw outside of the numbers…

He tried very hard to give away another later in the game by floating a pass to the numbers that should have been housed by Ravens corner Travis Jones (if memory serves correct) before the half, then Smith was sacked consecutive times and lost a fumble that gave Baltimore a free three points.

I seem to remember similar passes against the Lions and Browns that should have been picked and returned for six, but Geno Smith has benefited as much as any quarterback from the fact that defensive backs are just failed wide receivers.

On that note, Geno had three or four passes batted down at the line of scrimmage, another telltale sign that he is easy to read.

It’s no surprise that when people mention good plays by Geno Smith, they often reference when he is able to create something on the fly with Tyler Lockett, as the pair connected multiple times in this fashion against the Cleveland Browns, including once for a touchdown. But these moments are few and far between and creation hasn’t always led to positive outcomes.

After difficult losses, Pete Carroll mentions “Tell The Truth Monday” and how it is vital to come together the day after the game to be honest about what they failed at as players and coaches. But is Pete being completely honest outside of the building when he says that Geno does everything right and only needs to clean up about two plays per game?

Maybe he is, you know? I mean, I can’t think of any way that the Seahawks would be better than 6-2 if they could change two plays per game this season (the Bengals game was the only competitive loss), but in Pete’s mind the only thing that matters is getting the win, not how you win.

Fair enough.

But the Seahawks offense would not be good, even if they could remove the turnovers. Seattle is still 30th in third down conversion rate, they are not explosive, they can’t run the ball like Pete preaches a good team should, the offensive line has not shown improvement and could even be regressing, the Seahawks can’t sustain long drives like most teams do, and the resources spent on weapons is starting to feel like a waste.

If the Seahawks are telling the TRUTH today, that is what they would say.

Not, “We need to clean up one or two plays.”

That’s how the Seahawks could have won six games instead of five, which is still respectable halfway through the season. However, it is not how Seattle will find itself on the right side of blowout wins and competing with the NFL’s elite teams in the playoffs.

And if I wanted the Seahawks to lie to me on Mondays, I would ask questions of Geno Smith. Then at least I could see right through it because what is his downfall?

Geno Smith is a bad poker player.

The Seahawks have tell the truth Mondays, but I’m going to do something different and tell five lies about the Seattle Seahawks after Week 9’s loss to the Ravens. These are statements that may have been said in the past or even right up until now, but are they lacking truth?

These are 5 LIES about the Seahawks.

The Seahawks will honor Geno Smith’s 3-year pact after he hits all of his performance bonuses

As I wrote on Sunday after the loss, the Seahawks will consider benching Geno Smith after they fall out of postseason contention and they will almost certainly cut ties with him if he doesn’t improve and prove to the franchise that Seattle can win playoff games with him. I would be surprised if a change to Drew Lock would happen before then because once Geno is benched, that’s the end of his story with the Seahawks.

Nothing else will be “written” or “written back” about him.

Pete knows that going to Lock means making a statement and the risk there is that if Lock is just as bad or worse, he either has to go back on that decision and return to Geno or stick with a quarterback who is holding back the team.

That’s something that you could do if the Seahawks were 3-5 and already on the brink of a bad season anyway, but it is completely unlike Pete Carroll to make a change when the team is very close to being assured a playoff seed in a weak conference. If Seattle just beats these next two teams (Moons, Rams), they’re 7-3 and maybe only need 1-2 more wins to guarantee a playoff berth.

Pete is the guy who coached a 7-9 Seahawks team in one of the most exciting playoff wins in franchise history. He’s not going to be shy about making the playoffs as a team that nobody believes in. Actually, he thrives on that.

However, that’s for this season and right now.

As for next season, the writing is on the wall that the Seahawks will move on from Geno Smith in 2024 barring the veteran coming back from the brink of the bench and leading Seattle into one of the most unlikely playoff stories any of us could have imagined.

The Seahawks signed Smith to a three-year contract worth up to $105 million, but the team will get away from the deal having only paid $27 million if Geno is released prior to the fifth day of the 2024 league year. That’s when he is owed a roster bonus worth nearly $10 million. If the Seahawks pay that, then you know they plan on also paying him a $12 million base salary, money that will be guaranteed if Geno suffers a serious injury in 2023.

That’s not a lot of money for a quarterback—$22 million—but it is a lot for a backup quarterback.

There’s no indication that Pete has written off Drew Lock. In fact, he mentions him a lot. I just don’t believe he’s going to entertain a change unless he knows for sure that he will not need to go back to Geno Smith again if he does insert Lock as his replacement. That’s a permanent move, not a fly by night test of “He couldn’t be worse”. It doesn’t work that way for Pete.

All that being said, the Seahawks offense has been BAD for the last five games. Not good, not average, but BAD, and not just against the Browns and Ravens.

People who say that “this is just a one or two week thing” are not telling the truth and it doesn’t matter what day of the week it is. The Seahawks offense has had a negative EPA in four games (Rams, Giants, Bengals, Ravens) and they’ve only been above 10 twice (Lions, Panthers).

The Seahawks have just eight offensive touchdowns in the last five games and it is almost unrealistic at this point to expect Seattle’s offense to drive down the field and score a touchdown.

vs. Giants: 75-yard TD drive, 7-yard TD drive

vs. Bengals: 75-yard TD drive

vs. Cardinals: 76-yard TD drive, 61-yard TD drive

vs. Browns: 80-yard TD drive, 57-yard TD drive, 41-yard TD drive

vs. Ravens: no touchdowns

We know how poorly they played against the Rams in Week 1.

We also know that bad offense like this is a team effort, not all on Geno as Pete keeps saying, but I would also listen to how he talks about Lamar Jackson. Over the years, I’ve wavered in how strongly I feel that Lamar is a good investment at the quarterback position. But his ability to extend plays and just the threat he brings as a runner clearly opened up the Ravens for a lot of points this week and this season.

The Ravens had four touchdown drives of 60+ yards against the Seahawks. That’s as many as Seattle has had in their last four games total. The Ravens had three touchdown drive of at least 78 yards. That’s more than the Seahawks have in their last five games.

Finally, Geno’s contract contains $30 million worth of incentive bonuses, but those are improbable to reach at this point. Geno “bet on himself” as Pete put it this offseason, needing to post better numbers than he had in 2022: His completion percentage is down, his yards per game is down, his touchdowns are way down, his interceptions are way up, he is unlikely to win any awards.

Pete Carroll isn’t lying when he says that there are problems that go beyond Geno Smith. He isn’t lying when he says that he’s going to start Geno next week and the week after that.

He’s probably also not lying about Drew Lock getting after it and wanting his opportunity. It would be a lie to say that no quarterback change is possible during the season.

The Seahawks still have a deadly tight end trio

Of all the predictions I could have made this season, “the tight ends will be forgotten” is the last I would have imagined.

2022

Noah Fant: 50-of-63 targets, 486 yards, 4 TD

Will Dissly: 34-of-38 targets, 349 yards, 3 TD

Colby Parkinson: 25-of-34 targets, 322 yards, 2 TD

The combined forces caught 109 passes on 135 targets, gained 1,157 yards, and scored nine times last season.

2023

Noah Fant: 14-of-17, 226 yards, 0 TD

Will Dissly: 6-of-7, 56, 0 TD

Colby Parkinson: 12-of-18, 138, 0 TD

This season, they have caught 32-of-42, gained 420 yards, and scored zero times.

That’s a 17-game pace of 68 catches and 892 yards. When will one of them finally score?

For a long time I’ve said that the key for teams right now is to load up on as many weapons as possible. Now I think that needs an adjustment: You’ve made all the additions, now it’s time to cut the fat!

The Seahawks actually have too much of a good thing.

The Chiefs have Travis Kelce and he has 31 more targets than the next guy (rookie Rashee Rice). The Bills have Stefon Diggs (38 more targets the next guy). The Eagles have A.J. Brown, he has 32 more targets than DeVonta Smith. The Dolphins have Tyreek Hill, he has 38 more targets than Jaylen Waddle.

Even teams that have duos or trios, like Brown/Smith or Waddle/Hill, that’s what they have. They have their go-to players.

I do not intend to criticize the Seahawks for being talented, that would be a weird thing to do, and I understand the benefit to spreading the ball around and keeping defenses off-kilter because you never know where the pass is going. The Seahawks have been trending towards an air raid attack for several years and that’s what an air raid or power air raid does, it spreads the ball around evenly.

But if it’s not working, it’s not working. You saw the offensive numbers above. It’s not working yet.

I also know that Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are unique players. I know that Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown are unique players. Maybe the Seahawks do not have that singular talent yet. However, it does seem like “this week it’s that guy, the next week it’s this guy, and the next week it’s a different guy” is due to implode in their faces.

It doesn’t get certain guys involved enough and that’s been evident with the tight ends, something that was supposed to be a strength but that hasn’t shown up this season. What’s all the 13 personnel supposed to be for if Noah Fant ends up hating the offense and leaving in the offseason because he didn’t score a touchdown?

I think that the Seahawks may have to soon decide, “Okay, our offensive identity is DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Ken Walker” and then let that be that. Or maybe it’s Noah Fant. Or maybe you ride it with Tyler Lockett a couple more years. Or Zach Charbonnet.

The point is that if you’re giving a little bit to everybody, you might never please anybody.

I think JSN definitely needs more attention. I think Metcalf needs better opportunities. I think Fant could be a star in the right offense.

And I think it’s a lie to say that Seattle’s strength is their tight end room, at least not with how they’re being utilized lately, and that’s not what we expected to believe a couple months ago.

Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet have been utilized enough times

I know, the game sort of dictates how often a team can run the ball and Pete sort of has to throw away “what he wants to do” with “what he has to do” if the Seahawks are getting their asses kicked like they did in Baltimore.

But in the last two games, Walker has 17 carries and two catches on four targets. Charbonnet has nine carries and three catches on three targets.

That’s 19 touches for Walker and 12 touches for Charbonnet in the last two games.

When you use a second round pick on a running back in back-to-back years, that is not a move intended to set you up for success in the future. That’s a “now” move and it means, “Yeah, we’re going to be one of the NFL’s best rushing teams right now because we’ve heavily invested in the running back position.”

Teams almost have to expect that if they draft a running back in the second round in 2022, that by 2026, he will either be gone in free agency or cost a franchise tag sum. That’s four seasons of value. If you draft one in 2023, then you risk losing the value by 2027.

That gives the Seahawks 2023, 2024, and 2025 to have both Walker and Charbonnet. That’s it.

It’s not like how Seattle might have Charles Cross and Abe Lucas, or Boye Mafe and Derick Hall, for the long run. This is probably the only window to exercise your running back advantage with Walker and Charbonnet.

So exercise it!

Riq Woolen has nothing to worry about

Riq Woolen would not be the first player to be a flash in the pan rookie who couldn’t hold onto his success. If he can’t hold onto a ball carrier, who is to say he can’t lose a grip of his job?

If it is actually tell the truth Monday, then the words few people want to hear that would qualify for brutality would be: Riq Woolen intercepted a pass in four straight games as a rookie, that was AMAZING, and then reality sunk in.

I think without those interceptions, Woolen is still a starter, but he’s not a great one. Teams have been attacking him, not avoiding him, and that includes the pass game and most certainly the run game. He’s not a good tackler, not good in the run game, he has been hit with a few penalties this year, and I would suspect that teams prefer to go at him than go at Devon Witherspoon.

Pete has said that Woolen has the best tools at his disposal of any cornerback he’s ever coached, and I don’t think that’s a lie. We can be extremely optimistic of Woolen’s future in the NFL and still be realistic that he is a liability in the secondary right now.

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Uchenna Nwosu is replaceable

For any fault he had, Nwosu was Seattle’s number one option at outside linebacker and edge rusher. Not just as a player, but also as the veteran leader who could do more than rush the passer. Boye Mafe could be more talented and on his way to being one of the best 10 outside linebackers in the NFL—his upside is that high—but it’s nicer when he’s your number 2 than your number 1.

I can’t lay the blame for Week 9’s pitiful performance on the loss of Nwosu. However, it did serve as a reminder that this is one position that won’t be adequately replaced midseason and will continue to haunt the Seahawks until the end of the year probably.

Darrell Taylor played 47 of 76 snaps, the most of an edge player, followed by 42 for Mafe, 38 for Frank Clark, and 25 for Derick Hall.

That’s probably too many for Taylor, Clark, and Hall. If this was 2024, then maybe by then we do want to see Hall for most of the game. At this point though, it’s putting the rookie on the field for situations he might not be ready for. Clark was on the street a couple of weeks ago and could be just as much of a liability. Taylor is going to be the best version of himself that he’s ever been, which could be possible since it is a contract year.

But it’s not what I really expect.

With edge players, we only ever talk about their sacks and pressures. The Ravens rushed for 298 yards on the Seahawks this week. That’s the most they’ve allowed in any game since 2000 and the fourth-most that Seattle has ever given up! The Ravens are a great rushing team, but that’s the fourth-most they’ve ever had in a single game.

It wasn’t bad. It was historically bad.

I’m not gonna lie…that’s bad.