Are the Colts really gonna do this?

'If old man Rivers gets in the game it’s going to be over.'

My favorite trope is when one character turns to the other and asks, “Are we really gonna do this?”

This week that character is Philip Rivers turning to Shane Steichen and the impossible dream is beating the Seattle Seahawks coming off of five years rest. But this isn’t a movie.

zezinhom400: This has to be one of the biggest shocks of the year. Rivers was already immobile when he was still playing, how’s he going to survive an NFL pass rush these days? Shall we roll some tape of “vintage” Russell Wilson for these fine folks? Guess you gotta trust that good OL they have, and have him handing off to Taylor and dumping off passes in <2.5 secs.

Paul G: Rivers is nuts. 44 and hasn’t played since 2020? No way that he’s in anything resembling the condition needed to play professional football. He’s taking his health—if not his life in his hands. With any luck (for him and his family), he’ll get creamed once in practice, face reality, and go back to the bosom of his family.

Danno: I’m going to blitz the E-man early and often. Strip sack returned for 6! I want him to regret this decision and play his way out of the HOF ala Russ!

Don Ellis: Riley Leonard’s knee strain is being described as a grade one sprain. Even then, I expect he will be limited for part of the week which will likely cut into his game prep. This is looking like a similar game to the Vikings game.

West Seattle Tim: But 44 years old and not playing at game speed for 5 years is a tough ask, even of a guy as smart as Rivers. Just because you know what to do doesn’t mean your body will respond after a 5 year off. Muscle memory changes with age, and sometimes it forgets, And add however many pounds he has packed on and this just becomes a crazy choice for the Colts.

La’au: This was a game I was worried about. Now, not so much. If old man Rivers gets in the game it’s going to be over.

For what it’s worth, I don’t think the Colts signed Rivers to “coach” Riley Leonard. The Colts already have quarterbacks coaches (in fact they have 3 prominent coaches in Steichen, Cooter, and Tanney who all played QB) and in an ego-driven business I don’t imagine they have the mindset to believe that Rivers can do more in 5 days than they’ve done for Leonard in six months.

I also don’t believe that practice squad QB Brett Rypien is under much consideration. Rypien made a start for the Rams in 2023 and it was one-thousand percent one of the worst games I’ve seen from an NFL quarterback in my life.

If Rivers doesn’t start for the Colts this weekend it’s either because the team realizes he’s just not physically capable of it (the Lions recently found this out when they attempted to bring back Frank Ragnow) or Leonard is cleared to play and Steichen figures he should give the rookie the start and just see how it goes with Rivers as the fallback option.

This is actually what happened when the Rams picked up Baker Mayfield on a Tuesday and played him on a Thursday in 2022: John Wolford got the start but Mayfield took over on the second series.

Rivers’ situation is not entirely unprecedented either. In 1998, the Falcons signed Steve DeBerg when he was also 44 and he also had not played in five years.

Deberg made seven appearances, including one start and it did not go well: The Falcons lost 28-3 to the Jets, one of only two losses by Atlanta all season. DeBerg was 9-of-20 with a pick. DeBerg was not as good of a quarterback as Rivers, but we’re not comparing prime-to-prime, are we? We’re comparing 44-year-olds who have not played for five years.

It’s hard to imagine this going well for Rivers, but if he plays I don’t expect the Colts to gameplan around their quarterback. I know quarterbacks are immensely important, but I also think we tend to get so obsessed with the position that we forget other players even exist and Indianapolis has plenty of talented “other players”. That wasn’t really the case with the Vikings and Falcons.

Bret: So, without any basis in true knowledge/experience, I have a theory that I confirmed data-wise with the help of AI. Rivers is, historically-speaking, among the QBs with an exceptionally quick release. He’s smart, experienced, and familiar with the current system used by the Colts.

I think the Colts can utilize his knowledge and experience to execute a run-heavy, short passing game that relies upon decision-making and quick passing.

I think they’ll probably play Rypien, but I pretend to see a bit of the possible rationale for Rivers.

I alluded to it earlier but I think Rypien is legitimately one of the worst quarterbacks on any roster or practice squad today, which is saying a lot given Monday’s article. He also hasn’t played that many more snaps than Rivers over the past five years.

I kind of think there are a lot of retired quarterbacks who could sling it better than Rypien today.

As far as your gameplan, it makes sense.

In 2020, Rivers was down to 7.2 air yards per attempt, which ranked 26th. He averaged 5.3 air yards per completion, which ranked 29th. So even in his last season, Rivers had to be a much more conservative passer than earlier in his career.

To me this game is less about Rivers against the pass rush as it is about Jonathan Taylor against Seattle’s top-ranked run defense. The Colts might not be so desperate if they weren’t staring down a nightmare mismatch on the ground this week; if the Seahawks can force the Colts into more passing situations, it could be turnover city.

Charley Filipek: The phrase “Someone to ride the river with” is a quote often attributed to Louis L’Amour, expressing the deep bond and shared spirit needed for tough wilderness journeys, highlighting finding a true, reliable companion who matches your drive and passion, much like finding someone who understands the wild and won’t hold you back. It signifies a connection of mutual respect, shared purpose, and genuine companionship, vital for surviving and thriving in challenging, natural environments.

I should read l’amour of him.

check out the credits at the bottom

Gavin: I’ve read a few comments about Emmanwori and the DROY award. It occurred to me that other than Emmanwori, I have absolutely no idea who the top rookie defenders are and what their stats look like. So my questions are: who are this year’s top contenders for DROY this year? And what are the arguments in favor of each?

Nick Emmanwori’s Defensive Rookie of the Year chances was something I briefly checked in on after Seattle’s win against the Falcons. There are only two contenders that people are taking seriously right now and Emmanwori trails Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger in the betting odds but there’s time to catch up, especially with this momentum.

Schwesinger, the first pick of the second round who went just ahead of Emmanwori, has 119 tackles, 10 tackles for a loss, 2 interceptions, and 1.5 sacks.

He has 14 “hustle stops”, fourth most among all players, which are tackles by a player who covers at least 20 yards of in-play distance. It’s that type of impressive effort that we want to see from all rookies, so I can see why Schwesinger is getting a ton of hype. He does play more run defense snaps because the Browns are so bad but he hasn’t had an inordinate amount; Rams linebacker Nate Landman has only played 15 fewer run defense snaps and L.A. hasn’t trailed very often.

Schwesinger is also asked to rush the passer at times and he has 16 pressures. In other words, you should think of Carson Schwesinger as a guy you would be POUNDING THE TABLE to win Rookie of the Year…if he was a Seahawk.

But I get it…Emmanwori is the Seahawk so that’s who we root for to win. I’ve never been of the mindset that we have to tear down someone else to build up another player. Emmanwori has to be able to win on his own merits and he might be able to:

53 tackles while playing from three different positions (250 snaps in the slot, 178 snaps from linebacker, 48 snaps from edge) with an interception, a blocked field goal, six tackles for a loss, 1.5 sacks, and nine passes defensed.

Emmanwori has also become Seattle’s second-busiest defensive player since he returned from injury, logging 93.3% of the defensive snaps. The Seahawks have been virtually unstoppable since Emmanwori’s return and he’s clearly one of biggest reasons why because Mike Macdonald keeps finding new ways to get an advantage by using his rookie “freak” week to week.

My argument would be that Emmanwori deserves to win because he’s already one of the best slot defenders in the NFL (his numbers from the slot are essentially the same as Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick on the same number of snaps) but that he’s also a pass rusher and a linebacker.

Schwesinger’s argument is that he’s already one of the best linebackers in the NFL and he didn’t miss 4-5 games.

My prediction is that if Emmanwori doesn’t have another huge game in the next two weeks, voters will side with Schwesinger for having a solid performance week in and week out because they already see him as someone who will carry the torch into the next generation of great linebackers.

Nobody else is even in talks. The irony is that the Falcons have the top two sack guys (Jalon Walker, James Pearce) and the top interception guy (Xavier Watts) and Atlanta’s defense is still bad. The last two winners have been pass rushers (Will Anderson, Jared Verse) but looks like it’s going to be a linebacker or Emmanwori this year.

Grant: Darnold vs JSN - who is the Seahawks MVP? Would you rather have Drew Lock throwing to JSN, or Sam Darnold throwing to everyone else?

That’s tough and I don’t really think the Seahawks would be the same size of contender in either of those situations. I can’t really envision Drew Lock as a good starter (we’ve been down this road far too many times for me to repeat this but we’ve seen Lock enough to know he’s only a good backup) and I’ve barely seen Sam Darnold do anything without Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

JSN has almost 50 percent of Darnold’s passing yards.

JSN has caught 9 of his 22 touchdowns.

JSN has caught 44% of Darnold’s first down throws.

Darnold is only a 65% passer to players who aren’t JSN compared to 74% on throws that go to JSN.

Furthermore, Darnold hasn’t proven capable of hitting other wide receivers with any consistency nor have other receivers proven to be worth it. Cooper Kupp is by far Seattle’s second-best receiver and he’s just not that valuable anymore. Tory Horton still has the second-most touchdowns (5) even though he’s missed the last five games.

Rashid Shaheed finally had a good game but it’s still just one game. We can’t make any assumptions about whether that’s a trend or a fluke. The proof will be in the pudding.

In other words, I’m extremely not-on-board to see the Seahawks without Darnold or JSN.

Hand to the fire, I’m calling Smith-Njigba more valuable than Darnold. That’s more of a nod to how good JSN is than it is a knock on Darnold and my comparison would be that I also think Amon-Ra St. Brown is the most important player on the Lions. JSN and St. Brown are both practically flawless players and although any receiver can be undercut by a bad quarterback (Justin Jefferson), they can sometimes also elevate mediocre quarterbacks into acceptable quarterbacks.

Now that he’s really been set free, JSN can make almost any competent quarterback valuable enough to win games.

Seaside Jay: SSJ is too modest and humble to toot his own horn so I’m going to do it for him! His wealth of knowledge of this fascinating sport has put me in the #1 spot in my office Fantasy Football league. Every week, SSJ analyzes my roster and my opponent’s roster with the same level of focus and care he does these newsletters. The man loves football and I love his dedication to his craft. Thanks, Seaside Joe!

Being pulled out of Fantasy Retirement in my 40s was not easy but maybe with just a hair of cognitive abilites left in my brain I was able to get the number one seed despite Kenneth Walker III literally only scoring one touchdown for us in the last 10 games.

Seaside Joe 2473