What if this year Geno proves he is “the guy”? He keeps his numbers up, cuts down on the fumbles and throws the ball away a few more times (instead of taking a sack).
I took a look at my post from twelve hours ago and did a Sgt Schultz (“I know nothing!”). Here’s another train of thoughtlessness:
Carolina gave up an awful lot to get a particular QB that they must rate as clearly better than the other top QBs. Otherwise, why not pay a lot less for Arizona’s pick and take whoever falls to them? So, if the Panthers think that one of the QBs is head-and-shoulders above the others, couldn’t Houston have drawn the same conclusion? If they did and it’s the same guy, maybe they don’t take a QB at all. It’s not like their roster is otherwise stacked.
Anyway, there are no doubt plenty of other ratholes to go down between now and draft day. That’s John Schneider’s job, and he’ll do it a lot better than me. Hard to resist, though…
Looking at the QB coach Pete and John just hired and his experience in developing young QBs into good QBs, I am thinking that the most likely scenario is that Pc/JS draft a QB with their first second round pick. With Geno on board for several more years that would give the team time to develop the new QB to take over for when Geno is gone. Their first two picks in the draft, I believe, will be defensive players who could fall to them at those positions. I'm hoping Will Anderson but won't be disappointed in Jalen Carter and the Linebacker from Washington State as the first two picks.
I think it is a virtual certainty that the Cards will trade with either the Raiders or the Falcons, resulting in all four QBs going before the Seahawks pick. We will have our choice of Will Anderson or Jalen Carter (not a bad choice). No matter how much AZ may love Anderson, there is no way they will decide to go with him, instead of trading down for a T Wilson PLUS a R2 this year and a R1 and another R2 next year. I am an Alabama alum and have seen all of Will Anderson's games. He is absurdly productive, a sack or two every game, constant pressure and disruption on the QB, a flawless character and a brilliant leader. He is basically another Bobby Wagner for your team but at Edge instead of ILB. And then there is Jalen Carter, the most physically gifted DT in a decade, but wrapped in red flags. John and Pete would have to employ a psychic, to predict Carter's future, to risk picking him, but he has the potential to make our defense go nuclear.
Mostly because the Texans are going to take Anderson #2. Arizona then may well take Carter #3 if they are happy with the legal & character issues (also it's Airzona, so would take him even with those questions, because y'know Arizona). Also with Cardinals almost certain to trade Hopkins that'd give them some extra draft ammo, and they really a DLine man so would be happy to sit and take their man (also why don't be surprised to see them take someone like Tyree Wilson, or even Skoronski because they need OLine help as well).
Raiders seem ever more set on a FA QB. Keep hearing them and Jimmy G pop up, or even see them taking a swing at extracting Tua from Miami! Falcons might well be happy to go with Ridder for one more year, give him a real chance - if it works, great they have a QB, if not they draft high in '24 to take a QB having used this year to bag more talent on the rest of the team.
I really think the trade up market is an awful lot colder than a lot of us imagine. Very few teams that could realisitcally trade up are a QB away (Panthers were kind of the only one), and would be better off sitting back and letting the draft come to them in either a QB (seriously, despite certain media buzz, Levis & AR could easily slip to the teens or beyond - just think back a year to the talk about Willis & Ridder, the comparisions are really obvious) or filling out other spots with talent (Raiders need more DB's, great draft for them to that early. Falcons needs Defence, great draft for them to do that, could also do with a bit more OLine or a Bijan Robinson).
Interesting take, my biggest objection would be that there isn't enough non-QB talent to preclude just taking QB's on speculation since there are very few sure stars in the non-QB talent pool this year. Some have high floors but their ceiling are lowish. Plenty could just plain bust.
Sure things are rare. Bijan, Anderson, and Carter. Who else? Tyree? Murphy? both of them played in lesser conferences and still didn;t ball out exactly. The tackles? not really top ten talent. None of these guys are Sauce Gardner.
If Anthony Richardson was a RB, he would likely be rated right up there with Bijan. That is the only reason I think he might be on John's radar. He could be used like Tasom Hill. Put him out there on select third down situations. Especially in the red zone. A very reduced group of plays that he might even throw the ball. Used correctly, he might pay for his scholarship.
Without being able to see into the future, this seems like a win-win trade for both teams. Pick 5 is more exciting because it's still so uncertain. Who'd want to have boing old pick #3?
it makes me think Pete is going to continue hyping the potential they picks QB as a ploy to get the raiders, titans, commanders, etc. to trade up with AZ. If so then we may have a shot at Anderson.
I can't have a two hour conversation with a friend without finding out I have missed a huge draft story. I'm surprised my spidey senses didn't tingle or anything, and this is just a massive surprise, scratch that, no, not surprise, but the timing is so interesting.
Coming a month ahead of the draft, giving the next team up to have their own auction, and so on and so forth until their are no more offers to trade up for a QB. If Carter is there, do we take him? Will there be a market for Carter?
Carolina must *really* like whoever they’ve settled on--that’s a huge price that I never thought they’d pay.
On the up side for the Hawks, they will have options: At least two of Anderson, Carter, Levis, and Richardson should be available. I figure:
1. Young
2. Stroud
3. Anderson or Carter
4. Levis or Richardson
5. ?
Still, the Colts could decide that if it’s not Young or Stroud, they aren’t taking a QB.
BTW, Brock Huard has an interesting perspective on Stroud. According to Huard, Stroud has great touch but not an especially big arm. Which the Hawks already have, plus ten years experience.
I'd be really surprised if Anderson didn't go to the Cards. Doesn't take a genius to see that a million miles off but it's the NFL draft so who knows. And who knows if Anderson turns out to be as good as promised but I like the odds with him way better than with Carter. At the same time, I'd be happy to take a chance on Jalen if Seattle thinks he checks out, character-wise. I suppose trade-down is still an option. I could see Washington, the Jets, the Bucks or the Dolphins (who am I leaving out?) wanting in on the 4th QB, perhaps Levis. Maybe they trade with Arizona and Anderson falls to us. Or they trade with us and we get an extra first rounder in 2024.
It's a good trade for the Bears, really nicely spreads out the returns over a few years. And DJ Moore is a great addition for a team that badly badly badly needed weapons for Fields to work with.
Do not overlook the posibility of the Texans taking Anderson at #2! Yes they do need a longterm QB answer. But the organizations history on high draft picks has primarily been to go Defence, and with Ryans coming in as HC that would feel even more likely. Add in that such a major overhaul is going on, the character impact of Anderson must also be considered alongside his on-field ability - just what the Texans need.
Maybe Ryans wants to bring in Jimmy G, something of a known quantity if not as strong as an OC would have. Would give the Texans a really solid base of play for 2-3 years as they sort out the rest of the roster after some horrid flailang courtsey of the O'Brien diaster era. (doesn't have to be Jimmy, but i really wouldn't be surprised to see the Texans adding one of the FA QBs and then seeing if AR/Levis comes to them at 12.
The Colts swap 3/4 to prevent another team from trading on draft night ahead because they want one of the two remaining. Cardinals do it because they still get to pick the number 1 defensive player. Cardinals trade with Moons on draft night for first round picks in next two rounds. That would be very smart for the Cardinals because they have major roster reconstruction to do. Murray is likely out for next year. Colts get stuck with last QB. Bottom line It is possible that Anderson will be there at 5. Odds are we take Anderson for the reasons you gave. In that scenario we won’t be able to trade back. More likely scenario is Carter or mystery Qb. Again it will be hard to trade down for value if the Seahawks don’t want the QB or Carter. No one is coming up for Carter, and if we are calling around the trade partner, who would come up for mystery QB knows we’re not taking him. Best bet we’re taking Carter because that’s how the board fell.
I would be happy with Carter. He's the best defensive player in the draft and we need a great D tackle after last year's run defense debacle. Fortunately for us the draft is loaded with good rush ends we could get later.
Sign B Wags and draft an outside LB. That leaves 1 center, 1 guard and 1 3rd receiver ( Brandon Cooks) and some depth pieces left to fill.
Draft Heaner in the later rounds a a back up and possible successor to Geno. 2023 looks good.
I can't imagine we'll have the cap space to draft Wagner. He was maybe the only bright spot for the Rams last season. Someone's going to pay him more than we can afford.
JS’s job just got easier. As Seaside Joe points out, the likely permutations with picks 1-4 just got simpler, and everyone important knows it.
This lets JS make and take phone calls at his leisure. “If these guys are still there when we pick, are you interested? We already know that these other guys will already be gone.”
That makes the first half of day one stress free. No need for last minute calls. Instead, the call will be, “We still doin’ it? Yes? The paperwork is on its way.”
That is a cool scenario but I doubt the teams would be willing to leak who they covet. But Ive only seen a movie about NFL GMs and ownership, and edited footage of the draft after it’s over so perhaps I’m way off. Teams seem very protective of their boards, though. It’s the other teams you’re trying to trade a pick to that I can’t imagine would want to divulge who they are after. That information tends to be heavily guarded even after the draft is over.
I cannot believe we would tip our hand by telling teams what players we don’t want. Teams in the fifth slot rarely trade and the way the board is shaping up it is going to hard to get much in value if we are marketing the pick beforehand.
What if this year Geno proves he is “the guy”? He keeps his numbers up, cuts down on the fumbles and throws the ball away a few more times (instead of taking a sack).
I took a look at my post from twelve hours ago and did a Sgt Schultz (“I know nothing!”). Here’s another train of thoughtlessness:
Carolina gave up an awful lot to get a particular QB that they must rate as clearly better than the other top QBs. Otherwise, why not pay a lot less for Arizona’s pick and take whoever falls to them? So, if the Panthers think that one of the QBs is head-and-shoulders above the others, couldn’t Houston have drawn the same conclusion? If they did and it’s the same guy, maybe they don’t take a QB at all. It’s not like their roster is otherwise stacked.
Anyway, there are no doubt plenty of other ratholes to go down between now and draft day. That’s John Schneider’s job, and he’ll do it a lot better than me. Hard to resist, though…
3:53-4:07– https://youtu.be/8Ps2lTqaVNw
Looking at the QB coach Pete and John just hired and his experience in developing young QBs into good QBs, I am thinking that the most likely scenario is that Pc/JS draft a QB with their first second round pick. With Geno on board for several more years that would give the team time to develop the new QB to take over for when Geno is gone. Their first two picks in the draft, I believe, will be defensive players who could fall to them at those positions. I'm hoping Will Anderson but won't be disappointed in Jalen Carter and the Linebacker from Washington State as the first two picks.
I think it is a virtual certainty that the Cards will trade with either the Raiders or the Falcons, resulting in all four QBs going before the Seahawks pick. We will have our choice of Will Anderson or Jalen Carter (not a bad choice). No matter how much AZ may love Anderson, there is no way they will decide to go with him, instead of trading down for a T Wilson PLUS a R2 this year and a R1 and another R2 next year. I am an Alabama alum and have seen all of Will Anderson's games. He is absurdly productive, a sack or two every game, constant pressure and disruption on the QB, a flawless character and a brilliant leader. He is basically another Bobby Wagner for your team but at Edge instead of ILB. And then there is Jalen Carter, the most physically gifted DT in a decade, but wrapped in red flags. John and Pete would have to employ a psychic, to predict Carter's future, to risk picking him, but he has the potential to make our defense go nuclear.
There have been three drafts where QBs went 1-3. I don’t think that the top four picks have ever been all QBs.
1971: Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning, Dan Pastorini
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith
2021: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance
Mostly because the Texans are going to take Anderson #2. Arizona then may well take Carter #3 if they are happy with the legal & character issues (also it's Airzona, so would take him even with those questions, because y'know Arizona). Also with Cardinals almost certain to trade Hopkins that'd give them some extra draft ammo, and they really a DLine man so would be happy to sit and take their man (also why don't be surprised to see them take someone like Tyree Wilson, or even Skoronski because they need OLine help as well).
Raiders seem ever more set on a FA QB. Keep hearing them and Jimmy G pop up, or even see them taking a swing at extracting Tua from Miami! Falcons might well be happy to go with Ridder for one more year, give him a real chance - if it works, great they have a QB, if not they draft high in '24 to take a QB having used this year to bag more talent on the rest of the team.
I really think the trade up market is an awful lot colder than a lot of us imagine. Very few teams that could realisitcally trade up are a QB away (Panthers were kind of the only one), and would be better off sitting back and letting the draft come to them in either a QB (seriously, despite certain media buzz, Levis & AR could easily slip to the teens or beyond - just think back a year to the talk about Willis & Ridder, the comparisions are really obvious) or filling out other spots with talent (Raiders need more DB's, great draft for them to that early. Falcons needs Defence, great draft for them to do that, could also do with a bit more OLine or a Bijan Robinson).
Interesting take, my biggest objection would be that there isn't enough non-QB talent to preclude just taking QB's on speculation since there are very few sure stars in the non-QB talent pool this year. Some have high floors but their ceiling are lowish. Plenty could just plain bust.
Sure things are rare. Bijan, Anderson, and Carter. Who else? Tyree? Murphy? both of them played in lesser conferences and still didn;t ball out exactly. The tackles? not really top ten talent. None of these guys are Sauce Gardner.
If Anthony Richardson was a RB, he would likely be rated right up there with Bijan. That is the only reason I think he might be on John's radar. He could be used like Tasom Hill. Put him out there on select third down situations. Especially in the red zone. A very reduced group of plays that he might even throw the ball. Used correctly, he might pay for his scholarship.
Without being able to see into the future, this seems like a win-win trade for both teams. Pick 5 is more exciting because it's still so uncertain. Who'd want to have boing old pick #3?
it makes me think Pete is going to continue hyping the potential they picks QB as a ploy to get the raiders, titans, commanders, etc. to trade up with AZ. If so then we may have a shot at Anderson.
I can't have a two hour conversation with a friend without finding out I have missed a huge draft story. I'm surprised my spidey senses didn't tingle or anything, and this is just a massive surprise, scratch that, no, not surprise, but the timing is so interesting.
Coming a month ahead of the draft, giving the next team up to have their own auction, and so on and so forth until their are no more offers to trade up for a QB. If Carter is there, do we take him? Will there be a market for Carter?
His legal situation is far from clear. https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/could-jalen-carter-face-more-serious-charges-uga-crash-lawyer-says-yes/3TY3G6PKRVAP5C7TG3GEANSRQI/ I think if everything is settled before the draft and he isn’t charged with more then he probably won’t slide much at all. Talent trumps everything. But I won’t be cheering the pick.
Carolina must *really* like whoever they’ve settled on--that’s a huge price that I never thought they’d pay.
On the up side for the Hawks, they will have options: At least two of Anderson, Carter, Levis, and Richardson should be available. I figure:
1. Young
2. Stroud
3. Anderson or Carter
4. Levis or Richardson
5. ?
Still, the Colts could decide that if it’s not Young or Stroud, they aren’t taking a QB.
BTW, Brock Huard has an interesting perspective on Stroud. According to Huard, Stroud has great touch but not an especially big arm. Which the Hawks already have, plus ten years experience.
Jimmy G and the Colts Irsay will love that. Or they haven’t tried Baker yet. They are desperate.
#88.
I'd be really surprised if Anderson didn't go to the Cards. Doesn't take a genius to see that a million miles off but it's the NFL draft so who knows. And who knows if Anderson turns out to be as good as promised but I like the odds with him way better than with Carter. At the same time, I'd be happy to take a chance on Jalen if Seattle thinks he checks out, character-wise. I suppose trade-down is still an option. I could see Washington, the Jets, the Bucks or the Dolphins (who am I leaving out?) wanting in on the 4th QB, perhaps Levis. Maybe they trade with Arizona and Anderson falls to us. Or they trade with us and we get an extra first rounder in 2024.
NOooo....
The Panthers are supposed to trade a bunch of 2024 draft capital to the SeaHawks for the #5 pick. How dare they screw up my perfect daydream?
There goes my PFF mock draft strategy. They were always good to take to the cleaners trading that #5 pick.
It's a good trade for the Bears, really nicely spreads out the returns over a few years. And DJ Moore is a great addition for a team that badly badly badly needed weapons for Fields to work with.
Do not overlook the posibility of the Texans taking Anderson at #2! Yes they do need a longterm QB answer. But the organizations history on high draft picks has primarily been to go Defence, and with Ryans coming in as HC that would feel even more likely. Add in that such a major overhaul is going on, the character impact of Anderson must also be considered alongside his on-field ability - just what the Texans need.
Maybe Ryans wants to bring in Jimmy G, something of a known quantity if not as strong as an OC would have. Would give the Texans a really solid base of play for 2-3 years as they sort out the rest of the roster after some horrid flailang courtsey of the O'Brien diaster era. (doesn't have to be Jimmy, but i really wouldn't be surprised to see the Texans adding one of the FA QBs and then seeing if AR/Levis comes to them at 12.
Totally agree with this take. I fully expect Ryans to want Anderson at 2. We'll see if they sign a QB before the draft.
The Colts swap 3/4 to prevent another team from trading on draft night ahead because they want one of the two remaining. Cardinals do it because they still get to pick the number 1 defensive player. Cardinals trade with Moons on draft night for first round picks in next two rounds. That would be very smart for the Cardinals because they have major roster reconstruction to do. Murray is likely out for next year. Colts get stuck with last QB. Bottom line It is possible that Anderson will be there at 5. Odds are we take Anderson for the reasons you gave. In that scenario we won’t be able to trade back. More likely scenario is Carter or mystery Qb. Again it will be hard to trade down for value if the Seahawks don’t want the QB or Carter. No one is coming up for Carter, and if we are calling around the trade partner, who would come up for mystery QB knows we’re not taking him. Best bet we’re taking Carter because that’s how the board fell.
I would be happy with Carter. He's the best defensive player in the draft and we need a great D tackle after last year's run defense debacle. Fortunately for us the draft is loaded with good rush ends we could get later.
Sign B Wags and draft an outside LB. That leaves 1 center, 1 guard and 1 3rd receiver ( Brandon Cooks) and some depth pieces left to fill.
Draft Heaner in the later rounds a a back up and possible successor to Geno. 2023 looks good.
My bets Hooker in the second.
Heaner in the 3rd
I can't imagine we'll have the cap space to draft Wagner. He was maybe the only bright spot for the Rams last season. Someone's going to pay him more than we can afford.
JS’s job just got easier. As Seaside Joe points out, the likely permutations with picks 1-4 just got simpler, and everyone important knows it.
This lets JS make and take phone calls at his leisure. “If these guys are still there when we pick, are you interested? We already know that these other guys will already be gone.”
That makes the first half of day one stress free. No need for last minute calls. Instead, the call will be, “We still doin’ it? Yes? The paperwork is on its way.”
That is a cool scenario but I doubt the teams would be willing to leak who they covet. But Ive only seen a movie about NFL GMs and ownership, and edited footage of the draft after it’s over so perhaps I’m way off. Teams seem very protective of their boards, though. It’s the other teams you’re trying to trade a pick to that I can’t imagine would want to divulge who they are after. That information tends to be heavily guarded even after the draft is over.
I cannot believe we would tip our hand by telling teams what players we don’t want. Teams in the fifth slot rarely trade and the way the board is shaping up it is going to hard to get much in value if we are marketing the pick beforehand.
Not a problem. JS can also ask, what if [the guy we would take] is available?
And if the haul is great enough, he might just take it!
Basically, he can ask about every top player. No cards revealed.