Belief and Skepticism: 2-1 Seattle Seahawks

Will Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and defense continue on current trajectories? Seaside Joe 1669

Before the season, I wrote an NFL predictions article sharing which teams I believed in and which ones I was skeptical of (don’t read what I wrote about the Miami Dolphins) and I felt it a good chance to lay that format on the Seattle Seahawks after three games.

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Seahawks rank 10th in points per drive: Believe

I choose to believe that Seattle’s scoring average will continue because the Seahawks also ranked 10th in points per drive in 2022.

Seahawks rank 31st in points per drive allowed: Skeptical

I choose to be skeptical that Seattle will continue to rank second-to-last in scoring defense, largely because that’s just so terrible. I know that some teams have to be at the bottom, but the Seahawks should have the talent to climb out of the basement over the course of a 17-game schedule.

The Seahawks have allowed 88 points in three games, which is bad. However, Seattle was even worse last season between Weeks 2-5, allowing over 35 points per game, and then the defense settled down over the rest of the season.

Think of all the components on defense that could improve by October: Getting back Jamal Adams, getting back Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon getting more comfortable, Boye Mafe getting healthy, Jordyn Brooks getting back to speed…Lots of gets, ya get?

I also can’t predict what potential losses or injuries could happen between now and then, including whether or not Dre’Mont Jones, Darrell Taylor, and/or Tre Brown miss any games, but I see more momentum building towards an improved defense…and it is almost impossible to do worse without giving up 70 points in a single game.

Seahawks rank 3rd in YPC allowed: Skeptical

You take out Cam Akers getting 26 yards on 22 carries and Seattle’s had an average run defense. I’m not so much concerned with how the Seahawks do against the worst former starting running back in the NFL or Miles Sanders, I’m much more worried about how they do against Christian McCaffrey and D’Andre Swift and James Conner.

Stuff the offenses that you couldn’t stop before and then I won’t be skeptical.

Seahawks have had one turnover: Skeptical

Seattle turned the ball over in all but one game last season. We saw Geno Smith get away with several potential interceptions in the last two games prior to throwing one right at Panthers linebacker Deion Jones.

I’m trusting of the running backs being able to protect the football and I don’t think Geno is careless, but he’s not going to finish the season with four interceptions and zero fumbles. Therefore, the Seahawks are going to need to get back to forcing turnovers, as they didn’t have any takeaways against the Rams or Panthers.

DK Metcalf on pace for over 1,300 yards: Believe

Tyler Lockett averaging 5 yards per target: Skeptical

I don’t know that he will keep catching 80% of his targets, but DK Metcalf has been Geno’s best receiving weapon this season and should continue on that path. He’s already had 1,300 yards once before and at 25, the best may be yet to come.

I keep telling people that something happens to receivers after turning 30 and then the skepticism is turned back on me. However, I don’t see the 31-year-old Lockett falling off a cliff that steep just yet. Lockett averaged 16.9 yards per catch in 2021, then 12.3 in 2022, and he’s currently at 7.9.

Lockett ranks 125th in yards per target this season and there are only six receivers with a lower yards per catch average, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

I believe Lockett’s numbers will improve over the course of the season, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t hit 1,000 yards this time.

Third Down Offense ranked 28th: Skeptical

Third Down Defense ranked 31st: Belief

Two of the key takeaways for Pete Carroll so far are that the Seahawks need to be better on third downs and in the red zone. I choose to be skeptical that Seattle is a bottom-five third down offense, but I choose to believe that the Seahawks could have third down troubles on defense for a while.

Offensively, the Seahawk seem to have too much talent to keep falling short of their third down attempts and I could see continued contributions from Zach Charbonnet as a reason for improvement. The Seahawks leaned on Charbonnet in the fourth quarter as a spark plug behind Ken Walker and that feels like the formula that Pete was going for when drafting back-to-back second round running backs: Keeping them both fresh. The continued development of rookies Charbonnet and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, plus the eventual returns of Charles Cross and Abe Lucas to keep Geno Smith well-protected, should help Seattle’s offense in the long run.

Defensively, I don’t know, man. I’ll get more to it in the final section coming up, but do the Seahawks actually have the pass rush talent to keep teams on their toes on third downs? The red zone defense is also 32nd this season, but I’d be more hopeful that can improve because Pete’s typically had better red zone defenses.

As far as the red zone offense, it hasn’t been that bad but that’s partly because most of Seattle’s drives didn’t quite reach the red zone prior to settling for five Jason Myers field goals in Week 3. What Pete is concerned about isn’t just red zone offense, it’s the entire drive: The Seahawks need to be able to go the length of the field and they haven’t proven capable of doing that consistently.

Seahawks edge rushers have combined for 1 sack: Worried!

I’m not going to list belief or skepticism for this one because I think the answer is “a bit of both”. Overall, I’m just worried that even if Uchenna Nwosu, Derick Hall, and Darrell Taylor won’t finish their seasons with zero sacks (like they each have now), they won’t be the quarterback wreckers that Pete, Clint, and BT Jordan were hoping they would be.

Boye Mafe has the only sack of the entire outside linebacker group and he missed Week 2.

Jarran Reed now leads the team with 1.5 sacks, followed by Dre’Mont Jones, Mafe, Tre Brown, and Jordyn Brooks. Not ideal when a cornerback has more sacks than the guys being paid to rush the quarterback. Reed has five pressures, while nobody else has more than two.

I’m of course skeptical that Nwosu will be this ineffective, but I’m not going to say that I believe it will get a lot better this season.