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C-note Thoughts
On Thursday, Justin Fields saw his odds of going to the 49ers jump over Mac Jones’ odds, who’d been the favorite since San Francisco traded up. Now people are incorrectly losing their minds and betting on Fields, but I don’t believe that anything changed based on a pro day. I know that a lot of people hate Mel Kiper because you’ve seen him on your TV for 20 years and once he said a thing about a prospect ya didn’t agree with…let’s get over that, ok? Kiper is adamant that quarterback pro days do not matter. Fans made that up in their heads, mostly. Teams too, maybe. But I think Kiper’s plenty well plugged into the NFL draft and I don’t see why he’d be wrong about Jones to the 49ers now. Which he tripled down on today, saying that Jones is still 85-percent likely to go to San Francisco.
Am I supposed to lay out some disclaimer like “gamble responsibly” or some shit? Look, how about I say this, DON’T GAMBLE. I’m just observing some odds that don’t make sense to me …
Mac Jones at +110 to go to the 49ers seems like a steal. It bounced this morning in Fields’ favor but will it swing right back?
What if I’m right about Justin Fields sliding outside of the top-ten? I think all he has to do really is get past the Broncos. Fields to Washington — who I think would trade up for him — is +1000.
What if I’m right about Trey Lance sliding outside of the top-20? Lance to the Bucs is +10000. Tampa Bay trading up for a QB right now, especially if Lance gets past the Patriots at 15, is perfectly reasonable to me. But Lance to any team other than Denver or San Francisco seem like great odds to me. Lance to the Saints is +1600; Bears is +1000; Steelers is +2000; Raiders is +5000. Lance Vegas writes itself.
Nobody has any idea where these QBs are going, but once you accept that the 49ers are almost certainly leaning heavily towards Jones, the rest falls into place. If you remain in denial like the rest of the internet, definitely don’t risk your money on it.