Between a Brock and a hard pLAce
The NFC Championship goes through the NFC West
As of Saturday night, the Seahawks still did not know which team is traveling to Seattle for the divisional round of the playoffs next week. But we did find out that at least one NFC West team is going to play in the NFC Championship game in two weeks.
If the 49ers beat the Eagles on Sunday, it could be two NFC West teams reaching the NFC Championship because that outcome would send San Francisco back to the northwest just two weeks after the Seahawks beat them to win the number one seed.
Not bad for an area of the country that most people on the eastern seaboard thought fell into the ocean along with Snake Plisskin in Escape from L.A..
There are only three NFC teams on the left coast and only seven teams total that are west of Dallas, Texas. Five of them are still in the running for the Super Bowl, including both number one seeds:
I wish I could say I have some sort of geographical pride about this, but I don’t. If anything, it just means that Seattle’s divisional round opponent will literally have the shortest possible road trip to get to Seattle:
If the 49ers beat the Eagles on Sunday, San Francisco is going to Seattle (closest NFL team)
If the Eagles beat the 49ers, then the L.A. Rams are going to Seattle (second-closest) next week
On top of the Seahawks facing a team that knows what it’s like to smell the Pacific Ocean on a chilly Sunday morning, the Rams are the biggest challenge facing Seattle left in the playoffs and the 49ers have a good argument for being the second-biggest.
If the Niners win on Sunday, the Seahawks schedule just to get to the Super Bowl could actually be: Week 16 Rams, Week 17 Panthers, Week 18 49ers, Divisional Round 49ers, NFC Championship Rams.
Seattle would need to go 4-0 against the two best non-Seahawks teams in the NFC over a six-week period.
But first the 49ers would need to beat the Eagles, a scenario that became increasingly favorable after Saturday’s wild card starter plate.
Rams 34, Panthers 31
For as much as the Rams struggled in the middle of the game, boy it sure looked easy when Matthew Stafford needed a two-minute touchdown to secure the win. L.A. got the ball back down 31-27 with 2:34 left and didn’t even face a single third down en route to the game-winner.
They only faced one second-and-long and they converted it for a first down. Right before the game-winning score to Colby Parkinson.
But two things true about the Rams is that their offense is really good (especially out of 13 personnel) and their defense is really bad. L.A.’s secondary could be the worst of any team in the playoffs and they’ve been a special kind of awful when protecting a lead in the fourth as seen in both of their games against the Panthers (Bryce Young has never looked better than he did in both games against the Rams this year) and their OT loss to Sam Darnold in Seattle.
The Rams have too much offensive talent (QB, OL, WR, TE, and RB) to call it a favorable matchup, but in a weird way it could be a good draw for Darnold because L.A.’s looked incompetent with a lead so you’re never out of it.
Stafford hurt his finger during the game and went on a cold streak but if it was that serious it seems like it would have been a much bigger story/been harder for the Rams to score at the end.
(If you take out the Cardinals, the only teams that the Rams have beaten in the last two months are the Lions and yesterday against the Panthers needing a last minute touchdown; in both games the defense helped the other QB look like an MVP.)
Again, if the EAGLES win on Sunday, then the Rams are going back to Seattle. That would also send Philadelphia to Chicago and one of those teams would reach the NFC Championship game.
If the NINERS beat the Eagles, then San Francisco is going to Seattle.
Bears 31, Packers 27
Saturday’s newsletter was about the coaching cycle and mentioned that Matt LaFleur could lose his job if the Packers didn’t win this game. This article is scheduled to go out Sunday morning, so I’m not sure if any news on that front has already dropped by the time you read this.
It’s not really a matter of if LaFleur “deserves” to be fired. It’s that he coaches for a franchise that expects to go to the Super Bowl and LaFleur is 0-for-7 under those terms. The only Packers coach who survived a longer Super Bowl drought than that was Bart Starr and he’s Bart Starr.
The Bears survive despite a defense that allowed 323 yards and 4 touchdowns to Jordan Love. I don’t think Seattle’s going to come close to 46 pass attempts if they end up facing Chicago’s defense at some point but that’s fine because the Bears also ranked 29th in yards per carry allowed.
The 49ers beating the Eagles is also a dream scenario for the Rams because then L.A. gets to play the Bears instead of the Seahawks and that defense + Caleb Williams should be less of a challenge for Sean McVay and Stafford than the Carolina Panthers were.
Caleb and Love are obviously both talented but do either of them actually know how to “quarterback” against a good defense? They both completed 50% of their attempts against bad defenses.
What’s next?
Bills-Jaguars are 10 AM, 49ers-Eagles at 1:30, Chargers-Patriots at 5:15.
Come join us to talk about the games:
I know a lot of fans look at what opponent would give us the most favorable path to the Super Bowl, but all I wanted was too be in control of our destiny. Especially after last year where we had to hope for teams we weren’t playing to either win or lose for us to make the playoffs. We lost control of our destiny when the Rams beat us in the first meeting, but gained it back. We control our destiny to the Super Bowl. We haven’t played the Eagles, but their offense doesn’t look anything like the Rams or 49ers. I can’t imagine they would be able to run up the score on us. I don’t think the Rams can beat us unless we beat ourselves with turnovers, and I think we are superior to the 49ers. Second half Chicago would be a tough out, but first half would be an easy win. If somewhere in between shows up, we’re a better team.
If we’re a zero or one turnover team from here on out, we’re likely Super Bowl champs with the possible exception of the Rams if they go without a turnover and we do turn it over. I think Sam will play well. I don’t mind playing them next week. In fact, I think it would be easier to get to the Super Bowl if we do get them next week. We’re rested, and ready. Whoever we play after that will be an easier game. Bring on the Rams!
I certainly don't mind the rams next, right after we rested and they have the extra bumps and bruises, but that means we'll have to face the Eagles or Bears next. I don't fear any remaining teams, especially not the Bears and their defense.
Ultimately, I can't ever root for the 9ers or Rams, even if it would be easier on us. The FTR is strong in this one.