Cooper Kupp's hidden value

Is Cooper Kupp cooked?

Receivers don’t get paid $15 million per year to block, but if he gets shut down in the passing game then it’s a nice bonus to know that the player does involve himself in other ways and that’s why Cooper Kupp’s first game with the Seahawks was not a total loss. Kupp’s debut with Seattle only produced two catches for 15 yards, an underwhelming total to be sure; he only had one game that bad in 2024, which was when the 49ers held him to 0 yards.

However, count the ways that Kupp’s debut was not as bad on the field as it was in fantasy leagues:

1—Kupp has always been a willing and effective run blocker, which the following film study will show even though the Seahawks struggled to run the ball against San Francisco.

2—Kupp drew a pass interference penalty in the end zone, setting up the Seahawks for their only touchdown of the game.

3—Kupp was open in the red zone a second time on Seattle’s last offensive play of the game, perhaps only not scoring because Sam Darnold didn’t throw him the ball.

Can the Seahawks justify signing Kupp for as much as they did ($17.5 million guaranteed) if he ends the season with 400 receiving yards and a good blocking reel? Absolutely not.

But is Kupp going to continue to get targeted on only 13% of his routes — compared to 62% for Jaxon Smith-Njigba — and be held every time he beats his corner to the corner of the end zone? I doubt it.

In Wednesday’s Seaside Joe, the topic of Darnold’s first game with the Seahawks came up and I think the biggest takeaway for the quarterback and the offense as a whole had to be the lopsided time of possession and lack of opportunities for Seattle’s skill players to put up better numbers:

• Seahawks lost TOP battle 38 minutes to 22 minutes

• Seahawks had the 3rd-worst average time per drive (2:12)

• Seahawks ran the 5th-fewest plays of any team in Week 1

When you’re comparing wide receivers based on fantasy numbers and wondering why (X) put up more yards than (Y), the simplest explanation to start with is simply the number of opportunities they had in their respective contests. For example, look at “breakout” Bills receiver Keon Coleman:

• 8 catches

• 112 yards

• 1 TD

Coleman had a good game against the Ravens. But the Bills also ran 78 offensive plays, the most of any team in Week 1, and over 50% more plays than the Seahawks.

• Keon Coleman ran 44 routes

• Kupp ran 22 routes

• Coleman was targeted 11 times (25% target share)

• Kupp was targeted 3 times (13% target share)

Even JSN only ran 21 routes, less than half as many routes as Coleman, making it all the more amazing that JSN had the third-most yards of any player in Week 1. (JSN’s 5.9 yards per route was the third-best mark after Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua.)

And not only is Josh Allen an elite quarterback, he threw 46 passes in a back-and-forth shootout with the Baltimore Ravens — twice as many pass attempts as Darnold. If the Bills had signed Kupp in free agency instead of Josh Palmer, does Kupp then maybe 50-60 yards in his 2025 debut? (Palmer was targeted 9 times and he’s only Allen’s third priority.)

When the Seahawks signed a 32-year-old receiver whose been averaging 750 yards per season lately to be WR2, they opened themselves up for potential criticism if Cooper Kupp had games like the one he had in Week 1. We know that.

However, if Kupp’s signing is to be deemed as a failure in the future, it shouldn’t be solely because of volume-based, fantasy stats reasons.

Because even though Kupp can’t be worth $15 million if he only has 15 yards, we don’t know yet if he’s at fault for that. We don’t know if Darnold didn’t see Kupp, doesn’t trust Kupp enough, or if the 49ers simply had better players covering Kupp than they had covering JSN.

Although Kupp wasn’t as wide open as JSN, we also know that he’s never been in the NFL because he’s a burner. Kupp is not reliant on speed or athleticism. He’s got to have some level of chemistry with the quarterback and the quarterback has to trust that sometimes Kupp is open when he doesn’t seem open.

And things will have to change in Week 2, so we may see an entirely different outcome for Kupp as compared to Week 1. It would be one thing if the “only target JSN" offense scored 30 points, but Darnold will have to spread the ball around more against the Steelers if Seattle hopes to find the end zone more than once.

Seahawks fans should be optimistic that Cooper Kupp is better than 15 yards against the 49ers would indicate and these are some reasons why:

1 - Run Game Study by All-22

In Wednesday’s BONUS article for Seaside Joe Regular Joes readers, I covered some film studies about the Seattle Seahawks and their next opponent, the Steelers. One of those videos was by All-22, but he posted two more of them after my newsletter went live.

Even though the Seahawks did struggle to run the ball effectively, you will notice Kupp doing his job several times in this breakdown and giving both Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker better opportunities to gain yards than if he wasn’t out there blocking in front of them:

I’ll take a couple of screenshots here in case you don’t watch the video:

Here’s Kupp before the play, about to combo block the defensive end with Abe Lucas:

And then this is Kupp after disengaging from the combo block to find #20, creating a lane for Charbonnet to run through:

Kupp was always a valuable run blocker for the Los Angeles Rams and from this film study it looks obvious that he’s continuing to bring that intensity and skill to the Seahawks at age 32.

Does run blocking change your opinion of Kupp’s first game at all?

2 - He helped score the touchdown!

The number one thing to say about the pass interference penalty in the end zone is that it happened on FOURTH DOWN. If Kupp doesn’t beat his man and get held, the Seahawks give the ball back to the 49ers and don’t score.

So let’s review this really fast:

First of all, here’s Upton Stout holding Kupp

Obvious.

Second, was the pass catchable? It actually does not matter. At least, not to the degree that fans think it matters. There is nothing in the rulebook about a pass needing to be “catchable” and refs only pick up a flag for pass interference if the ball is absurdly uncatchable.

Here’s a screenshot of the ball in the air:

If Kupp isn’t held, does it seem plausible to you that he could have lept up and caught that ball? If you’re still unsure, look at where the ball actually lands, which is just behind that cameraman with the blue hat on:

Does that look to be absurdly uncatchable? It’s not! That’s only about 3-4 yards out of bounds, a plausible leap for an NFL receiver.

And third of all, if the ball was uncatchable, that only makes drawing pass interference MORE valuable because it means that Seattle’s only hope of getting a score on the drive was IF Cooper Kupp drew a penalty.

The Seahawks got a first down instead of giving up the ball and then Charbonnet scored.

3 - Kupp also gets open for the potential game-winner

Here is Kupp at the 4-yard line, running to Darnold’s left, and Darnold still has the ball in his hands, ready to fire. He just didn’t see the open receiver:

So yeah, instead of having maybe two touchdowns, Kupp had zero touchdowns. A very close reality adjacent to this one sees Kupp score 1-2 touchdowns without even needing to create additional plays. However, there is still a Seahawks world in which Mike Macdonald, Klint Kubiak, and Darnold should have been creating more plays for the offense to run on Sunday.

• The Seahawks should run 65-70 plays, not 50

• Receivers should run 35-40 routes, not 20

• Kupp shouldn’t have a 13% target rate and Tory Horton (0/16 routes) shouldn’t have a 0%

• Macdonald should try to score more touchdowns instead of settling for field goals and midfield punts; maybe not all the time, but certainly sometimes

It’s not that the Smith-Njigba isn’t good enough to dominate Darnold’s attention, but is that going to be warranted with every game plan? Especially if the offense scores 13 points, punts on 50% of their drives, loses two fumbles, settles for two field goals, and only scores on touchdown?

Not being able to sustain long drives is the exact same problem as the previous few offensive coordinators in Seattle, so Kubiak needs to tweak the formula in Week 2 against the Steelers or he’ll soon find himself lumped in with the maligned play caller he replaced. Whether that means more Kupp, more Horton, or more tight ends, it shouldn’t really matter to fans.

We’ll welcome a breakout game from Elijah Arroyo just as much — even more so — as Kupp.

But did Week 1 prove that Kupp is cooked? We can’t find out until the Seahawks actually turn on the heat.

Cody White released

The Seahawks released Cody White on Thursday and promoted Shaquill Griffin from the practice squad to the active roster. This move is a clear answer to some questions about Devon Witherspoon’s availability and Tariq Woolen’s job security. White will most likely be on the practice squad in a matter of hours.

Seattle also tried out a punter, but the speculation is that this is not about Michael Dickson. Apparently he is the same footed as the Saints punter and Seattle is facing New Orleans in Week 3, so this could be a practice squad addition.

Seaside Joe 2383