I could see the usual trade back this year if there aren't many 1st rd graded dudes. The only caveat to that is if JS views pick 32 as essentially the 1st 2nd rd pick (not sure of the salary difference), then maybe he sticks and picks his top 2nd rd talent instead of trading back
This is why I thought the Hawks should cut Kupp and sign K9. Their WR room is better than their RB room and WR is allegedly a better “positional value” pick at 32 than RB.
Fortunately for all of you fans, JS is running the team, not me!
I think JS picks best available regardless of position, unless he can trade down for more picks. If that is a receiver, then so be it.
I expect JSN to get a lot less targets than last year. Don’t have the numbers in front of me but he was on a historic pace for the first 2/3 of the season and then his targets diminished. Teams caught onto the Darnold-JSN connection and started to defend him differently. I wouldn’t rule out a WR based on target share alone. Players also get hurt, e.g. Horton and Arroyo. And that 5th year option is great to have on a receiver, ala JSN.
A team like ours has the luxury of picking best player available and probably should. If it's a RB, WR, edge or CB that's icing on the cake but BPA just seems like the overall best approach on a team with few to no holes.
Isn't there a statistic somewhere that supports BPA as the best drafting approach?
If the Seahawks believe in your "WRs don't need acclimation" theory, then no they aren't picking one bc he's not getting on the field much this year.
Coaches are going to play the guys they think will produce. I've very rarely seen otherwise. If it's a tie, sure, play the young guy to get him reps. Note that Rylie Mills, everyone's favorite post-SB darling, was getting like 3 plays a game after he was activated. They weren't taking LW, or JR, or BM, or anyone else off the field for Rylie, who it (almost) goes without saying isn't nearly as good (now).
In 2025 on 3rd and 4th down, key moment in the game, and the Seahawks just absolutely, positively had to have a conversion... It was Kupp more often than any other WR. Do the coaches trust any other pass-catcher more than JSN on this team? No. So to me that makes Kupp the second best receiver (not mentor) on the team, still, until someone knocks him off that pedestal. Will this be the year? Maybe, but given this roster... probably not. Shaheed and Barner don't have those skills, Horton doesn't have the health, Arroyo... unlikely.
Has anyone done the math...how high could we move up if we trade all our picks from this year.? If there's no real holes to plug and the players coming in are meh options...why not just go get the one guy that could maybe actually help the team if they happen to fall to where we can move up and go get them.
What if instead of trading the whole draft to move up, we traded everything to gain extra picks in the second and/or third rounds? Imagine what JS could do with three or four extra picks in that range.
I did the math December 28. (Don't ask.) Here's what I came up with, using the standard trade value chart:
1=590 (pick 32)
2=270 (pick 64)
3=116 (pick 96)
All three total 976, gets us to 17
1+3 total 706, gets us to 26
1+2 total 860, gets us to 20
2+3=386, gets us to 51/52
That's not to say we couldn't throw in some future draft choices, or a player to be named later, or whatever. My sense, listening to entirely too many draft podcasts, is that there aren't more than a handful of blue chip prospects in this draft, and the experts aren't even agreed on who those prospects might be.
My current hunch is that our best bet is to trade out of 64, because I can't find players in that range who make sense. AND...the fun picks, the chances that might prove out, the guys who are quite possibly as good as players ranked rounds above them...and I know the odds decrease the further down the draft one goes...I think the most useful thing to do is acquire as many day three picks as possible and take chances. If we can slip down four or five slots out of 32, great. Otherwise we might end up drafting someone rated, I dunno, well into the 40s. I'd like to think that 5th year option has value at 32. Maybe not this year.
When I scan our roster I see depth concerns at a few positions. Imo CB, OLB/edge, WR, and RB stand out at first...big end and DT if you dig a little. I think finding some IOL depth and s challenger for AB would be up there near the top but what do I know....it'll be interesting to see how this all unfolds. I still like trading up for Fano. I also like trading down and up from 188 and make 4-5 picks before 100-110ish. It'll all depend trade partners and what people want to do now vs next year. In MM and JS we trust.
"But just because the Seahawks let Kupp get the $9 million guaranteed, it does not force Seattle to let Kupp get 70 targets next season."
It seems like JS is hedging his bets with WR this year. Why keep Kupp and pay Shaheed and retain Bobo? Those are all over-pays, in my opinion, albeit of different degrees. Right now the #2 receiver could be Kupp or Shaheed or Horton, and they might all get less targets than Barner or Arroyo. If you've got five #2 receivers then you don't really have one #2 receiver.
If we get to pick #32 and the only guy on John's board with a legit first round grade is a WR, then I hope he picks him. I really really doubt that guy will still be available at #32, however. The way JS has run free agency with his pass-catchers, I don't think he believes there will be an option to pick a WR either.
I’m going to disagree a little about the #2 thought there. Another way to look at it, and please read your list again, as a DC, who do you cover or concentrate on in that list. Yes JSN gets covered but then that means a lot of one on one or zone for SD to take apart. If the DC tries to take AJ and Kupp away, hit Horton or Rashid. I sort of like it. Against the Vikes for example, cover JJ and Addison, no one else scares you. See Rams last year. They sent 3-4 guys out. Puka clear #1 but then the multiple of #2 for Stafford, and he tore apart most defenses, including ours.
We've got a really fun WR/TE group. There's lots of versatility and potential. There's just not a lot of proven production beyond JSN yet. But, we just won a Super Bowl with this same group, so I'm not sweating the lack of an obvious #2 pass-catcher too much.
I really like using TEs. I was not expecting much from AJ but loving what he is doing. That TE wide open in the Rams game. Deception at the greatest. Agreed such a fun group with a lot of depth and different skills and roles.
Let me also add that our man, Jake Bobo seems to be pretty good at getting open on mid-depth routes over the middle of the field. I think having a bunch of #2's isn't such a bad idea. I'll concede, though, that what you might really have is a bunch of #3's. Maybe more importantly, we need good pass protection so Sam Darnold has an extra second to find somebody, anybody, who's open.
Which is what SD got this past year which is one reason he did so well. Seattle PBWR was 12th in the NFL. Not the top team but I’m not sure where you’re getting your thinking from. And Bobo being WR 5, and just listing a couple of names not the full team, they are interchangeable which is sort of the point. Yes, it could also be Bobo but as noted in the article, Kupp then AJ were 2nd and 3rd in targets. SJ went through the list in the article. Walker a distant 4th.
"This would be a fortuitous twist for the champs, as Price is the 43rd player on my board and slides only because teams attacked more premium positions."
I was of a mind that a WR was a possible draft pick with the loss of D Young and Bobo. But Bobo was signed. I was also of a mind that a WR was a possible draft pick if Horton’s injury is going to still be an issue in August. We fans are unlikely to get solid info on Horton for some time. If Horton is going to be good to go, We have JSN, Shaheed, Horton, Kupp, Bobo and Cody White, Ricky White and Broden on the roster. If there is no edge, CB, RB or lineman with a high enough grade at 32, I think it far more likely JS looks to trade back before taking a WR. We could trade back into the very early 40s and get another 3rd round pick. This would give us 4 picks on day two, where there is value and depth at Edge and CB, and we could get two other players - perhaps an IOL, WR RB or ?. I think the only way they take a WR at 32 is there are no highly graded CBs, Edges, IOL or DLs available and JS can’t find a trade back partner.
Hear me out - We draft a WR at #32. Then once Nacua has completed his self-destructive cycle forcing the Rams to say enough is enough (or the League), we trade Kupp to the Rams out of desperation. And we even offer to pay a reasonable amount of his contract to up the pick value. Then in 2027 we package the Rams pick up with one of our own and jump the Rams and take the next franchise corner piece. Everyone, except the Rams, wins!
Shaheed isn’t a proven WR2 or 3 yet, so there’s that. And there’s also the possibility of looking at a rotational situation where snaps are shared to keep legs fresh.
I can’t see them drafting a WR early either (if at all) but JS is a unicorn when it comes to this stuff.
I was one that was overly critical of JS. We hadn't been hitting in the draft or FA and our dead money was crazy. But he seemed to figure the fastest way up was to go rip off the bandaid and get the right pieces in place. I really like where he's taken us the last few years (obviously the super bowl helps validate this) but even if we don't win the super bowl we're a much better team that when you look at our OTC numbers aren't embarrassing like they were a few years ago. Just scan the top ten of every team on OTC and you can tell who's gonna be good and who won't. Follow the money!
I could see the usual trade back this year if there aren't many 1st rd graded dudes. The only caveat to that is if JS views pick 32 as essentially the 1st 2nd rd pick (not sure of the salary difference), then maybe he sticks and picks his top 2nd rd talent instead of trading back
This is why I thought the Hawks should cut Kupp and sign K9. Their WR room is better than their RB room and WR is allegedly a better “positional value” pick at 32 than RB.
Fortunately for all of you fans, JS is running the team, not me!
I think JS picks best available regardless of position, unless he can trade down for more picks. If that is a receiver, then so be it.
I expect JSN to get a lot less targets than last year. Don’t have the numbers in front of me but he was on a historic pace for the first 2/3 of the season and then his targets diminished. Teams caught onto the Darnold-JSN connection and started to defend him differently. I wouldn’t rule out a WR based on target share alone. Players also get hurt, e.g. Horton and Arroyo. And that 5th year option is great to have on a receiver, ala JSN.
Like I said BPA if no fair trade down.
A team like ours has the luxury of picking best player available and probably should. If it's a RB, WR, edge or CB that's icing on the cake but BPA just seems like the overall best approach on a team with few to no holes.
Isn't there a statistic somewhere that supports BPA as the best drafting approach?
If the Seahawks believe in your "WRs don't need acclimation" theory, then no they aren't picking one bc he's not getting on the field much this year.
Coaches are going to play the guys they think will produce. I've very rarely seen otherwise. If it's a tie, sure, play the young guy to get him reps. Note that Rylie Mills, everyone's favorite post-SB darling, was getting like 3 plays a game after he was activated. They weren't taking LW, or JR, or BM, or anyone else off the field for Rylie, who it (almost) goes without saying isn't nearly as good (now).
In 2025 on 3rd and 4th down, key moment in the game, and the Seahawks just absolutely, positively had to have a conversion... It was Kupp more often than any other WR. Do the coaches trust any other pass-catcher more than JSN on this team? No. So to me that makes Kupp the second best receiver (not mentor) on the team, still, until someone knocks him off that pedestal. Will this be the year? Maybe, but given this roster... probably not. Shaheed and Barner don't have those skills, Horton doesn't have the health, Arroyo... unlikely.
If there is someone that can D up Puka Nakua...don't over think it just go get him. That's my biggest headache for next year.
Has anyone done the math...how high could we move up if we trade all our picks from this year.? If there's no real holes to plug and the players coming in are meh options...why not just go get the one guy that could maybe actually help the team if they happen to fall to where we can move up and go get them.
What if instead of trading the whole draft to move up, we traded everything to gain extra picks in the second and/or third rounds? Imagine what JS could do with three or four extra picks in that range.
I really like my sims where I gain more picks in the 50-110,120 range. I think that's where the value is too.
I did the math December 28. (Don't ask.) Here's what I came up with, using the standard trade value chart:
1=590 (pick 32)
2=270 (pick 64)
3=116 (pick 96)
All three total 976, gets us to 17
1+3 total 706, gets us to 26
1+2 total 860, gets us to 20
2+3=386, gets us to 51/52
That's not to say we couldn't throw in some future draft choices, or a player to be named later, or whatever. My sense, listening to entirely too many draft podcasts, is that there aren't more than a handful of blue chip prospects in this draft, and the experts aren't even agreed on who those prospects might be.
My current hunch is that our best bet is to trade out of 64, because I can't find players in that range who make sense. AND...the fun picks, the chances that might prove out, the guys who are quite possibly as good as players ranked rounds above them...and I know the odds decrease the further down the draft one goes...I think the most useful thing to do is acquire as many day three picks as possible and take chances. If we can slip down four or five slots out of 32, great. Otherwise we might end up drafting someone rated, I dunno, well into the 40s. I'd like to think that 5th year option has value at 32. Maybe not this year.
I like your line of thinking...
When I scan our roster I see depth concerns at a few positions. Imo CB, OLB/edge, WR, and RB stand out at first...big end and DT if you dig a little. I think finding some IOL depth and s challenger for AB would be up there near the top but what do I know....it'll be interesting to see how this all unfolds. I still like trading up for Fano. I also like trading down and up from 188 and make 4-5 picks before 100-110ish. It'll all depend trade partners and what people want to do now vs next year. In MM and JS we trust.
We will do well in this draft because we have JS and at least 6 other teams have idiot owner/ GM,/ HC with Jerry Jones disease.
Maybe if Fleury finds that he's struggling with being a first time play caller, he can have Kupp take over for him.
lol. He’s like a coach already. Nice.
"But just because the Seahawks let Kupp get the $9 million guaranteed, it does not force Seattle to let Kupp get 70 targets next season."
It seems like JS is hedging his bets with WR this year. Why keep Kupp and pay Shaheed and retain Bobo? Those are all over-pays, in my opinion, albeit of different degrees. Right now the #2 receiver could be Kupp or Shaheed or Horton, and they might all get less targets than Barner or Arroyo. If you've got five #2 receivers then you don't really have one #2 receiver.
If we get to pick #32 and the only guy on John's board with a legit first round grade is a WR, then I hope he picks him. I really really doubt that guy will still be available at #32, however. The way JS has run free agency with his pass-catchers, I don't think he believes there will be an option to pick a WR either.
I’m going to disagree a little about the #2 thought there. Another way to look at it, and please read your list again, as a DC, who do you cover or concentrate on in that list. Yes JSN gets covered but then that means a lot of one on one or zone for SD to take apart. If the DC tries to take AJ and Kupp away, hit Horton or Rashid. I sort of like it. Against the Vikes for example, cover JJ and Addison, no one else scares you. See Rams last year. They sent 3-4 guys out. Puka clear #1 but then the multiple of #2 for Stafford, and he tore apart most defenses, including ours.
We've got a really fun WR/TE group. There's lots of versatility and potential. There's just not a lot of proven production beyond JSN yet. But, we just won a Super Bowl with this same group, so I'm not sweating the lack of an obvious #2 pass-catcher too much.
I really like using TEs. I was not expecting much from AJ but loving what he is doing. That TE wide open in the Rams game. Deception at the greatest. Agreed such a fun group with a lot of depth and different skills and roles.
Let me also add that our man, Jake Bobo seems to be pretty good at getting open on mid-depth routes over the middle of the field. I think having a bunch of #2's isn't such a bad idea. I'll concede, though, that what you might really have is a bunch of #3's. Maybe more importantly, we need good pass protection so Sam Darnold has an extra second to find somebody, anybody, who's open.
Which is what SD got this past year which is one reason he did so well. Seattle PBWR was 12th in the NFL. Not the top team but I’m not sure where you’re getting your thinking from. And Bobo being WR 5, and just listing a couple of names not the full team, they are interchangeable which is sort of the point. Yes, it could also be Bobo but as noted in the article, Kupp then AJ were 2nd and 3rd in targets. SJ went through the list in the article. Walker a distant 4th.
Field Yates : "Pick 64. Seattle Seahawks, Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame"
"This would be a fortuitous twist for the champs, as Price is the 43rd player on my board and slides only because teams attacked more premium positions."
... me, i don't know, just what The Field said.
I was of a mind that a WR was a possible draft pick with the loss of D Young and Bobo. But Bobo was signed. I was also of a mind that a WR was a possible draft pick if Horton’s injury is going to still be an issue in August. We fans are unlikely to get solid info on Horton for some time. If Horton is going to be good to go, We have JSN, Shaheed, Horton, Kupp, Bobo and Cody White, Ricky White and Broden on the roster. If there is no edge, CB, RB or lineman with a high enough grade at 32, I think it far more likely JS looks to trade back before taking a WR. We could trade back into the very early 40s and get another 3rd round pick. This would give us 4 picks on day two, where there is value and depth at Edge and CB, and we could get two other players - perhaps an IOL, WR RB or ?. I think the only way they take a WR at 32 is there are no highly graded CBs, Edges, IOL or DLs available and JS can’t find a trade back partner.
I agree with SSJ, NO
The Receiver room is set and there are guys in the wings who want a 2nd chance.
There are areas of greater concern and if you take those 4 or 5 positions and pick the BPA,
your building a stronger team for today and the future. Just Saying
Hear me out - We draft a WR at #32. Then once Nacua has completed his self-destructive cycle forcing the Rams to say enough is enough (or the League), we trade Kupp to the Rams out of desperation. And we even offer to pay a reasonable amount of his contract to up the pick value. Then in 2027 we package the Rams pick up with one of our own and jump the Rams and take the next franchise corner piece. Everyone, except the Rams, wins!
Shaheed isn’t a proven WR2 or 3 yet, so there’s that. And there’s also the possibility of looking at a rotational situation where snaps are shared to keep legs fresh.
I can’t see them drafting a WR early either (if at all) but JS is a unicorn when it comes to this stuff.
Speaking of unicorns,
“All the non-JSN believers from last season….”.
What the!?
I was one that was overly critical of JS. We hadn't been hitting in the draft or FA and our dead money was crazy. But he seemed to figure the fastest way up was to go rip off the bandaid and get the right pieces in place. I really like where he's taken us the last few years (obviously the super bowl helps validate this) but even if we don't win the super bowl we're a much better team that when you look at our OTC numbers aren't embarrassing like they were a few years ago. Just scan the top ten of every team on OTC and you can tell who's gonna be good and who won't. Follow the money!