Did Seahawks quietly demote a starter?

Bucs-Seahawks memory machine, "what's real?", and other Seahawks questions

I wish I didn’t have to think of Lee Roy Selmon every time the Seahawks played against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the “draft ones that got away” is part of being a team sports fan. You almost remember them better than the draft wins. Stephen Strasburg. Scottie Pippen. Lee Roy Selmon. So close and yet these are only memories of a Seattle timeline that didn’t happen.

The Bucs won a coin toss for the number one pick in 1976, giving the Seahawks first pick in the expansion draft and second in the college draft. Seattle’s advantage in the expansion draft didn’t amount to anything, but Tampa Bay’s first pick in the college draft was Selmon, a six-time Pro Bowl edge defender who won Defensive Player of the Year in 1979 and is in the Hall of Fame.

Second overall pick Steve Niehaus may have actually turned out better than Selmon — he won NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year over Selmon — but that was practically the only season of his career because of ensuing knee injuries.

The Seahawks debated between Niehaus, running back Chuck Muncie (three-time Pro Bowler), and mostly spent their time on the clock trying to trade down (fifth overall pick CB Mike Haynes was the overall DROY and is in the Hall of Fame). Things turn out however they’re supposed to turn out, I just couldn’t help but think of Selmon again when the Seahawks tweeted that this is the uniform matchup in Week 5:

What do you remember of the 1976 Seahawks and Niehaus? When I say “Draft what-ifs” what memories come to mind?

Every week, I ask the Super Joes founding members to send me questions about the Seahawks. If you want to get in on that next week, upgrade to Super Joes today!

Richard May: Would love to see your take on what is “for real” vs what is “pretend” with the team through 4 games.

As an example, I see their running stats getting stronger as the season progresses and the oline and backs get more used to running this system. I also see Darnold and the passing game regressing to the mean a bit (just the amount of love Darnold and his league leading PFF grades are getting is enough to regress).

Even though he does lead the NFL in yards per attempt (9.1 Y/A, which is 2 yards higher than his career average) and PFF grade (which I don’t consider to be a real thing), I actually don’t think Sam Darnold is due for much regression.

I don’t think that Darnold has been particularly lucky or unlucky. He’s actually on pace for fewer touchdowns and passing yards than he had in 2024 with the Vikings, his interception rate is only 0.2% lower than it was, and his success rate (47.2%) is the same as it was last year too. The only real out of the ordinary stat is maybe completion rate (70%) but we’ve seen completion rates go up league-wide for the past few years.

If Darnold was playing at some crazy MVP level with 12 touchdowns (he has 5) and 300 yards per game (he’s at 226), then yes, I’d say he’s due for some regression. I don’t see that. I think he’s having a pretty consistent season and it’s sustainable.

On the other hand, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on pace for 110 catches and 1,708 yards. That’s not totally unrealistic, but keep in mind that Ja’Marr Chase led the NFL last season with 1,708 yards. JSN is also averaging 11.8 yards per target, which would have ranked second in the NFL last year to Alec Pierce (only only 69 targets).

• The Seahawks franchise record is 1,303 yards by DK Metcalf in 2020.

• The franchise record for catches is 100, by JSN (2024) and Tyler Lockett (2020).

I’m gonna say that JSN probably doesn’t hit his pace but is capable of setting a new franchise single-season record for yards and catches.

The flipside to that is that some of these other receivers/tight ends have to start producing. It could be Cooper Kupp, Elijah Arroyo, Tory Horton…the supporting cost is on the low side and due for some positive regression. I agree that the offensive line should get better as the season progresses, particularly Grey Zabel; he’s the most physically gifted offensive lineman on the team and has the upside to be elite with more experience.

Defensively, I don’t see Boye Mafe, Derick Hall, and DeMarcus Lawrence ending the season with zero combined sacks. That seems “fake”. I do think that Byron Murphy, who has 2.5 sacks, could end up finishing the season in double-digits.

What would you say is real and fake?

Cavmax: Any update on Rylie Mills?

I wrote about Mills about four months ago, in case anyone wants a refresher on him. There’s some good videos in there that I didn’t make.

At the time, it seemed very possible that Mills would spend the entire season on IR. Mike Macdonald has recently said Mills could play for the team this year, but had no actual updates.

Chuck Turtleman: I just watched the Jags vs 49ers game last night and am starting to feel like that NFC South schedule isn’t going to be the cakewalk we thought it might be. Even the lowly Panthers beat the Falcons by 30 and allowed no points a week ago. And the Falcons whipped up on the Vikings the week before. We look very streaky running the ball and it doesn’t seem we have the running game to bury a team late, though there’s certainly some recency bias in that. The conference and division look up for grabs, and if there were ever a season to trade for a big name, this would be the year. The Packers aren’t looking great, the Eagles don’t look like the team they were last year, and the Lions and Seahawks are probably as dangerous as anyone. Do you feel like I am I off on these assessments?

Just to clarify, you mention both the Jags and the NFC South. You’re probably not the first person to conflate the two different South divisions but in either case the Seahawks end up playing them all: 7 of Seattle’s next 12 games are against teams in the AFC and NFC South.

Do I think the NFC South teams are being overlooked? No, I think the Panthers are terrible (my Panthers fan friend has said that he’s practically lost all interest by now) and beating the Falcons by 30 just tells me that Atlanta doesn’t really know who they are and how to repeat their success each week. On the Panthers, I really wonder if our old friend Dave Canales is the next scapegoat in Carolina.

This is no way reflects on whether or not the Seahawks will beat these teams, but I fully expect the Panthers, Saints, and Titans to be picking early in the 2026 draft, whereas the Falcons (who traded their first round pick to the Rams) could also flop hard on their faces.

I would say I mostly have respect for the Bucs and Colts, while the Jags could be decent and the Texans are sort of like the Falcons of the AFC.

Rusty: So what’s new with our NFC West brethren? What should we be happy/freaking out about?

Grant: I had a similar idea for a question, but specific to the Rams, as I see them as our biggest competition. Kenneth knows the Rams roster well. Four weeks into the season, are there any surprises with them?

I see the greatest weakness on the Rams being special teams. Although L.A.’s kickoff unit has taken the league by storm with a sort of knuckleball from Josh Karty that has been pinning teams deep…they’ve had multiple field goals blocked, they are really bad at punting, and Karty’s not totally reliable on his kicks.

The other weakness would be depth at receiver because in my opinion the offense is one of the worst in the league without Puka Nacua. The top two receivers so far this season are JSN and Puka and similarly we haven’t seen much from the depth behind them on either team, including Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams, both of whom show their age. I think the Seahawks have the better offensive line, which is the polar opposite of pre-season expectations.

Like last year, I would expect the NFC West to come down to Seattle and L.A..

The 49ers have ruled out Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings for Thursday’s game against the Rams. Players already on IR include Nick Bosa, Brandon Aiyuk (PUP actually), George Kittle, and starting guard Ben Bartch. It’s DEFCON whatever-the-bad-number-is in Santa Clara.

For all the media who keep saying “pay him, pay him, pay him” for anyone threatening to holdout, just remember how much money the 49ers gave to Purdy, Bosa, and Kittle this year, and Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, and Aiyuk last year.

Call me if the Cardinals have a winning record in December or don’t call me.

Flurb: Coach Kyle shouldn’t be surprised when injuries hit his aging roster. McCaff is one of tiny few 38 yo RBs in history (okay, he’s 29 chronologically, but has taken a beating) to average 50 touches per game (possible exaggeration, so sue me, I speak in vivid colors!) I’m happy to be a hawks fan!

You have to wonder if a 3-1 team hasn’t at least had talks about trading one of their only star players who is still healthy.

Grant: Drake Thomas and Tyrice Knight seem to be splitting snaps a lot more than I anticipated. Is this just a situational football arrangement because Thomas is better in coverage? I remember hearing MM praise him as a really good dime LB. Has Thomas just carved out a role for himself beyond special teams, or is Knight struggling and loosing snaps for being a liability?

Pardon my ignorance if I’m forgetting that Knight was ever injured in any of these games, but look at his snap counts this season:

If I were a box score detective, I would say that this is a clear sign of a player being demoted. Any other explanation would fall under the scrutiny of “coach just being nice when asked about player in public”.

Thomas has seen his snaps increase from 20% in Week 1 to as much as 66% in Week 4. I guess we’ll have to see if this trend continues on Sunday.

Bob: Big dudes! Talk about big dudes. I’m pretty sure our fortunes rest upon the shoulders of the big dudes on the O-line. A cosmic O-line is all about the time/space continuium...time for Sam and space for K9. Should we give Cabeldue a shot at RG? Do the ‘plug and slide two step’ with Olu and Sundell? Trade for an O-line upgrade (bub-bye Woolen)? Start scouting 400 lb Sumo wrestlers? Shave a gorilla and stick’m in at Guard? However we can make the O-line just a tad better...do it and snag another Superbowl! I’m getting old here...time to go for it...THIS YEAR!

I once read a book written by an offensive linemen and that helped me understand how hard it is to move up the depth chart. Coaches are so afraid of starters losing reps that they don’t want to give the backups any chances to prove themselves, but the backups are only getting practice reps against other backups so it’s hard to tell if they’re better. Injuries are so often the impetus to changes.

Even Olu Oluwatimi had to get injured for Macdonald to make the decision to give the job to Jalen Sundell. Last year, Connor Williams had to RETIRE to give a chance to Oluwatimi.

I think the Seahawks are going to continue to believe in Anthony Bradford, if only because that’s the starter they’ve invested in all year. I’m sure that John Schneider would love to trade for a guard if a really good opportunity presented itself, but those are hard to find at this time of year.

Bret: I’m interested in the relationship between what defenses are run against us and our success in the run game. Maybe this analysis is already out there, but i’m particularly curious whether we are trying to run against stacked boxes, whereas other teams are running against more pass-oriented defenses. Like I said, this was a spontaneous curiosity, and maybe a very brief search will reveal the answer.

It’s so funny that you ask this specific question, Bret. I wasn’t sure exactly what I would say but then I went to look up the stacked box rates at Next Gen Stats and wouldn’t you know it, the Seahawks are an outlier!

The Seahawks run into a stacked box (8+ defenders) on 38.2% of their runs, which is the highest rate in the NFL. They get “stuffed” on 26% of their runs, second-worst in the league behind the Raiders.

This could help explain why Zach Charbonnet is averaging 1.3 yards before contact (43rd out of 47) and Kenneth Walker’s YBC has gone up since Week 1, now standing at 2.4 YBC which is the league average. The highly-respected Lions offensive line is giving Jahmyr Gibbs an NFL-best 3.4 yards before contact.

Pete Carroll’s own Ashton Jeanty is dead last at 1.0 yards before contact.

The Seahawks run on 53% of their plays, which is the second-highest rate in the NFL behind the Eagles at 54.4%. The Eagles also see a lot of stacked boxes (32.8%) and guess what, they’re 29th in yards per carry (3.5) and they actually average fewer yards before contact than Seattle. Saquon Barkley is arguably the most talented running back in the NFL, but he’s seen his YPC drop from 5.8 in 2024 to 3.1 in 2025, bringing back memories of his time with the Giants.

Lane Johnson has missed a little bit of time in the past two games, but I can’t imagine this is the reason for Philly’s declining run game.

I don’t think the Seahawks can claim to have an offensive line like the Eagles or Lions yet, but I do like the personnel they have right now. Other than one or two changes, I believe in Seattle’s ability to run the ball better in the future; if teams start worrying more about Sam Darnold, it means fewer stacked boxes, more places to run, and better balance.

I never say I know what’s going to happen, but it seems to soon to be worried about the run game.

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