DK Metcalf's 3rd contract would be huge mistake
From Davante Adams to Cooper Kupp, every WR third contract has been a bust
I’ve always thought of Seattle sports fans as people who have a strong desire for their favorite teams to stay ahead of the analytical curve; to win smarter, not harder.
Considering that the face of FanGraphs, the premier baseball analytics site, at the time that I started using it was a former Mariners blogger, I’ve associated the Northwest with “Moneyball” just as much as I do the Oakland A’s.
The term “Moneyball” can mean different things to different people*, so the definition I’m using here is the concept that teams should act like robots and find the best values per dollar, not merely the best players. Because as was the impetus for A’s general manager Billy Beane at the time, not every team can get the best players.
*Please ignore if this is not the technically accurate definition, as I’m only telling you what I associate it with, not the writer of the book or other people.
In baseball, most teams cannot afford great players.
In football, good teams will not draft high enough to pick many of the best players, such as Jayden Daniels, Aidan Hutchinson, Myles Garrett, Justin Herbert, and so on.
When one of those players does become available, like Garrett, his value-per-dollar has never been worse than it is right now.
The Browns wasted Garrett’s “cheap” years, and now going into his age-30 season Garrett will cost his next team the largest contract in defensive player history (probably) plus draft picks.
My version of the NFL’s Moneyball would not mean that a team must avoid trading for Garrett — look at the value that Trent Williams has brought to the 49ers since being traded to San Francisco when he was 32 — but instead focuses on the teams that do not get Garrett and the few teams that could actually afford him:
“How do you maximize the value of every dollar spent on your roster?”
What I have learned is that although Seahawks fans are more analytical than the average, no fanbase can entirely invest their emotions into a team without becoming emotional about certain players.
Extending DK Metcalf to a 3rd contract would be the worst move Seahawks could make this offseason
If you simply look at DK Metcalf like you would look at numbers on a page, and nothing else, there’s a 0% chance you would endorse signing him to a third contract:
Will turn 29 in 2026 (first year of a new contract)
Will expect a raise from previous contract ($24m/year)
Plays a position with the most good prospects in the draft every year
Plays a position with a deep free agent and trade market
27th in rec yards per game (63.4) over the past 4 years
57th in yards per target (8.3) over the past 4 years
First in WR penalties, First in WR fumbles in past 4 years
The history of WR 3rd contracts is TERRIFYING!
Remove everything about Metcalf that you see purely as a fan, a guy who is inordinately big/fast/strong, a successful second round pick, and that he’s got a certain style that would fit right into a TV show or a podcast for many years to come…and what you’re left with is a receiver whose resume isn’t massively different than Deebo Samuel’s.
As you know by now, Deebo was just traded for a fifth round pick.
It’s not that DK isn’t a better receiver or more attractive on the market than Deebo, because he is, but if there wasn’t a single NFL team that would go higher than a fifth for Samuel, where does that leave Metcalf? Maybe a low second or a conditional third?
Although Samuel is two years older than Metcalf, less productive as a receiver, and has some legitimate durability concerns, his trade didn’t come with demand for a new contract: Washington owes Deebo $17 million for one year and then they’re free.
If the Seahawks trade Metcalf, it is presumably with the expectation of getting paid one more time because as I wrote last week, players are extremely lucky if they even get two veteran contracts ever.
IF TEAMS PLAYED MONEYBALL, WIDE RECEIVERS MIGHT NOT *EVER* GET A THIRD CONTRACT!
There hasn’t been a single credible rumor about DK Metcalf being on the trade block yet, but we should assume that talks are possible for a few reasons:
He’s entering a contract year
There’s depth in general, but a lack of available X receivers
Seattle could be comfortable with JSN and other receiving options
The Seahawks will have to create cap space somehow
Schneider says he always considers every option
While the probability of getting a first round pick for Metcalf is low (the streak gets longer everyday: No player has been traded for a first since 2022), and the possibility of a second round pick is tenuous, trading Metcalf before his third contract would be the most financially prudent and analytically responsible thing the Seahawks could do in this situation.
This rundown of recent third contracts for wide receivers — STAR/AKA THE BEST IN THE WORLD — should be able to make even the most emotionally-invested DK Metcalf fans in the world realize that his most valuable playing days are in the past and an extension would only be something you’d do for a family member or a best friend, not a football player who needs to fit under the salary cap.
I already assumed receiver third contracts were bad. After doing the research for this article, I had no idea it was THIS bad.
Of 11 recent third contracts for SUPERSTAR receivers I found, more than half were traded/released before their SECOND season on the extension (some never played on the extension) and not a single deal was a good value…except one very exceptional team-friendly player.
Check out these recent contracts and then tell me if paying Metcalf the top of the market as he turns 29 is still a good idea or not: