OK then....ran 6 mock drafts through the first three rounds, letting the software make the picks where possible: PFN (who I think are the most realistic), PFF, Mock Draft, Draft Buzz, NFL.com, Sportskeeda. They were all set to BPA where possible bc that's what Schneider's been doing in recent years.
Ended up throwing out Sportskeeda bc of some too-unusual stuff (Ashton Jeanty #45 on their Big Board and drafted #79, seriously??) but have some observations from the other 5. Of course all of this is with the massive caveats many of you are pointing out about mock drafts.
- for whatever reason #18 was getting an unusual number of trade offers compared to the other picks around #18. I'm wondering if it's because teams are worried Seattle may pick one of the QB's still on the board (not many were getting picked). I didn't accept any, but there were some tempting ones bc they were including 2026 R1's which I'd prob take if I were Schneider, it's a better draft to have two R1 picks (like 2023). Teams may be making a run at QB's and leaving some potential All-Pro position players later in the round.
- for those who want Seattle to go for a QB that high, consistently Quinn Ewers, Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe are available in R2 and R3. But when you see the position players also available who (IMHO) have much higher floors and are positions we need, it was really tough to imagine going for the flyer on the QB and leaving them for the Rams or whoever.
- Here were our 1st three rounds per each of these sites:
PFN: Cameron Williams OT; Tez Johnson WR; Jaxson Dart QB
PFF: Shemar Stewart ED; Omarr Norman-Lott DL; Nick Emmanwori S
Mock Draft: Kenneth Grant DL; JT Tuimoloau ED; Denzel Burke CB
NFL.com: Mykel Williams ED; Xavier Restrepo WR; Nick Emmanwori S
- The names that were consistently available around our picks, meaning in 3 or more of these, were Cameron Williams OT which I think would be awesome if it were to play out. But the top TE's were also hanging around at #18 such as Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, would make releasing Noah Fant invisible. Also Xavier Restrepo WR who is sort of the Devon Witherspoon of WR's in this draft, but prob the kind of guy Dan Campbell would take in R1; JT Tuimoloau also consistently available around #50; Jaxson Dart QB too; and a BUNCH of safeties but predominately Nick Emmanwori who at face value is the second coming of Kam Chancellor -- "box safety, better against the run than the pass, hips too stiff, but a monster hitter". Kam lasted until R5, this guy won't but if we could get him in R3 I'd be ecstatic, am still of the opinion that Kam was the heart of that defense bc of the control of the middle of the field. Julian Love isn't Earl Thomas but the two would be very complementary, would LOVE to have another Kambam back there!
- All in all, if it were up to me and based on these mocks, and no one dangled a 2026 R1 pick for a trade-down, I'd be taking Cameron Williams to play LG; Xavier Restrepo to replace No-E; and I'd roll the dice on Nick Emmanwori at strong safety and release Rayshawn Jenkins. But there will also be other good options at TE, LB and WR (and QB, Jalen Milroe anyone?) if others would go in that direction.
Coming late to the conversation because I had actually to show up for work. Full disclosure: I listen to mock draft podcasts as a way to go to sleep. I think it might be a reminder of how even that comparatively simple logic puzzle can't be solved, so why worry about the rest?
A hunch, built out of that lullabye: mock draft experts are pretty good with the teams they follow, and tolerably good with the conferences in which those teams play. After that...
Clearly without an OC or a picture of how free agency will play out it's silly to try to mock the Hawks.
I've been trying a (slightly) different way of thinking about it, though at heart I'm solidly BPA. What I've gleaned argues this class is deep at TE, at RB, at IOL, and possibly at IDL. So if I had my druthers, I'd want to pick WR/TE -- somebody to catch the ball -- and IOL between rounds 1 & 2. Rounds 2-3 I wrote down IOL/DL and LB/Safety. Day 3 (6 picks) I wrote down RB (by which I kind of mean kick returner), QB, IOL, CB.
I'm going to keep playing with this list until draft day, and will be curious if any of y'all have strong thoughts either way.
At the end of the day I want some Joes (to borrow from Slow Horses): guys who can go do jobs for us. BPA to me is only partly about traits. Mostly it's about play skills which translate to the NFL.
Schneider’s trading down out of the first round is generally a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. He gets applauded for his skill at amassing “draft capital,” then typically fritters it away. Who would you rather have: T J Watt* or Malik McDowell, Lano Hill, Tedric Thompson, and Chris Carter. I hope that he stays at 18.
Schneider also passed on Cam Robinson, Ryan Ramczyk, and Buda Baker.
The job of predicting what the Seahawks will do is even harder than previous years given it’s only the 2nd year JS & MM; not to mention whoever the OC will be. They haven’t been doing it long enough together to give an outsider a predictability. I wish you luck SJ.
We got a long way to go before the draft. We could have a very different looking squad by then, which will directly impact our plans. I just want to start breaking down the prospects and getting into it. This could be interesting watching how COVID and the transfer portal effect scouting and player development. Might be some hidden gems out there.
Good to have the dose of reality reminder. I will read SJJ for insights into what the Seahawks may do, but otherwise I have no interest in reading about the draft and certainly not mocks. If Hawks were top 5, maybe top 8 picking, I'd have a little interest, but as SJJ notes, very unlikely to have any accuracy about the specific player so late in the first round. Later rounds mocks always have made me laugh due to absurdity of making picks with so many potential moving parts. Accuracy in picks after the first few picks in first round can be right, using the blind squirrel principle, it'll find a nut every so often...
I read more close drafts purely for entertainment. But when I say “mock” draft that’s usually what I do to it after reading it.
Most who create mock drafts have no idea of Hawk draft history and tendencies, nor even REAL needs.
The BEST rationale I’ve ever read was SSJ saying he thought the Seahawks would draft Devon Witherspoon because he was the most Seahawky player Pete Carroll could possibly pick. While that sounds like an off the cuff statement, it was really kind of profound and dead spot on.
I thought for sure that Anthony Richardson would go much lower than 4. I was equally surprised by Trey Lance. Josh Allen's transformation really threw a wrench in the logic of scouting valuations, I guess.
What's alot of fun is to use the mock draft software that's out there, to see who the consensus picks are ahead of #18. If you run them enough times you get some ideas at least about who is likely to be in play -- although Byron Murphy for example wasn't typically available at #16. Would be cool to get your view on that, who are the 5 most likely BPA's at #18.
I just want BPA, regardless of position. If they are good, let's get them. Now if there's two good prospects and all things being equal...then sure take the one with the best positional fit...but good lord trying to reach to fill does not generally work well. GO HAWKS!!
I recall JS's comments last year that he won't draft for need early in the draft. All the more reason to ignore guard and center mocks unless there is truly a best-player-available reason to consider someone. At #18, we'd have to be looking at a uniquely good IOL prospect, I would think.
Until we have an OC don't bother Mocking - that position will carry a ton of weight into the Draft discussion in-house with JS and MM. It could tilt the board in favour of a Guard, or a trade. It could poor cold water on drafting Offence highly in favour of a different strategy, moving the pick back towards Defence.
In this time of the year it's better to look broadly at the draft prospects. Learn about a wide range of players and a wide range of positions across a range of draft ranges. Clue yourself up so you avoid getting yanked into group-think despair on Draft night. And most importantly, ignore the mainstream media who's job is to get clicks, not provide accuracy.
We're lucky to have SSJ who's built on accuracy (or at least integrity and providing realy processed thoughts)!
I know the mock draft thing is kind of silly, but I'm totally into it. I must have run 1000 simulations last year. Not to try to guess right, but to get a sense on the likely range of options when we're on the board. It's fun.
If we drop Fant for cap reasons, we're going to have a TE hole to fill, and there's two that will likely go in the first. Warren from Penn State, but he's a monster and will not be there (probably) at 18. Loveland from Michigan is the other, and he might be.
The new OC will likely have a shopping list for JS and MM, depending what he wants to run. JS will, I hope, go o-line in round 1 if the right guy is there, but he's said a million times, the misses he's had are when he's reached for need. But he won't go guard just because we need a guard, and I wouldn't want him to, if there are much higher rated positions.
From a need perspective (which, I know, is how mock drafters predict rather than how the Seahawks actually pick), might a WR be in the offing? If Tyler is gone and DK is maybe gone or on short time, we need a couple to restock here. I have no idea how the draft looks for WRs, but I seem to recall a SSJ piece or two last year about WR being another position that justifies higher picks (Xavier Worthy got some SSJ attention).
Also, reading this piece (good start to the NFL hot stove season), it unfortunately brings Jared Verse to mind . . . .
Without commenting on the actual prospects (because I don't know them), WR & CB would be the other logical positional value choices to pick at 18; in addition to QB, OT, and edge as mentioned by Kenneth.
I’ve seen a couple mocks with a CB. Yes I can see that or an Edge. Seen Georgia Walker late top 10 to us at 18. We’ve got a defensive coach and we’re likely seeing Ucheena and Jones gone.
I have changed my opinion on first round WRs. Unless that's clearly just the only route to go, no pun intended, I haven't seen where any receiver other than Justin Jefferson has made a significant dent on a team's success relative to others who were drafted later, and not even JJ has sniffed a conference championship game. Not taking anything from Ja'Marr Chase, who is awesome, but the Bengals should have drafted Penei Sewell.
It's hard to argue that point when we look at the Cardinals, Giants and Bears records this last season. This may be a good reason to only pick QBs, pass rushers, and OTs in the top ten. By the time we get to the mid to late first round, though, I think we're getting good value at WR and DB, relative to other positions.
John in the past used to be big on rounds 3-6 as he stated it “ gave you more bites at the apple “ somewhere things changed. The team would develop players mostly DBs and trade them
They lost a lot when they lost Mike Tannenbaum the cap / advisor guy and Todd Leiweke.
I believe they need to develop players and stock up some picks. No more trading for fringe players.
Hard disagree! Interior Line film study is awesome! You don't get flashy highlight diving catches, or flips, or game winning celebrations. But you get the true essence of football, right in the heart of where games are won and lost more than anywhere else. (Granted, i full accept i might be the weird on here :p)
My main tip - find highlights of RB's & QB's but don't watch them, watch the Line in front of them. Then when you do inevitably get a bit bored, you're already in the right place for some entertainment, and can switch back to Lineman watching after a couple of plays.
The "what to watch for" is just different. It isn't the ball moving from place to place, like we all have done from an early age. It is more like a specific type of MMA-meets-Sumo type of upright wrestling and positioning that is won by the player who makes the other player end up in the place they want them to. It isn't even as cut-and-dried as getting past the opponent. The OL can use the DL's movement against him if he is going to the spot the OL wants him to go, or many other subtle approached that are not as obvious as "push the opponent backwards out of the play". It really is a chess match within a chess match. I dig it!
I am intrigued by how many times Booker took down the person he’s blocking. I like that degree of dominance and maybe a bit of nastiness, a la Steve Hutchinson.
OK then....ran 6 mock drafts through the first three rounds, letting the software make the picks where possible: PFN (who I think are the most realistic), PFF, Mock Draft, Draft Buzz, NFL.com, Sportskeeda. They were all set to BPA where possible bc that's what Schneider's been doing in recent years.
Ended up throwing out Sportskeeda bc of some too-unusual stuff (Ashton Jeanty #45 on their Big Board and drafted #79, seriously??) but have some observations from the other 5. Of course all of this is with the massive caveats many of you are pointing out about mock drafts.
- for whatever reason #18 was getting an unusual number of trade offers compared to the other picks around #18. I'm wondering if it's because teams are worried Seattle may pick one of the QB's still on the board (not many were getting picked). I didn't accept any, but there were some tempting ones bc they were including 2026 R1's which I'd prob take if I were Schneider, it's a better draft to have two R1 picks (like 2023). Teams may be making a run at QB's and leaving some potential All-Pro position players later in the round.
- for those who want Seattle to go for a QB that high, consistently Quinn Ewers, Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe are available in R2 and R3. But when you see the position players also available who (IMHO) have much higher floors and are positions we need, it was really tough to imagine going for the flyer on the QB and leaving them for the Rams or whoever.
- Here were our 1st three rounds per each of these sites:
PFN: Cameron Williams OT; Tez Johnson WR; Jaxson Dart QB
PFF: Shemar Stewart ED; Omarr Norman-Lott DL; Nick Emmanwori S
Mock Draft: Kenneth Grant DL; JT Tuimoloau ED; Denzel Burke CB
Draft Buzz: Ashton Jeanty RB; Bradyn Swinson ED; Xavier Watts S
NFL.com: Mykel Williams ED; Xavier Restrepo WR; Nick Emmanwori S
- The names that were consistently available around our picks, meaning in 3 or more of these, were Cameron Williams OT which I think would be awesome if it were to play out. But the top TE's were also hanging around at #18 such as Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, would make releasing Noah Fant invisible. Also Xavier Restrepo WR who is sort of the Devon Witherspoon of WR's in this draft, but prob the kind of guy Dan Campbell would take in R1; JT Tuimoloau also consistently available around #50; Jaxson Dart QB too; and a BUNCH of safeties but predominately Nick Emmanwori who at face value is the second coming of Kam Chancellor -- "box safety, better against the run than the pass, hips too stiff, but a monster hitter". Kam lasted until R5, this guy won't but if we could get him in R3 I'd be ecstatic, am still of the opinion that Kam was the heart of that defense bc of the control of the middle of the field. Julian Love isn't Earl Thomas but the two would be very complementary, would LOVE to have another Kambam back there!
- All in all, if it were up to me and based on these mocks, and no one dangled a 2026 R1 pick for a trade-down, I'd be taking Cameron Williams to play LG; Xavier Restrepo to replace No-E; and I'd roll the dice on Nick Emmanwori at strong safety and release Rayshawn Jenkins. But there will also be other good options at TE, LB and WR (and QB, Jalen Milroe anyone?) if others would go in that direction.
Coming late to the conversation because I had actually to show up for work. Full disclosure: I listen to mock draft podcasts as a way to go to sleep. I think it might be a reminder of how even that comparatively simple logic puzzle can't be solved, so why worry about the rest?
A hunch, built out of that lullabye: mock draft experts are pretty good with the teams they follow, and tolerably good with the conferences in which those teams play. After that...
Clearly without an OC or a picture of how free agency will play out it's silly to try to mock the Hawks.
I've been trying a (slightly) different way of thinking about it, though at heart I'm solidly BPA. What I've gleaned argues this class is deep at TE, at RB, at IOL, and possibly at IDL. So if I had my druthers, I'd want to pick WR/TE -- somebody to catch the ball -- and IOL between rounds 1 & 2. Rounds 2-3 I wrote down IOL/DL and LB/Safety. Day 3 (6 picks) I wrote down RB (by which I kind of mean kick returner), QB, IOL, CB.
I'm going to keep playing with this list until draft day, and will be curious if any of y'all have strong thoughts either way.
At the end of the day I want some Joes (to borrow from Slow Horses): guys who can go do jobs for us. BPA to me is only partly about traits. Mostly it's about play skills which translate to the NFL.
As always, I know absolutely nothing.
Schneider’s trading down out of the first round is generally a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. He gets applauded for his skill at amassing “draft capital,” then typically fritters it away. Who would you rather have: T J Watt* or Malik McDowell, Lano Hill, Tedric Thompson, and Chris Carter. I hope that he stays at 18.
Schneider also passed on Cam Robinson, Ryan Ramczyk, and Buda Baker.
...and Nick Chubb - that should've gotten JS fired IMO.
The job of predicting what the Seahawks will do is even harder than previous years given it’s only the 2nd year JS & MM; not to mention whoever the OC will be. They haven’t been doing it long enough together to give an outsider a predictability. I wish you luck SJ.
We got a long way to go before the draft. We could have a very different looking squad by then, which will directly impact our plans. I just want to start breaking down the prospects and getting into it. This could be interesting watching how COVID and the transfer portal effect scouting and player development. Might be some hidden gems out there.
Allen was down graded because he played at Wyoming. That's all you need to know about the Talking Heads.
Not wanting to make that mistake again, everyone overrated Carson Wentz.
Good to have the dose of reality reminder. I will read SJJ for insights into what the Seahawks may do, but otherwise I have no interest in reading about the draft and certainly not mocks. If Hawks were top 5, maybe top 8 picking, I'd have a little interest, but as SJJ notes, very unlikely to have any accuracy about the specific player so late in the first round. Later rounds mocks always have made me laugh due to absurdity of making picks with so many potential moving parts. Accuracy in picks after the first few picks in first round can be right, using the blind squirrel principle, it'll find a nut every so often...
I read more close drafts purely for entertainment. But when I say “mock” draft that’s usually what I do to it after reading it.
Most who create mock drafts have no idea of Hawk draft history and tendencies, nor even REAL needs.
The BEST rationale I’ve ever read was SSJ saying he thought the Seahawks would draft Devon Witherspoon because he was the most Seahawky player Pete Carroll could possibly pick. While that sounds like an off the cuff statement, it was really kind of profound and dead spot on.
Thank the football gods they didn't draft Anthony Richardson. He's another college RB playing QB. A real scatter arm with horrible mechanics.
Here's a real crazy prediction:
Geno and pick 18 for a top 10 pick.
Only if there's someone in the top-10 they really want. I'm not sure there is, but am open to suggestions.
I thought for sure that Anthony Richardson would go much lower than 4. I was equally surprised by Trey Lance. Josh Allen's transformation really threw a wrench in the logic of scouting valuations, I guess.
Randy Mueller thinks that Irsay forced Richardson on a coaching and front office staff that did not want him.
What's alot of fun is to use the mock draft software that's out there, to see who the consensus picks are ahead of #18. If you run them enough times you get some ideas at least about who is likely to be in play -- although Byron Murphy for example wasn't typically available at #16. Would be cool to get your view on that, who are the 5 most likely BPA's at #18.
I just want BPA, regardless of position. If they are good, let's get them. Now if there's two good prospects and all things being equal...then sure take the one with the best positional fit...but good lord trying to reach to fill does not generally work well. GO HAWKS!!
I recall JS's comments last year that he won't draft for need early in the draft. All the more reason to ignore guard and center mocks unless there is truly a best-player-available reason to consider someone. At #18, we'd have to be looking at a uniquely good IOL prospect, I would think.
Until we have an OC don't bother Mocking - that position will carry a ton of weight into the Draft discussion in-house with JS and MM. It could tilt the board in favour of a Guard, or a trade. It could poor cold water on drafting Offence highly in favour of a different strategy, moving the pick back towards Defence.
In this time of the year it's better to look broadly at the draft prospects. Learn about a wide range of players and a wide range of positions across a range of draft ranges. Clue yourself up so you avoid getting yanked into group-think despair on Draft night. And most importantly, ignore the mainstream media who's job is to get clicks, not provide accuracy.
We're lucky to have SSJ who's built on accuracy (or at least integrity and providing realy processed thoughts)!
I know the mock draft thing is kind of silly, but I'm totally into it. I must have run 1000 simulations last year. Not to try to guess right, but to get a sense on the likely range of options when we're on the board. It's fun.
If we drop Fant for cap reasons, we're going to have a TE hole to fill, and there's two that will likely go in the first. Warren from Penn State, but he's a monster and will not be there (probably) at 18. Loveland from Michigan is the other, and he might be.
The new OC will likely have a shopping list for JS and MM, depending what he wants to run. JS will, I hope, go o-line in round 1 if the right guy is there, but he's said a million times, the misses he's had are when he's reached for need. But he won't go guard just because we need a guard, and I wouldn't want him to, if there are much higher rated positions.
From a need perspective (which, I know, is how mock drafters predict rather than how the Seahawks actually pick), might a WR be in the offing? If Tyler is gone and DK is maybe gone or on short time, we need a couple to restock here. I have no idea how the draft looks for WRs, but I seem to recall a SSJ piece or two last year about WR being another position that justifies higher picks (Xavier Worthy got some SSJ attention).
Also, reading this piece (good start to the NFL hot stove season), it unfortunately brings Jared Verse to mind . . . .
Without commenting on the actual prospects (because I don't know them), WR & CB would be the other logical positional value choices to pick at 18; in addition to QB, OT, and edge as mentioned by Kenneth.
I’ve seen a couple mocks with a CB. Yes I can see that or an Edge. Seen Georgia Walker late top 10 to us at 18. We’ve got a defensive coach and we’re likely seeing Ucheena and Jones gone.
I have changed my opinion on first round WRs. Unless that's clearly just the only route to go, no pun intended, I haven't seen where any receiver other than Justin Jefferson has made a significant dent on a team's success relative to others who were drafted later, and not even JJ has sniffed a conference championship game. Not taking anything from Ja'Marr Chase, who is awesome, but the Bengals should have drafted Penei Sewell.
It's hard to argue that point when we look at the Cardinals, Giants and Bears records this last season. This may be a good reason to only pick QBs, pass rushers, and OTs in the top ten. By the time we get to the mid to late first round, though, I think we're getting good value at WR and DB, relative to other positions.
John in the past used to be big on rounds 3-6 as he stated it “ gave you more bites at the apple “ somewhere things changed. The team would develop players mostly DBs and trade them
They lost a lot when they lost Mike Tannenbaum the cap / advisor guy and Todd Leiweke.
I believe they need to develop players and stock up some picks. No more trading for fringe players.
Tyler Booker might be a great draft prospect but damn watching guard highlights on film is boring.
Hard disagree! Interior Line film study is awesome! You don't get flashy highlight diving catches, or flips, or game winning celebrations. But you get the true essence of football, right in the heart of where games are won and lost more than anywhere else. (Granted, i full accept i might be the weird on here :p)
My main tip - find highlights of RB's & QB's but don't watch them, watch the Line in front of them. Then when you do inevitably get a bit bored, you're already in the right place for some entertainment, and can switch back to Lineman watching after a couple of plays.
The "what to watch for" is just different. It isn't the ball moving from place to place, like we all have done from an early age. It is more like a specific type of MMA-meets-Sumo type of upright wrestling and positioning that is won by the player who makes the other player end up in the place they want them to. It isn't even as cut-and-dried as getting past the opponent. The OL can use the DL's movement against him if he is going to the spot the OL wants him to go, or many other subtle approached that are not as obvious as "push the opponent backwards out of the play". It really is a chess match within a chess match. I dig it!
I am intrigued by how many times Booker took down the person he’s blocking. I like that degree of dominance and maybe a bit of nastiness, a la Steve Hutchinson.