Really surprised not to see the Ravens in the 4th down mix, as with their QB, I would have assumed a high number of attempts and high percentage converted. Interesting.
I think if a coach has confidence in his o-line and QB, they get a lot more confidence in 4 and 1 or 2 yards. Is Milroe part of our 4th down package this year? Only if they have confidence in him. They could do read-option with him. He's strong, and should be good at sneaks or a version of the tush-push, but not sure we have the o-line power to knock people back.
As SSJ mentions in the article, teams frequently winning by a lot or losing by a lot will skew the number of attempts greatly. Teams with better starting average field position will also likely have more attempts, as they more frequently are in a lower risk part of the field to go for it.
I'm far most focused on managing the down and distance on 3rd down, and converting a higher percentage of them as a result. If our o-line over-performs expectation, and our defence is lights out, then I could also see more 4th down attempts. If Mike has confidence his defence will hold up if they give up the ball on the opposing teams 40 yard line or so, then he'll roll the dice more often. He has Milroe now as well, so does that factor into the calculus? We'll see.
All of these statistics are essentially meaningless because they're a collection of past events that don't in any way predict the future. If the 'Hawks do better on first and second down, third downs won't be such a problem, and fourth down statistics would be crazy different.
I don't know how long Philidelipha's magic can last, but right now, they have the definitive answer. They can gain 2-3 yards any time they want, so they only have to gain about eight yards on the first three plays to keep a drive alive. I'm hoping our new coaches and a new offensive system will make a difference on 1st and 2nd downs, then 3rd and 4th downs will take care of themselves and we won't have to read about this sort of thing next year.
I saw somewhere that in mid November, our average yards to go on 3rd down was 8.9, a near 40 year high. Not sure where we finished, as I could not find final numbers anywhere.
But I do remember watching last season and thinking we always seemed to be in 3rd and long, expecially after all the sacks or passing plays unconverted on 1st and 2nd. I feel like just getting to 3rd and short was a big deal.
If Kubiaks offense can get us closer to short distance 3rd downs, I would be a lot happier.
From what I can see 8.9 yards to gain on 3rd down is where we ended up. So your number is correct Tim. I agree the secret sauce to 3rd down percentages is to stay on schedule. And if we gain positive yards on 1st and 2nd more often this year, then 3rd and 5 or less should be much more manageable.
I like to think our team can metaphorically chew gum and walk at the same time.
Really surprised not to see the Ravens in the 4th down mix, as with their QB, I would have assumed a high number of attempts and high percentage converted. Interesting.
I think if a coach has confidence in his o-line and QB, they get a lot more confidence in 4 and 1 or 2 yards. Is Milroe part of our 4th down package this year? Only if they have confidence in him. They could do read-option with him. He's strong, and should be good at sneaks or a version of the tush-push, but not sure we have the o-line power to knock people back.
As SSJ mentions in the article, teams frequently winning by a lot or losing by a lot will skew the number of attempts greatly. Teams with better starting average field position will also likely have more attempts, as they more frequently are in a lower risk part of the field to go for it.
I'm far most focused on managing the down and distance on 3rd down, and converting a higher percentage of them as a result. If our o-line over-performs expectation, and our defence is lights out, then I could also see more 4th down attempts. If Mike has confidence his defence will hold up if they give up the ball on the opposing teams 40 yard line or so, then he'll roll the dice more often. He has Milroe now as well, so does that factor into the calculus? We'll see.
All of these statistics are essentially meaningless because they're a collection of past events that don't in any way predict the future. If the 'Hawks do better on first and second down, third downs won't be such a problem, and fourth down statistics would be crazy different.
I don't know how long Philidelipha's magic can last, but right now, they have the definitive answer. They can gain 2-3 yards any time they want, so they only have to gain about eight yards on the first three plays to keep a drive alive. I'm hoping our new coaches and a new offensive system will make a difference on 1st and 2nd downs, then 3rd and 4th downs will take care of themselves and we won't have to read about this sort of thing next year.
I saw somewhere that in mid November, our average yards to go on 3rd down was 8.9, a near 40 year high. Not sure where we finished, as I could not find final numbers anywhere.
But I do remember watching last season and thinking we always seemed to be in 3rd and long, expecially after all the sacks or passing plays unconverted on 1st and 2nd. I feel like just getting to 3rd and short was a big deal.
If Kubiaks offense can get us closer to short distance 3rd downs, I would be a lot happier.
From what I can see 8.9 yards to gain on 3rd down is where we ended up. So your number is correct Tim. I agree the secret sauce to 3rd down percentages is to stay on schedule. And if we gain positive yards on 1st and 2nd more often this year, then 3rd and 5 or less should be much more manageable.
🤞to that last sentence.