I still think if Seattle had offered 60 million for 3 years after the 4th game he would have signed . Seattle NEVER does that yet I believe they knew what they had so why not ???
Won’t this come down to whether the team is prepared to franchise Geno? If yes, the parameters of a contract fall into place quickly. If no, Geno hits the open market and is probably playing elsewhere next year.
A big part of it in my view is how much of Geno's success is due to Pete Carroll and his staff, and how much Carroll and Smith (and other franchises) believe it's due to Carroll and his staff.
I would never put Geno down for leaving for more money. Even if he thinks he'll be a shadow of his Seattle self elsewhere, a football player has to make enough to cover expenses for the rest of his life and he pays a huge portion of his salary in tax (because we tax income way higher than passive investment in this country -- tax law is written by and for the truly rich).
Personally, I think it would be a mistake to pay Geno more than $20M per year or provide a contract guaranteed for more than a year or two. If he walks, we can develop someone else.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. Those who use the franchise tag cost of $32M as a basis are wrong. As someone above said, it's what the market will bear. Geno and his agent can say they want to start at the tag cost, but when the Seahawks decline and other teams are only offering $10M-$15M per year, then $20M per year from Seattle looks darn good. Geno by all accounts is having a great year, but the lack of interest from all other teams for Geno as a starter leads me to believe that they will credit Pete and the system. I know it's a small sample size, but for most of the game against the Bucs, Geno looked pretty bad. I highly doubt anyone will tie up that much capital in a QB as their "future" based on one decent season and the Seahawks should not either. If he can get more than $15-20M in the market, I would let him walk. Pete needs a game manager not a superstar QB and I think the Hawks would be just fine with Lock and a rookie next year.
Kenneth, I don't know how to contact you privately so I'm posting this info as a comment. Here is an article on a Substack feature that I don't see you using but seems to be making authors more money.
We could enter the 2023 season without Geno for reasons including injury, salary demand, the market values him more than we can afford, Young falls into our lap, or Drew Lock has progressed enough to start and is willing to sign for relative peanuts. The downside to Geno is we only get one year of cheap labor/high production but the upside is we know what we're getting for likely less than top of market. If Geno continues his production and agrees to Brady-like contracts why would we change? If he demands top of market money it's bye-bye Geno.
Interestingly, Ryan was the "pro comp" of Geno Smith by some scouts.
There are two things here:
1. Pete wants to field a competitive, playoff caliber team every year. He did this in 2022, which most didn't believe was possible.
2. No one wants to live in the kind of purgatory that Green Bay is in the last 10+ years. It's still better than Texans hell, but you want to at least get to the Big Game. Our foes went there 3 times since the last time we were in.
(1) makes Pete want to keep Geno. (2) makes JS not want to commit a boatload of money to do so.
My prediction is: we either keep Geno on a team-friendly deal, or we wish him success and move forward.
I do think that keeping him for 20M or so is possible. He may be Matt Ryan (who should've won that Super Bowl), or he may be Goff (who didn't stand a chance), or he may be Garoppolo (who shot himself in the foot after a competent appearance).
If Geno continues playing as he has, there’s no way that he agrees to a 20M deal no matter how much is guaranteed. His career earnings are <15M. 2023 may well be Geno’s best chance at hitting it big, and no one should be surprised if he goes for it.
There are still 7 games to go in this season. If Geno can elevate and lead Seattle to 5 more victories this will be as hard a decision the Hawks have had to make in quite sometime. I do not see Seattle getting Bryce Harper, I am all in on Nathan Rourke and Grayson McCall. The latter two mean resigning Geno. I believe Joe told us the franchise tag is $31 million. I think signing him to a 3 year deal with two dumb years at the end is what would work for the team. How much could either New York football team use Geno for example. This is what is going to drive his contract. It is possible Drew Lock has learned the offense well enough, and has been coached out of some less than smart throws. Bring Drew back with either Rourke and McCall and it's still possible to pay for the prices we still need. Just don't let the Forty Niners get Geno as that would save us from them becoming dominant for a few years .
The 49'ers don't have too much more cap space than we do and I'm not sure they could afford Geno at a fair market price without dismantling their roster.
That is my exact point. The 49ers could afford Geno. Losing Geno would suck but of all 31 other teams the 49ers are the one we can't have him go to. He would be a perfect fit. He is mature not banged up and not looking to be a star. In the end Seattle has been very good at taking care of their own. I don't want to slap the tag on Geno, but use it as the bar. Three years with a good amount of garuntee that they could spread over five. I personally don't see anything fluky in the way Geno has played. With all of our draft picks next year we can put together a contender for 2023 and 2025 and that is how John and Pete will look at it. We are lucky we have owners who want to win the big prize. Also I don't know the 49ers cap situation but there always seems to be a way with cash over cap.
The 2023 QB franchise tag is likely to be $32M. If Geno finishes the season the way he has started it, he and his agent will regarded 2/40 as an insulting lowball offer.
Cold water. A big part of me (likely the same part that makes me incapable as an executive. or a fantasy owner.) wants to pay him for his patience. Almost as an apology for writing him off. But I don't think we're going to find a better option in the draft or in a F.A. In the examples today, I can't help but to think that Cousins is a win. It was a shock at the time, but down the line he's looking pretty dern good out there and I'm not sure he's overpaid.
I recently had to sell the house I grew up in, and the wisest answer I got to the basic question, "How am I going to decide how much it's worth?" was, "It's worth however much someone is willing to pay for it." Pretty obvious, but the bottom line was in testing the market. We'd love to extend him on a team-friendly contract, but we won't know what he's worth until the market decides. When will other teams contact his Agent? (or, much more selfishly, when will WE know when other teams have contacted his agent?). The key is going to be how much is someone ELSE willing to pay for him. If we don't want to find out, it's The Tag and, I think that would be pretty bad for team chemistry. If that happened, Geno would be so, so, pissed and I wouldn't blame him. I'm super curious about the interest from other teams.
As thoroughly as you covered that subject in this article, I cannot but think so many factors play into a contract negotiation, that comparisons can never be made with accuracy. Geno's case is pretty unique, and he is an individual with a mature mind and attitude. If Geno primarily wants money, then he can auction himself off to the highest bidder (after first serving as a franchise tagged player for one year at about 32 million) or he can negotiate a contract with the team that put him in the position to play well and win, thus giving him the greatest chance of overall success, but not necessarily the most money.
I believe he will take a two or three year contract for about 100 million. Knowing Seattle has Lockett, DK, K9, Cross and Lucas for at least three years probably. He knows the system, coach, and that it works. The grass may be greener somewhere else, but happiness is often where you find yourself right now.
And for the record, I don't pretend to know what Geno's 2023 contract situation will eventually settle into. Just a thought here today I had about Matt Ryan's situation.
Am I getting this right that you're saying the Hawks should not re-sign Geno to a market rate contract of $30+ million and should instead get a QB elsewhere for much cheaper? I'm not disagreeing with this, I just want to make sure I have it right.
I think we need to ask ourselves if Geno's play is a big contributor to why the Hawks are succeeding and will they struggle to replace that production with another QB. We also need to figure out if Geno is good enough to win a Super Bowl. If he is then maybe they pay the man, enjoy the benefits of more quality rookies on cheap contracts to be drafted next year and go for it. Personally I think with a good surrounding cast that Geno is capable so I imagine the Hawks/Geno relationship continues for another couple years. And may grab your boy Grayson next year so he can develop behind Geno.
No, that contract was signed four years ago, five years by 2023. A market rate contract compared to Matt Ryan's 2018 deal would be about $47-51 million per season. I've previously written a contract proposal for Geno that comes in at $30 million per year and said that sounds good to me, if he's still attractive by the end of the season.
I know I didn't draw a hard conclusion in the article, it was a little bit meander-y.
Let's give Geno a 3-year deal with good guarantees but not fully-guaranteed. If he falls apart in 1-2 years, we won't be crippled. If he stays at this level, no complaints!
I don't see any reason that Geno would have a swift decline. He's in good shape, hasn't taken a beating, and doesn't depend on his legs. It's really about salary, contract length, and guaranteed money.
I still think if Seattle had offered 60 million for 3 years after the 4th game he would have signed . Seattle NEVER does that yet I believe they knew what they had so why not ???
Won’t this come down to whether the team is prepared to franchise Geno? If yes, the parameters of a contract fall into place quickly. If no, Geno hits the open market and is probably playing elsewhere next year.
Geno, JS and PC all negotiate and agree with a new contract. We all agree that it’s the best deal for all. Everybody wins. Everybody’s happy.
A big part of it in my view is how much of Geno's success is due to Pete Carroll and his staff, and how much Carroll and Smith (and other franchises) believe it's due to Carroll and his staff.
I would never put Geno down for leaving for more money. Even if he thinks he'll be a shadow of his Seattle self elsewhere, a football player has to make enough to cover expenses for the rest of his life and he pays a huge portion of his salary in tax (because we tax income way higher than passive investment in this country -- tax law is written by and for the truly rich).
Personally, I think it would be a mistake to pay Geno more than $20M per year or provide a contract guaranteed for more than a year or two. If he walks, we can develop someone else.
I agree with this wholeheartedly. Those who use the franchise tag cost of $32M as a basis are wrong. As someone above said, it's what the market will bear. Geno and his agent can say they want to start at the tag cost, but when the Seahawks decline and other teams are only offering $10M-$15M per year, then $20M per year from Seattle looks darn good. Geno by all accounts is having a great year, but the lack of interest from all other teams for Geno as a starter leads me to believe that they will credit Pete and the system. I know it's a small sample size, but for most of the game against the Bucs, Geno looked pretty bad. I highly doubt anyone will tie up that much capital in a QB as their "future" based on one decent season and the Seahawks should not either. If he can get more than $15-20M in the market, I would let him walk. Pete needs a game manager not a superstar QB and I think the Hawks would be just fine with Lock and a rookie next year.
Kenneth, I don't know how to contact you privately so I'm posting this info as a comment. Here is an article on a Substack feature that I don't see you using but seems to be making authors more money.
https://simonowens.substack.com/p/substack-found-its-unfair-advantage?ref=refind
We could enter the 2023 season without Geno for reasons including injury, salary demand, the market values him more than we can afford, Young falls into our lap, or Drew Lock has progressed enough to start and is willing to sign for relative peanuts. The downside to Geno is we only get one year of cheap labor/high production but the upside is we know what we're getting for likely less than top of market. If Geno continues his production and agrees to Brady-like contracts why would we change? If he demands top of market money it's bye-bye Geno.
Interestingly, Ryan was the "pro comp" of Geno Smith by some scouts.
There are two things here:
1. Pete wants to field a competitive, playoff caliber team every year. He did this in 2022, which most didn't believe was possible.
2. No one wants to live in the kind of purgatory that Green Bay is in the last 10+ years. It's still better than Texans hell, but you want to at least get to the Big Game. Our foes went there 3 times since the last time we were in.
(1) makes Pete want to keep Geno. (2) makes JS not want to commit a boatload of money to do so.
My prediction is: we either keep Geno on a team-friendly deal, or we wish him success and move forward.
I do think that keeping him for 20M or so is possible. He may be Matt Ryan (who should've won that Super Bowl), or he may be Goff (who didn't stand a chance), or he may be Garoppolo (who shot himself in the foot after a competent appearance).
If Geno continues playing as he has, there’s no way that he agrees to a 20M deal no matter how much is guaranteed. His career earnings are <15M. 2023 may well be Geno’s best chance at hitting it big, and no one should be surprised if he goes for it.
“if something wants to be extraordinarily expensive, then it can’t just be good. It has to be extraordinarily great.”
You’d think GMs in the league would understand this point. But the history of teams over-paying good but not great QBs is stunning.
There are still 7 games to go in this season. If Geno can elevate and lead Seattle to 5 more victories this will be as hard a decision the Hawks have had to make in quite sometime. I do not see Seattle getting Bryce Harper, I am all in on Nathan Rourke and Grayson McCall. The latter two mean resigning Geno. I believe Joe told us the franchise tag is $31 million. I think signing him to a 3 year deal with two dumb years at the end is what would work for the team. How much could either New York football team use Geno for example. This is what is going to drive his contract. It is possible Drew Lock has learned the offense well enough, and has been coached out of some less than smart throws. Bring Drew back with either Rourke and McCall and it's still possible to pay for the prices we still need. Just don't let the Forty Niners get Geno as that would save us from them becoming dominant for a few years .
The 49'ers don't have too much more cap space than we do and I'm not sure they could afford Geno at a fair market price without dismantling their roster.
That is my exact point. The 49ers could afford Geno. Losing Geno would suck but of all 31 other teams the 49ers are the one we can't have him go to. He would be a perfect fit. He is mature not banged up and not looking to be a star. In the end Seattle has been very good at taking care of their own. I don't want to slap the tag on Geno, but use it as the bar. Three years with a good amount of garuntee that they could spread over five. I personally don't see anything fluky in the way Geno has played. With all of our draft picks next year we can put together a contender for 2023 and 2025 and that is how John and Pete will look at it. We are lucky we have owners who want to win the big prize. Also I don't know the 49ers cap situation but there always seems to be a way with cash over cap.
SeaHawks Race to the Super Bowl
9 teams with better record
5 teams with same record
18 teams with worst record
Broncos Race to the Draft:
23 teams with better record
6 teams with same record
3 teams with worst record
start negotiations at $20 million each for two years and see where it goes
would not pay over #30 million/year
he still is getting a good deal
his situation is ideal for him at this stage of his career
The 2023 QB franchise tag is likely to be $32M. If Geno finishes the season the way he has started it, he and his agent will regarded 2/40 as an insulting lowball offer.
Cold water. A big part of me (likely the same part that makes me incapable as an executive. or a fantasy owner.) wants to pay him for his patience. Almost as an apology for writing him off. But I don't think we're going to find a better option in the draft or in a F.A. In the examples today, I can't help but to think that Cousins is a win. It was a shock at the time, but down the line he's looking pretty dern good out there and I'm not sure he's overpaid.
I recently had to sell the house I grew up in, and the wisest answer I got to the basic question, "How am I going to decide how much it's worth?" was, "It's worth however much someone is willing to pay for it." Pretty obvious, but the bottom line was in testing the market. We'd love to extend him on a team-friendly contract, but we won't know what he's worth until the market decides. When will other teams contact his Agent? (or, much more selfishly, when will WE know when other teams have contacted his agent?). The key is going to be how much is someone ELSE willing to pay for him. If we don't want to find out, it's The Tag and, I think that would be pretty bad for team chemistry. If that happened, Geno would be so, so, pissed and I wouldn't blame him. I'm super curious about the interest from other teams.
I bought a Colby Parkinson jersey.
Unless Waldron gets a HC job. It would be smart to bring a player with him that can have immediate success in his system.
As thoroughly as you covered that subject in this article, I cannot but think so many factors play into a contract negotiation, that comparisons can never be made with accuracy. Geno's case is pretty unique, and he is an individual with a mature mind and attitude. If Geno primarily wants money, then he can auction himself off to the highest bidder (after first serving as a franchise tagged player for one year at about 32 million) or he can negotiate a contract with the team that put him in the position to play well and win, thus giving him the greatest chance of overall success, but not necessarily the most money.
I believe he will take a two or three year contract for about 100 million. Knowing Seattle has Lockett, DK, K9, Cross and Lucas for at least three years probably. He knows the system, coach, and that it works. The grass may be greener somewhere else, but happiness is often where you find yourself right now.
And for the record, I don't pretend to know what Geno's 2023 contract situation will eventually settle into. Just a thought here today I had about Matt Ryan's situation.
Yea, sorry. I'm not trying to put words in your mouth. I write too fast and sometimes I am not clear enough.
Am I getting this right that you're saying the Hawks should not re-sign Geno to a market rate contract of $30+ million and should instead get a QB elsewhere for much cheaper? I'm not disagreeing with this, I just want to make sure I have it right.
I think we need to ask ourselves if Geno's play is a big contributor to why the Hawks are succeeding and will they struggle to replace that production with another QB. We also need to figure out if Geno is good enough to win a Super Bowl. If he is then maybe they pay the man, enjoy the benefits of more quality rookies on cheap contracts to be drafted next year and go for it. Personally I think with a good surrounding cast that Geno is capable so I imagine the Hawks/Geno relationship continues for another couple years. And may grab your boy Grayson next year so he can develop behind Geno.
No, that contract was signed four years ago, five years by 2023. A market rate contract compared to Matt Ryan's 2018 deal would be about $47-51 million per season. I've previously written a contract proposal for Geno that comes in at $30 million per year and said that sounds good to me, if he's still attractive by the end of the season.
I know I didn't draw a hard conclusion in the article, it was a little bit meander-y.
If it were me a $30 million contract would be a slam dunk when you have the draft picks next year that the Hawks do.
Meander-y is fine... it allows me to take any road I feel like taking.
Let's give Geno a 3-year deal with good guarantees but not fully-guaranteed. If he falls apart in 1-2 years, we won't be crippled. If he stays at this level, no complaints!
I don't see any reason that Geno would have a swift decline. He's in good shape, hasn't taken a beating, and doesn't depend on his legs. It's really about salary, contract length, and guaranteed money.