Grey Zabel at center could be a costly upgrade
Won't you learn your 'Gray Be C's?
The Seahawks plan to start first round pick Grey Zabel at guard, but if he ends up moving to center it could actually cost Seattle an entire year of their contractual rights with him.
Zabel is most valuable as a tackle, which nobody thinks is probable
Next-most valuable as a guard, which is where the Seahawks will start him as a rookie and hope to keep him
But a move to center is possible, which would all but guarantee that the Seahawks can’t use the fifth-year option on him (if they want to)
We just saw this happen to Tyler Linderbaum, one of the top-three centers in the NFL and a player who Seattle fans were desperate to have in the 2022 draft, but also the rare first round GEM who also couldn’t get the fifth-year option.
When the Seahawks had the ninth overall pick and two early second rounders in 2022, I wrote that the number one thing Seattle could not do was draft Linderbaum in the first round despite the possibility that he would be the “Aaron Donald of offense”.
Well, after three seasons and two Pro Bowl nods, the Ravens declined to pick up Linderbaum’s option because there is no distinction between offensive line positions and it would be a costly mistake to pick it up. Yes, a MISTAKE to guarantee one of your best players another year because of his position:
Baltimore would have to pay $23.4 million for a center, which is $5 million+ more than top-paid center Creed Humphrey.
Linderbaum also recently said that he has not had extension talks with the Ravens.
This should change soon. We expect the Baltimore Ravens to extend Linderbaum to a contract that will set a new record for centers (a 4-year, $78 million deal would make sense as the next step up), but it still sucks for them that they used a first round pick on a player who they have to extend without the fifth-year buffer.
Compare that to the Seahawks situation with Charles Cross, in which Seattle will actually be SAVING millions of dollars in 2026 by giving him the fifth-year option. This is why positional value for first round picks is so important, it’s not just because “that player is a reach compared to day two picks”. The Ravens didn’t reach for Linderbaum, but they would have lost too much leverage in negotiations if they guaranteed him $23.4 million in 2026.
Going back to Zabel, the Seahawks stand to gain significantly more value from their 2025 first round pick if he sticks at guard than if he ends up moving further inside to center.
Yet, there is no guarantee that Zabel won’t inevitably be too much of an upgrade compared to Olu Oluwatimi and Jalen Sundell at center that Seattle won’t do it anyway.
‘Center might be his best spot’
The popular NFL Network personality Brian Baldinger posted this video on Twitter during the draft to highlight why Zabel is a great pick for the Seahawks…and best suited to be a center. I like transcribing videos for those of us (especially me) who learn better through reading than listening.
“He can play left tackle, right tackle. You watch him, you move the hip, move the body. He just mauls people. Run game, pass game. He’s got length. At the Senior Bowl he played center and both guard positions. He can play anywhere. But watch his core strength, how he wires guys up. It’s over. The feet just stop, he has that ability to do it.
I’ve been told he can play center AT A VERY HIGH LEVEL at the NFL. And he might be that guy. But watch him here: Right tackle, left tackle, he’s just mauling people. That’s like WWE stuff right there. Octagon stuff. Aim for the hip, you move the body, and watch how low he gets at 6’6. You hit the hip, you eliminate him. You take him out. He’s advanced. Watch this advanced chop technique. You can break an arm like that! He’s got it. What position do you want to play him at Seattle? He can play them all."
Let’s get one thing out of the way first:
If “He can play anywhere” is true, then he needs to play tackle by 2026. That’s the best option, and then the Seahawks can choose what to do with Cross and Abe Lucas after moving Zabel to tackle. I won’t say that Zabel can’t play tackle (I learned my lesson in 2012 when I consistently wrote that summer Russell Wilson would not be an NFL starter), but I have yet to hear any analyst say that he’s a tackle in anything other than “a pinch”.
The top-paid left guards are Landon Dickerson at $21 million per year and Quenton Nelson at $20 million per year.
It’s still not a very good number compared to what Zabel would make on the fifth-year option in 2029 (I know, I’m looking really far ahead right now but there is a reason why we can talk about his positional future today) but it is better than if he plays center.
And these numbers only matter if Zabel is an elite guard or an elite center. Even if he’s really, really good, that’s not going to lead to a fifth year on his rookie contract. Whereas we see fairly underwhelming 2022 picks at premium positions like Kayvon Thibodeaux, Ikem Ekwonu, and Jameson Williams get their fifth-year options picked up by their teams because it’s cost-effective, a home run/slam dunk pick like Linderbaum gets his declined because he’s a center.
The same goes for Zion Johnson, the 15th overall pick of the Chargers in 2022.
Johnson might be a better left guard than Thibodeaux is an edge defender, and the Chargers would love an extra year to figure out if he can become great (just as the Giants get with Thibodeaux and the Lions get with Williams), but L.A. couldn’t afford that risk at $17.5 million for a guard.
Johnson would have had to be one of the best guards in the NFL, and he’s not that. The Seahawks need Zabel to become one of the best guards in the NFL, otherwise he will probably move to center. If he moves to center, he will need to be elite to justify being the 18th overall pick. And if he is an elite center, he will actually be TOO EXPENSIVE to have his fifth-year option picked up and Seattle will need to extend him a year earlier than they would have preferred.
This is the reason that some people were in favor of the Seahawks drafting upgrades at guard and/or center, but against doing it in the first round.
Seaside Joe 2255
Interesting nuance I’ve never considered.
But if he can be blue chip at a particular position even center, and it’s obvious in training camp, I think that trumps the other stuff. Maybe you have to extend him after year three but the broader point is Seattle doesn’t have enough blue chip players. Hope it’s at guard or tackle but if his “blue chip” position is center, don’t you have to play him there and thank your lucky stars you have a blue chipper?
Darnold and Kenneth will thank you too 🤗
This positional value stuff infuriates me, in a way. I fully expected Creed Humphries (sp?). We drafed a shitty wr/scataback. I expected John Jinglehiemer or whatever his name was. We left him on the board and by all accounts he's not been great. But every draft I hope for a good/great center or guard on this O line and while Olu was considered great for college ball (Rimington award, yada yada), he's at best a project on a better team. But he STARTED for us! And fine, that's the way it goes. But we spent # 18 overall on this Busch Light kid, he just needs to hold down a spot and be really good at it. Not that I expect a rookie OL to come out of the gate as a Pro Bowler. But by gosh he had sure better be a guy who we either extend early or pick up the 5th year option for.
Full disclosure, I didn't love the pick mostly due to postiional value to begin with. But my hopes for this young man are to be a special player.