Has Cody Barton learned how to cover?
Seahawks-Titans 5 most important players: DeMarcus Lawrence isn't 'too old' and Uchenna Nwosu isn't 'too injured'
The only team to have the first overall pick in back to back years since the turn of the century is the Cleveland Browns. And they did it twice!
The Titans are seven games away from becoming the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to pick first overall in back to back years and you have to wonder if their own fans even want them to win this game. I probably wouldn’t.
The coaches won’t be back next year. Many of the players won’t be back. Maybe the one thing left to do for Tennessee to salvage their season is to get the number one pick and help Cam Ward, either by trading the pick (which seems most likely) or drafting someone who makes the team better.
Because the team the Seahawks are about to face on Sunday needs to get a lot better. So do Tennessee a favor and beat them.
QB Cam Ward, Titans
When I say that “Cam Ward worries me” I could just be throwing him a bone. How many number one picks have been burned with this much of a mess to clean up during their rookie season?
The two number one picks before him (Bryce Young, Caleb Williams) didn’t even go to teams that had the worst record the season before!
Although I think Ward’s rise to being the number one pick is slightly more indicative of the times we live in than his talent (it’s difficult to find good quarterback prospects these days), he’s someone who I first started mentioning in this newsletter four years ago when he was at Incarnate Word because I thought the arm talent was too legit to ignore.
There isn’t really much known here about Ward. Playing for Incarnate Word in 2021, Ward (6’2, 223 lbs) had 4,648 yards, 47 TDs and 10 INTs, making him one of the top transfers in the country and potentially the best among those who weren’t going somewhere because they had failed at their previous stop.
Some of you longtime subscribers may remember him on “The Underdog Tribe” when I started QB survivor. Three games into his career at Washington State, I highlighted Ward as a standout who could become a first round pick (and the fact that he’s a cousin to Quandre Diggs) long before he was on the NFL Draft radar.
So I believe in Cam Ward but I’m still surprised that he was the number one pick. Any team that would invest in Ward has to have a solid structure in place and that’s almost any franchise other than the Tennessee Titans.
I already wrote enough about how badly the Titans are failing Ward, but these numbers may surprise you:
Completion Percentage Over Expectation: -3.8%
So nothing is going to really look good here but I want to put a frame of reference on Ward so that you know that he may be doing better than some quarterbacks who we think are better. CPOE essentially just accounts for how accurate a QB is given the situation he has to play in, so drops/open receivers/strength of the defense.
Ward has a better CPOE than Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, and J.J. McCarthy.
Imagine if you have Caleb’s supporting cast and coaching but you’re less accurate than the QB of the Titans.
EPA on Deep Passes (20+ air yards): +10.9
Ward’s (Expected Points Added) on deep passes is ranked 12th in the NFL. That’s because Ward is a very accurate deep ball passer, including to the sidelines, so the Titans need to do a better job of giving him a second to throw the ball. They’re going to have a hard time doing that this week against the Seahawks.
Now compare this to Jared Goff (32nd in EPA on deep passes), one of the worst deep ball passers in the league. The ceiling for a guy like Ward is much higher than the ceiling for Goff. The worst deep ball passer is McCarthy. The Vikings still chose him over Sam Darnold, who is ranked 3rd in EPA on deep passes.
EPA on Wide targets (sideline throws): +6.6
Another indication that Ward is a good passer outside the numbers is that he ranks 25th in this category. I know that’s not very good but it’s actually better than:
Aaron Rodgers
CJ Stroud
Baker Mayfield
Bryce Young
Jaxson Dart
Michael Penix
So should the Seahawks “worry” about Ward? Well the more accurate thing to say is that the Seahawks shouldn’t be worried about the Titans because they’re the worst team in the NFL right now. But within that terrible team is a very intriguing quarterback who seems better than a few other guys recently drafted in the top-10.
By the way, the Browns had the number one pick in 2017-2018 (Myles Garrett, Baker Mayfield) and 1999-2000 (Tim Couch, Courtney Brown) and in both cases they made the playoffs within a few years but could not sustain or build on that success.
The Bengals had the number one pick in 1994-1995 (Dan Wilkinson, Ki-Jana Carter) and the Bucs had the top pick in 1976-1977 (LeeRoy Selmon, Ricky Bell) which was partly because they won a coin toss against the Seahawks, a franchise that has never had the number one pick.
OLB DeMarcus Lawrence, Seahawks
OLB Uchenna Nwosu, Seahawks
I’m going to double-dip two of my spots on edge rushers because why wouldn’t you when you’re facing the most-sacked quarterback of 2025? Ward has been sacked 41 times in 10 games, putting him on pace for 70 — that would be the third-most ever. (The most ever in a 17-game season.)
Many of the top pass rushers have padded their stats against the Titans:
Danielle Hunter has 3.5 sacks in 2 games
Maxx Crosby had 2 sacks in 1 game
Nik Bonitto had 9 pressures in 1 game
Byron Young had 2 sacks in 1 game
Will Anderson had 9 pressures in 2 games
Josh Sweat had 2 sacks in 1 game
And the Colts have been all over him, sacking Ward eight times in two games. For players like Lawrence and Nwosu, these are the best opportunities to make your money. Given the state of Seattle’s depth at the position, games like this could help determine if Lawrence and Nwosu are back in 2026.
I’ve taken some heat in the past for criticizing and questioning Boye Mafe and Derick Hall, which I understand because they’re second round picks who “oozed potential” and have had a lot of good moments. Every fan wants them to be good but now we’re at the nadir of their Seahawks careers, their worst seasons ever. It’s a concern when you’re being out played by an edge rusher who is almost 10 years older than you. (Lawrence 33, Hall 24)
The “pressures” are almost there: Mafe has 26 with an 11.7% pressure rate and Hall has 23 with a 16.2% pressure rate. Comparitively, Hall’s almost as good as Nwosu’s team-leading 16.9%. But Lawrence and Nwosu are entrusted to play more snaps and they have combined for 9.5 sacks.
Mafe and Hall combined for one sack. Literally. It was one play all season and they were both in on it.
On the best defensive line in the NFL, Mafe and Hall are contributors, not leaders. Will that change this week against the most-sacked team in the league? I’m all for it but I’m happy that the Seahawks don’t have to rely on it because they’ve been getting outstanding work from their veterans.
LB Cody Barton, Titans
The Seahawks traded Tennessee for a linebacker last year and ironically one of the most productive players on the Titans defense this season is a former Seahawks linebacker.
Barton is on his third different team since Seattle let him leave in 2023 free agency and it’s looking like he’s at least found a home for next year. The former Seahawks third round pick has 57 tackles (he’s averaged 121 per season since his last year in Seattle), three interceptions, a sack, and seven passes defensed.
He also had a pick-six against Justin Herbert.
On the flip side, linebackers are almost never well defined by their stats and this clip of him on fourth-and-1 (pointing to an area of the field that needs to be covered and then not covering it) reminds me why the Seahawks let him leave in the first place.
Interestingly, despite his reputation Barton has the lowest passer rating allowed (46.5) of any LB in the league with at least 30+ targets against, according to Next Gen Stats. He’s always been a playmaker who has lacked consistently good skills in coverage and being in position to be an elite run defender.
Has he improved in Tennessee or is he just getting a lot of heavy lifting done with those three interceptions? His reunion this week could be more important than Ernest’s because Ernest might not play.
RB Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks
Without being 100% sure that Kenneth Walker will start, this could be the best opportunity all season to list Charbonnet in the top-5.
The Titans have the fourth-worst run defense according to Next Gen Stats numbers like Rush Yards Over Expectation and EPA per Rush
Titans defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson coached defensive backs under Mike Macdonald in Baltimore two years ago. When Brian Callahan hired him to run Tennessee’s defense in 2024 he had one of the weirdest dichotomies in the league: 30th in points allowed but 2nd in yards allowed.
That’s because the Titans had the second most turnovers (now the Seahawks have the most) and it’s not like teams needed a bunch of yards to beat them. The defense was really bad and unfortunately for Wilson (who is almost certainly gone at the end of the year) it’s even worse now.
The Titans are almost equally bad against the pass (24th in NY/A allowed) and the run (24th in YPC allowed) and once again they’re 30th in points allowed. The Titans have given up the second most rushing touchdowns and that’s possibly where Charbonnet can thrive in this contest.
There is a good chance that Seattle is leading for most of the game, which would also increase the likelihood of an increased workload for Charbonnet. This might be the week for Macdonald to rest Walker when the time is right and keep his legs fresh for the stretch run.
Seaside Joe 2455
The Titans suck because they have no patience, no continuity in the coaching staff. What would have happened if the Seahawks bailed on Pete after 2 losing seasons? It takes time and some faith in a process to rebuild. That's on the ownership.
Be curious to see who plays IOL this game. I'm wondering if something like Haynes/Olu/Bradford, combined with Sam's four interceptions last game, might lead to a game plan heavy on whatever run concepts make sense.
I've felt all season that we're trying to keep Walker intact, best we can, for the playoffs. That would explain his touches. And/or he has some kind of nagging injuries that they're managing. (And I still don't think he'll be resigned, not even if he's Super Bowl MVP. Well. Maybe then.)
Regardless, MM has done a terrific job (from my vantage on the sidelines) not forcing players back into the lineup early, waiting for them to be closer to healed, with an eye toward the long season and the playoffs. I'll be surprised if Zabel plays. But, my usual disclaimer, I am often wrong.