Sam Darnold has a higher rate of interceptions with the Seattle Seahawks than he had with the New York Jets. That’s actually not the stat that should concern the Seahawks about Darnold, if there even is reason to be worried.
The interceptions will balance out over the season, as they did last year. As long as Darnold is efficient in yards per pass and continues to throw a high rate of touchdowns, while also developing chemistry with receivers who aren’t hyphenated, history has proven many times that quarterbacks who throw picks can also be Super Bowl winners, MVPs, and Hall of Famers.
If Aaron Rodgers played 10 more seasons and averaged 10 interceptions per season, he would still not catch up to two-time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning in career picks. He would also not have as many picks as Hall of Famers Drew Brees or Peyton Manning.
Rodgers is almost paranormally good at throwing a lot of touchdowns without turning the ball over — his career interception rate of 1.4% is the best in NFL history — and he’s also famously bad at reaching the Super Bowl.
With five picks in three games since he returned from injury, Darnold’s performances in Seattle’s two losses have got fans asking if Mike Macdonald should un-lock the backup. But that’s not all we should watch: Darnold has 7 touchdowns on 98 passes, the highest rate of his NFL career at 7.1%.
That would be a 40-touchdown pace, if not for Darnold already missing two games.
Does this mean Darnold has been good? Not really. We’ll get to some reasons why he wasn’t good against the 49ers in a minute. However, can teams win the Super Bowl like this? Yeah, it’s actually happened recently.
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Matthew Stafford — another famous interception-thrower — had 41 touchdowns and a league-leading 17 interceptions when the Rams won the Super Bowl in 2021. Over his last four games of the season, Stafford had eight touchdowns and eight interceptions.
As long as there is yin and yang, a quarterback can get away with throwing a high rate of interceptions. If the rest of the team is good, that team can also withstand the turnovers as long as the quarterback leads enough scoring drives.
In 2007, Eli Manning led the league in interceptions (20) and won the Super Bowl
Since 2021, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes rank 1-2 in interceptions; Mahomes has won two Super Bowls in that time, while Allen would have probably won at least one if not for Mahomes
Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Brett Favre all led the league in picks at one point, usually multiple times in their careers
Joe Flacco has a better career interception rate than Peyton Manning. So what’s the real difference? Flacco’s teams did not score enough points. He has the same career touchdown rate as Trent Dilfer, Jake Plummer, and Alex Smith. He’s below Geno Smith, Justin Fields, and Gardner Minshew.
When the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2012, Flacco had 11 touchdown passes in four playoff games. That is the only time in his career that Flacco had that many touchdowns in four games.
Sam Hell
Nobody would argue that Sam Darnold is playing good ball this season, but if he throws 35 touchdowns and doesn’t continue his interception rate of 5.1% (which would be insane*) then the Seahawks should win a lot of games.
*Jameis Winston had a INT% of 4.8% when he threw 30 picks
Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph was asked about Darnold this week and how he’s been able to get better since the Jets. The coach’s take isn’t wrong: Did he get that much better or did he upgrade the scenery?
Darnold didn’t have Justin Jefferson or Jaxon Smith-Njigba in New York or Carolina. And he wasn’t paired with a defensive coordinator like Mike Macdonald or Brian Flores to at least always keep the games close.
Darnold had an interception on 3.2% of his throws with the Jets, compared to 3.3% of his throws with the Seahawks.
Darnold went 13-25 with the Jets
Darnold is 19-5 with the Seahawks
He also flamed out with the Panthers despite a 2.9% interception rate, because he had an equal 2.9% touchdown rate.
The Seahawks could still be 5-0 even with all of the turnovers — and they have been costly turnovers often leading directly to touchdowns — so even just a small improvement there — by both Darnold and the running backs — should be good enough. Especially if Darnold increases his value in the red zone.
Kurt Warner Film Study of Darnold
You know who did once have an interception rate of 5.2%? Warner. He threw 18 picks in 11 games in 2000 and the Rams still went 8-3 in those games. He threw 22 picks the next season and the Rams almost won another Super Bowl with him. Warner threw a LOT of interceptions, but he threw way more touchdowns and he’s in the Hall of Fame.
He’s managed to transition that success into a career on YOUTUBE.
Warner’s one-hour study of Darnold’s game against the San Francisco 49ers is well worth the time. He doesn’t just explain Darnold’s mistakes — of which there were aplenty — but also the offensive line and some curious play designs by Brian Fleury.
We shouldn’t conclude that Fleury is a bad play caller or designer just from this video, but it’s worthwhile to have someone like Warner explaining to fans the thought process of a good design and probably what’s going through Darnold’s head. On the bad plays, Warner feels Darnold either didn’t make the best decisions against San Francisco or wasn’t coached to make the right calls.
And that’s okay! We shouldn’t expect the Seahawks to be perfect and we wouldn’t want them to think that they are.
You can’t fix a mistake if you don’t accept it first.
Well, I think the video is pretty enlightening at least. If you also did, or did not, share your own takeaways in the comments:
JohnnyLondon: Quite simply, who is the worse QB right now - Bo Nix or Darnold? I refuse to have anything to do with the Broncos - I just wish horrors upon them, because Payton - so it would be good to know whether Nix is playing just as badly.
I won’t pretend that I’ve watched a lot of Bo Nix this season, but the stats don’t indicate a change from the Bo Nix we’ve come to know, which is that he’s the most infamous “game manager” quarterback in the NFL. Which for my definition just boils down to getting the ball out quick and short and not taking any risks because he doesn’t have the arm or repertoire for a deep passing attack.
In that sense, Nix is the COMPLETE OPPOSITE from the high-risk, high-reward CHAMPIONSHIP/MVP quarterbacks I mentioned in the beginning.
Obviously the Broncos have had a lot of regular season success with Nix, including 14 wins in 2025 when he also led the league in attempts. However, Nix was 30th in completed air yards per completion and attempt.
The top-five in that category in 2025: Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson, Stafford, Darnold, and Brock Purdy.
All of his stats are worse this season, including air yards, and Nix responded to that “narrative” this week by saying that it’s basically a myth that he’s not as good as he was last year. However, Sean Payton took back play calling duties from Davis Webb in Week 5 because Denver’s offense has been so bad and what did he do? Pull on the reins even more, per Next Gen Stats:
With Payton taking over as the primary play caller, the Broncos posted their highest called run rate in a game this season (49.1%) and their lowest pass rate over expected (-7.7%).
Nix still worked close to the line of scrimmage, averaging 5.1 air yards per attempt, but the distribution of those throws changed. Nix posted season lows in both passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage and passes thrown downfield (14.8% each), living instead in the 0-9 air yard range on a season-high 51.9% of attempts. Payton also leaned on the quick game, with Nix getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds on 48.1% of attempts and targeting screens on 18.2%, both highs for him in a game this season.
Denver traded for Jaylen Waddle in the offseason, but his addition hasn’t stretched the offense any. If anything, the game has been shrunken down even more for Nix. He has the lowest rate of passes beyond 10 air yards of any quarterback in the entire league.
It’s not that Nix is bad or incompetent. He’s just not a self-sustaining machine like so many of the great ones. He doesn’t have enough talent to be put in any system and find a way. Whereas Darnold, yeah he can make some really frustrating decisions and bad throws, but he is so obviously one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever play for Seattle, if not the most talented.
I’m not sure if this is fair but I’m going to try it anyway: Eli Manning is Darnold’s floor and Nix’s ceiling. If that’s where they meet on Thursday, should be a tight game (won by Seattle).
Grant: How has Brady Russell been as a fullback? Is Fleury using a FB more/less/same as KK did? The Denver run defense hasn't been great this year, so what can Fleury do to take advantage?
What I can say definitively is that Robbie Ouzts played in 19% of the snaps last year and Russell has played in 25.5% this year. SumerSports has the Seahawks with the fourth-most 22 personnel (2 RB) but still only 8%. However, does that count plays like this when Russell is lined up as a tight end and then motions into being a fullback? Probably not.
What’s telling is that Russell had 31 snaps against the Cardinals, but only six against the 49ers. Situational reasons or indication of problems?
Where he continues to be a presence is on special teams, leading the Seahawks by a lot with 87% of those snaps. I think Seattle really wanted to try out some fullback stuff with Ouzts and his loss — as well as Jake Bobo’s — is being felt far more than I anticipated.
I know you asked about Klint Kubiak last year, but for what it’s worth the Raiders run 22 on over 16% of plays, second-most in the NFL. They’re also a terrible running team—32nd in yards per carry.
And I don’t think Denver’s run defense is quite as bad as the raw numbers indicate. Since Kenneth Walker dominated them in Week 1, they’ve been otherwise good and a lot of those stats have come from quarterbacks. They held Christian McCaffrey to 52 yards, but allowed Deebo Samuel to gain 44 yards on three carries.
Is this where the Shaheed is the sha-need?
cavmax: Let's make a deal for Jared Verse
I don’t think the Browns are quite in the mood for dealing yet, but they could certainly get there. I think Verse is a great bull rusher. However, he’s one of the worst edge rushers in the NFL in converting pressures to sacks. He ranks second-worst in that category since coming into the league. Would he excel as an understudy to Jarran Reed though and move inside?
Burgdawg: Special teams looks to be off in places. Myers and Dickson look pretty good, but kickoff coverage has not had last years lockdown feel. Curious what you see happening.
Beezo: Adding to this, I believe there were new rules implemented this year, what are they and could that be part of it?
The “dynamic kickoff” became a thing in 2024, and the touchback was moved from the 30 to the 35 in 2025. There was one rule change in 2026, which gave return units a little more flexibility in where they were allowed to line up.
Moving the touchback to the 35 may encourage more kicks to go in the landing zone, but has the receiving flexibility allowed teams to return the ball further down the field?
League-wide the average field position has change a little bit compared to 2025 (by 0.3 yards) but look how much it has changed for the Seahawks:
2023: opponents start from the 27.3
2024: start from the 29.7
2025: start from the 31.1
2026: start from the 31.5* (league average: 30.9)
*average impacted by turnovers too
Well, that’s potentially a very big deal. Over 4 yards in four years. I think it’s related to the rules, really. That’s what I think. But Carolina leads the NFL with an average of 26.9 after kickoffs, so it could be fixable.
Paul G: Old Friends Dept: Boye Mafe was a key contributor in the Bengals’ win over Miami. In addition to recording his third sack of the season, Mafe had two QB hits, seven QB pressures and a tipped pass intercepted by DB Jordan Battle. His PFF grade of 88 overall was the highest among Bengal defenders.
Riq Woolen played all 72 snaps in the Eagles’ brutal loss to Jacksonville. Although Woolen was the defender on a one-handed TD catch, Philly Voice credited Woolen with solid coverage. Judge for yourself (1:10).
Beezo: Could Woolen be a trade target?!? ;)
No matter what I’ve ever written about Riq Woolen here, players do “come home” all the time in the NFL. I’m not sure that his coverage has been great in general, as he’s allowed 8 catches on 12 targets for 135 yards and a touchdown in the last two games, plus I’ve seen some penalties on him. Maybe the stats aren’t being totally truthful, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they were.
Shout out to Mafe. He could just be more proof that Seattle is not a place where edges should come to thrive as pass rushers. I don’t believe an edge will get as many pressures or sacks with the Seahawks as they would in many other systems.
IdahoFred: I wanted to ask this the last time, but I didn’t have time to put my thoughts down. How do you do it?
Frequently you seem to know when to make a post to respond to the general malaise that is in the group/channel. You wrote something recently that was very encouraging after one of the losses and I remember the post you made last year before we played the 49ers where you said they were not that good. You seem to know what and when to write. And how do you find that obscure trivia? You are not only a dedicated fan, but also a dedicated writer committed to your craft. Thanks for all you do. And thanks to everyone who ask thoughtful questions for you to answer and make meaningful comments that contribute to the content.
Well, this may be the hardest question I’ve ever had to answer because I don’t know what to say except Thanks!
I often remember a game in 2012 that taught me a lot about the importance of being — let’s say “emotionless” — about the Seahawks. Seattle was 6-4 and coming off of their bye week and to this point Pete Carroll had still not won a lot of games with the Seahawks so “hot seat” was a popular term then.
Seattle took a 21-14 lead over the Dolphins on a Leon Washington kickoff return midway through the fourth quarter (taking the sting out of a roughing the passer penalty that negated an interception right before Miami’s touchdown) and that felt like ball game—Only for the Seahawks defense to collapse and lose 24-21.
That was a gut punch, dropping to 6-5 and many felt like the playoffs would be out of reach after that game. But for some reason that was not my reaction. My post-game article was titled: Seahawks are in a bad positon, but I’m not going to give up now
It just seemed to me like Seattle had made a lot of strides under Carroll and this was only one disappointing loss, so let’s just see what happens in these next five games anyway. The season isn’t cancelled! And so began the legendary end of the 2012 season, including 58-0, 50-17, and 42-13.
The way I see it, the Seaside Joe newsletter — and the Seaside Joe community — seems like it keeps it more real because there’s so much NOISE out there. It’s not that there’s a “special power”, here other than clarity, it’s more that there’s a lot of overreactions out there.
I mean, Justin Fields finished top-10 in MVP voting when the Bears went 3-14! We live in such weird times!
For me to write that the 49ers were overrated last year, I felt like I was only writing what everybody should have been saying. Like the sky is blue. It wasn’t like “I know what nobody else knows!” It’s more “We all know this, right?” They weren’t good against good teams.
(The 49ers aren’t overrated now.)
On that note, I will add that I reiterated several times in the offseason that the Rams were overrated because they have major holes on defense and the worst special teams. And to me that was obvious, but it’s not as good as a headline about Myles Garrett. I feel like mainstream media is giving me free money with many of the most popular bad takes.
Beezo: Seahawks Stadium has had a few notable games over the last 2-3 seasons of being “overtaken” by opposing fans. It doesn’t seem to be nearly as bad as SoFi or State Farm, but it has definitely been a growing trend in the wrong direction.
Because of your coverage for the Rams/Chargers and their issues with this, has the Turf Show ever looked at if this is a growing trend in the NFL? Or is it simply unique to a few teams - Bills, 49ers, Saints are who come to mind as traveling fan bases that make noise (others travel well, but are not usually as loud)?
Yes, a report by Vivid Seats showed that away team representation had nearly doubled from 2017 to 2021. Fans of the Eagles, 49ers, and Bills can consistently hit 40-50% of the crowd. So I think that seeing more red in the crowd than you wanted to see on Sunday was largely due to the 49ers fans traveling well than totally representative of a complete shift there.
Meanwhile, the NFL moving teams to L.A. and Las Vegas is more transparently related to selling out stadiums with the expectation of attracting travelers and away fans. And a 49ers game at SoFi is like a home game for the Niners. They’re consistently 60-65% of the crowd there. It could be worse.
I did watch the Warner video in its entirety. I do think Sam’s timing is off on the JSN INT, (late) and he did not lead Arroyo enough on that INT. I’m going to watch the All 22 today and I think Sam missed a few opportunities for big plays because he didn’t see them. Horton was one of them, and on another, Horton beat his man but pressure was too quick. He only played a few passing plays. I know several guys have told me he’s not out there because he’s a WR 3 or 4, but if you’re looking for TDs to make up for the INTs, Horton is a scoring machine.
> It just seemed to me like Seattle had made a lot of strides under Carroll and this was only one disappointing loss, so let’s just see what happens in these next five games anyway. The season isn’t cancelled!
I'd also like to point out that if you enjoy watching your team play just for the sake of it (which I find to be an exponentially more enjoyable and less frustrating way to follow the Seahawks), the season is never cancelled! They keep playing out the season even when they are eliminated from the playoffs! There's more football to enjoy!
Is it more fun when they win? Sure. But it doesn't have to *stop being fun* when they lose.