When the season started, Seahawks fans ranked Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the most important player on the team. So it’s not surprising that seven weeks later, JSN is still the most important player on the team; but it’s fascinating how much the gap has widened between him and every other offensive player on Seattle’s roster.
Were it not for Smith-Njigba, the Seahawks could be in the running as the worst offense in the NFL. Instead, they’re just really super disappointing.
This change is clearly reflected in Seaside Joe’s weekly 12 questions expectations survey, as JSN has risen from getting 35.6% of the vote for Offensive Player of the Game in Week 1 (Sam Darnold got the most votes) to almost 75% of the votes ahead of tomorrows game against the Chiefs:
Darnold received 17% of the votes this week, and nobody else got more than 2%. That’s how singularly talented Seattle’s offensive personnel is perceived to be by the Seahawks’ own fans.
Could JSN be the most valuable receiver in franchise history? What about in all of NFL history to a Super Bowl contender?
Seahawks fans agree that until now there was never any question that Steve Largent is the best receiver in the history of the franchise. He was also strongly positioned as the best player on Seattle’s offense by a mile.
However, even Largent’s importance to the Seahawks may not compare to JSN’s over the past two seasons.
Largent’s top-3 target share seasons:
28.2%, 1983
27.3%, 1978
27.1%, 1984
For almost all of his career, Largent consistently landed between 24% and 28% of Seattle’s target share. It wouldn’t be enough for me to share yardage or reception stats because we know that football has changed a lot since Largent’s era.
Consider this: Largent led the NFL in yards in 1979 and 1985. He had 1,237 and 1,287 yards in those season, respectively. The last time that 1,287 yards would have led the NFL in a season was 1987. Two years after Largent led the league.
What we can measure instead is volume share, it’s the closest thing we have to comparing receivers across different eras. Now look at JSN.
JSN’s last 3 seasons:
24.1%, 2024
35.8%, 2025
35.1%, 2026
When JSN was teammates with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, he still had a Largent-like target percentage. Without those two, JSN’s target share has skyrocketed well out of Largent’s atmosphere—and that’s the best receiver in franchise history.
It’s almost like when Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs in 1920. The previous record was 29 (by Babe Ruth, a year earlier). Ruth set the career home run record in 1921. He would then hit almost 600 more.
That’s almost how it feels when we compare JSN’s importance to an offense and virtually every other player in the NFL who isn’t a quarterback.
The story is the same when comparing JSN’s percentage of catches and yards:
Largent had a career-high 34.3% of Seattle’s receiving yards in 1978, an era when he was starting opposite of Sam McCullum, a receiver who was good enough to get almost equal targets to Largent over the next few seasons.
This is decidedly NOT the case with JSN right now. Call it design, call it circumstances, put it on Darnold if you want. The Seahawks haven’t been targeting anyone else with nearly the same frequency and they also don’t feel the need to because it seems like good things ONLY happen when JSN is targeted.
Smith-Njigba has 48.8%(!!!) of Seattle’s receiving yards. He has been targeted 66 times. Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, and Tory Horton have been targeted a combined 61 times. JSN has 717 yards. They have 408 yards.
If the Seahawks start winning games and this pattern doesn’t change — they’re nearly 6-0 despite this disparity so it’s entirely possible — I don’t see how voters can avoid putting Jaxon Smith-Njigba into the conversation as a serious MVP contender.
The latest Seahawks video by All-22 is just one offensive lowlight after another, putting pressure not only on Brian Fleury and Sam Darnold, but also Grey Zabel, Abe Lucas, Shaheed, Horton, and most everyone else to start playing with more effort, consistency, and concentration. It’s a team failure across the board … except for that one guy.
The Seahawks have had 16 touchdown drives this season:
7 ended on a touchdown pass to JSN
4 others included a 3rd or 4th down completion for a 1st down to JSN
A TD drive vs WAS incl 3 straight 1st down throws to JSN
A TD drive vs LAC started with a 20-yarder to JSN
There have only been 3 touchdown drives by Seattle all season that didn’t include a first down or touchdown catch by JSN. One of those was a short field that only necessitated two plays. This doesn’t even include field goal drives. It’s crazy how heroic JSN has had to be this season just for the Seahawks to score points.
Even when you look at Jerry Rice’s career, he always had a Hall of Fame quarterback and a Hall of Fame skill player next to him. It doesn’t discredit him, he can’t choose his teammates, it’s just wild that not even the greatest receiver of all-time was asked to carry an offense (I won’t say carry a “team” because Seattle’s defense is probably doing that) like JSN is carrying right now.
This isn’t necessarily “cool” news
While it is cool that Smith-Njigba is this good, it’s too bad that the Seahawks seem to be struggling at almost every other offensive position. Without a trade, I don’t see how it’s going to get better this season—and it puts so much pressure on JSN to stay healthy. He might not even be 100% right now.
Zach Charbonnet will be back — although not this week, he’s been ruled OUT — but he’s not a star. Anthony Bradford is back, which shouldn’t feel as comforting as it feels. Elijah Arroyo is out for the season. Kupp isn’t regaining his youth. Perhaps the greatest hope lies in the offensive line, if Lucas and Zabel can get it together.
The Seahawks do have to consider changes moving forward if it doesn’t get better. Changes that would have seemed unthinkable in the offseason — quarterback, offensive coordinator, a big trade before the deadline — but perhaps necessary when losses are so clearly concentrated in one area.
Even heroes need sidekicks.
Here are your Week 7 expectations
Average Score: Seahawks 23, Chiefs 19
My prediction: Seahawks (under), Chiefs (under)
4 points is the lowest expected margin of victory by you all season.
It’s also the first time that more than 10% of expect the Seahawks to lose, as 23% of you picked the Chiefs. I don’t expect the Seahawks to score 23 points, but I also don’t expect the Chiefs to score 19 and I do expect Seattle to win.
Kansas City has ruled out starting right tackle Jaylon Moore, as well as receiver Rashee Rice. That means the Chiefs don’t have their top two receivers (Tyquan Thornton being the other) and they’ll have a backup right tackle opposite an undrafted rookie left tackle. Kenneth Walker and Travis Kelce would have had their toughest matchup against a defense all season even if they weren’t short-handed, but they are.
Overconfidence has already bitten me this season and Seattle has their issues:
Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Uchenna Nwosu are all Questionable; Drake Thomas is ruled out. Still, I’m leaning towards a low-scoring win at home for Seattle.
Sam Darnold passing yards: 230 (under)
Probably wouldn’t be that hard for Darnold to surpass this number. I’ll trade in all the pass attempts for zero interceptions though.
Emanuel Wilson rushing yards: 57 (over)
With Charbonnet out and George Holani struggling in a number of ways, I’m leaning on a big game for Wilson. It’s probably Seattle’s best bet.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba receiving yards: 116 (under)
He’s been over this number four times already. He could do it again. The Chiefs have been very good against WR1 this season, but they haven’t faced anyone close to as good as JSN.
2nd-most receiving yards:
A.J. Barner, 29%
Tory Horton, 27%
Cooper Kupp, 25%
First Seahawks TD:
JSN, 30%
Zach Charbonnet, 27%Wilson and Barner, 13%
Sack leader:
Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy, 29%
Emmanwori (?), 15%
Most likely to force a TO:
Julian Love, 25%
Ernest Jones, 22%
Emmanwori (?), 18%
OPOG:
JSN, 75%
Darnold, 17%
Barner, 2%
DPOG:
Emmanwori (?), 35%
Williams, 16%
Jones, 13%
Emmanwori’s chunk of Defensive Player of the Game has more than doubled from last week. It’s too bad that he showed up on the injury report late in the practice week.
STPOG:
Dickson, 36%
Myers, 31%
Shaheed, 19%
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" Anthony Bradford is back, which shouldn’t feel as comforting as it feels."
... well, " Anthony Bradford is back." Still, 'n all, this Does feel good.
Go get 'em, Tony ! ! !
From confident, to worried:
There is a concerning similarity between JSN and K9. Both are critical to the success of their teams, consequently the loss of either would have a huge impact. I keep hearing here at SSJ that it is inevitable that K9 will lose playing time to injury, just a matter of time. If JSN continues to carry this outsized load, teams will do whatever they can to stop him. I’m not promoting a dirty hits conspiracy. It’s just inevitable that he’s going to get taken down hard when the opportunity presents.
K9 is built to take punishment. JSN is not, hell he was hurt last week and played through it, that cannot become the expectation.
JS needs to bring in some kind of relief pronto or Seattle will become the worst offense in the league ifJSN is removed from the picture via injury.