All the news that has come out after is work out, has me thinking if he is available the Hawks should take him (Carter)! As far as 1-20 that is SO open- Trade up, trade down , pick someone that has maybe fallen a few spots, Who Knows? But there are some really good players at areas that would make So much sense, kind of like last year! Center-LB-True DE, RB, CB- Wouldn't it be cool to see their draft board and be a fly on the wall come draft day!
Team visits are neither meaningless nor are they extremely telling. I don't believe the Seahawks are intentionally misrepresenting themselves for misdirection's sake, but neither do I believe this means Carter is all but already slotted into the #5 spot.
I will say that the very best case scenario for the Seahawks will be if Carter loves football, is dedicated to his craft, looks forward to working his ass off, and thinks Seattle is the best place he could end up at. Then Seattle drafts him, and the dynasty begins!
The Carter visit is due diligence, and no indication, to me, that the Hawks are thinking of actually taking him at #5. He gets more tempting lower down in the draft, so this is exactly what they should do.
From the beginning, you said Young is the likely first pick, Houston could pass on Stroud, and Arizona is the pivot point. With no trades the draft could easily go Young, Anderson, Carter, Stroud. Or if the Colts trade with Arizona (to prevent another team from coming up ) then go Young, Anderson, Stroud and Carter. The bottom line in my mind is that for Carter to fall to five requires the Colts to have the fourth pick because I don’t see the Colts picking Carter. DT is actually an area of strength for the Colts. What the Colts need besides QB is corner and a OT. I have to believe that or taking a flyer on a QB (stupid but who knows) is their plan B.
I'd give at least 60% the Colts take a QB. Since Luck's unanticipated retirement, they've been dying for their next messiah. Plus they see themselves in win-now mode. Really, it's since Luck got injured and didn't recover as expected. Or better still, turn back the clock to since trading Manning to Denver. Denver's great good fortune with Manning had, I'm sure, something to do with the king's ransom we got for Russ. That plus the Rams' success with Stafford and the Bucks' success with an aging Brady.
From what I hear, the Colts are the most likely landing spot for Lamar Jackson, in which case, their search for a QB is over, and they will take a non-QB.
That wouldn't shock me. I could see the Colts paying the kind of ransom required (both to the Ravens and then to get Jackson to sign). If they go that route, I don't see them taking Carter either. Their needs lie elsewhere. But it's of course hard to say. If they think Jalen's a generational talent and they're not overly concerned about his character, they could take him.
With some wavering, I remain the camp of a) the Hawks will take Carter if he’s there, and b) he probably won’t be there. Obviously anything could happen. But if were I a gambler, I’d bet on Anderson, Carter, Stroud, and Young being the first four picks. I also believe that trading down from #5 is easier said than done. If I’m PCJS, I want to be as certain of Carter as I can so that there’s no hesitation in the event that he’s available. But the bulk of my draft prep goes into figuring out what to do with the #5 given the likelihood that Anderson and Carter have already been taken.
Yep they may not be able to get what they want but if they try they might just get what they need! Two years ago the cowboys desperately wanted a corner. Then both of the corners they wanted were unexpectedly drafted so they settled for Micha Parsons. Who is this year’s Micha Parsons?
The irony of the draft. Always so hard to say who will emerge but a team can get rescued from itself. Stingley before Sauce is last year's example. And Woolen uber alles.
I recently listened to a draft episode of the Athletic’s pro football podcast. They managed to discuss last year’s CB class without so much as a mention of Woolen.
Despite that Alex Rollins video that had me questioning everything I’d taken for granted about Anderson by, errrr, just reading about what other people said about him (i.e. rendered ineffective in one game by a potential first round RT keeping his hands down) he’s still one of three hyped prospects I’d like to see PCJS go with at five -
A. Carter
B.Robinson
C. Anderson
Because A, we need Carter not just to run a 3-4 defensive scheme full stop, but provide the potential to turn opposing lineman into turnstiles, something we haven’t had since god knows when (actually, he probably does know - Tez?)
B, because bringing Bijan into the backfield with KWIII almost feels like warping the allowable parameters of how you are supposed to play football, making the stat nerds choke on their half-strength americano (extra milk). Put two of the most gaudily-talented RBs in the NFL on the field at the same time. Football LSD.
3. Anderson just yells proven commodity, so presumably bolsters the group of Nwosu, Mafe and Tyreke - the latter of which could be a real sleeper, given that he was apparently giving our rookie tackles hellish problems in last year’s camp before injury).
Easy to take your trousers off and whirl them about your head if one of these three pull on the Seahawks cap at the podium, and surely one of them will still be there!
I can’t think of a beverage more joyless, uninspiring and offensive to its foundation - which is exactly how I feel about someone telling me Bijan cannot, must not, shall not be drafted at 5.
The world and its beverages can look so different through different eyes and hearts. So rich, so smooth, so comforting (particularly when mixed with coffee about 50/50). Unfortunately, for me, so flatulence inducing I generally steer (pun unintentional) clear.
As for Bijan, if we landed him I'd be damn excited (even if I thought the decision to take him at five rather stupid).
All silliness aside, I've been thinking likewise that Carter's the guy most likely to land in Seattle. The way the team has handled free agency seems consistent with it, although Anderson would fit well too. I personally doubt the Texans pick Anderson or Carter. They either take Stroud or Young (whichever remains) or trade the pick for a ton of draft capital. At least that's what they'd do if they had any sense -- we need to remain circumspect that we're talking about the Texans so most anything could happen.
Arizona could take Anderson or Carter or trade down. I'd say there's a 10% chance or less that both Anderson and Carter are gone at 5. Could happen but not likely. So everything comes down to Schneider's research into Carter and ultimate comfort level that he can be motivated and coached to become the guy he's capable of becomming. Which could be the guy with the highest ceiling in this draft class.
I'd be excited if he landed in Seattle. I'm sure we all would. I'd be thrilled if we got Anderson, and I'd feel a bit more at ease with it, but in terms of unusual, impossible-to-find talent, I'd give Carter the nod. Higher ceiling, lower floor. I imagine a new regime in Arizona chooses not to risk it at three and goes with Anderson. Anyone can flame but no one could criticise them for going with the seemingly obvious choice. Leaving Carter for the Colts or us. It's hard to rule out any possibility with the Colts. I mean, after all, we're talking about the frickin' Colts. But if ever there was a team that needs to take a QB, they would seem to be it. So I'm guessing they take a chance on Levis or Richardson. We'll see.
I suppose. Will be a fun evening on the 27th if Seattle takes Carter. Just to read Stanton's reaction. But whomever Seattle takes, most of all I hope we look back on it years from now and say that was one of the best selections in franchise history.
Comment: Thanks again and this piece is a must read for all Hawks fans particularly any that have been critical of your takes / opinions on Carter and the QBs etc.
This is all the comments now. It's really pretty sad. I read all Rob's posts, just like I read all of Kenneth's, but I'm handing Kenneth my money because he treats people appropriately.
Hey Paul. I imagine your comment is for Kenneth. I agree that it's a shame this blog isn't more well known and well read, but it's growing fast. Rome wasn't built in a day.
I’ve had the same thought/ worry. I want Ken to get rich from his hard work bringing this thoughtful, entertaining product to us, but I don’t want to see the nattering nabobs of negativism that I see on so many other sites. Hopefully this site remains a place for spirited, but mature discourse on Seahawks and other interesting topics covered in the past, such as diet, meditation, pets, economic theory, etc.
Whereas I am hoping Kenneth gets his due, and finds tremendous success, I do wonder if we will enjoy the comments section as much when it is much larger. It isn't so large as to be impersonal yet, and not too small to feel lonely here. It feels "just right" right now.
That's a definite possibility. God knows these fan sites are rarely known for reasonable discourse. But Kenneth deserves to make a living on his very considerable investment of time and energy. Perhaps he'll take steps to keep this place a community. Shouldn't be that hard. Just create reasonable guidelines for posting and enforce them consistently. Perhaps appoint a few old hands as hall monitors.
I wouldn't deny Kenneth success just to have this place remain the same. Sometimes I wish FG's would offer three or four different game threads for the same game. I get tired of the complainers, and negative nancy's.
Ha! There's definitely a few people who only comment when something bad happens and at least one who does it no matter what happens. The beauty of having to pay to comment here is even if someone wants to come in and be an asshole or troll (in the new sense of the word) KDawg still gets their money!
Not sure why the Texans would want to trade down from #2. They have 12 picks this year, including two 1sts and two 3rds (that's five picks over Days 1 & 2 - same as the 'Hawks and the feeling is we have enough '23 draft picks). They also already hold two 1sts in '24 (and two 4ths and 7ths) for a total 10 picks. That's 22 picks across two seasons (or an entirely new Offence & Defence). They have everything they need capital wise to build a new team, what they need now is the players. If they don't feel happy with QB2 (knowing that they have the capital to go get QB1 in '24) picking Anderson (or Carter) is what makes sense.
There's no such thing as too much draft capital. Not in my world. A team can have too much talent. We've seen teams in various sports that didn't mesh because of too many stars with big presences and egos to match. Would be hard to accomplish, though, in this salary cap era because egos are tied to paychecks and there's only so much money to go 'round.
I imagine both Seattle and Texas would look to convert current draft picks into 2024 selections, and likely find partners more than willing.
If Kenneth is reading (and he usually is) a post exploring whether making more picks = more good players would be fascinating. From my basic research, I cannot see any significant corolation between more picks leading to more quality players. The defining factor is where your picks are (i.e. there are, unsurprisingly, more good players in the top end of Rd 1, then Rd 2 and so on - So yes, I guess if you stacked the first 15 1st Rd picks you'd be more likely to hit on a few good players). I'm also wary of any team that has to start or use too many rookies. Some rookies break out and become instant successes, but most don't and again some more detailed numbers would be good.
Some percentage of draft picks will exceed expectations, others will meet them and yet others will fall short. The more (and better/higher) picks a team has, the more opportunities to improve one's roster. This only makes no sense if you're replacing guys who are just as good and working just as cheap who cannot be traded or, worse, cut.
How many rookies should ideally start in year one? In a perfect world, zero. In the real world, it depends. Mainly on the chances of improving one's team. Seattle benefitted from starting two rookie tackles last season. They weren't perfect but they held up well and should be substantially better this year. The more a team plays its rookies, the faster they can improve.
The only pick last year that I thought might be a reach was Mafe. Love his measurables but not his age or his actual production. It was thought his weakness would be the run but in fact it was the pass rush. But he too should be better this season.
The last thing the Texans are doing is trading down. Don’t like the QB take Anderson with 2 and Robinson or JSN at 11. Take the best player available at 33 etc.
All the news that has come out after is work out, has me thinking if he is available the Hawks should take him (Carter)! As far as 1-20 that is SO open- Trade up, trade down , pick someone that has maybe fallen a few spots, Who Knows? But there are some really good players at areas that would make So much sense, kind of like last year! Center-LB-True DE, RB, CB- Wouldn't it be cool to see their draft board and be a fly on the wall come draft day!
Team visits are neither meaningless nor are they extremely telling. I don't believe the Seahawks are intentionally misrepresenting themselves for misdirection's sake, but neither do I believe this means Carter is all but already slotted into the #5 spot.
I will say that the very best case scenario for the Seahawks will be if Carter loves football, is dedicated to his craft, looks forward to working his ass off, and thinks Seattle is the best place he could end up at. Then Seattle drafts him, and the dynasty begins!
The Carter visit is due diligence, and no indication, to me, that the Hawks are thinking of actually taking him at #5. He gets more tempting lower down in the draft, so this is exactly what they should do.
Anything is possible in the draft but it seems with a weak-ish (or non-consensus-ish) top 10, it's hard to imagine JC falling that far.
No visits are an indication of intent, but potential interest can't be dismissed.
Kenneth,
From the beginning, you said Young is the likely first pick, Houston could pass on Stroud, and Arizona is the pivot point. With no trades the draft could easily go Young, Anderson, Carter, Stroud. Or if the Colts trade with Arizona (to prevent another team from coming up ) then go Young, Anderson, Stroud and Carter. The bottom line in my mind is that for Carter to fall to five requires the Colts to have the fourth pick because I don’t see the Colts picking Carter. DT is actually an area of strength for the Colts. What the Colts need besides QB is corner and a OT. I have to believe that or taking a flyer on a QB (stupid but who knows) is their plan B.
I'd give at least 60% the Colts take a QB. Since Luck's unanticipated retirement, they've been dying for their next messiah. Plus they see themselves in win-now mode. Really, it's since Luck got injured and didn't recover as expected. Or better still, turn back the clock to since trading Manning to Denver. Denver's great good fortune with Manning had, I'm sure, something to do with the king's ransom we got for Russ. That plus the Rams' success with Stafford and the Bucks' success with an aging Brady.
From what I hear, the Colts are the most likely landing spot for Lamar Jackson, in which case, their search for a QB is over, and they will take a non-QB.
That wouldn't shock me. I could see the Colts paying the kind of ransom required (both to the Ravens and then to get Jackson to sign). If they go that route, I don't see them taking Carter either. Their needs lie elsewhere. But it's of course hard to say. If they think Jalen's a generational talent and they're not overly concerned about his character, they could take him.
With some wavering, I remain the camp of a) the Hawks will take Carter if he’s there, and b) he probably won’t be there. Obviously anything could happen. But if were I a gambler, I’d bet on Anderson, Carter, Stroud, and Young being the first four picks. I also believe that trading down from #5 is easier said than done. If I’m PCJS, I want to be as certain of Carter as I can so that there’s no hesitation in the event that he’s available. But the bulk of my draft prep goes into figuring out what to do with the #5 given the likelihood that Anderson and Carter have already been taken.
What part are you wavering on? Taking Carter, or that he won't be there? Because it seems he will be there in many many scenarios.
Yep they may not be able to get what they want but if they try they might just get what they need! Two years ago the cowboys desperately wanted a corner. Then both of the corners they wanted were unexpectedly drafted so they settled for Micha Parsons. Who is this year’s Micha Parsons?
That sure is a lot more encouraging than “Um...what does anyone know about LJ Collier?”
The irony of the draft. Always so hard to say who will emerge but a team can get rescued from itself. Stingley before Sauce is last year's example. And Woolen uber alles.
I recently listened to a draft episode of the Athletic’s pro football podcast. They managed to discuss last year’s CB class without so much as a mention of Woolen.
Oh, the horror!
How is that even possible?
My question exactly.
Despite that Alex Rollins video that had me questioning everything I’d taken for granted about Anderson by, errrr, just reading about what other people said about him (i.e. rendered ineffective in one game by a potential first round RT keeping his hands down) he’s still one of three hyped prospects I’d like to see PCJS go with at five -
A. Carter
B.Robinson
C. Anderson
Because A, we need Carter not just to run a 3-4 defensive scheme full stop, but provide the potential to turn opposing lineman into turnstiles, something we haven’t had since god knows when (actually, he probably does know - Tez?)
B, because bringing Bijan into the backfield with KWIII almost feels like warping the allowable parameters of how you are supposed to play football, making the stat nerds choke on their half-strength americano (extra milk). Put two of the most gaudily-talented RBs in the NFL on the field at the same time. Football LSD.
3. Anderson just yells proven commodity, so presumably bolsters the group of Nwosu, Mafe and Tyreke - the latter of which could be a real sleeper, given that he was apparently giving our rookie tackles hellish problems in last year’s camp before injury).
Easy to take your trousers off and whirl them about your head if one of these three pull on the Seahawks cap at the podium, and surely one of them will still be there!
I hadn't heard that about Tyreke. I sure hope he is a sleeper that wakes up and makes last years' draft even better than we thought.
Mostly down with your take but what've you got against milk?
Nothing as long as it has extra pulp.
??????
I can’t think of a beverage more joyless, uninspiring and offensive to its foundation - which is exactly how I feel about someone telling me Bijan cannot, must not, shall not be drafted at 5.
The world and its beverages can look so different through different eyes and hearts. So rich, so smooth, so comforting (particularly when mixed with coffee about 50/50). Unfortunately, for me, so flatulence inducing I generally steer (pun unintentional) clear.
As for Bijan, if we landed him I'd be damn excited (even if I thought the decision to take him at five rather stupid).
Stanton's not gonna be happy about this at all.
All silliness aside, I've been thinking likewise that Carter's the guy most likely to land in Seattle. The way the team has handled free agency seems consistent with it, although Anderson would fit well too. I personally doubt the Texans pick Anderson or Carter. They either take Stroud or Young (whichever remains) or trade the pick for a ton of draft capital. At least that's what they'd do if they had any sense -- we need to remain circumspect that we're talking about the Texans so most anything could happen.
Arizona could take Anderson or Carter or trade down. I'd say there's a 10% chance or less that both Anderson and Carter are gone at 5. Could happen but not likely. So everything comes down to Schneider's research into Carter and ultimate comfort level that he can be motivated and coached to become the guy he's capable of becomming. Which could be the guy with the highest ceiling in this draft class.
I'd be excited if he landed in Seattle. I'm sure we all would. I'd be thrilled if we got Anderson, and I'd feel a bit more at ease with it, but in terms of unusual, impossible-to-find talent, I'd give Carter the nod. Higher ceiling, lower floor. I imagine a new regime in Arizona chooses not to risk it at three and goes with Anderson. Anyone can flame but no one could criticise them for going with the seemingly obvious choice. Leaving Carter for the Colts or us. It's hard to rule out any possibility with the Colts. I mean, after all, we're talking about the frickin' Colts. But if ever there was a team that needs to take a QB, they would seem to be it. So I'm guessing they take a chance on Levis or Richardson. We'll see.
Isn't it Rob Staton? Stanton is an MLB slugger, if I'm not mistaken.
Just checked and, what do you know, you're right. Thanks for setting me straight.
Autocorrect won't. ;)
Put not thy faith in AI, brother. The chi shall set yee free! :0)
Stanton will say the visit is a smoke screen to keep the Moons and others from trading up with Arizona to take Levis.
I suppose. Will be a fun evening on the 27th if Seattle takes Carter. Just to read Stanton's reaction. But whomever Seattle takes, most of all I hope we look back on it years from now and say that was one of the best selections in franchise history.
Me too.
An all-timer in the current SHD blog comments--
Comment: Thanks again and this piece is a must read for all Hawks fans particularly any that have been critical of your takes / opinions on Carter and the QBs etc.
RS: It’s a shame many won’t read it
This is all the comments now. It's really pretty sad. I read all Rob's posts, just like I read all of Kenneth's, but I'm handing Kenneth my money because he treats people appropriately.
I drew the same conclusion.
Hey Paul. I imagine your comment is for Kenneth. I agree that it's a shame this blog isn't more well known and well read, but it's growing fast. Rome wasn't built in a day.
I’ve had the same thought/ worry. I want Ken to get rich from his hard work bringing this thoughtful, entertaining product to us, but I don’t want to see the nattering nabobs of negativism that I see on so many other sites. Hopefully this site remains a place for spirited, but mature discourse on Seahawks and other interesting topics covered in the past, such as diet, meditation, pets, economic theory, etc.
I'd like that more than once if I could.
Whereas I am hoping Kenneth gets his due, and finds tremendous success, I do wonder if we will enjoy the comments section as much when it is much larger. It isn't so large as to be impersonal yet, and not too small to feel lonely here. It feels "just right" right now.
That's a definite possibility. God knows these fan sites are rarely known for reasonable discourse. But Kenneth deserves to make a living on his very considerable investment of time and energy. Perhaps he'll take steps to keep this place a community. Shouldn't be that hard. Just create reasonable guidelines for posting and enforce them consistently. Perhaps appoint a few old hands as hall monitors.
I wouldn't deny Kenneth success just to have this place remain the same. Sometimes I wish FG's would offer three or four different game threads for the same game. I get tired of the complainers, and negative nancy's.
Ha! There's definitely a few people who only comment when something bad happens and at least one who does it no matter what happens. The beauty of having to pay to comment here is even if someone wants to come in and be an asshole or troll (in the new sense of the word) KDawg still gets their money!
Can I nominate you as hall monitor? :o)
LOL! This would be the appropriate reading, of course. But…
Not sure why the Texans would want to trade down from #2. They have 12 picks this year, including two 1sts and two 3rds (that's five picks over Days 1 & 2 - same as the 'Hawks and the feeling is we have enough '23 draft picks). They also already hold two 1sts in '24 (and two 4ths and 7ths) for a total 10 picks. That's 22 picks across two seasons (or an entirely new Offence & Defence). They have everything they need capital wise to build a new team, what they need now is the players. If they don't feel happy with QB2 (knowing that they have the capital to go get QB1 in '24) picking Anderson (or Carter) is what makes sense.
There's no such thing as too much draft capital. Not in my world. A team can have too much talent. We've seen teams in various sports that didn't mesh because of too many stars with big presences and egos to match. Would be hard to accomplish, though, in this salary cap era because egos are tied to paychecks and there's only so much money to go 'round.
I imagine both Seattle and Texas would look to convert current draft picks into 2024 selections, and likely find partners more than willing.
If Kenneth is reading (and he usually is) a post exploring whether making more picks = more good players would be fascinating. From my basic research, I cannot see any significant corolation between more picks leading to more quality players. The defining factor is where your picks are (i.e. there are, unsurprisingly, more good players in the top end of Rd 1, then Rd 2 and so on - So yes, I guess if you stacked the first 15 1st Rd picks you'd be more likely to hit on a few good players). I'm also wary of any team that has to start or use too many rookies. Some rookies break out and become instant successes, but most don't and again some more detailed numbers would be good.
Some percentage of draft picks will exceed expectations, others will meet them and yet others will fall short. The more (and better/higher) picks a team has, the more opportunities to improve one's roster. This only makes no sense if you're replacing guys who are just as good and working just as cheap who cannot be traded or, worse, cut.
How many rookies should ideally start in year one? In a perfect world, zero. In the real world, it depends. Mainly on the chances of improving one's team. Seattle benefitted from starting two rookie tackles last season. They weren't perfect but they held up well and should be substantially better this year. The more a team plays its rookies, the faster they can improve.
The only pick last year that I thought might be a reach was Mafe. Love his measurables but not his age or his actual production. It was thought his weakness would be the run but in fact it was the pass rush. But he too should be better this season.
The last thing the Texans are doing is trading down. Don’t like the QB take Anderson with 2 and Robinson or JSN at 11. Take the best player available at 33 etc.
Screwed up and forgot to write JALEN CARTER in the opening sentence. Sorry everyone!
Geez Joe. One job! 😂
Hope you had a great Easter. That goes to all the readers / contributors too.
The plot thickens!!
Really, I could not imagine for a second that the Seahawks were not considering Jalen Carter and doing "due diligence" down to the bone.
I agree. He seems right up their alley.