Josh Allen is a problem

Mike Macdonald's first test against an elite QB

The Seahawks are getting the “T1000 version” of Josh Allen when they face the Bills this Sunday. Which is even scarier when you consider that the “Arnold Schwarzenegger” version threw for 415 yards and scored 4 touchdowns against Seattle in 2020. Can Macdonald prove to be a difference-maker against a legitimate MVP candidate quarterback?

In the first 6 seasons of his career, Allen was electric but also considered wild and “turnover prone”, including 18 interceptions in 2023. However, through seven games this season, Allen hasn’t thrown one interception and he’s scored 15 touchdowns. Allen is third in the NFL in EPA and EPA/dropback behind only Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels, and he’s definitely better than Jayden Daniels.

This is where Macdonald’s defense has to shine brighter than they have all season: Can the Seahawks stop, if not the best quarterback in the league, a top-3 quarterback? And can they do it with four defensive backs on the injury report?

Allen took advantage of Seattle’s self-inflicted wounds during his lone start against the Seahawks four years ago. Allen’s numbers were juiced (415 yards is tied for his second-best career game) by the fact that he was playing Seattle’s 2020 defense: You will hear Chris Myers say the word “open” about the Bills receivers a lot in these highlights.

Macdonald has had some success against the pass this season, not as much as he or we would like, but the numbers aren’t real until the Seahawks face real quarterbacks. The defensive performance against Kirk Cousins in Week 7 is encouraging, but Cousins ain’t no Josh Allen.

3 non-negotiables to beat the Bills

#1 - Have a self-respecting day in coverage

Tre Brown (ankle) and Nehemiah Pritchett (ankle) did not practice Wednesday, while Riq Woolen (ankle) and Julian Love (knee/quad) were limited. Woolen’s news is actually good as he hasn’t practiced since Week 5.

The Bills traded for Amari Cooper last week to address their need at receiver and he led the NFL with 5.5 yards per route run in his Buffalo debut. At least Devon Witherspoon now has something to do now. It is not clear yet if Woolen will return, but even without him Seattle’s corners need to step up and defend the likes of Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Mack Hollins.

According to this chart by SumerSports, the Seahawks defense is basically average in both man and zone coverage:

Josh Allen is already too good to then give him the added advantage of having open receivers all day. Macdonald’s non-negotiable: Dial up a defense that HAS A PLAN when, not if, Allen breaks out of the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield looking for an explosive play.

These corners must be sticky and force Allen into a coverage sack or a throwaway, anything other than getting crushed by a QB who is ranked top-3 against both zone and man. If you think Allen is just “good” or “really good”, you’re really wrong. It’s the receivers that you have to make struggle.

IMPORTANT QUESTION: “HOW BAD IS THE BILLS DEFENSE THEN?”

#2 - Get an early lead with Kenneth Walker III

The Bills have only had two bad games on defense:

• 35-10 loss to Ravens, Derrick Henry had 199 rushing yards

• 34-28 win over Cards, Kyler Murray and James Conner combined for 107 rushing yards

Head coach Sean McDermott is always going to have a good defense. My golden rule for playing a good defense: Focus on how to center the offense around the best player and for Seattle that player is Walker. Especially with DK Metcalf (knee) potentially trending to be a game-time decision.

If the Seahawks run it 10 times and get 10 yards, they’ll need to change the gameplan. But as much as Ryan Grubb possibly can, Grubb’s non-negotiable: Put the ball in the hands of his best weapon. Henry is a future Hall of Fame running back, but even Breece Hall had 18 carries for 118 yards against the Bills in Week 6, and I believe Walker is as good or better than Hall.

There’s also the option to use Walker in the passing game, like giving him more red zone targets.

Next Gen Stats Fact: “Walker has exceeded 15+ MPH on more than double the number of carries from shotgun (9) than on carries from under center (4) this season despite a near-equal number of opportunities (33 shotgun carries; 32 under center carries). Walker has averaged 2.3 yards after contact per carry on under center runs, fewest among 39 running backs with at least 25 carries. Matchup: the Bills defense has surrendered the 2nd-most yards per carry (5.9) to shotgun runs and the 5th-fewest yards per carry (3.6) to under center runs this season.”

#3 - Respect Buffalo’s top 2 Edge Rushers

Gregory Rousseau is 12th in the NFL with 29 pressures, including 11 last week against the Titans. The Seahawks had two infamous performances, allowing 14 pressures to Nick Bosa (most in a game this year) and 11 to Aidan Hutchinson (3rd-most), and Rousseau’s 11 is sandwiched in between them. But with Stone Forsythe on IR, Michael Jerrell is set to get his second start and Macdonald was encouraged by his debut:

“I am just really pleased with his effort, frankly, and his finish on a per-play basis. I think he has earned the opportunity — if it shakes out at right tackle, we have some moving parts going on there right now. But if he was the guy again this week, we would be really confident in him.”

Rousseau has 3.5 sacks, 13 QB hits, 6 TFL, 1 FF, and A.J. Epenesa has 4 sacks, 8 QB hits, 3 TFL, and 2 FF. Rousseau was a first round pick in 2021, Epenesa was a second rounder in 2020, both have taken their time to develop and both seem to be turning a corner this season.

Charles Cross and Jerrell’s non-negotiable: Be better than the man across from you on Sunday because when this quarterback has time to throw, he can do a lot of damage. With that quarterback on the other team, the Seahawks are going to need all the points they can get.

Seaside Joe 2062