We'll see lots of Jones, Richman and Jerrell in the pre-season. Enough that we'll know how much to dread an injury to either starting tackle. But we'll see. Just having the Seahawks running 12 and 21 personnel more, and 11 personnel less will help the o-line as much as anything. Keep the defense honest for heaven's sake.
I've been curious about what this will look like, when we say the Seahawks will be "running 12 and 21 personnel more, and 11 personnel less". I think many assume this means 12 and 21 personnel will be the prominent formations featured, but I'm not sure that will be the case. With that in mind, I think it is useful to look a the most recent seasons where Kubiak played a major role in the offensive strategy and compare it to what we have seen with the Seahawks in recent years.
I don't have data for 2024, since the formations resource I have had their data cut off by the NFL in 2023 (https://jefeshandiwork.com/shiny/team-formations/). So no Saints data with Kubiak as OC. However, due to the tumultuous nature of the Saints 2024 roster caused by a rash of injuries to key players, I'm not sure how useful it would be anyway. The Saints went into survival mode early and that affected their personnel groupings.
Similarly, I'm not sure how useful the 2024 Seahawks formation data would be due to the failed Grubb experiment. I think most understand that his offensive strategy did not closely resemble NFL norms.
So, with that in mind, I think it would be valuable to look at 2021, where Kubiak was the Vikings OC, 2022 where Kubiak was the Broncos passing game coordinator (Outten OC), and 2023 where he was the 49ers passing game coordinator (Shanahan OC).
Format: (RB-TE-WR): PLAYS (%)
-2021 Vikings:
--1-1-3: 478 (48%)
--2-1-2: 207 (18%)
--1-2-2: 151 (13%)
-2022 Broncos:
--1-1-3: 650 (58%)
--2-1-2: 34 (3%)
--1-2-2: 347 (31%)
-2023 49ers:
--1-1-3: 442 (40%)
--2-1-2: 433 (39%)
--1-2-2: 127 (11%)
***It should be noted that the 2023 49ers had McCaffrey who is both an elite rusher and receiver (86 rec for 716 yards in 2023), and George Kittle who is an elite receiver and blocker (73 rec for 1132 yards in 2023), which skews their formation numbers. They had the ability to line up in 2-1-2 or 1-2-2 and still functionally have 4 All Pro receivers on the field.
Now, the Seahawks, for comparison (Waldron OC):
-2021:
--1-1-3: 641 (65%)
--2-1-2: 7 (1%)
--1-2-2: 282 (29%)
-2022:
--1-1-3: 623 (55%)
--2-1-2: 31 (3%)
--1-2-2: 329 (29%)
-2023:
--1-1-3: 550 (64%)
--2-1-2: 14 (2%)
--1-2-2: 199 (3%)
***It should be noted that Waldron liked to use the 1-3-1 formation at an atypical rate. This is likely due to the need for extra help on the OL, but it does skew his formation numbers. (2021: 34 (3%), 2022: 116 (10%), 2023: 75 (9%)). Compared to Kubiak, who only used 1-3-1 to any real degree in DEN. With the Vikings and 49ers, there were 9 and 0 plays, respectively.
So yes, looking at the numbers, we will likely see more 12 and 21 personnel formations on the field than we have seen in recent years, but 11 personnel will still make up the plurality, if not the majority of plays called.
The precise number will be determined by game time situations and how much the Seahawks will be ahead and able to settle in and control the clock, or need to play close or from behind in an effort to win the game. I don't think the idea that they will just pound the rock to pound the rock is a particularly realistic expectation. They also won't have the luxury of the personnel that Kubiak had in SF to disguise formations because skill positions were chock full of All Pros and future HOFers.
Keeping in mind I got this from Co-pilot.....for the season it looks like the Saints were in 11 personnel almost 70% of the time. However, I think that was out of necessity, not by design. If we isolate the first 2 games when everyone was healthy....
11 personnel - 22%
21 personnel - 27%
12 personnel - 36%
That's what I think the design was, until it all fell apart. Balance baby, balance.
Remember that personnel formation balance is largely situational. The Saints were up 30-3 at the half vs the Panthers and 35-16 at the half vs the Cowboys. That's a situation where play calling is going to be very run heavy, so the proportion of 12 and 21 personnel will be higher.
I remember reading that NO was among the leaders last year running 21 personnel, and the Seahawks were among the lowest. And Seattle was top 3 I think in 11 personnel. And don't get me started on third and 8 and going into empty backfield sets out of shotgun. Still traumatized.
You are right I suspect that 11 personnel will still get the most snaps of any personnel group, but the trick is balance. Run plays in 21 personnel you also run out of 11. Run plays out of 11 that you can run in 12 or 21 personnel. We have some TE talent, so get them on the field more. Be less predictable in whatever groupings we have in there. And if something is working, for Christ sakes keep running it. Make the defence adjust and stop it.
It's going to be very interested. I think the premise behind Kubiak's offence is that everything looks the same early in the play. Makes the defence have to diagnose before they can react. It will be interesting. I'm sure it won't all be sunshine and roses right out of the gate. But it will be fun to watch it evolve.
While I understand the frustration about the amount of time Lucas has missed due to the knee, I do think some perspective is important here.
It was reported as a patellar (knee cap) injury, so it is not structural. His ligaments and cartilage are not shredded. In the offseason program so far, there have been no photos posted of Lucas with any knee protection.
Since Lucas explicitly told the media that it is not a chronic injury, then that tells us the recurring nature of the injury in 2023 was because it wasn't responding to non-surgical treatment. The offhand comment from Pete Carroll that it was "kind of a chronic thing" shouldn't be taken as a medical diagnosis, but as PC expressing his frustration that it was not responding to treatment.
There was a lot of speculation about when Lucas would be available for 2024 following the off-season surgical repair of the knee, but in his interview, he stated that his return to play was on schedule. He didn't return following the bye week because there were setbacks, but because that was the timeline for his recovery. Hopes that he would return sooner by the fans or the team were only that: hopes.
While there are a number of patellar injuries that this could have been, the most common, and the one that seems to fit what we have seen from Lucas the best is Jumper's Knee (patellar tendinopathy/tendinitis). It's a soft tissue injury caused by overuse, but it is a fairly common athletic injury that has a good prognosis for recovery.
Reinjury is always a concern, but I imagine it is one that Lucas and the training staff have a preventative schedule for. The important things to watch for is whether, and how often, we see him with knee protection, and icing during the game. So far, I haven't seen any signs that he is using protection, which is a good sign.
That may change once the pads come on, as a preventative measure. At that point, we should watch for icing or other treatment during the game, and signs that he is in pain. Absent that, I don't think there is much to be concerned about. Again, this isn't a shredded knee.
Yeah, Pete's throwaway comment has taken on a life of its own. I'm not aware of any information made public that Abe's knee will always be a problem he has to manage. How hard the Seahawks work to get him resigned will tell you everything in the offseason.
My question is: did JS make a deal for the best available backup tackle on the market at that time? If so, then we just have to soldier on with JJ.
One other question I have is whether SJ (not SSJ because seaside is one word)
knows something more about Abe Lucas' knee then the rest of us? This isn't the first time I have read SJ referring to that knee as a chronically (perilously?)high risk. Where is the medical evidence for that. Knees can and do get fixed pretty well in this day & age. We all know that body part is always at risk in the NFL but did I miss some confirmed fact about AL ?
Two things: First, All_22 spoke highly of Jones when we got him, and Baltimore is his team. He knows more than I do, and so, provisionally, I take that for a better sign than the profile would suggest. Second, Jedrick Wills comes from my region, so I know a family member or two (quite randomly). He is 25. They moved him from RT to LT as a rookie. He played through a nasty high ankle sprain and I don't know what else, but I would leave room for the possibility that playing in Cleveland and out of position shouldn't necessarily relegate him to the scrap heap. At 25.
Come on, don't sugar coat it dude (ha). Truth is truth (I know, not a popular concept in some quarters). Maybe Josh will read this and aquire a sufficiently large shoulder chip to motivate him to improve to 'adequate'. That said added a bit of wood to the chip. You're welcome. Josh may have his 'break out' season' right? Hey, I bet the Hawks to win the NFC West...so I obviously DO believe in miracles.
I doubt that Seattle has set any roster positions officially, especially who their backups are. They signed Jones before the draft for what is reasonably considered an OL Vet minimum. Jones will have to compete for a spot just like most of the other guys not named Cross, Lucas or Zabel. It's not a given that Jones will even make the squad.
I was trying to think that through the other day as well, and agree. Once you get past Cross, Lucas, and Zabel, there is very little that's a given on the o-line. It will all have to be earned. Olu is guaranteed nothing. Nor is Bradford......who's lowlights I watched this morning and it was truly painful. I don't know how you put a 330 lb man between a DT and the QB, and he doesn't even touch the defender on the way by.
Without inside information on Jerrell and Richman who knows. By like I said, it will need to be earned. May the best men win.
Interesting point. MM has been working on this guy a relatively long time, then. He has a stellar record for getting more out of people than thought possible.
While it wasn’t what you expected to be doing I personally love this article. I’ve been saying this kind of thing for a long time when people get mad at JS and the Hawks for “not drafting OLine”. They draft OLine every year, and often many. The issue is that college is not preparing a high number of high quality OLine. Look at that group of first round picks in 2020 and 5 years later almost no starters at a long-term starting position. This just backs up what I’ve said that JS and FO actually drafts OLine well. He just rarely gives out big money to them. I really hope all the “haters” out there would read this article and the history of the draft. It’s freaking hard to “win” on OLine players. Draft guys who can get taught and get good coaches. I think we finally have that. Thanks SJ for such an in-depth researched article on a backup.
Add to that, many of the best OL prospects either choose or get shifted to DL if athletic enough. For a while there, that was where the $ was. And a pancake block doesn't pad your salary like a sack.
Jones looks like he has some tools, look at any of his sparse highlights and you can see some potential. Not at all sure about his lowlights...have not done enough research. But if everyone seems to think he's built for a mobility based system...then maybe being 28 approaching that magical 30 year mark may make him worth taking a look into, see if he's a fit with the new system.
To put this in a perspective, Tomlinson signed for 4.5M this year and Fant last year cost 3.5-5M depending on how you calculate. Ie, 4-5M = backup tackle. Consider what some mid to low level starters signed for this year, this was as close to as cheap as it could get for a vet, which fits the SJ analysis.
Ouch. That was a difficult read. Thanks for suffering thru writing it, Mr. SSJ. Hey-nothing else has worked on this guy. Maybe the lack of love is the love he needs. If Benton's decades of coaching Big Men finds no purchase, the guys will understand why JS had to find someone out of House. Know if someone among them steps up, it took guts. If forced to using him, Kubiak will have a battery of people and plays to augment his big body simply being in the way of whoever the opponents throws at him. While they unleash their Watt or Bosa at him, focus to the left? Bobo shows how fast he can get to the middle after chipping the edge? Considering the play of Stone Forsyth these last few years, it is not as if our O-Line is new to the situation. No doubt VERY fed up with the whole thing. Meantime, remove your hat, take a knee and let's pray. Group hug, bring it in... Miracles happen.
It's funny, looking back at the history of backup tackles, you're not going to find many studs. Unfortunately in Seattle's case, we can't ignore the backups because of Abe's injury history. Drafting a first or second round tackle in the last 2 drafts is not necessarily what the Seahawks should have done, Zabel may resolve a much bigger issue for Seattle's OL than RT, but it is something that Schneider could have done and then we wouldn't be talking about Josh Jones or George Fant.
Perhaps if we balance this article out with the more optimistic outlook on Mason Richman's origin story we get something a little more satisfying. Ideally, the Seahawks will simply get 17 games apiece from Cross and Lucas.
I suspect our 12s are about to vocalize an appreciation for our Big Trench Players after a long time leaving them feeling ignored. We watched the beginning of it last year with Big Cat Leo Williams celebrating. The smallest displays of Victory will be met with overwhelming crowd responses. People are watching. I'm excited for these new young crews. Home games will be going Nova. Maybe by Game 2 with the Niners, the press will have caught on.
We'll see lots of Jones, Richman and Jerrell in the pre-season. Enough that we'll know how much to dread an injury to either starting tackle. But we'll see. Just having the Seahawks running 12 and 21 personnel more, and 11 personnel less will help the o-line as much as anything. Keep the defense honest for heaven's sake.
I've been curious about what this will look like, when we say the Seahawks will be "running 12 and 21 personnel more, and 11 personnel less". I think many assume this means 12 and 21 personnel will be the prominent formations featured, but I'm not sure that will be the case. With that in mind, I think it is useful to look a the most recent seasons where Kubiak played a major role in the offensive strategy and compare it to what we have seen with the Seahawks in recent years.
I don't have data for 2024, since the formations resource I have had their data cut off by the NFL in 2023 (https://jefeshandiwork.com/shiny/team-formations/). So no Saints data with Kubiak as OC. However, due to the tumultuous nature of the Saints 2024 roster caused by a rash of injuries to key players, I'm not sure how useful it would be anyway. The Saints went into survival mode early and that affected their personnel groupings.
Similarly, I'm not sure how useful the 2024 Seahawks formation data would be due to the failed Grubb experiment. I think most understand that his offensive strategy did not closely resemble NFL norms.
So, with that in mind, I think it would be valuable to look at 2021, where Kubiak was the Vikings OC, 2022 where Kubiak was the Broncos passing game coordinator (Outten OC), and 2023 where he was the 49ers passing game coordinator (Shanahan OC).
Format: (RB-TE-WR): PLAYS (%)
-2021 Vikings:
--1-1-3: 478 (48%)
--2-1-2: 207 (18%)
--1-2-2: 151 (13%)
-2022 Broncos:
--1-1-3: 650 (58%)
--2-1-2: 34 (3%)
--1-2-2: 347 (31%)
-2023 49ers:
--1-1-3: 442 (40%)
--2-1-2: 433 (39%)
--1-2-2: 127 (11%)
***It should be noted that the 2023 49ers had McCaffrey who is both an elite rusher and receiver (86 rec for 716 yards in 2023), and George Kittle who is an elite receiver and blocker (73 rec for 1132 yards in 2023), which skews their formation numbers. They had the ability to line up in 2-1-2 or 1-2-2 and still functionally have 4 All Pro receivers on the field.
Now, the Seahawks, for comparison (Waldron OC):
-2021:
--1-1-3: 641 (65%)
--2-1-2: 7 (1%)
--1-2-2: 282 (29%)
-2022:
--1-1-3: 623 (55%)
--2-1-2: 31 (3%)
--1-2-2: 329 (29%)
-2023:
--1-1-3: 550 (64%)
--2-1-2: 14 (2%)
--1-2-2: 199 (3%)
***It should be noted that Waldron liked to use the 1-3-1 formation at an atypical rate. This is likely due to the need for extra help on the OL, but it does skew his formation numbers. (2021: 34 (3%), 2022: 116 (10%), 2023: 75 (9%)). Compared to Kubiak, who only used 1-3-1 to any real degree in DEN. With the Vikings and 49ers, there were 9 and 0 plays, respectively.
So yes, looking at the numbers, we will likely see more 12 and 21 personnel formations on the field than we have seen in recent years, but 11 personnel will still make up the plurality, if not the majority of plays called.
The precise number will be determined by game time situations and how much the Seahawks will be ahead and able to settle in and control the clock, or need to play close or from behind in an effort to win the game. I don't think the idea that they will just pound the rock to pound the rock is a particularly realistic expectation. They also won't have the luxury of the personnel that Kubiak had in SF to disguise formations because skill positions were chock full of All Pros and future HOFers.
My 2.5 cents.
Keeping in mind I got this from Co-pilot.....for the season it looks like the Saints were in 11 personnel almost 70% of the time. However, I think that was out of necessity, not by design. If we isolate the first 2 games when everyone was healthy....
11 personnel - 22%
21 personnel - 27%
12 personnel - 36%
That's what I think the design was, until it all fell apart. Balance baby, balance.
Remember that personnel formation balance is largely situational. The Saints were up 30-3 at the half vs the Panthers and 35-16 at the half vs the Cowboys. That's a situation where play calling is going to be very run heavy, so the proportion of 12 and 21 personnel will be higher.
Take 3 cents for all that.
I remember reading that NO was among the leaders last year running 21 personnel, and the Seahawks were among the lowest. And Seattle was top 3 I think in 11 personnel. And don't get me started on third and 8 and going into empty backfield sets out of shotgun. Still traumatized.
You are right I suspect that 11 personnel will still get the most snaps of any personnel group, but the trick is balance. Run plays in 21 personnel you also run out of 11. Run plays out of 11 that you can run in 12 or 21 personnel. We have some TE talent, so get them on the field more. Be less predictable in whatever groupings we have in there. And if something is working, for Christ sakes keep running it. Make the defence adjust and stop it.
It's going to be very interested. I think the premise behind Kubiak's offence is that everything looks the same early in the play. Makes the defence have to diagnose before they can react. It will be interesting. I'm sure it won't all be sunshine and roses right out of the gate. But it will be fun to watch it evolve.
While I understand the frustration about the amount of time Lucas has missed due to the knee, I do think some perspective is important here.
It was reported as a patellar (knee cap) injury, so it is not structural. His ligaments and cartilage are not shredded. In the offseason program so far, there have been no photos posted of Lucas with any knee protection.
Since Lucas explicitly told the media that it is not a chronic injury, then that tells us the recurring nature of the injury in 2023 was because it wasn't responding to non-surgical treatment. The offhand comment from Pete Carroll that it was "kind of a chronic thing" shouldn't be taken as a medical diagnosis, but as PC expressing his frustration that it was not responding to treatment.
There was a lot of speculation about when Lucas would be available for 2024 following the off-season surgical repair of the knee, but in his interview, he stated that his return to play was on schedule. He didn't return following the bye week because there were setbacks, but because that was the timeline for his recovery. Hopes that he would return sooner by the fans or the team were only that: hopes.
While there are a number of patellar injuries that this could have been, the most common, and the one that seems to fit what we have seen from Lucas the best is Jumper's Knee (patellar tendinopathy/tendinitis). It's a soft tissue injury caused by overuse, but it is a fairly common athletic injury that has a good prognosis for recovery.
Reinjury is always a concern, but I imagine it is one that Lucas and the training staff have a preventative schedule for. The important things to watch for is whether, and how often, we see him with knee protection, and icing during the game. So far, I haven't seen any signs that he is using protection, which is a good sign.
That may change once the pads come on, as a preventative measure. At that point, we should watch for icing or other treatment during the game, and signs that he is in pain. Absent that, I don't think there is much to be concerned about. Again, this isn't a shredded knee.
Yeah, Pete's throwaway comment has taken on a life of its own. I'm not aware of any information made public that Abe's knee will always be a problem he has to manage. How hard the Seahawks work to get him resigned will tell you everything in the offseason.
My question is: did JS make a deal for the best available backup tackle on the market at that time? If so, then we just have to soldier on with JJ.
One other question I have is whether SJ (not SSJ because seaside is one word)
knows something more about Abe Lucas' knee then the rest of us? This isn't the first time I have read SJ referring to that knee as a chronically (perilously?)high risk. Where is the medical evidence for that. Knees can and do get fixed pretty well in this day & age. We all know that body part is always at risk in the NFL but did I miss some confirmed fact about AL ?
Two things: First, All_22 spoke highly of Jones when we got him, and Baltimore is his team. He knows more than I do, and so, provisionally, I take that for a better sign than the profile would suggest. Second, Jedrick Wills comes from my region, so I know a family member or two (quite randomly). He is 25. They moved him from RT to LT as a rookie. He played through a nasty high ankle sprain and I don't know what else, but I would leave room for the possibility that playing in Cleveland and out of position shouldn't necessarily relegate him to the scrap heap. At 25.
Well heck
Come on, don't sugar coat it dude (ha). Truth is truth (I know, not a popular concept in some quarters). Maybe Josh will read this and aquire a sufficiently large shoulder chip to motivate him to improve to 'adequate'. That said added a bit of wood to the chip. You're welcome. Josh may have his 'break out' season' right? Hey, I bet the Hawks to win the NFC West...so I obviously DO believe in miracles.
I doubt that Seattle has set any roster positions officially, especially who their backups are. They signed Jones before the draft for what is reasonably considered an OL Vet minimum. Jones will have to compete for a spot just like most of the other guys not named Cross, Lucas or Zabel. It's not a given that Jones will even make the squad.
I was trying to think that through the other day as well, and agree. Once you get past Cross, Lucas, and Zabel, there is very little that's a given on the o-line. It will all have to be earned. Olu is guaranteed nothing. Nor is Bradford......who's lowlights I watched this morning and it was truly painful. I don't know how you put a 330 lb man between a DT and the QB, and he doesn't even touch the defender on the way by.
Without inside information on Jerrell and Richman who knows. By like I said, it will need to be earned. May the best men win.
Interesting point. MM has been working on this guy a relatively long time, then. He has a stellar record for getting more out of people than thought possible.
While it wasn’t what you expected to be doing I personally love this article. I’ve been saying this kind of thing for a long time when people get mad at JS and the Hawks for “not drafting OLine”. They draft OLine every year, and often many. The issue is that college is not preparing a high number of high quality OLine. Look at that group of first round picks in 2020 and 5 years later almost no starters at a long-term starting position. This just backs up what I’ve said that JS and FO actually drafts OLine well. He just rarely gives out big money to them. I really hope all the “haters” out there would read this article and the history of the draft. It’s freaking hard to “win” on OLine players. Draft guys who can get taught and get good coaches. I think we finally have that. Thanks SJ for such an in-depth researched article on a backup.
Add to that, many of the best OL prospects either choose or get shifted to DL if athletic enough. For a while there, that was where the $ was. And a pancake block doesn't pad your salary like a sack.
Jones looks like he has some tools, look at any of his sparse highlights and you can see some potential. Not at all sure about his lowlights...have not done enough research. But if everyone seems to think he's built for a mobility based system...then maybe being 28 approaching that magical 30 year mark may make him worth taking a look into, see if he's a fit with the new system.
To put this in a perspective, Tomlinson signed for 4.5M this year and Fant last year cost 3.5-5M depending on how you calculate. Ie, 4-5M = backup tackle. Consider what some mid to low level starters signed for this year, this was as close to as cheap as it could get for a vet, which fits the SJ analysis.
Ouch. That was a difficult read. Thanks for suffering thru writing it, Mr. SSJ. Hey-nothing else has worked on this guy. Maybe the lack of love is the love he needs. If Benton's decades of coaching Big Men finds no purchase, the guys will understand why JS had to find someone out of House. Know if someone among them steps up, it took guts. If forced to using him, Kubiak will have a battery of people and plays to augment his big body simply being in the way of whoever the opponents throws at him. While they unleash their Watt or Bosa at him, focus to the left? Bobo shows how fast he can get to the middle after chipping the edge? Considering the play of Stone Forsyth these last few years, it is not as if our O-Line is new to the situation. No doubt VERY fed up with the whole thing. Meantime, remove your hat, take a knee and let's pray. Group hug, bring it in... Miracles happen.
It's funny, looking back at the history of backup tackles, you're not going to find many studs. Unfortunately in Seattle's case, we can't ignore the backups because of Abe's injury history. Drafting a first or second round tackle in the last 2 drafts is not necessarily what the Seahawks should have done, Zabel may resolve a much bigger issue for Seattle's OL than RT, but it is something that Schneider could have done and then we wouldn't be talking about Josh Jones or George Fant.
Perhaps if we balance this article out with the more optimistic outlook on Mason Richman's origin story we get something a little more satisfying. Ideally, the Seahawks will simply get 17 games apiece from Cross and Lucas.
I suspect our 12s are about to vocalize an appreciation for our Big Trench Players after a long time leaving them feeling ignored. We watched the beginning of it last year with Big Cat Leo Williams celebrating. The smallest displays of Victory will be met with overwhelming crowd responses. People are watching. I'm excited for these new young crews. Home games will be going Nova. Maybe by Game 2 with the Niners, the press will have caught on.
Well, I like to put a positive spin on most player profiles so here's to a healthy and productive season from Abe Lucas!
Screw the Curse, Abe! Today, your career begins. Give us your version of the Maori Ha'Ka!