Top-4 QBs on trade market: Justin Fields is far from the best available

Justin Fields is not the only QB on the trade market: Seaside Joe 1817

I watch almost every reality competition show—Survivor, Big Brother, The Challenge, The Traitors—and in all of them one of the best qualities a player can have is to be overlooked and underestimated. I don’t care how old a season is—I’ll never share spoilers in case now is the time you want to get into one of the shows—but I will say that the only true two-time winner in the history of Survivor was by definition the ultimate player at avoiding attention.

We mostly hear people use being underestimated as a sign of disrespect that they don’t want. Sometimes it is the smartest decision to embrace and actually run towards the “disrespect”.

Just ask Russell Wilson or Tom Brady.

If Wilson got the respect he deserved in the 2012 NFL Draft, he may have suffered the same fate as Robert Griffin III. He was better off as a third round pick going to a team that was already on its way to winning with an elite defense and running back. If Brady was the top pick in 2000, he would have either gone to the Browns (if they had the wherewithal to part with Tim Couch a year after making him the top pick) or same as Russ, headed to D.C. after Washington traded up.

It’s “the disrespect” that paired him with Bill Belichick for two decades, instead of maybe Butch Davis for two years.

The Seattle Seahawks might add a notable new quarterback to the roster in 2024, whether that comes in the draft, free agency, or trade. What I’ve noticed is that the “NFL quarterback trade market” has suddenly become a list with one name on it: Justin Fields.

Okay, he definitely is on the trade market. Whether the Chicago Bears have internally leaned towards keeping him and trading the number one pick, it is obvious that drafting a quarterback is under consideration as even Fields has said that he just wants to know where he’ll be playing next season. If that was your franchise QB, wouldn’t you have told him already not to worry?

But Fields isn’t the only quarterback on the trade market and he’s not the only one who will be changing teams in the offseason. In my opinion, he’s not even the most valuable quarterback on the trade market—he’s just the most famous and he has the most fans.

Last year’s QB trade market resulted in deals for Aaron Rodgers, Trey Lance, and Josh Dobbs (twice). This year’s market is far more robust, including Geno Smith, so I want to address all the names that could be out there and to rank them based on: My 2024 expectations, ‘contract and future’, Seahawks fit, and the potential compensation required to acquire.

To all the QBs under contract who are uncertain about their future, I say: Come on in, guys.

The “hater” argument

A fan saying that another fan is a “hater” if they don’t share their opinions on a player reads as insecure. Unless you are pointing out something that is literally true like “X makes this much money per year” or “Y threw for 31 touchdowns last season”, these are all just opinions, and at Seaside Joe there is room for people who run the entire gamut of NFL takes. I guarantee you there are fans in this community who love Geno Smith, as well as fans who desperately want him to be traded, and nobody is more welcome or unwelcome than another.

Compare that to the YouTube comments on a Top Billin’ video about Geno:

Comment: “Tired of the Geno haters”

Top Billin’ reply: “Ignore them…they clearly don’t have an understanding of the sport…F’ em”

As I wrote on Tuesday, there is such a thing as quarterback ambivalence. The tendency to group together everyone with a more critical view on a player than you as being “haters”, which implies a personal bias*, only has one purpose: To shut down a debate before it happens, which I don’t know why you would want to do if you’re so certain that you are right. “You’re just a hater” doesn’t do anything to move a conversation forward and for that reason borders on being punishable by banishment.

*As far as I know the argument of bias against Geno has no basis, as what would be the reason for personal bias against him?; virtually the entire Seahawks fanbase embraced Russell Wilson for a decade so explain the difference to me in the last two years that isn’t based in football?

The same principle would apply to Justin Fields. In the city of Chicago, fans are divided between those who want to keep him and those who want to trade him and draft his replacement. Regardless of the argument you side with, boiling the other opinion down to “hater” isn’t constructive and also implies an insecurity. Opinions here are always subject to change and updates when new information comes to light.

QB Trade Market Rankings

1 - Jake Browning, Bengals

I’m shocked that the quarterback potentially on the market getting the most attention isn’t Jake Browning because he was easily in the top-half of NFL QBs in the second half of the season. Browning had the highest completion percentage in the NFL period (70.4%) for anyone with at least 240 attempts, and since taking over for Joe Burrow in Week 12 ranked sixth in pass attempts (I only say this to point out that Cincinnati didn’t dumb down or limit the offense for him), 10th in passer rating (99.1), third in Y/A (8.2), and 13th in adjusted net yards/attempt.

Even grading Browning on a curve for playing with a great coaching staff and top-tier supporting cast, the former UW Huskies quarterback’s 2023 campaign screams of someone deserving to be a Week 1 starter this year.

Remember that we live in a world where Brock Purdy started in the Super Bowl and led the NFL in many major statistical categories. If Purdy can be the overrated starter on a great team, so too can Browning. He may have even been a better NFL prospect than Purdy, with the only difference being that the 49ers made Purdy the last pick of the draft and Browning had to sign with the Vikings as a UDFA.

Had Browning been eligible for the draft after his sophomore season, he would have been drafted. He might have even gone as early as the third round, I suspect, despite lacking ideal arm strength and size for the position because he had a historically-great first two years at UW. A Bleacher Report article after UW’s appearance in the CFP predicted Browning as the final pick of the first round when he would be draft eligible a year later, while another post compared him to Aaron Rodgers; a Saints blog listed him among potential fits as the Drew Brees successor; Pete Prisco mentioned Browning right alongside Josh Allen.

I say this not to convince you that Browning is like Rodgers and Brees, but as a reminder that he wasn’t your typical undrafted free agent. Browning was at one point an elite college quarterback prior to having offseason shoulder surgery in 2017 and failed to regain his form with the Huskies after John Ross went to the NFL. It’s perfect that he’s on the Bengals because he backs up a quarterback who is hailed as an elite top-3 player even though Burrow is in some ways the version of Browning that went into the draft right after his best college season.

Burrow has Browning beat by about 1.5” in height and 10 lbs in weight, but has “small hands” and lacks ideal arm strength. If anything, Browning might also be the better athlete and they’re both 27 years old. The reason that the Bengals wouldn’t trade Browning isn’t that nobody wants him, but probably that the Bengals can’t afford to lose him: Cincinnati’s offense actually got better when Browning replaced Burrow.

Even if we can’t compare them as 1:1 last season for a number of reasons, including Burrow being limited from a calf injury, I think that Jake Browning is another recent example of “irreplaceable franchise quarterbacks” being at least slightly overrated. The stats help support what I saw, but I also don’t need the stats: When I watch Browning play, I see an NFL starter.

The only question is whether or not Cincinnati will let him be an NFL starter this year.

Browning is what’s called an Exclusive Rights Free Agent, meaning that he is not a free agent and only the Bengals have the right to sign him. Not only sign him, but sign him to a veteran minimum deal that makes Browning basically both the cheapest and arguably best backup QB in the league. Is it possible that the Bengals would let him go for the right price and to give him the opportunity to be a starter after what he did for them last season?

The best situation I can think to compare it to would be Matt Cassel in 2009. After Brady tore his ACL in Week 1 of the 2008 season, Cassel led the Patriots to an 11-5 record with decent stats.

Not wanting to lose him for nothing, New England gave Cassel the franchise tag and then traded him to the Kansas City Chiefs, along with Mike Vrabel, for a second round pick. The terms are a little unfair though, as people called it a “sweetheart deal” for Chiefs GM Scott Pioli, who had just left the Patriots to run Kansas City that same offseason. But I don’t know because the Chiefs were taking on some risk as they had to give Cassel a contract extension too, which was $62 million for a player with only one season as a starter at either the college or NFL level.

Trading for Browning would also likely entitle him to financial compensation.

Trade Compensation: 2nd round pick + Player

This is a tough one because the Bengals really aren’t motivated to trade Jake Browning at this time, other than the potential for him to become a free agent in 2025 and they lose him for nothing. Cincinnati getting a compensatory pick for Browning in 2026 would not be guaranteed. If any team offers a second round pick for Browning, could the Bengals turn that down given that he was only a practice squad player a year ago?

On the other hand, Burrow has already suffered a torn ACL, a serious calf injury, and other ailments in only four years with the team. He’s been injury prone and Browning has proven to be a really good failsafe option.

I can’t imagine that the Moons will pass on a quarterback at 2, but I could see an argument for picking the top WR and then using one of their two picks at the top of the second round (#36, #40) to take a swing on a quarterback. Browning’s 2023 OC, Brian Callahan, is now the HC of the Titans. But Tennessee seems intent on developing Will Levis and they don’t have a third round pick. Then you’ve got the Falcons, a team that might run an offense similar to Cincinnati’s because both come from the McVay tree.

For the Seahawks to make it happen, I would have to look into weaknesses on the Bengals roster and see if Seattle has available players who could help them. I know Cincinnati is expected to release Joe Mixon and that they have a huge need there, but would be hesitant to part with Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet. Given that the Seahawks also don’t have a second round pick, it also negotiations go higher than Seattle’s third round pick at #78.

What would the Seahawks need to give up for Jake Browning and who are the other QBs on my list after him: