Should Seahawks run to the podium for Kayvon Thibodeaux?
A closer look at a player whose "slide" down the board could be the result of too much noise
When it comes to the NFL Draft, it seems like these days it’s the more we know, the less we know.
I’ve been saying this for as long as I can remember but while positional value changes, what teams seek in a prospect changes, our ability to judge the quality of a football prospect seems to stay the same. Go back to 1966, the first of the Super Bowl era, and the sole Hall of Famer in the draft class was guard Tom Mack. He went second overall.
According to Pro-Football-Reference’s AV metric, Mack was the most valuable player in the draft, followed by John Niland (fifth overall pick), Doug Buffone (60th), and Tommy Nobis (first).
The 1967 NFL Draft featured a whopping seven Hall of Famers: four went in the first round, two went in the second round, and the lone steal was seventh round tackle Rayfield Wright. (Of course, back then the seventh round was more like the fourth.) There was no internet then, no NFL Network, no ESPN, and teams could barely pick a prospect’s face out of a lineup, let alone measure their GPS tracking data, and yet accuracy for good selections seems at least as good then as it does now. If not worse.
Fast forward 30 years to the 1997 draft (Orlando Pace went first, Walter Jones went sixth, Tony Gonzalez went 13th) and we have the same rate of early draft hits with zero improvement on avoiding a classic NFL bust (the Lions chose Bryant Westrbook over Jones, the Cardinals picked Tom Knight and the Falcons picked Michael Booker over Gonzalez).
This is only part of the reason that I find the entire pre-draft process to be a borderline sham, as most teams have known for months who they want to target, who they want to avoid, and where these prospects rank relative to one another.
Good prospects go early, but not all good prospects will turn into good players.
Bad prospects go late, but some bad prospects will be much better than their good peers.
And for the most part, the order of prospects will be generally correct, even if there are always snags and diamonds along the way.
One such great prospect is Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux. After the conclusion of the 2021 NFL Draft, many turned their attention to who would be the next Trevor Lawrence. But since C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young are not eligible until 2023, and no other QBs looked to be a shoo-in for the top spot, draft fans asked, “Who could be the next Myles Garrett?”
Unfortunately, as I noted earlier on Sunday, there wasn’t one of those players either. Not like Alabama’s Will Anderson and the 2023 edition.
The closest thing we had to a consensus first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft a year ago was Thibodeaux. He had the pedigree of being a five-star prospect in 2019 and then breaking off 14 tackles for a loss and nine sacks as a true freshman with the Ducks. In one five-game stretch against the Pac-12 that year, Thibodeaux totaled 6.5 sacks, 10.5 TFL, and two batted passes. He then posted another 9.5 TFL and three sacks in only seven games in 2020, giving us little reason to downgrade him at that point relative to an otherwise weak first round expectation.
Somehow though another productive season in the Pac-12 was not enough to solidify Thibodeaux’s position in the top spot and there are even rumors that he could be available to the Seattle Seahawks at nine.
Would that be the most insane “steal” of the modern draft era?
Despite many conversations that question Thibodeaux’s character, commitment, and desire to be a great football player, that wasn’t the type of talk coming out of his mouth when he found out in 2016 that he was already 247Sports’ top-ranked player in the class of 2019:
"I know I'm not the best," Thibodeaux said. "That's the mindset I carry with me 100 percent of the time."
As a 15-year-old, Thibodeaux knew what he was good at and what he needed to improve upon.
"I love the weight room, but it's not just the weight room," Thibodeaux said. "Technique is 100 percent important. I focus a lot on my feet and my hands. My main attribute is speed, so when I put that together with technique it can be unstoppable."
For fundamental reference, he focuses on one of the NFL's most dominant defenders—Houston Texans lineman J.J. Watt.
"He's not just a big guy; he's more skilled than people think," Thibodeaux said. "He's really strong but also uses his hands a lot. He's able to get around any type of offensive lineman. He can do it all, and that's what I want to be known for as a player."
Though many players who get accolades prior to their junior and/or senior seasons of high school eventually find a way to fall off, Thibodeaux never did. He has managed to keep the proverbial ball in the air for the last seven years—from top-ranked recruit out of high school to potentially being the number one pick in the NFL Draft.
Thibodeaux posted 20 sacks and 28 TFL as a junior in 2017, then 18 sacks as a senior in 2018.
Thibodeaux chose Oregon because he would have an immediate opportunity to play defensive end and rush the passer for a Power 5 program and it allowed him to stay on the west coast. He ripped through tackle after tackle to become the conference’s best pass rusher over the last three seasons, finishing with 12 tackles for a loss and seven sacks over 10 games as a college junior.
PFF’s Austin Gayle noted that only 25-percent of Thibodeaux’s career pressures came unblocked, half the rate of Georgia’s Travon Walker, another player being touted as a top-three edge rusher; that could mean that Thibodeaux will be better at the next level of creating his own havoc.
Or it could be useless noise.
Another chart from PFF shows that Thibodeaux’s career pass rush win rate in college is much better than Walker’s and slightly better than Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson. That could mean something. Or the fact that Nik Bonitto and 2019 third rounder Jaylon Ferguson both posted elite PRWR could signal that it is mostly noise, a data point that doesn’t necessarily translate to the next level.
Thibodeaux reportedly won almost a quarter of his pass rush reps, which is nearly twice as good as Walker’s and ranks sixth best among college players at a Power 5 program. To what degree does it even matter if you play at a “Power 5” school? Khalil Mack is a good player too. And the vast majority of offensive tackles at Power 5 schools will never play in an NFL game.
Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson reportedly, according to this chart, got 84-percent of his sacks/QB hurries more than 2.5 seconds after the snap. That might indicate that Johnson was earning a lot of “coverage sacks” or getting opportunities that will not come around as often at the NFL level. Thibodeaux’s rate is more evenly spread around, with only 23-percent of his sacks/hurries coming after 3.1 seconds (Johnson’s rate after 3.1 seconds: 42-percent) and nine-percent of those coming under 2 seconds (compared to 0-percent for JJIII). Does this mean something or is it taking us off the trail that would lead to Jermaine Johnson III for no good reason?
At the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine, Travon Walker stole everyone’s attention by running a 4.51 40-yard dash, a 6.89 three-cone drill, and a 4.32 short shuttle time at 6’5, 272 lbs.
But the closest thing we have to a similar athletic profile is another former Georgia pass rusher: David Pollack. Because injuries derailed Pollack’s career, we’ll never know for sure if he would have panned out. He was the 17th overall pick however, not number one.
Frank Clark posted better athletic traits and went 63rd overall, but off-field concerns pushed him down the board a bit.
Trey Hendrickson was a phenomenal big man athlete in 2017, coming out of Florida Atlantic, he didn’t come off the board until pick 103.
And Joey Bosa was remarkably close in measurables to Walker, was the third overall pick in 2016, and he’s been one of the league’s best players. He was also insanely productive at Ohio State, while Walker rarely made any noise at Georgia.
But Thibodeaux also has rare athletic traits: 6’4, 255 lbs, 34” arms, 4.58 40-yard dash, 1.56 10-yard split, 9’11 broad, 4.38 short shuttle, 7.23 three-cone. There are no questions there, though Dane Brugler mentioned in his “The Beast” scouting report that Thibodeaux needs to get bigger.
WEAKNESSES: Narrow torso, lean legs and doesn’t have an ideal build by NFL standards ... needs to add more bulk to his body ... still developing his rhythm and plan at the top of his rush ... needs to improve his finishing skills as a tackler, especially in the pocket ... flows with the action and can be late to dissect play design ... allowed running backs to separate from him when dropping in space ... plays strong, but stack-and-shed mechanics are just average ... gets himself in trouble with after-the-whistle plays and needs to play smarter overall (flagged 12 times over his career, including seven times in 2021) ... didn’t face many high-level offensive tackles in 2021 ...
Both Thibodeaux and Walker are players who need to get better as run stoppers and pass rushers at the next level, which is basically true of all prospects at the position. Who is closer to being effective in the NFL? Most say it’s Thibodeaux. Who will be further ahead when we’re talking about each individual in three years? Many say it’s Walker. I know this for sure: Neither of them are going in round three and we didn’t need a combine to prove it.
Will the extra data points help a team figure out which great prospect is more likely become a great football player in the NFL?
Which would you rather see in Seattle? Let me know in the comments!
I am convinced, so sprint, don't just run up to the podium. Thibodeaux, spelled just like it sounds, is an exciting prospect and worth the investment.
This is the deepest dive I have read on this guy, but before his slide, he wasn't expect to last to nine. If he does, then he might be the better investment than Penning at nine, but what if Evans or Icky is still on the board along with Thibodeaux? What then? Is Evans close enough to Walter Jones as worthy of that pick? Honestly, it takes a group to rush the passer, but it only takes one guy to protect the blind side. I'd take Evans over Thibodeaux.
Thibodaux has a bit of hot dog in him, but playing among NFL pros should temper that out. Unbelievably if we get him at 9.