When the resurgence of the running game happens as a whole in the NFL and is OBVIOUS as a response to the dominance of the Tampa 2 that is currently occurring and a general lack of Gronkowskis around the league THEN the running backs will have value - says all the 'the best running back in the league just isn't that valuable' guys. And the choir will sing hosannas.
Like they were riding that wave from the first sight of the swell.
Nah- while 'analytics' have their place- and they do I work with them professionally- the quantitation of performance in the individual sense is subject to many biases, MANY of them. Not least of which is 'pay no attention to what your lying eyes ACTUALLY SEE' cause you know- my math is un-impeachable and so very very correct and I'll bear no criticism of any other method- like what I actually, what WE actually witnessed.
In fact its one of the reasons I am here.
While its early in his career I have a feeling he will be a fan favorite well before EOY.
Great comment! I feel like sometimes people get too wrapped up in analysis paralysis, and think they let analytics be the "objective answer" because they want one. Truthfully, football is not baseball. It is a highly strategic game that has a much stronger influence from philosophy than baseball or even basketball. The way the Chiefs play is different from how the Bills play is different from how the Rams played is different from how Philly is playing. No one way is right, but analytics seemed to applied as the "right way" to play football. I think people miss that analytics are based on models, models that don't bear true for every situation and philosophy. Models and data are meant to be used to describe details and color-in what our eyes may have missed, not to sum up the whole system.
It has been a while since I took statistical analysis classes. But so many people take some random person that analyzes something as gospel. There is a reason why science is peer reviewed, many smart people make incorrect assumptions regarding their study or conclusions.
In baseball analytics, many things that were gospel at one time have changed over the years when better research or using the same data and just having a more logical opinion.
Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk... yes, I'm that old but those are the guys I hope KW3 emulates. They were as much of a weapon receiving as running and you never knew where the pain was coming from. Were they running backs or receivers? The answer was "yes" and they obviated the question of positional value because the only thing that mattered was getting the ball in their hands in space.
I love him and will never complain about another KW3 article. I predicted he would lead all Seahawks in jersey sales by year's end. What I didn't take into account was how good Geno was going to be or the rest of the draft class (Woolen might turn out to be that guy).
The running joke around my house on Sundays is that my missus gets your and Walker's name mixed up. It's crossed my mind to get her a #9 Arthur jersey!
I really want Walker to snap the curse of injured Seahawk runningbacks, since Marshawn. I have been watching his running like style and I have seen some dekes that other backs have not dreamed of. A larger sample size is needed and like Pete says once he learns all that is available the numbers will get better. I would have thought Johnathan Taylor would have quieted those don't draft a runninback early crowd. Talent is talent no matter the position
"Talent is talent..." Kicker Jason Hanson was drafted in the second round by Detroit and and you would have thought the world had come to an end. Twenty one years and a bunch of records later it looks like even a kicker can be worth a high draft pick because, as you said "Talent is talent no matter the position."
I gotta say I hate having to watch those reps vs Michigan (GoBlue!) lol.
A lot of the stats views of run vs pass come down to on any particular snap of the ball, the average pass will yield a higher net yards than the average run, with a higher probability of success. That is it.
If you want to "prove" a point of view there are lots of ways you can cut the data. But game of football is not like baseball where stats are seemingly the only thing that matters, because of one all-important element: time. There are certain times during a football game where you NEED to have a running game (buring clock with a lead) that can result in first downs.
And there is no model that can account for extraordinary talent--like any of the great backs and including what Walker has been his entire collegiate career and the promising start to his professional career. When the average running play has an "average net yards" that equals (or exceeds) the average net yards of a pass play, the table shifts completely. And there is one more thing.
Teams that can run the ball successfullly scare the crap out of DCs and the other players on the field. They know a run is coming, they may even know the play, and they can't do a damn thing to stop it. That 'fear factor' is something no model will ever be able to fully account for.
I'm just glad that the Seahawks drafted KW3 and that I get to cheer him on, instead of fearing playing the team he is on!
in 1999, Faulk caught 87 passes for over 1,000 yds and rushed for over 1,400 yds. Over a 12 year career the HOFer had 12,278 yds rushing and 6,875 yds receiving. Only two players in NFL history have gained over a thousand yards rushing and receiving in the same season. Faulk and Craig.
The Giants, with Barklay, and the Jets, with Hall, are sure doing a nice job running the ball and the running game is an important element in their success. Neither has an obviously great QB, though Wilson may become that in time.
I've no doubt Walker will contribute in exciting ways to the Seahawk offense, assuming he stays healthy (always the big wildcard with a RB -- really with anyone). I doubt our defense will make the team competitive this year but I'm excited to witness the growth and development of this team. Walker's likely to be a big part of that. Let's pray for a long and durable career.
I swear every one of those runs could nearly be superimposed with his big runs this year as a montage. The jump cuts and shifting of his hips to make guys miss without losing momentum is what seems to set him apart. Might also be why he ended up with a hernia, but proper core conditioning in the future will solve that. While watching those clips it almost felt like I had seen him make the exact same runs while in a Seattle uniform.
Wrong running back, but same idea. I pretty sure I heard correctly in one of Pete's recent press responses that he also would have taken Breece with the same pick (though he just said something like "that other guy that's doing pretty good right now too"). I wonder who was really higher on their list?
I couldn't believe the post draft gloom about KW3. People were like, "They already have Carson and Penny!" Carson had just had freaking next fusion surgery and everyone should have known he was likely done. Penny has still never played a full season. We had a giant need at the position and were lucky he was still on the board in my view. I just hope he can stay as healthy as you can expect a running back to.
When the resurgence of the running game happens as a whole in the NFL and is OBVIOUS as a response to the dominance of the Tampa 2 that is currently occurring and a general lack of Gronkowskis around the league THEN the running backs will have value - says all the 'the best running back in the league just isn't that valuable' guys. And the choir will sing hosannas.
Like they were riding that wave from the first sight of the swell.
Nah- while 'analytics' have their place- and they do I work with them professionally- the quantitation of performance in the individual sense is subject to many biases, MANY of them. Not least of which is 'pay no attention to what your lying eyes ACTUALLY SEE' cause you know- my math is un-impeachable and so very very correct and I'll bear no criticism of any other method- like what I actually, what WE actually witnessed.
In fact its one of the reasons I am here.
While its early in his career I have a feeling he will be a fan favorite well before EOY.
Great work.
Great comment! I feel like sometimes people get too wrapped up in analysis paralysis, and think they let analytics be the "objective answer" because they want one. Truthfully, football is not baseball. It is a highly strategic game that has a much stronger influence from philosophy than baseball or even basketball. The way the Chiefs play is different from how the Bills play is different from how the Rams played is different from how Philly is playing. No one way is right, but analytics seemed to applied as the "right way" to play football. I think people miss that analytics are based on models, models that don't bear true for every situation and philosophy. Models and data are meant to be used to describe details and color-in what our eyes may have missed, not to sum up the whole system.
It has been a while since I took statistical analysis classes. But so many people take some random person that analyzes something as gospel. There is a reason why science is peer reviewed, many smart people make incorrect assumptions regarding their study or conclusions.
In baseball analytics, many things that were gospel at one time have changed over the years when better research or using the same data and just having a more logical opinion.
Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk... yes, I'm that old but those are the guys I hope KW3 emulates. They were as much of a weapon receiving as running and you never knew where the pain was coming from. Were they running backs or receivers? The answer was "yes" and they obviated the question of positional value because the only thing that mattered was getting the ball in their hands in space.
That would be a genetic experiment worth watching
well said. I would LOVE a shiftier Roger Craig but faster to describe KW3 .
I love him and will never complain about another KW3 article. I predicted he would lead all Seahawks in jersey sales by year's end. What I didn't take into account was how good Geno was going to be or the rest of the draft class (Woolen might turn out to be that guy).
The running joke around my house on Sundays is that my missus gets your and Walker's name mixed up. It's crossed my mind to get her a #9 Arthur jersey!
I really want Walker to snap the curse of injured Seahawk runningbacks, since Marshawn. I have been watching his running like style and I have seen some dekes that other backs have not dreamed of. A larger sample size is needed and like Pete says once he learns all that is available the numbers will get better. I would have thought Johnathan Taylor would have quieted those don't draft a runninback early crowd. Talent is talent no matter the position
"Talent is talent..." Kicker Jason Hanson was drafted in the second round by Detroit and and you would have thought the world had come to an end. Twenty one years and a bunch of records later it looks like even a kicker can be worth a high draft pick because, as you said "Talent is talent no matter the position."
I gotta say I hate having to watch those reps vs Michigan (GoBlue!) lol.
A lot of the stats views of run vs pass come down to on any particular snap of the ball, the average pass will yield a higher net yards than the average run, with a higher probability of success. That is it.
If you want to "prove" a point of view there are lots of ways you can cut the data. But game of football is not like baseball where stats are seemingly the only thing that matters, because of one all-important element: time. There are certain times during a football game where you NEED to have a running game (buring clock with a lead) that can result in first downs.
And there is no model that can account for extraordinary talent--like any of the great backs and including what Walker has been his entire collegiate career and the promising start to his professional career. When the average running play has an "average net yards" that equals (or exceeds) the average net yards of a pass play, the table shifts completely. And there is one more thing.
Teams that can run the ball successfullly scare the crap out of DCs and the other players on the field. They know a run is coming, they may even know the play, and they can't do a damn thing to stop it. That 'fear factor' is something no model will ever be able to fully account for.
I'm just glad that the Seahawks drafted KW3 and that I get to cheer him on, instead of fearing playing the team he is on!
Excellent. Well said.
Additional information on KW3 vs Marshall Faulk:
Faulk - 5-10, 208lbs, 4.35 forty
KW3 - 5-9, 211lbs, 4.38 forty
in 1999, Faulk caught 87 passes for over 1,000 yds and rushed for over 1,400 yds. Over a 12 year career the HOFer had 12,278 yds rushing and 6,875 yds receiving. Only two players in NFL history have gained over a thousand yards rushing and receiving in the same season. Faulk and Craig.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvjWiW7R3-g
The Giants, with Barklay, and the Jets, with Hall, are sure doing a nice job running the ball and the running game is an important element in their success. Neither has an obviously great QB, though Wilson may become that in time.
I've no doubt Walker will contribute in exciting ways to the Seahawk offense, assuming he stays healthy (always the big wildcard with a RB -- really with anyone). I doubt our defense will make the team competitive this year but I'm excited to witness the growth and development of this team. Walker's likely to be a big part of that. Let's pray for a long and durable career.
I swear every one of those runs could nearly be superimposed with his big runs this year as a montage. The jump cuts and shifting of his hips to make guys miss without losing momentum is what seems to set him apart. Might also be why he ended up with a hernia, but proper core conditioning in the future will solve that. While watching those clips it almost felt like I had seen him make the exact same runs while in a Seattle uniform.
On the post-game HB YouTube post, Nathan Ernst thought Walker made some good runs, but still thinks RB's are interchangeable and wasn't impressed.
You had me at: https://www.seasidejoe.com/p/breece-hall-seahawks-draft-2022
Wrong running back, but same idea. I pretty sure I heard correctly in one of Pete's recent press responses that he also would have taken Breece with the same pick (though he just said something like "that other guy that's doing pretty good right now too"). I wonder who was really higher on their list?
He did say look at the other guy already doing it
Torture the data long enough and it will confess to anything.
Gonna read this entirely, but quickly stopped at the beginning:
Kenneth Walker III plays the running back position like an elite Dance Dance Revolution player
I immediately thought of Pup Pup boogey and Paw Patrol. One, its my two years go to show, and Mr. Walker is referred to as K9.
All of this has nothing to do with anything.
Also, somehow Kenneth Walker and Kenneth Arthur, there is a rhythm to saying them together.
every team going to the super bowl has a balanced attack of late.
I couldn't believe the post draft gloom about KW3. People were like, "They already have Carson and Penny!" Carson had just had freaking next fusion surgery and everyone should have known he was likely done. Penny has still never played a full season. We had a giant need at the position and were lucky he was still on the board in my view. I just hope he can stay as healthy as you can expect a running back to.