As someone who has been a superfan of Kenneth Walker III since the Seahawks drafted him, I feel happy for him and justified for myself that he’s leading all running backs in everything with the Chiefs this season. So I say without bias or bitterness that Walker hasn’t faced a good run defense all year, let alone a Seattle defense that can specifically counter his greatest strength.
If the Seahawks do not turn the ball over against Kansas City — which isn’t that likely — they should be able to beat the 5-0 Chiefs on Sunday night.
With turnovers, I still think Seattle’s defense is too well-matched against Kansas City’s offensive strengths for the outcome to be anything other than close. Walker has poisoned Chiefs’ opponents, but the Seahawks have the antidote.
How Walker changed Patrick Mahomes
The presence of a true number one running back has changed the way Andy Reid runs the offense through quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Specifically, Mahomes has seen a rise in play-action attempts from 11.4% of his passing plays in 2025 to 27.8% in 2026, and under-center calls from 8% to 27.2%.
Kansas City has ditched RPO (Run-Pass Option) for an under-center, play-action offense that has generated +0.27 EPA per pass, which ranks sixth in the NFL. Without play-action, the Chiefs are generating +0.07 EPA/pass, which is worse. Mahomes has increased his play-action completion rate from 2025 by over 17% and yards per attempt by over 3 yards per attempt.
I can’t prove that this is directly related to the addition of Walker, but it can’t hurt that he’s so much better than Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City’s two running backs last season. Hunt and Pacheco averaged 3.7 yards per carry, but Walker is averaging an NFL-best 6.3.
Walker’s 21.2 rushing attempts per game are EIGHT more per game than he had with Seattle last season and SIX more than his career-high. How long will Walker be able to sustain this pace? At this rate, Walker would have a new career-high in rushing attempts by Week 12.
Does Run Game Impact Play-Action Success?
I know about the debate regarding the run game’s impact on play-action, so let me emphasize that this is not what I’m talking about. I’m merely talking about TENDENCIES. I can’t prove a causation between Walker and play-action success, but I CAN prove that the Chiefs have completely changed their offensive identity this season.
The Chiefs are under-center 3.4 times more often this season. That’s huge. Walker being an elite running back marries two offensive strengths and therefore two objectives for any defense:
Stop Kenneth Walker III on the ground
Limit Mahomes’ ability to torch with PA passes
In a small early-season sample size, Mahomes has seen dramatic improvement on third downs this season, from 6.8 Y/A to 10.5 Y/A, and from a passer rating of 65.2 to 100.0.
Kansas City had a top-five offense every year from 2017 (the year Alex Smith was starting) to 2022, and they won two Super Bowls that way. Their defense carried them to the Super Bowl in 2023 and 2024, while the offense was below-average. But this season the Chiefs rank fifth in scoring, first in total yards, first in rushing yards, first in yards per carry, and third in net yards per pass attempt.
Mahomes was the quarterback during Kansas City’s offensive dry spell and Walker is the new guy, so it’s natural to attribute the change to him.
But Walker isn’t a superhero, he just has a superpower and Seattle has the kryptonite for it: Outside zone runs.
Outside Noise
I’ve pulled this data from NFL Pro, the league’s own analytics website.
Outside the tackles, Kenneth Walker had 59 rushing attempts for 464 yards, averaging an NFL-best 7.9 yards per carry. That’s 1.8 yards(!) better than second-place Bijan Robinson. It’s 2.5 yards better than third place.
He’s averaging +4.5 Rushing Yards Over Expected per run outside the tackles. That’s not among the best, it’s not the best…It’s more than 2x second place:
(Why are all these teams red?)
Without outside tackle runs, Kenneth Walker would not be in conversations for Offensive Player of the Year. Would he even be in Pro Bowl talks?
Inside the tackles, Walker is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks 15th. Eight running backs average at least 5.0 YPC inside the tackles, so it’s not like this is something that just every team loses steam with. Walker goes from the leading rusher by EPA OUTSIDE the tackles to 35th INSIDE the tackles.
So if your defense can limit Walker’s damage outside the tackles, the Chiefs should theoretically have an extremely frustrating day on the ground. Before we talk about Seattle’s ability to do that, let’s look at Kansas City’s first five opponents’ ability to do that.
BONUS: The Seahawks should make these 2 trades with the Colts!
The Chiefs are 5-0
Here are those five teams:
Week 1 Broncos (17th against outside tackle runs)
Week 2 Colts (26th against outside tackle runs)
Week 3 Dolphins (15th against outside tackle runs)
Week 4 Raiders (32nd against outside tackle runs)
Week 6 Chargers (12th against outside tackle runs)
The Chiefs have defeated two teams with zero wins (L.A., Miami), a team with a three-game losing streak (Las Vegas), a team that fired their GM after a 2-4 start (Indy), and the Broncos.
By yards per carry allowed, the Dolphins are the best run defense that Kansas City has faced, allowing 3.7 YPC, whereas the other four are between 4.0 and 4.9 YPC allowed. The Colts and Raiders are terrible against the run, whereas the Broncos and Chargers are just mediocre-to-bad.
Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10
For as bad as Miami is overall, they do have a good run defense under new head coach Jeff Hafley. As it so happens, the Dolphins are the only team to hold Kansas City under 150 rushing yards by keeping them to 88. And what happened?
The score was 14-10 going into the fourth quarter and 17-10 with six minutes left!
Mind you this is the DOLPHINS. Had Malik Willis not lost a fumble late in the first half, had Miami not essentially turned it over on downs three times, we could very well be talking about Kansas City’s only loss this season coming against the Dolphins. And what’s the one thing Miami can do?
Stop the run. They’re good at it. The Seahawks are GREAT at it.
Outside Tackle run defense stats
Dolphins: 4.6 yards per carry, +0.9 RYOE on outside tackle runs
Seahawks: 3.6 yards per carry, -1.01 RYOE on outside tackle runs (2nd)
The Dolphins, Broncos, and Chargers are all in the same general space for run defense outside the tackles. They’re middle of the road. Seattle’s in a different universe.
When you look at the Raiders’ run defense, they’re allowing an unbelievable +2 rushing yards over expectation PER carry on outside tackle runs. The explanation for RYOE is as simple as it sounds: If a designed run is expected to get 3 yards, the Raiders give up 5 yards—on average. That’s 32nd.
Walker had 22 carries for 177 rushing yards against Las Vegas. The Chiefs turned that into a 20-point fourth quarter and won the game.
The Seattle Seahawks RYOE on outside tackle run is -1.01, as in NEGATIVE. If a run is expected to get 3 yards, Seattle only allows 2 yards. Only the Houston Texans (-1.3 RYOE) are better.
With that information, can you see why I’m skeptical that Kenneth Walker will have a “revenge game” against the Seahawks?
Seahawks Personnel for Stopping Walker
What I would expect is that with Nick Emmanwori as a SAM linebacker (45% of his snaps this season have come from a LB alignment, while another 25% have come in the slot and 25% as an EDGE) Seattle has the speed and size advantage to contain outside tackle runs unlike most teams. Drake Thomas (ankle) missed Week 6 and his status for Week 7 is uncertain, but obviously his range for a linebacker is very valuable. Ernest Jones is one of the best in the league, and Devon Witherspoon is a top-tier tackler at corner.
Jones and Witherspoon rank 1st-2nd in “hustle” tackles this season:
“A Hustle: Defensive stops where the player covers 20+ yards of in-play distance from snap to tackle”
With talent like this on Seattle’s defense, Walker is going to face the toughest test he’s had all season—perhaps during his entire career—when it comes to hitting the edge with the ferocity and effectiveness that made him a star.
“So do the Chiefs just turn inside?”
They could, but there’s nothing special there. Kansas City is 24th in EPA per run inside the tackles and the Seahawks have Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy up in that business.
We’ve seen Kansas City struggle against arguably the worst team in the NFL when they couldn’t run the ball like usual, and that was the Dolphins. Miami’s defense is nowhere near the caliber of Mike Macdonald’s defense, so I’m really struggling to find a reason why Kenneth Walker—bless him—won’t hit a complete brick wall on Sunday.
If I’m right and that happens, then what happens to Mahomes?
Patrick Mahomes under-center, play-action
The Seahawks have been an elite defense against under-center offense, allowing just 3.6 yards per pass on those plays in 2026.
This has also translated into an elite play-action defense:
48 plays against play-action
4.6 yards per pass
0 touchdowns
46% pressure rate
-.30 EPA per pass
It helps that the Seahawks are an anomaly defense that can stop the run without loading the box, allowing Seattle to drop seven and defend the pass. Mahomes has been less effective on non-play action passes, seeing his comp% drop from 77% to 62% and his passer rating drop from 120 to 96.5.
It will be even harder for Mahomes to complete intermediate-to-deep passes (which he’s among the worst at in the NFL already) without top receiver Tyquan Thornton, who was seriously injured a couple weeks ago. In his first game without Thornton, Mahomes averaged a season-low 4.4 air yards per pass, threw ZERO deep passes, and finished with zero touchdowns/one interception.
Mahomes is 32nd in intended air yards per pass (6.1), only ranking ahead of Bo Nix.
When Nix faced Seattle’s defense, he was historically awful.
Mahomes is ridiculously dependent on Travis Kelce, a player who the Seahawks can match with Emmanwori, Jones, and Julian Love. Tight ends against the Seahawks this year:
Trey McBride had 41 yards, Hunter Henry had 26 yards, George Kittle had 24 yards, Oronde Gadsden had 36 yards, Evan Engram had 13 yards
If this game goes like the first six weeks for both teams, then the Seahawks should be able to neutralize the two most important players around Mahomes—Walker and Kelce—and force him to be successful out of situations that make him less comfortable.
And this is such an important rule for me:
Defensive Success Usually Beats Offensive Success
Like Super Bowl 48, I will always bet on great defense in any matchup.
If the Seahawks can control the perimeter and cutback lanes, force Walker inside between the tackles, they should not be gashed on the ground. If Kansas City can’t run like they did for six weeks, what do they do next? Mahomes is heavily reliant on YAC and the Seahawks are great at limiting those yards too.
This is the answer to a Super Joes question. If you want to join the weekly Q&A by upgrading to Super Joes for $10/month, do so now:
My biggest concern defensively?
Finishing off PRESSURES with SACKS. Derick Hall can’t possibly be living up to anyone’s expectations based on the contract he signed. Sumer Sports ranks him as the worst run defender among all edges this season, while his pass rush productivity hasn’t been much better.
You can be a good edge without sacks — DeMarcus Lawrence is the perfect example — but Hall isn’t it.
Mahomes may not be as dangerous as a runner as he used to be (career-lows in success rate and yards per carry) but I don’t want to see him escaping pressure, running around, and finding a play when he shouldn’t be allowed to. If you get pressure, finish it!
I expect the Chiefs to punt at least five times, whereas 7+ would be a LOT of punts…I still think we might see Kansas City punt seven or eight times on Sunday night.
Is that good enough for Seattle to win? The offense and special teams have to do their part. It can’t all be on the defense. However, I’m excited to see the Seahawks prove that even if they should have tagged and kept Kenneth Walker, they won’t be beaten by him face-to-face.
Shades of the Super Bowl Patriots and their paltry strength of schedule, collapsed like a wet noodle against the MOB:
The Chiefs have played the #31 schedule so far, .300. You can argue that since they've beaten their opponents, they'll naturally have a soft SOS and yes the 6-0 Niners are at #30 and the 5-0 Vikings at #28. But the 4-2 Broncos are at a tough #7 and the 4-2 Pats at #8. Seattle at #19, Rams at #4. Meaning, in addition to the weak running defenses SSJ is so aptly pointing out (awesome work dude!) the Chiefs opponents just haven't been very good.
So far... 😎
Unfortunately for K9, he’s an IR stint waiting to happen. He’s not cut out to be a bell cow work horse RB1. I’m glad he made it to week 7 and we can compete against him. I hope he makes it to play against the Rams and 49ers, but I would not expect it. He made it clear how disappointed he was sharing RB1 time in Seattle. KC is willing to role the dice and bet he can stay healthy for a full season and the playoffs. I have no issue with taking a pass on a player who was seeking 25+ touches a game who has had past issues playing healthy for a full season.