Yeah I think he's getting paid in the open market. I fell in love with K9 because of your newsletter, and wish we could retain him! But for the price he'll likely get (and he should expect since this will be his only significant contract of his career), I think we'll need to make some difficult decisions here.
Long-time reader, first-time commenter (that I can recall, anyway).
Mr. Schneider isn't building his 2024 or '25 roster this offseason. He's building '26, '27, and beyond, and understanding why is an important distinction between Armchair, Bad, Mediocre GMs, the "experts" on TV, and Legendary GMs, like Mr. Schneider. He doesn't pay *anyone* for how good they played last year - he's paying players to play for the next few years.
This is why the RB position has had such a decline in value in the last two decades, as the defensive line and linebacker corps across the league have gone from a single "Ray Lewis" in a generation to nearly every team having 'that guy' who can scramble your eggs if an RB isn't prepared for him. The "shelf life" of RBs has gotten much shorter as a result of the punishment.
From my position as not-a-GM-for-a-living I won't guess at the values, but at the method: Mr. Schneider is going to take what he's seen as possible for Mr. Walker to do, SB60 MVP and all, and consider that for what the next three to four years will allow him to continue to do, and offer a contract value and structure that makes sense.
Paying someone who demands otherwise is not how you become a legend as The Architect for the same team through multiple Super Bowl windows, coaches, and rosters.
See Also: Wilson, Russel; Sherman, Richard; Thomas III, Earl
I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat it again. I’m more comfortable paying K9 $11-13 million/year than I am paying $41 million/year to JSN. If you’re totally convinced JSN can repeat his monster season and want to pay him I understand. How about, I’m more comfortable paying K9 $12 million than I am paying Kupp $17 million.
I truly think the NFL is out of whack with WR salaries vs. RB salaries. I’m just not convinced JSN is 3 times as valuable as K9.
So i'm starting to tilt away from WR early in the draft, with Kupp seeming fired up to go again, the emergence of Barner as a genuine safety blanket and RZ threat & rumours of an upcoming deal for Shaheed there's plenty in place for Darnold to pass to before talking about Horton or Bobo as well.
But RB, i'm leaning more towards. JS will have a price in mind for KW3, but i expect another team will outbid us and take him away. Can JS afford that risk, well yes. Our RB draft record is pretty good and going #32 (or my prediction of low 40's after a trade down) is the perfect place to take an RB. Rookie with a recovered Charbs (his injury is the kind where we've made leaps and bounds in treatment in recent years and him to make a Wk1 start would not be that wild) to keep that 1-2 punch sounds good.
Then after paying the rookie deal JS would have $7-8mil+ to use. Take some of that into the Shaheed deal and $3-4mil could be ideal to land some depth at Edge and/or DB. It's one of the painful practicalities of the modern NFL that's RB's even the best ones are still not that irreplaceable. Especially in the way the 'Hawks are built where the Defence stars and the Offence compliments. I'm also not getting carried away over a hot finish to the year where we played a cooked SF, a defensively questionable (especially run defence) Rams when you dig into the stats, and a Pats team that was well that Pats team.
I’m wondering if they’re still going to use the tag if he won’t sign a Cook-like deal, regardless of what’s been leaked. Just looking around, I’m not seeing anyone out there who can rip 2-3 20+ yd runs or a 3rd and 17 in a must-win game; Charbs may or may not be fully back by the beginning of the season and even if he is, he isn’t Walker although he has great strengths of his own; and the draft is a crapshoot plus we don’t have that many picks this year.
And then we have a brand new OC who we want to give continuity to what has finally become a very very good running game as evidenced against playoff defenses. Take away his feature back?
Lastly, I think MacDonald loves him and I’d hate to see the beginning of a schism with Schneider over player decisions.
Gotta believe he’s coming back and this is all part of that. We have till March 3 to exercise the tag if it comes to that, and if I were Schneider I’d leak we aren’t going to use it too.
Brady Henderson felt it was a little less than 50% chance Walker returns on an extension because he will get more elsewhere. (Shaheed is slightly better than 50% chance to get an extension) I think the Seahawks will make an offer in the 3 year $31.5 million range, maybe $20 million guaranteed. He will get offered more elsewhere to be used as a workhorse back. The Seahawks will offer him RB1A and limit his carries during the season to 14-18 a game to try and roll it back and have him healthy for the playoffs. I get it, $42 million is more than $31.5 million. But if you’re going to be worked for 20-25 carries a game and don’t last one season, the guaranteed money is really the only thing that matters, which might not be as marked a difference if only $22 million of that $42 million is guaranteed. Oh, and some backs might like the idea of a greater chance of making it through the season without a major injury.
Stregically overpaying for critical components can be done and should be fine in certain situations. I think overpaying for Walker and JSN can make a lot of sense. If they are truly special and put us over the hump, gets that final edge, it's worth it.
My opinion is the Walker III was so productive in the games after the injury to Charbonnet because the way the coaching staff distributed his touches. This allowed Walker III to be not worn out or injured by season end. In other words limiting the touches throughout the season prevented from being on IR, available all season long, and was able to be strong in the post season. Sure, in the open market Kenneth Walker III will get a huge contract (which the Hawks would not match), but he then would be a featured No. 1 running back and probably would not be good to go by season's end. Certainly, he will have his money but what would his production be and how far will his team advance?
I'm sure K9 was bummed when Charbonnet went down with the ACL (they are apparently quite close) but his agent was probably stoked, as he gained a huge amount of leverage.
Given the current scenario, I see three steps for JS to regain leverage and field the best team in 2026 (presuming the Hawks get little to no production out of Charbs for most of 2026 but that he shows something towards the end of the year)
1. Tag K9
2. Spend a late round pick in 2026 or 2027 on an RB/bring in a cheap free agent on a two year deal
3. Extend one of K9/Charbonnet after 2026 season.
I would think signing a big, backloaded K9 deal in 2026 would negatively impact the Hawks' flexibility in 2027 given the presumed Big Cat, JSN, and Spoon extensions. I would love to see an analysis of how those deals will impact the cap in 2027 and 2028.
My sense is that Walker may be hitting his stride now, and therefore might be worth a Tag. He runs better now. I think he's understanding how to run with this OL in front of him in a wide zone mode. Patient, not always bouncing outside, good cuts in the hole, fast, doesn't fumble, home run ability, etc.
This is an interesting offseason for RBs. In addition to K9, you've got Breece Hall and Travis Etienne looking for new deals. I suspect that Pete and John had Hall ranked very high (possibly ahead of K9) on their draft board, too, based on Pete's comments later in their rookie season. Is JS waiting to see the market comparison between these guys?
I love K9, and I hope he's a Seahawks next season, but if Etienne (or whoever) is half the cost then I can't fault JS for going that direction instead. It's just not what I would do. It's hard to imagine we pay K9 a top of the market contract and then put him back into the same part-time role. Personally, I think he's worth the risk and we should pay the man and give him the lead back role. If he gets hurt and it all falls to pieces, then so be it, but now is the time to go all in on another championship season. If we're paying for it in 2028 but have two or three Super Bowl rings, I don't care.
Great article. It covers the situation well. On the poll, I wish it included, “Let him test the market, then make a counteroffer.” That’s my expectation.
What we don’t know (yet) is how much value other GMs are putting on RBs today. And this doesn’t include the value from GMs who already pay big RB contracts. The other teams also have seen the overall production and the recent surge and award and know that he’s potentially overvalued at the moment.
If a bad team offers a good contract, JS can roughly match it. If a good team offers a great contract, Ken gets paid somewhere else.
It’s a gamble, but then JS would be essentially negotiating with the other GMs. Make an offer before free agency, and you’re negotiating with Walker’s agent, who has got to be asking for the moon.
Yeah I think he's getting paid in the open market. I fell in love with K9 because of your newsletter, and wish we could retain him! But for the price he'll likely get (and he should expect since this will be his only significant contract of his career), I think we'll need to make some difficult decisions here.
Long-time reader, first-time commenter (that I can recall, anyway).
Mr. Schneider isn't building his 2024 or '25 roster this offseason. He's building '26, '27, and beyond, and understanding why is an important distinction between Armchair, Bad, Mediocre GMs, the "experts" on TV, and Legendary GMs, like Mr. Schneider. He doesn't pay *anyone* for how good they played last year - he's paying players to play for the next few years.
This is why the RB position has had such a decline in value in the last two decades, as the defensive line and linebacker corps across the league have gone from a single "Ray Lewis" in a generation to nearly every team having 'that guy' who can scramble your eggs if an RB isn't prepared for him. The "shelf life" of RBs has gotten much shorter as a result of the punishment.
From my position as not-a-GM-for-a-living I won't guess at the values, but at the method: Mr. Schneider is going to take what he's seen as possible for Mr. Walker to do, SB60 MVP and all, and consider that for what the next three to four years will allow him to continue to do, and offer a contract value and structure that makes sense.
Paying someone who demands otherwise is not how you become a legend as The Architect for the same team through multiple Super Bowl windows, coaches, and rosters.
See Also: Wilson, Russel; Sherman, Richard; Thomas III, Earl
I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat it again. I’m more comfortable paying K9 $11-13 million/year than I am paying $41 million/year to JSN. If you’re totally convinced JSN can repeat his monster season and want to pay him I understand. How about, I’m more comfortable paying K9 $12 million than I am paying Kupp $17 million.
I truly think the NFL is out of whack with WR salaries vs. RB salaries. I’m just not convinced JSN is 3 times as valuable as K9.
So i'm starting to tilt away from WR early in the draft, with Kupp seeming fired up to go again, the emergence of Barner as a genuine safety blanket and RZ threat & rumours of an upcoming deal for Shaheed there's plenty in place for Darnold to pass to before talking about Horton or Bobo as well.
But RB, i'm leaning more towards. JS will have a price in mind for KW3, but i expect another team will outbid us and take him away. Can JS afford that risk, well yes. Our RB draft record is pretty good and going #32 (or my prediction of low 40's after a trade down) is the perfect place to take an RB. Rookie with a recovered Charbs (his injury is the kind where we've made leaps and bounds in treatment in recent years and him to make a Wk1 start would not be that wild) to keep that 1-2 punch sounds good.
Then after paying the rookie deal JS would have $7-8mil+ to use. Take some of that into the Shaheed deal and $3-4mil could be ideal to land some depth at Edge and/or DB. It's one of the painful practicalities of the modern NFL that's RB's even the best ones are still not that irreplaceable. Especially in the way the 'Hawks are built where the Defence stars and the Offence compliments. I'm also not getting carried away over a hot finish to the year where we played a cooked SF, a defensively questionable (especially run defence) Rams when you dig into the stats, and a Pats team that was well that Pats team.
I’m wondering if they’re still going to use the tag if he won’t sign a Cook-like deal, regardless of what’s been leaked. Just looking around, I’m not seeing anyone out there who can rip 2-3 20+ yd runs or a 3rd and 17 in a must-win game; Charbs may or may not be fully back by the beginning of the season and even if he is, he isn’t Walker although he has great strengths of his own; and the draft is a crapshoot plus we don’t have that many picks this year.
And then we have a brand new OC who we want to give continuity to what has finally become a very very good running game as evidenced against playoff defenses. Take away his feature back?
Lastly, I think MacDonald loves him and I’d hate to see the beginning of a schism with Schneider over player decisions.
Gotta believe he’s coming back and this is all part of that. We have till March 3 to exercise the tag if it comes to that, and if I were Schneider I’d leak we aren’t going to use it too.
On Twitter/X they say Elon want to buy the Hawks.
Brady Henderson felt it was a little less than 50% chance Walker returns on an extension because he will get more elsewhere. (Shaheed is slightly better than 50% chance to get an extension) I think the Seahawks will make an offer in the 3 year $31.5 million range, maybe $20 million guaranteed. He will get offered more elsewhere to be used as a workhorse back. The Seahawks will offer him RB1A and limit his carries during the season to 14-18 a game to try and roll it back and have him healthy for the playoffs. I get it, $42 million is more than $31.5 million. But if you’re going to be worked for 20-25 carries a game and don’t last one season, the guaranteed money is really the only thing that matters, which might not be as marked a difference if only $22 million of that $42 million is guaranteed. Oh, and some backs might like the idea of a greater chance of making it through the season without a major injury.
“Walker doesn’t fumble…”
Specifically, three fumbles in 58 games across four seasons. (Compare to fan favorite Chris Carson, who had 12 fumbles in 49 games.)
Fumbles/game ratio:
Walker 1/19
Carter 1/4
As far as the POLL goes : Only a Reasonable amount which "could" be acceptable for both sides.
Stregically overpaying for critical components can be done and should be fine in certain situations. I think overpaying for Walker and JSN can make a lot of sense. If they are truly special and put us over the hump, gets that final edge, it's worth it.
My hope is the Hawks are taking the option or at least considering the option to allow K9 to test the market then match any offers.
No fumbles. Running based football team. Invest in what you say you want to be.
Bottomline, K9 is a very good football player. Bring him back!
"invest in what you say you want to be."
Well put, Mike McD. You're a worthy stand-in voice for your namesake.
My opinion is the Walker III was so productive in the games after the injury to Charbonnet because the way the coaching staff distributed his touches. This allowed Walker III to be not worn out or injured by season end. In other words limiting the touches throughout the season prevented from being on IR, available all season long, and was able to be strong in the post season. Sure, in the open market Kenneth Walker III will get a huge contract (which the Hawks would not match), but he then would be a featured No. 1 running back and probably would not be good to go by season's end. Certainly, he will have his money but what would his production be and how far will his team advance?
I'm sure K9 was bummed when Charbonnet went down with the ACL (they are apparently quite close) but his agent was probably stoked, as he gained a huge amount of leverage.
Given the current scenario, I see three steps for JS to regain leverage and field the best team in 2026 (presuming the Hawks get little to no production out of Charbs for most of 2026 but that he shows something towards the end of the year)
1. Tag K9
2. Spend a late round pick in 2026 or 2027 on an RB/bring in a cheap free agent on a two year deal
3. Extend one of K9/Charbonnet after 2026 season.
I would think signing a big, backloaded K9 deal in 2026 would negatively impact the Hawks' flexibility in 2027 given the presumed Big Cat, JSN, and Spoon extensions. I would love to see an analysis of how those deals will impact the cap in 2027 and 2028.
By then the cap will blow up. I think I've heard new TV deals are supposed to make it even bigger...
My sense is that Walker may be hitting his stride now, and therefore might be worth a Tag. He runs better now. I think he's understanding how to run with this OL in front of him in a wide zone mode. Patient, not always bouncing outside, good cuts in the hole, fast, doesn't fumble, home run ability, etc.
This is an interesting offseason for RBs. In addition to K9, you've got Breece Hall and Travis Etienne looking for new deals. I suspect that Pete and John had Hall ranked very high (possibly ahead of K9) on their draft board, too, based on Pete's comments later in their rookie season. Is JS waiting to see the market comparison between these guys?
I love K9, and I hope he's a Seahawks next season, but if Etienne (or whoever) is half the cost then I can't fault JS for going that direction instead. It's just not what I would do. It's hard to imagine we pay K9 a top of the market contract and then put him back into the same part-time role. Personally, I think he's worth the risk and we should pay the man and give him the lead back role. If he gets hurt and it all falls to pieces, then so be it, but now is the time to go all in on another championship season. If we're paying for it in 2028 but have two or three Super Bowl rings, I don't care.
Great article. It covers the situation well. On the poll, I wish it included, “Let him test the market, then make a counteroffer.” That’s my expectation.
What we don’t know (yet) is how much value other GMs are putting on RBs today. And this doesn’t include the value from GMs who already pay big RB contracts. The other teams also have seen the overall production and the recent surge and award and know that he’s potentially overvalued at the moment.
If a bad team offers a good contract, JS can roughly match it. If a good team offers a great contract, Ken gets paid somewhere else.
It’s a gamble, but then JS would be essentially negotiating with the other GMs. Make an offer before free agency, and you’re negotiating with Walker’s agent, who has got to be asking for the moon.