Kyle see you again
The Seahawks were actually built specifically to beat the 49ers
The Seahawks and 49ers literally could not have had a bigger gap between games in the regular season and Seattle could not re-play a team in quicker succession than back-to-back contests against San Francisco. Yes, it’s the Seattle Seahawks hosting the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday for the right to go to the NFC Championship.
The Seahawks will have had 13 days off. The 49ers will get 5.
Before he became the head coach of the Seahawks, Mike Macdonald was dubbed “the Shanahan tree killer” by Gregg Rosenthal. These are the moments that Macdonald was HIRED FOR two years ago.
The last time the 49ers made the Super Bowl in 2023, Macdonald’s Ravens held San Francisco to 19 points (12 before Brock Purdy went to the bench) and forced a season-worst 5 turnovers by SF
In the Seahawks-Niners rematch last year, the Niners had 277 yards and 17 points
The 49ers scored 20 points in eight quarters against Seattle this season, including the worst night of Kyle Shanahan’s head coaching career when the number one seed was on the line (and the Niners were at home)
Now to be fair to Shanahan, these games have been a square fight and exciting spectacles for anyone who isn’t on the losing end: The series is tied 2-2 since Seattle hired Shanahan’s would-be assassin.
No team put more total yards or rushing yards on Macdonald in 2024 than the 49ers in Week 6. Only two teams had more yards, first down, and EPA against the Seahawks defense than San Francisco did in their Week 1 win this season.
Conversely, it was the Seahawks who broke the 49ers in Week 11 last season, starting a catastrophe that saw San Francisco lose seven of their last eight games. And no team has ever held Shanahan’s Niners to fewer points, yards, or first downs than Seattle did last week.
Now we get Round 5.
But if Macdonald was sent back from the future to stop the apoKylepse, he couldn’t do it alone. In The Terminator, Kyle Reese needs Sarah Connor. In this timeline, Mike Macdonald needed Samah Darnnorld.
Mac-Klint Lock!
I trust Macdonald’s schematics, I have confidence in the players that John Schneider has acquired since last year like Ernest Jones, Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence, and Byron Murphy…Even so, it is just a coincidence that Seattle’s staff and starting quarterback had more behind-the-scenes shots of the 49ers than the documentary that I keep getting ads for on AMC+?
It’s possible that intel doesn’t even help, but it’s hard to imagine that any opposing team is more linked into the 49ers than the Seahawks:
Klint Kubiak and 49ers OC Klay Kubiak are brothers
Klint was the 49ers pass game coordinator in 2023
Sam Darnold was Brock Purdy’s backup in 2023
John Benton was Shanahan’s OL coach from 2017-2020
RGC Rick Dennison replaced Shanahan as Texans OC in 2010
Justin Outten was an intern for Shanahan in 2016
Aden Durde was also on the Falcons staff in 2016
LB coach Kirk Olivadotti was on same staff as Shanahan in 2010
TEs coach Mack Brown worked for Robert Saleh’s Jets 2021-2023
Not only did Dennison replace Shanahan in 2010, he’s as intertwined with the Shanahan coaching tree as the Kubiaks except that his kids aren’t football coaches.
On Durde, his mentor is Dan Quinn, who hired Shanahan as Atlanta’s offensive coordinator in 2015 and has a first-hand account of his development as a coach and tendencies as a play-caller. Shanahan cited Quinn as the one guy he’d follow anywhere once he became a head coach.
Benton’s working relationship with Shanahan goes back to 2006, coming up together as assistant coaches on Gary Kubiak’s Texans.
On Kubiak, Darnold, and Purdy, the three couldn’t have worked more closely together in 2023 if they had been sleeping Grandpa Joe style at night.
And just when you thought Saleh would’ve skipped the line because he wasn’t coaching for Shanahan at the time, Brown was actually a defensive assistant for Saleh on the Jets. He knows what Saleh is like as a direct boss.
Conversely, Shanahan’s staff shouldn’t know that much about the Seahawks operations aside from Kubiak and Darnold.
Coaches like Saleh and Gus Bradley were in Seattle over a decade ago and working for Pete Carroll. Same goes for former players K.J. Wright and Greg Scruggs, both assistants on Shanahan’s staff…the most relevant experience for Wright would be that he had a Seahawks podcast last year.
The fact that Macdonald is a relatively young head coach who has only ever worked for a Harbaugh keeps him somewhat mysterious. So does having a work history with someone help you beat them in sports? I don’t know—that’s an assumption that goes above my pay grade.
But how about some of this circumstantial evidence instead?
2025 improvements: Shanahan has faced the Seahawks 19 times as a head coach
In Week 18, 3 points and 173 yards was the fewest by the 49ers in Shanahan’s entire career.
In Week 1, 17 points was the 5th-fewest by a Shanahan team against Seattle out of 19 games
Week 1 was only the second time a Shanahan QB* threw multiple interceptions against Seattle
*out of Mullens, Garoppolo, Hoyer, Beathard, Lance, and Purdy
Actually, last season Purdy had the best game that a 49ers/Shanahan QB has ever had against Seattle (3 TD/0 INT, 129.3 rating) and it happened on a Thursday. But…since that game, Purdy has faced the Macdonald defense three times and has thrown at least one interception in every start. Total:
3 TD, 4 INT, 6 sacks, 100 pass attempts, 563 yards, 5.6 yards per attempt
Though Purdy is completing a high percentage of his throws, he’s obviously not able to throw past the sticks against Seattle. Week 18 was the worst game by either Purdy or Mac Jones all season—by far—and per Next Gen Stats it’s the only time in 2025 that a Niners QB didn’t even attempt a 20-yard pass.
Purdy went 15-of-20 on short (under 10 air yards) throws, but averaged a season-worst 3.3 yards per attempt on those passes. Macdonald’s defense snuffed out pretty much everything that Shanahan tried to do last week and this video by Legion of 12s explains a bit of how Seattle did that; essentially, the Seahawks are able to stop the run despite not having a numbers advantage in the box because Byron Murphy is so good and Seattle’s second-level has been coached to perfectly hit their run fits and tackle.
Leaving the Seahawks a massive advantage in their secondary.
Against NO blitz, Purdy had a season-low 61.4 passer rating in Week 18. And McCaffrey had a season-low 23 rushing yards despite facing a high rate of light boxes and the second-lowest rate of stacked boxes that the Niners had seen all year; Week 1 was the third-lowest rate of stacked boxes and McCaffrey had 3.1 yards per carry.
Is it just a fluke that the 49ers haven’t been good against the Seahawks lately? Probably not.
This is not a coincidence
The 49ers scored at least 21 points in THIRTEEN STRAIGHT GAMES against the Seahawks dating from 2018 to the first matchup in 2024. However, Macdonald’s defense has now held the 49ers to 17, 17, and 3 in their most recent three meetings, an average of 12.3 points per game.
Does it matter that the Seahawks have overhauled their coaching staff since 2024 and coincidentally (or intentionally) tapped into more people who know Shanahan and Purdy — doubling-down in 2025 with Kubiak/Darnold — behind the scenes? I don’t know but Purdy’s last three games against the Seahawks are the three-worst he’s ever had against Seattle, a team he posted a career-high Y/A game against in 2023.
Did Seahawks have offensive awakening last week?
A team can’t be overly confident after only scoring 13 points, but the Seahawks did leave 6 points on the field from missed field goals by Jason Myers and possibly 3-7 more from mistakes they made at the goal line on the opening drive. But we can leave IFs out of last week’s win:
Seattle’s 39 rushing attempts and 180 rushing yards is the most they’ve ever had against Shanahan’s 49ers
Seattle’s 37:48 time of possession is the best they’ve ever had against Shanahan
Seattle’s 5.39 yards per play is the 4th-best mark against Shanahan and 2 of the 3 better games came in 2018 when the Niners went 4-12
Seattle’s 361 total yards is the second-most against Shanahan, again only behind a game from 2018.
Sure, Darnold’s stat line wasn’t thrilling but there were a few reasons for optimism: 20-of-26 passing, only 2 sacks taken, and most importantly ZERO interceptions. The Seahawks are 6-2 against Shanahan when they don’t turn over the ball compared to 2-1 when they turn it over once and 2-6 when they turn it over multiple times.
Is 180 rushing yards against the 49ers a fluke too? Probably not.
The Eagles had 140 rushing yards on Sunday: That’s more rushing yards allowed by San Francisco than Seattle has allowed in any of their last NINE games. The Seahawks had 180 rushing yards: That’s more rushing yards than Seattle has allowed in any of their last TWENTY-EIGHT games!
The 49ers have allowed 4+ yards per carry 13 times this season. The Seahawks have allowed 4+ yards per carry 6 times.
So while a 150-yard game by Purdy could be a bad sign for San Francisco, a 150-yard game by Darnold is probably the goal for Seattle: If Darnold doesn’t have any turnovers, he doesn’t need any downfield throws. Because based on the two run defenses, the Seahawks should still win by 20 without any passing heroics.
Yes, by 20.
Could the 49ers win this game? Obviously! But the sentiment I’ve seen that this is the game that the Niners wanted…
Is overlooking the fact that the Seahawks are the team that the Niners have wanted for the last eight days.
But the 49ers are the matchup that the Seahawks have been hoping to have in this exact situation for nearly two years.
I’ve commented several times recently about the affect of turnovers on Seahawks success. Most recently I predicted if Darnold keeps turnover to 0 or 1 in the next three games, the Seahawks win the Super Bowl. I’m glad to see the statistical evidence backs this up. We can only beat ourselves, and the most likely culprit will be turnovers. Other stats I’m hoping to see from this game are 150+ rushing yards from the Hawks, and 110 or less from the 49ers. Two turnovers by the 49ers, and one big special teams play by the Seahawks. If we hit those, we win by at least 17 points.
They get back Trent Williams and possibly pearsall, but lose kittle for potentially next year as well. Gotta feel bad for kittle, he's such a good player when not hurt. But he might be more important to their offense than even Trent given all of the things he does both in the run and pass game. We held them to 3 last time, can we improve on that and zero them out?