MacDonald packed his DEFENSE

🔎SEAHAWKS HAVE BETTER DEFENSE THAN RAVENS

The Seahawks hired Mike Macdonald over other candidates for various reasons but the deciding factor boiled down to the most simple explanation: Great at Football.

Teams covet “dominance” when they interview candidates in a head coach search, whether that means ranking first in the NFL in offense or defense, and Macdonald was atop the food chain* because the Ravens moved up to the number one defense under his guidance.

*other than Jim Harbaugh

“Moving Up” is the important part because despite the franchise’s strong defensive reputation, Baltimore’s defense was really bad the year before Macdonald replaced Wink Martindale as the coordinator:

• The Ravens improved from 19th in scoring defense to 3rd

• From 30th in passing TDs allowed to 5th

• From 23rd in defensive EPA to 11th

QBs had 31 touchdowns and 9 interceptions against Martindale’s last defense to 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions against Macdonald’s first run in 2022. The next year, those numbers were at 18 TDs allowed and 18 passes intercepted, the best pass defense in the NFL.

The Seahawks probably didn’t expect to get the 2023 version of Macdonald’s Ravens defense so soon (and they’re not), but the 2022 version that was still among the league’s best is starting to show itself as the defense is LITERALLY CARRYING the offense and special teams into an NFC West playoff hunt.

^^Not even the full picture of what Leonard Williams has done recently^^

You hire the person, not the scheme

Though Macdonald’s scheme is what people talk about, football is still a chess game between opposing coaches and players trying to fool each other into thinking they know what the opponent is going to do next. Get them to guess wrong, and then execute, you practically can’t lose…

Unless…

You fumble three kickoffs in one game. And fail to get any points from running eight straight plays inside the other team’s 4-yard line.

So teams really need to hire coaches who know what to do next, not who know what happened last. We all know what happened last and that’s why anybody can copy a scheme, but so many of the same coaches end up in the playoffs every year despite so many copycats.

And Macdonald has quite a few of those already.

• The Ravens replaced Macdonald with DC Zach Orr

• The Dolphins hired DC Anthony Weaver from Baltimore

• The Titans hired DC Dennard Wilson from Baltimore

• The Chargers hired DC Jesse Minter from Michigan/Baltimore

These teams may still feel fine or even good about these hires (the Chargers have the #1 scoring defense), but is anybody feeling the impact of a defensive coordinator change more than the Seahawks are right now? Or more than the Ravens, but in the opposite direction?

These are just stats and they aren’t based on a full season yet, but the comparisons in Seattle and Baltimore from 2023 to 2024 warrant mention because the implication on both sides is that Mike Macdonald is great at playing football chess.

Macdonald’s last Ravens defense to Orr’s first:

• 1st in points allowed (16.5) to 24th (24.5)

• 1st in yards per play (4.6) to 13th (5.4)

• 1st in net yards per pass vs (4.7) to 22nd (6.5)

• 3rd in interceptions (18) to 16th (7)

• 2nd in TD passes vs (18) to 30th (23)

• 1st in rushing TD vs (6) to 14th (11)

• 3rd in scoring% vs (28.7%) to 24th (42.7%)

• 1st in expected points added (113.76) to 24th (-72.4)

• 5th in turnover% (14.4%) to 25th (7.7%)

• 1st in takeaways (31) to 22nd (11)

• 2nd in fumbles recovered (13) to 23rd (4)

• 7th on third down (36.4%) to 25th (42.9%)

• 2nd in the red zone (40.8%) to 17th (56.1%)

The Ravens have dropped from a top-3 team in almost every key defensive category to a defense that ranks bottom-10 in almost every important category.

But Baltimore tells on themselves even more by game results:

• 2023: 4 teams scored 23+ against the Ravens

• 2024: 10 teams have scored 23+ against the Ravens

• 2023: 1 300-yard passer allowed (308 net yards)

• 2024: 5 300-yard passers allowed (high: 421 net yards)

The Ravens have dropped from 1st in points per drive allowed to 24th. Baltimore is still third in sacks (41) after leading the league last season (60) and star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike has gone from 13 sacks to 5…which seems like a good number but three of those sacks came in a single game against Joe Burrow so that’s two sacks in his other 12.

That point is more relevant when you factor in the dominant play of Leonard Williams for Seattle this season and he’s been a far more consistent player than Madubuike, at least on the stats sheet. I can’t speak to the film*, but I can speak to witnessing Williams’ recent dominance and recalling that nine months ago, the Ravens paid Madubuike $24.5m AAV and the Seahawks paid Williams $21.5m AAV.

*I asked our friend All-22 about Madubuike and he said at times he looks similar to last season but that he’s not consistently having the same impact

Pete’s last Seahawks D to Macdonald’s first:

• 25th in points allowed (23.6) to 12th (22.1)

• 24th in yards per play (5.5) to 13th (5.4)

• 22nd in net yards per pass vs (6.3) to 10th (5.9)

• 19th in interceptions (11) to 9th (11)

• 10th in TD passes vs (21) to 16th (17)

• 31st in rushing TD vs (24) to 10th (10)

• 28th in scoring% vs (40.4%) to 7th (32.8%)

• 30th in expected points added (-122.46) to 10th (+0.40)

• 21st in turnover% (10.4%) to 17th (9.5%)

• 22nd in takeaways (19) to 17th (13)

• 23rd in fumbles recovered (8) to 23rd (4)

• 30th on third down (46.3%) to 17th (38.4%)

• 23rd in the red zone (59.6%) to 14th (53.5%)

Every Seahawks fan might agree that having an average defense FEELS LIKE having the number one defense compared to where Seattle has been the past 6-7 seasons. And in their past four games, the Seahawks are allowing 300 yards per game (4th-best in that time), 3.4 yards per carry (4th-best), and 17.5 points per game (5th-best).

Game results:

• 2023: 9 teams scored 23+ against the Seahawks

• 2024: 5 teams have scored 23+ against the Seahawks

• 2023: 4 300-yard passer allowed (high: 354 net yards)

• 2024: 0 300-yard passers allowed (high: 298 net yards)

To compete for a Super Bowl championship, the Seahawks still need to super-charge one of the league’s worst offenses and can’t continue to give their opponents so many free points and opportunities with special teams.

But the Seahawks trending towards having 2025’s best defense got more confirmation with Seattle’s latest win.

Seaside Joe 2902