Malik Willis could be available to Seahawks on Day 2

No quarterback in the 2022 draft has a day one guarantee

Seaside Joe readers know that in my recent chat with Rob Staton, he mentioned that former NFL GM Scot McCloughan told him that no quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft has higher than a third round grade. McCloughan also mentioned to Rob that he still expected three quarterbacks to go in the first round, based on conversations around the league, but that they’d likely not be selected until the latter half of day one.

Even though recent mock drafts have Liberty quarterback Malik Willis going anywhere from two (Detroit Lions) to nine (Seattle Seahawks) in the top-10, we also know from a recent Seaside Joe article that Willis’s rise into the first round didn’t even begin to happen until February. The last time that Willis was considered to be a consensus second round pick was less than two months ago.

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Where will Malik Willis land?

However, many would now call it “ludicrous” to suggest that the Seahawks, or any other team, could draft Willis in the second round. I am yet to be convinced that any quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft is a guaranteed first round pick. Willis could drop as far as the third round. There is a clear precedent for horribly over-estimated draft values on quarterbacks in past mock drafts and Willis could be next.

3 things the Seahawks SHOULD NOT DO with their 1st round pick in 2022

In 2013, the worst NFL draft class of the last decade, headlined by the obvious dearth of quarterback talent, E.J. Manuel was the only first rounder at the position. But days before the draft, an NFL.com writer posited that the eighth overall pick would be…

Ryan Nassib.

Nassib, older brother of Carl Nassib, ended up as a fourth round pick of the Giants. The since-nameless NFL.com writer was off by 102 picks. He also projected that Matt Barkley would go 33rd, and that prediction was off by 65 selections. The writer also said that Arizona quarterback Matt Scott would go in the third round, 74th overall, to the 49ers.

Scott wasn’t drafted.

The writer’s Zac Dysert projection was off by 134 selections.

It’s hard for whoever that person was to be ashamed though given that this is a common theme you will find with the especially unpredictable 2013 quarterback class, the class that should be most often compared to the group in front of us in 2022. Want to know what the 2022 QB class “is like” then you should shoot your attention directly to the Geno Smith, Manuel, Barkley class of 2013.

WalterFootball mocked Geno Smith to the Browns at 6th overall, but Smith ended up going 35th to the New York Jets. They also had Nassib going eighth, in case you thought that there was just one “kooky analyst” who snuck into NFL.com and made that epically incorrect projection.

Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, now a (colleague? rival?) at Substack, had Geno Smith going second overall to the Jaguars. Interestingly, Miller’s apprehension to support the selection of Smith was overridden by the pressure to do what everyone else was doing at the time:

Geno Smith would not be my pick at No. 2 overall, but the Jaguars haven't called for my opinion—not yet, at least. Were the pick mine, Oregon's Dion Jordan would be shopping for homes in Jacksonville next weekend.

In a crop of weak quarterbacks, Smith is far above the competitors. But if you asked me to stake my job security on his ability to play quarterback in the NFL, I'd pass. 

Isn’t this sort of the same exact sentiment shared on 2022’s crop with Willis, Kenny Pickett, and Matt Corral?

It’s also important to note that Miller mocked Nassib 41st overall to the Bills, signifying that there was no consensus first round quarterback in the 2013 draft. This is not something we can say about any other first round between 2014-2021 but it is 100-PERCENT true of 2022. You can find plenty of people who do not believe that Willis, Pickett, and/or Corral and/or Sam Howell and/or Desmond Ridder are first round picks.

Going back to 2013, SB Nation’s Matthew Fairburn mocked Geno to the Jaguars at 2. He didn’t have a single other quarterback in the first round. His second-ranked quarterback was Arkansas’ Tyler Wilson. SB Nation’s Dan Kadar on the other hand had Smith going FIRST overall to the Chiefs, Barkley SEVENTH overall, and Mike Glennon going EIGHTH overall.

A moment of silence for Dan.

Of course, “horribly wrong mock drafts” is nothing exclusive to 2013.

In 2014, it was common to see Johnny Manziel in the top-three, but he went 22nd. Miller had Teddy Bridgewater going third overall, but he went 32nd. SI’s Chris Burke felt Bridgewater would go first overall. Manziel “slipped” to fourth. Fairburn argued that no, Blake Bortles would be the first overall pick. He was the closest. Bortles went third.

A lot of 2014 drafts thought that three or four quarterbacks could go in the top-eight. Bortles was the only QB who went in the top-20, while Manziel went 22nd, Bridgwater went 32nd, Derek Carr went 36th, and Jimmy Garoppolo went 62nd.

In 2015, it was easy to project Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota as the top-two picks, and few writers deviated from the script. In 2016, that became Jared Goff and Carson Wentz after the Rams and Eagles had traded up weeks before the draft.

In 2017, Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, and Deshaun Watson were regularly mocked in the top-20 picks. What people may forget is that DeShone Kizer was often side-by-side with those quarterbacks but instead of going in the top-15, he went 52nd to the Browns.

Nobody could guess the order of the 2018 draft quarterbacks, but everyone could identify that it would be a quarterback-heavy first round. In 2019, the Cardinals made it apparent to everyone early on that they were going to draft Kyler Murray. But Miller’s mock had Drew Lock going 10th, even though he went 42nd. He wasn’t alone in that thinking.

Pointing these things out is never to disparage Miller, Fairburn, or the mock draft writers. It’s to make it clear to everyone who believes wholeheartedly that Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, and/or Desmond Ridder will be first round picks, there is no such clarity.

Given that it is late March, it’s even harder to believe that anyone could think that Willis is guaranteed to go on day one.

There are years, like in 2020 and 2021, when literally everyone agrees that the top-ranked quarterbacks will go somewhere in the top-10, we just don’t know the order.

Then there are years like 2022, when the projections never seem to follow any line of thinking other than the motivation to “be right” in a sea where the standard is to be different, but not too different.

And especially not different when it comes to exciting quarterback prospects.

But as I sit here at the end of March, I can’t find any evidence that should make an NFL draft fan believe that Malik Willis is a first round pick. Or Pickett or Corral or Ridder. If Sam Howell is considered to be a day two pick that maybe leaps into the end of the first round, why isn’t Willis or Pickett? Nobody’s resume has stood out.

The closest example of any quarterback class to compare to 2022’s in February, March would have to be the 2013 class of Nassib, Barkley, Manuel, Geno, and Dysert. That’s the last time there was this much volatility in mocks and such a disconnect between the pre-draft narratives and the actual resumes of the quarterbacks.

So why couldn’t the Seahawks wait until Day 2 to find out if Willis is available at picks 40, 41, or even pick 72? I don’t see why if McCloughan has a third round grade on Willis that he couldn’t be a third rounder. All McCloughan’s ever done is help build the 2005 Seahawks Super Bowl roster, the nucleus of the 2012 49ers Super Bowl roster, and the 2013-2014 Seahawks Super Bowl rosters.

He was also working for San Francisco in 2005, when the 49ers picked Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers. Many smart football people would’ve bet their cars that Rodgers would be the first overall pick, but he went 22nd.

Two things that I think everybody can agree on is that the 2023 quarterback class is UNBELIEVABLE with Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud currently on top, and that the true talent of the 2022 class is a crop of non-QB position players who could change the outlook of a team’s offensive line or defense. Keep in mind that the 2021 NFL Draft was deeply affected by the NCAA’s decision to give an extra year of eligibility to student-athletes and that caused a lot of players to return to school over the draft. That left 2021 with a shallow talent pool but has given 2022 an abundance of options.

Unfortunately, those options did not include any first round quarterbacks. No college QBs who went back for another year got that much better, and as a matter of fact most hurt their stock. Players who started the season as potential first round picks like Kedon Slovis, Spencer Rattler, and Phil Jurkovec all fell out of favor entirely, while Howell had a similar fall but decided to test out the draft anyway.

But I think the most important piece of evidence we have that the NFL is unimpressed by the 2022 quarterback class is the movement we saw at quarterback this month.

Barely weeks after Joe Burrow went to the Super Bowl in his second NFL season, the Broncos traded a top-10 pick, a future first round pick, and more to acquire Russell Wilson. Denver had no such faith that a top-10 quarterback could do that for them and they could have probably just as easily traded places with the Lions in the draft at that price. At less than that price.

The Browns could have made a 49ers-for-Lance sized upgrade with the bounty they paid to acquire Deshaun Watson. They felt no such love for Willis or Pickett.

The Commanders are sitting at pick 11, two behind Seattle, but they’ve already made their second round selection on a quarterback: trading far too much to the Colts to acquire Carson Wentz.

When you break down the number of teams that have a reasonable opening to draft a quarterback in the first round this year, I can’t see why those remaining teams would sweat the possibility of there not being a quarterback with just as many red flags and strengths on day two.

I think that the earliest a quarterback is likely to get drafted would be with the Texans’ second first round pick, the one that the Browns didn’t want. Houston can’t risk drafting a risky QB over a premier position prospect, but maybe at 13 GM Nick Caserio feels he can take a swing with one of his new pieces of capital.

In Seattle, Russell Wilson was around for the last 10 years, but he wasn’t the only franchise quarterback in the NFL during that time. There were actually a lot of other teams that have stuck with one quarterback for the majority of a decade. But out of them all, it was the Seahawks who did the least amount in draft and free agency to attempt to add another QB of note, and John Schneider admitted this recently.

Sure, it’s something that Seattle may want to adjust, but it won’t stop Carroll from believing that the position is overvalued by most of his colleagues.

Disagree with any of my assessments or want clarification?

I’ll be amazed if the Panthers pick Willis and then wait over 100 picks until their next selection. Should Matt Rhule just quit on draft day if that happens?

Once you get past the Eagles at 15, and 16, if there are no quarterbacks yet selected, where would Willis or Pickett even stop falling? The Saints have shown no propensity to draft quarterbacks under GM Mickey Loomis. New Orleans looks poised to take Winston’s bridge for one more season.

Many will say that the Steelers must draft a quarterback in round one. But Pittsburgh signed Mitchell Trubisky after MONTHS of talk in the media that Trubisky was “being viewed as a starter by NFL teams.” I know that Trubisky is not a good answer to a team’s QB woes, but is that what GM Kevin Colbert and HC Mike Tomlin want in training camp the year after Ben Roethlisberger retires? A quarterback competition that is guaranteed to result in: Trubisky winning the job over Willis, then Willis replacing Trubisky after a bad start in Week 3?

That doesn’t feel like “the Steelers” to me. Pittsburgh’s needs are abundant and the AFC South could be the hardest division in football next year. The Steelers need to find defenders who will stop Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson.

I don’t think it’s until you get to the Titans at 26 and the Bucs at 27 that I think you run into teams that may be willing to risk a late first round pick on a quarterback project to develop for 2023 and beyond. This is also the area of the draft where teams picking at the top of round two, such as the Lions (32, 34), Giants (36), Texans (37), Seahawks (40, 41), Colts (42), and Falcons (43) could contemplate trading up to select Willis, Pickett, or whichever “falling QB prospect” they’ve secretly thought was kinda good, but not good enough for a top-10 pick.

That’s the very definition of the 2022 quarterback class: Interesting, but not good enough.

So I think it’s plausible that Malik Willis will fall out of the top-12, and that if he slips by the Texans at 13, that he’s available outside of the first half of the first round. Given that I don’t really buy that teams like New Orleans, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia are nearly as quarterback desperate as people imply, and that I know for certain that general managers are aware that a first round selection on a QB in 2022 could prevent them from a first round QB selection in 2023, I think it’s possible that no quarterbacks are picked in the top-25.

That’s when the Titans can pick up the phone and tell teams, “actually we want Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett, so if you want to get ahead of the Bucs for him, make us a good offer” and actually mean it.

If Seahawks fans really want Malik Willis in the draft this year, I believe you could get your wish. But are you willing to wait the extra day?