NFC West's new great rivalry?

Vision Board: Seahawks-Cardinals

🚨!CONTROVERSIAL STATEMENT OF THE WEEK WARNING!🚨

If you cut Josh Allen in half, moved them to the NFC West, and switched snow for sand, the Buffalo Bills would BE the Arizona Cardinals.

There is a similar track being carved out by the Cardinals that proved successful for the Bills:

• Pair a defensive-minded coach with a franchise QB

• Steadily improve year over year

• Wait for your competition to get old and overpaid

• Become a Super Bowl contender (???)

The order of operations isn’t exactly the same, but the Cardinals appear to have recovered from being Kinsburied in what is essentially the first season that head coach Jonathan Gannon and quarterback Kyler Murray have been on the same page. Since Murray’s return from ACL surgery last season, the Cardinals are 9-9, which is more than the Seahawks can say; over that same period of time, Seattle is 8-10.

- When the Cardinals played the Bills in Week 1, it was a tight game throughout and came down to AZ losing in the final minute, 34-28.

- When the Seahawks played the Bills in Week 8, Seattle lost 31-10.

On the surface, the Cardinals seem at least a little bit worse than the Bills, but Allen has taken Tom Brady’s place as the quarterback who benefits the most from playing in a horrible AFC East division (4-6, 3-8, 3-8 are the other team records) and Arizona is just starting to heat up after having won four of the last five. Murray’s Cardinals have come out ahead of Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford when they beat the Rams 41-10 in Week 2.

Some of you are thinking that the Cardinals are “just okay” and maybe you are right, but it doesn’t sound farfetched to argue that if Arizona played in the AFC East instead of Buffalo, they’d be at least 9-2 and at least in contention for the number one seed in the AFC.

The Cardinals current position is where the Seahawks want to be and it is also where the Seahawks could end up if they beat Arizona on Sunday. The Vision Board outlines 3 wants Seattle fans should ask for to beat the Cardinals.

Outwit: Seahawks convert over 50% of third downs

KEY STAT:

The Seahawks are 44-of-212 (36.4%) on third down this season, which ranks 23rd.

The Cardinals have allowed teams to convert 59-of-123 (48%) of third downs this season, which ranks 31st.

Cardinals defensive coordinator Nick Rallis is one of the youngest (31) coordinators in the NFL and certain to get some head coaching interest after the season. But Arizona’s Achilles heel has come on third down, where they rank as the second-worst defense in the league.

Take their worst loss of the season, for example: 42-14 to the Moons.

Washington went 9-of-12 on third down and didn’t fail to convert until just before halftime. And one of their three failed third down attempts still ended up being a fourth down conversion.

The Seahawks have been mediocre on third down, but did go 6-of-13 (and 1-of-2 on fourth down) against the 49ers in their most recent game.

• When the Seahawks converted a third down, they scored 17 of their 20 points on those drives

• When they didn’t convert, they scored 3 points and Geno Smith threw an interception on one of his third down attempts

Against a defense that has struggled on third down this season, now is the time for Ryan Grubb and Geno to a) avoid third-and-Long, b) convert every third-and-Short or Medium.

Outplay: Derick Hall and Boye Mafe own the Edge

Kyler Murray is as tough of a matchup as the Seahawks pass rushers will have all season:

• Murray is the 5th-least pressured QB in the NFL (28%)

• He’s been sacked only 15 times (only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are sacked fewer times per game)

• He has the 5th-lowest INT rate (1.1%)

• He’s been the best QB in the NFL outside of the pocket:

By comparison, Geno has been pressured on 38.5% of his dropbacks, has been sacked 32 times, and has an INT rate of 2.9%.

Hall and Mafe are at an expected disadvantage in this game. There’s been some talk of “Oh wow, the Seahawks finally have edge rushers” but those two are not yet as consistent as the GREAT edge rushers tend to be:

• Hall and Mafe each have one sack in their last five games.

It’s great that Hall and Mafe are young, cheap, and by all accounts better than they were early in their careers. Still, there are average players, good players, great players, and elite players…Hall and Mafe could be better than average, but Hall is 29th in pressures (18) and Mafe is 46th in pressures (14) so it is safe to say they aren’t elite or great.

Gut-Wrenching Stat:

• Dre’Mont Jones has the same number of sacks, more pressures, and far fewer missed tackles than Boye Mafe

Kyler is as hard of a QB matchup as those two will face this season, so they either have to keep him in the pocket, force him to succeed in the middle of chaos, or they need do what so few have done this year and WRAP-HIM-UP.

Outlast: Jason Myers’ perfect day

Perfect stat of the day:

• In his career, Myers is 20-of-20 on field goal attempts against the Cardinals and 24-of-25 on extra points.

Myers missed an extra point during a 28-21 Seahawks win in 2020, but has otherwise made all 44 other kicks and has made at least one field goal against Arizona in all 10 meetings, with at least 2 makes in eight of those games.

It feels as though this game will come down to who is more perfect in the fourth quarter and that means Seattle can’t afford any missed opportunities and definitely no missed kicks.

What are your visions this week? Seaside Jay is busy with early Thanksgiving preparation this weekend, so no Jay’s picks but maybe you can help her with your own:

Seaside Joe 2092