I’ve never seen a luckier team than the Niners in the 2021 post-season. In both of their wins, they played uninspired football and won anyway because the two home teams tried even harder to give away the games. Coming into this season, they are in the same bind at QB as Cleveland except that Jimmy Garappolo is no Baker Mayfield and Trey Lance is for certain no Deshaun Watson. Plus, the coach is the Jeff Fisher of his era. If SEA does not overtake them in 2022, they will in 2023–this one is a matter of time.
Re Phoenix, it’s hard to know what to make of a streaky team that saves its worst play for the back half of the season. But right now, they have the best long-term situation at QB.
As for the Rams, even given Matthew Stanford’s age (34), this team looks to be formidable for a while yet, if for no other reason than its front office keeps bringing in good players. More than any other franchise in the NFL, the Rams have absorbed the reality that there is no long term in the NFL. That’s no small advantage when it comes to building and maintaining a talented roster. They did play 21 games last year, which may become a factor in a grueling second half schedule that has them playing five of eight games on the road (including New Orleans, Kansas City, and Green Bay).
Seattle’s season is riding on whether Drew Lock can play. There, I’ve said it. We can say all we want about Geno Smith knowing the offense and having never had much of chance, but none of that makes Smith’s arm any better. (If there’s such a metric as Minimal Acceptable Velocity, Geno is right at the line.) If he starts, look for an unprecedented number of wounded duck sightings over Lumen Field.
The Rams notwithstanding, the days of the NFC West being the best division in the NFL are in the rear view mirror. On the other hand, none of the teams are dogs and all are capable of putting up a fight at home against anyone. Even if the Seahawks perform as I expect (4-5 wins), they will stay in a lot of games and get better as the season goes on.
Loved the article! To touch on a few things you mentioned, I expect the Rams to win the NFCW. I've said over and over that I expect (and hope) that we sign Baker before the season begins, but Jimmy G would represent a massive upgrade over anyone we have. This is less enthusiasm for those QBs, but more how I feel about Lock and Geno. Also, I am a lifelong Seahawks fan and not a Mariners fan at all, AMA. Though not a Seattle or even west coast native, so not sure it counts.
Gonna be interesting to see what happens, but it could be difficult for the Browns, 49ers to release those players outright and not be able to choose where they place them.
And in the Browns case, no cap savings by cutting him and there's reason to believe there will be a suspension for DeShaun coming up. Though I'm not sure the relationship isn't fractured beyond the point where Baker would even play for them this season. Crazy to me that there are already season total betting lines up, when a large part of what you would be betting on is who might be playing for these teams come September.
Repeating as a Super Bowl team is rare. Even making the playoffs in year 2 is hard. Too many distractions, a tougher schedule, and luck may not be as kind. It's a tough road for the Rams. Arizona could revert to its losing ways. No one seems to believe in Garapolo or Lance. At least one team will implode. The Hawks won't be 4th in the division, but they're not going to the playoffs
But it's also not every year that Russell Wilson leaves the division, so maybe a little break on the schedule there for LA. It will be a little shocking if Stafford, Rodgers, Brady aren't all in the playoffs
I think it would be kinda dangerous for the niners to trade Jimmy and go all in on Lance. I mean, you have to, but if the floor falls out and Lance is the worst version of what he could be, they could be in for a truly awful season.
We'll see about the Rams. As you said, it's all expectations of dynasties after a championship until it's not.
Overall I think the Seahawks are rightfully placed in the division cellar in terms of expectations. Expectations are just that though, and there's plenty of worlds where the Hawks end up winning the division: Imagine the defense gelling with the new identity and being a top 10 unit. Totally possible. Imagine the run game looking like it did at the end of the year. Imagine picking up Baker for peanuts and seeing him return to an above-average level, or even think about Lock only really being relied on for explosive plays since the dynamic run game is keeping the offense ahead of schedule (whereas we're used to being behind schedule and leaning on Russ for something amazing a couple times per scoring drive). The offense could _also_ be a top ten unit. Special teams makes the leap from really good b/c of Dickson to elite because Myers (or someone else) finds some consistency as a kicker. Being top 10 in all phases is possible, though unlikely, and top ten across the board teams tend to compete for division titles and have expectations in the postseason.
Oh yeah, Arizona. I bet they make a run at a wild card but fall a little short.
oh yeah, and people think the Adams trade was a wild overpay. If Lance is a bust (which is probably pretty likely just because QBs tend to flame out, especially toolsy unpolished ones), then that's 3 firsts and a third spent on him. That's Russell Wilson-level capital expenditure.
Top six SB odds in order: Bills, TB, KC, GB, Rams, Niners. Odds are affected by the public which is likely why TB and GB are so high. I just don't think the Bills can get by KC.
“A franchise with only seven winning seasons since 1985.” I had to go and check and good lord, it’s true. What a level of sustained decrepitude- the Hawks have had nine since 2012!
Does OU train their first round QBs to be entitled, headaches? Murray was very subpar without Hopkins who is out for the first 6 this year. Az needs their fast start to have a chance at the playoffs with their second half woes.
Maybe Kyler will seek incentives in his new deal to get Donald to retire. That was embarrassing last playoff game. I mean, embarrassing. But it also brings up Donald's prowess. Murray and Wilson seem to have the most problems with Donald. I won't say he's absent in other games, but he seems to like mobile QBs that hang on to the ball. It allows his athleticism to get involved.
LARs long playoff run could factor into them losing some games they might have otherwise won. It's not uncommon for older teams to have issues, including injuries, with extended playoff runs. Maybe that's why GB keeps repeating...lol
SF might actually be a problem for Seattle this year because of their running game. I like the Hawks interior, but their edges are susceptible. SF really is unpredictable because of their QB situation. Until it's determined what Lance is or isn't, they're a tough prediction.
I enjoyed your take on 'rebuild.' It's not an NFL thing, and the league's infatuation with parity factors in there somewhere too. Draft, schedules, and cap do level the field pretty well. I'm not calling Seattle's advancement a rebuild because I don't think Pete's philosophy allows that type of thinking. He's not enamored with a QB1 like other coaches or, actually, owners.
I think Pete loves the entire 53, and wants them all to be part of the success. Not in some weird socialist bent, but really bettering yourself as a person and player, and reaping the rewards of great effort, and trusting the guy next to you. Rebuild's not in their nomenclature because Pete sees himself as one of the cool kids, and who wants to hang out with a loser?
I think Pete's awakening to the arrogance of just lining up and going head-to-head without disguising scheme will make Seattle a much more interesting team this year than most think. Until teams get tape on what they're doing, they could sneak out to an early win total that let's them kind of Cardinals themselves into a run. Maybe not, but no one is going to know what the Hawks are doing until they start doing it. Because Pete's a notorious vanilla guy for preseason.
Me think a rookie head coach with a new QB could have some challenges on their hands coming into Seattle for the first game. How fun would that be???
I suppose it's LAR, SF, Cards/Hawks or Hawks/Cards again if I'm pressed.
But I gotta go now because the M's tanked to get good so I've got to go see how that's going...
While I note you differentiating between NFL and MLB rebuilds, the MLB has taken a "beatin for cheatin" in recent years. In spite of recent headlines about tanking and other practices, I hate to see the NFL follow suit (lookin at you Patriots). Without being holier than thou, I like to think Seattle at least attempts to keep things legal.
Man...it occurs to me I'm wandering too far into the DMZ! Be gentle with me. I'm not naive to the point that I believe all sports aren't rife with those seeking an advantage, legally or otherwise. Just keep it within the lines and hammer those (equally) the stray outside of them.
Rams have a very good team and principally the best head coach in the division. I don't think they can pay everybody but that doesn't seem to ever hold them back, so, have to have them as favorites in the division.
49'ers are next best bc they'll do a better job than Seattle on defense and on running the football. Don't think their QB situation is very good but their defense and running game is better than Seattle.
Seattle is going to be better than people think, especially on defense and in the running game. Their WR's are so good that there will be some actual high scoring games when people sleep on them. But end of the day, that QB position and the pesky Niners' front 7 will put them 3rd in the division, somewhere around 7-10 or 8-9, something like that.
I’ve never seen a luckier team than the Niners in the 2021 post-season. In both of their wins, they played uninspired football and won anyway because the two home teams tried even harder to give away the games. Coming into this season, they are in the same bind at QB as Cleveland except that Jimmy Garappolo is no Baker Mayfield and Trey Lance is for certain no Deshaun Watson. Plus, the coach is the Jeff Fisher of his era. If SEA does not overtake them in 2022, they will in 2023–this one is a matter of time.
Re Phoenix, it’s hard to know what to make of a streaky team that saves its worst play for the back half of the season. But right now, they have the best long-term situation at QB.
As for the Rams, even given Matthew Stanford’s age (34), this team looks to be formidable for a while yet, if for no other reason than its front office keeps bringing in good players. More than any other franchise in the NFL, the Rams have absorbed the reality that there is no long term in the NFL. That’s no small advantage when it comes to building and maintaining a talented roster. They did play 21 games last year, which may become a factor in a grueling second half schedule that has them playing five of eight games on the road (including New Orleans, Kansas City, and Green Bay).
Seattle’s season is riding on whether Drew Lock can play. There, I’ve said it. We can say all we want about Geno Smith knowing the offense and having never had much of chance, but none of that makes Smith’s arm any better. (If there’s such a metric as Minimal Acceptable Velocity, Geno is right at the line.) If he starts, look for an unprecedented number of wounded duck sightings over Lumen Field.
The Rams notwithstanding, the days of the NFC West being the best division in the NFL are in the rear view mirror. On the other hand, none of the teams are dogs and all are capable of putting up a fight at home against anyone. Even if the Seahawks perform as I expect (4-5 wins), they will stay in a lot of games and get better as the season goes on.
Loved the article! To touch on a few things you mentioned, I expect the Rams to win the NFCW. I've said over and over that I expect (and hope) that we sign Baker before the season begins, but Jimmy G would represent a massive upgrade over anyone we have. This is less enthusiasm for those QBs, but more how I feel about Lock and Geno. Also, I am a lifelong Seahawks fan and not a Mariners fan at all, AMA. Though not a Seattle or even west coast native, so not sure it counts.
Gonna be interesting to see what happens, but it could be difficult for the Browns, 49ers to release those players outright and not be able to choose where they place them.
And in the Browns case, no cap savings by cutting him and there's reason to believe there will be a suspension for DeShaun coming up. Though I'm not sure the relationship isn't fractured beyond the point where Baker would even play for them this season. Crazy to me that there are already season total betting lines up, when a large part of what you would be betting on is who might be playing for these teams come September.
Repeating as a Super Bowl team is rare. Even making the playoffs in year 2 is hard. Too many distractions, a tougher schedule, and luck may not be as kind. It's a tough road for the Rams. Arizona could revert to its losing ways. No one seems to believe in Garapolo or Lance. At least one team will implode. The Hawks won't be 4th in the division, but they're not going to the playoffs
But it's also not every year that Russell Wilson leaves the division, so maybe a little break on the schedule there for LA. It will be a little shocking if Stafford, Rodgers, Brady aren't all in the playoffs
So what is that? 7-10, 8-9? Or worse?
Maybe 7-10.
Blah... not fun.
But if somehow they surprised the world and win big, it'll be one of the better years as it's not expected.
Those are fun times
Be realistic.
nah...gotta do that in real life. Sports allows for unrealistic hope :)
I think it would be kinda dangerous for the niners to trade Jimmy and go all in on Lance. I mean, you have to, but if the floor falls out and Lance is the worst version of what he could be, they could be in for a truly awful season.
We'll see about the Rams. As you said, it's all expectations of dynasties after a championship until it's not.
Overall I think the Seahawks are rightfully placed in the division cellar in terms of expectations. Expectations are just that though, and there's plenty of worlds where the Hawks end up winning the division: Imagine the defense gelling with the new identity and being a top 10 unit. Totally possible. Imagine the run game looking like it did at the end of the year. Imagine picking up Baker for peanuts and seeing him return to an above-average level, or even think about Lock only really being relied on for explosive plays since the dynamic run game is keeping the offense ahead of schedule (whereas we're used to being behind schedule and leaning on Russ for something amazing a couple times per scoring drive). The offense could _also_ be a top ten unit. Special teams makes the leap from really good b/c of Dickson to elite because Myers (or someone else) finds some consistency as a kicker. Being top 10 in all phases is possible, though unlikely, and top ten across the board teams tend to compete for division titles and have expectations in the postseason.
Oh yeah, Arizona. I bet they make a run at a wild card but fall a little short.
Gonna be WILD if the 49ers can't trust Lance for two years, having paid the price they did.
oh yeah, and people think the Adams trade was a wild overpay. If Lance is a bust (which is probably pretty likely just because QBs tend to flame out, especially toolsy unpolished ones), then that's 3 firsts and a third spent on him. That's Russell Wilson-level capital expenditure.
Super Bowl 2023
Rams - Stafford's second year in the system plus Wagner on D.
Chiefs - We'll see if MaHomes acutally is the best. KC had a very good draft.
Who Care Bowl 2023
Niners vs Cards.
Yeah, I gotta think Bills, Chiefs are the favorites.
Top six SB odds in order: Bills, TB, KC, GB, Rams, Niners. Odds are affected by the public which is likely why TB and GB are so high. I just don't think the Bills can get by KC.
“A franchise with only seven winning seasons since 1985.” I had to go and check and good lord, it’s true. What a level of sustained decrepitude- the Hawks have had nine since 2012!
Maybe worse than the lack of winning seasons is the abundance of 10+ loss seasons.
Does OU train their first round QBs to be entitled, headaches? Murray was very subpar without Hopkins who is out for the first 6 this year. Az needs their fast start to have a chance at the playoffs with their second half woes.
Maybe Kyler will seek incentives in his new deal to get Donald to retire. That was embarrassing last playoff game. I mean, embarrassing. But it also brings up Donald's prowess. Murray and Wilson seem to have the most problems with Donald. I won't say he's absent in other games, but he seems to like mobile QBs that hang on to the ball. It allows his athleticism to get involved.
LARs long playoff run could factor into them losing some games they might have otherwise won. It's not uncommon for older teams to have issues, including injuries, with extended playoff runs. Maybe that's why GB keeps repeating...lol
SF might actually be a problem for Seattle this year because of their running game. I like the Hawks interior, but their edges are susceptible. SF really is unpredictable because of their QB situation. Until it's determined what Lance is or isn't, they're a tough prediction.
I enjoyed your take on 'rebuild.' It's not an NFL thing, and the league's infatuation with parity factors in there somewhere too. Draft, schedules, and cap do level the field pretty well. I'm not calling Seattle's advancement a rebuild because I don't think Pete's philosophy allows that type of thinking. He's not enamored with a QB1 like other coaches or, actually, owners.
I think Pete loves the entire 53, and wants them all to be part of the success. Not in some weird socialist bent, but really bettering yourself as a person and player, and reaping the rewards of great effort, and trusting the guy next to you. Rebuild's not in their nomenclature because Pete sees himself as one of the cool kids, and who wants to hang out with a loser?
I think Pete's awakening to the arrogance of just lining up and going head-to-head without disguising scheme will make Seattle a much more interesting team this year than most think. Until teams get tape on what they're doing, they could sneak out to an early win total that let's them kind of Cardinals themselves into a run. Maybe not, but no one is going to know what the Hawks are doing until they start doing it. Because Pete's a notorious vanilla guy for preseason.
Me think a rookie head coach with a new QB could have some challenges on their hands coming into Seattle for the first game. How fun would that be???
I suppose it's LAR, SF, Cards/Hawks or Hawks/Cards again if I'm pressed.
But I gotta go now because the M's tanked to get good so I've got to go see how that's going...
We'll see if Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams have that attitude at USC.
You're not banging a trash can that we rebuild like the Astros are you?
Who is "we"? A) I don't follow the Mariners anymore. B) Well, as I said, NFL rebuilds have no comparison to MLB rebuilds.
While I note you differentiating between NFL and MLB rebuilds, the MLB has taken a "beatin for cheatin" in recent years. In spite of recent headlines about tanking and other practices, I hate to see the NFL follow suit (lookin at you Patriots). Without being holier than thou, I like to think Seattle at least attempts to keep things legal.
I'm so unplugged from baseball that I had just forgotten about the cheating
Gotcha...and although I'm a diehard Seahawks fan (missing the Sonics), I'm still hoping for an M's playoff berth... someday.
Man...it occurs to me I'm wandering too far into the DMZ! Be gentle with me. I'm not naive to the point that I believe all sports aren't rife with those seeking an advantage, legally or otherwise. Just keep it within the lines and hammer those (equally) the stray outside of them.
you're not stealing what he's pitching???
Rams have a very good team and principally the best head coach in the division. I don't think they can pay everybody but that doesn't seem to ever hold them back, so, have to have them as favorites in the division.
49'ers are next best bc they'll do a better job than Seattle on defense and on running the football. Don't think their QB situation is very good but their defense and running game is better than Seattle.
Seattle is going to be better than people think, especially on defense and in the running game. Their WR's are so good that there will be some actual high scoring games when people sleep on them. But end of the day, that QB position and the pesky Niners' front 7 will put them 3rd in the division, somewhere around 7-10 or 8-9, something like that.
Arizona is just Arizona.
This all feels accurate