The NFL's 2028 starting quarterbacks

Seahawks ahead of the curve of a rapidly changing landscape

The Seahawks have had four different starting quarterbacks in the last five seasons. Sometimes change happens so fast that our minds will expand our perspective of the timeline to help understand the scope of our history.

Like trying to understand how 2026 could be the 40-year anniversary of Top Gun and the 30-year anniversary of Mission: Impossible and the 20-year anniversary of Mission: Impossible III and already four years since Top Gun: Maverick was released.

In the previous four offseasons, the Seahawks have traded Russell Wilson, held a competition between Geno Smith and Drew Lock, parted with Lock, traded Geno, brought back Lock, and signed Sam Darnold. Three of those guys have been called “franchise starters” and yes there were several times that Lock was given serious consideration too.

Unless a player has an ironclad and prohibitive contract, there is nothing keeping NFL teams from making a change at quarterback at any time except for this: Consistent top-10 production at the position every year.

And that’s something that some franchises have basically NEVER had.

(Browns, Cardinals, Jets, Bears, etc.)

Seattle is in a division with the NFL’s oldest starting quarterback (as of today), one of the most injury prone, and Jacoby Brissett. If the Seahawks can even manage a 4-year window with Darnold they might have a HUGE advantage over the rest of the NFC West for the rest of the decade.

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Right now the Seahawks have Darnold, and he’s only 28 (until June), and he’s a Super Bowl winner, so they are in one of those rare pockets in history in which Seattle is among the few franchises that probably have no qualms at quarterback. It wouldn’t be that crazy if half of the league has a new starting quarterback by the end of 2027.

40% new starters since last year

Since 2024, thirteen teams have changed their starting quarterback at least once. That’s 34 games or less ago that 40% of the league’s teams have moved on from a quarterback who they cited as “the starter”. I’m not talking about guys who had to start some games, I’m talking about starters:

• 2024 Cardinals: Kyler Murray

• 2024 Falcons: Kirk Cousins

• 2024 Browns: Deshaun Watson and company*

• 2024 Colts: Anthony Richardson

• 2024 Raiders: Gardner Minshew

• 2024 Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa

• 2024 Vikings: Sam Darnold

• 2024 Saints: Derek Carr

• 2024 Giants: Daniel Jones

• 2024 Jets: Aaron Rodgers

• 2024 Steelers: Russell Wilson/Justin Fields

• 2024 Seahawks: Geno Smith

• 2024 Titans: Will Levis

*Watson only still on Browns because he has a fully-guaranteed contract

It stands to reason that if 40% of the league’s quarterbacks can change from 2024 to 2026 that 40% of the league’s quarterbacks can change from 2025 to 2027.

The most surprising thing about the list is that these aren’t just 13 bad teams. The Seahawks weren’t a bad team with Geno Smith, nor could you say that about the Steelers, Vikings, or Colts, and even Miami, Atlanta, and Arizona were around .500 in 2024. The Cardinals went 8-9 with Murray in 2024.

We expect the Browns to change quarterbacks from now to next year, but who else?

Can you pick out 13 “starting” quarterbacks right now who will be gone from their teams by 2027?

2026 starting quarterbacks (3/30/2026)

via OurLads:

Notes:

• Steelers QB could be Aaron Rodgers

• Browns don’t have a starting QB

Notes:

• Raiders will draft Fernando Mendoza

Notes:

• Kyler Murray faces some competition from J.J. McCarthy

Notes:

• Michael Penix faces competition from Tua Tagovailoa

How could this list change just from today to the end of the 2026 season?

80-99% likelihood to change by 2027 offseason:

• Browns

• Steelers

• Vikings

• Cardinals

• Falcons

• Saints

• Jets

(I’m already considering Mendoza, not O’Connell, to be Las Vegas’s starter.)

You’ve got teams are that certainly making changes like Pittsburgh and Cleveland, plus a few teams that are maybe going to struggle to get a foothold with their current starter because of age or uncertainty of ability or injuries.

Any of these could be wrong, say it’s Michael Penix or Tyler Shough having a breakout season or Kyler having a Baker Mayfield-type year, but let’s just make it easy and kick these seven teams into the blender next year.

50-79% likelihood to make a change by 2027:

• Panthers

• Dolphins

• Colts

• Titans

• Giants

I don’t think this is really a slap in the face to anyone. The Panthers picked up Bryce Young’s 2027 fifth-year option and I don’t really know why they did that because to me that could be another Kyler situation where a franchise is overrating moderate team success (8-9 playoff team) and mis-attributing it to a mediocre quarterback.

And I was a fan of Carolina trading up for Young but I’m not sold there’s been enough improvement from him. Similarly I am a fan of Cam Ward but he’s got the opposite problem: The Titans are such a bad team that he might be blamed for their lack of success.

Guys like Jaxson Dart and Malik Willis are unproven and Daniel Jones has a litany of issues working against him.

Even so this is just me saying maybe there’s a coin flip chance of any of these teams making a quarterback change in the next 12 months. Are any of these options really that crazy? Between these two lists that makes 12 teams that might undergo a quarterback change soon and certainly there are going to be a few surprises that I didn’t list.

Uncertainty by END of 2027:

• Seahawks (Darnold FA)

• Rams (Stafford age)

• 49ers (Purdy injury)

There are four unique situations in the NFC West that could — and probably will — significantly alter the landscape of the division by 2028.

Darnold is signed through 2027 and in many ways the next season is a “contract year” for him. If Darnold improves on what he did last year, the Seahawks will extend him to a more lucrative contract. If he regresses, the Seahawks might end or trade his contract next year.

If Aaron Rodgers (or Philip Rivers) doesn’t return, then Matthew Stafford is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s 38 now, 39 in 2027, and 40 in 2028. It’s not a death sentence, but Stafford’s already been in the “will he retire this time?” phase for the past couple of years.

Brock Purdy is injury prone and he has a turnover problem that got even worse in 2025. The 49ers have been asking for a lot to trade Mac Jones and it could be because they’re not even certain about Purdy’s future.

The Cardinals have Brissett and Minshew right now.

2027 NFC West

If next season’s QBs are Darnold, Stafford, Purdy, Brissett, then the division could be 25% or 50% different in 2027. Either because Stafford retired or the Niners transitioned away from Purdy. And if both of those things happen then Darnold could actually be the last NFC West quarterback standing in 2027!

Although Purdy signed a $265 million contract last year, parting ways in 2027 or 2028 is not out of the question, especially if he’s able to be traded.

Sam Darnold has to be considered the safest long-term option in the NFC West for a number of reasons:

• He’s a Super Bowl winner

• He’s not injury prone

• He’s not old

• He’s not overpaid (yet)

• He’s on the best team

For right now, Darnold is the best of all worlds, whereas Arizona is in the middle of making a change and L.A. is probably next. And Purdy has demons to overcome on a roster that is aging and changing all around him.

Since Purdy’s first injury in early 2023, Darnold has only suffered one notable injury, a knee bruise in 2024 only caused him to miss part of one game.

In that time, Purdy has had: Elbow tear, concussion, neck stinger, shoulder injury, elbow bruise, turf toe, shoulder stinger.

It’s not just bad luck. It’s playing style combined with the Kyle Shanahan offense and the waning quality of offensive line talent in San Francisco. The Niners were barely worse off, if at all, when Mac Jones started eight games in 2025.

I expect the Seahawks to extend Darnold in 2027.

It just makes sense. However, I don’t think it is guaranteed and the historical record does more than just suggest that Seattle is keeping its options open until Darnold gets through another season.

Jalen Milroe was drafted with 2027 in mind, giving the Seahawks over two years to find out if they can develop his quarterbacking abilities enough to make him the starter before the end of his 2025-2028 rookie contract. Will that happen? It’s extremely rare.

But the Seahawks know what we now know:

In this league, starting quarterbacks change before you even realize it’s a new year.

Seaside Joe 2582