Don't waste your draft capital on a quarterback
Discover more from Seaside Joe
Don't waste your draft capital on a quarterback
Seaside Joe 1136: Draft Capital=Daft Crap, It All!
Every year, Field Yates (or some “Field Yates” like person on Twitter) rushes to the podium to announce who has won the grandest prize of all: MOST DRAFT CAPITAL!
Because for many, it’s not about winning the draft on draft day (Grades! Woo! Useful!), it’s about winning the draft before the draft has even started.
The winner this year, so far, is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Even though the Giants and Jets currently hold two top-10 picks, the Jags hold the first pick in every round except the fifth (where they hold the Vikings pick), two picks in the third, four picks in the sixth (including Seattle’s), and two in the seventh.
This seems cool—like a million dollars—but having the most draft capital has actually done shit-all to make those franchises any better.
From 2016 to 2018, the Browns held the most draft capital in three successive years. The players who were picked in the first three rounds who remain on the roster today are: Myles Garrett, Baker Mayfield, Denzel Ward, and Nick Chubb. Mayfield will be gone soon. Chubb is a running back. Ward’s been a really good player but he is about to become a free agent and after the Deshaun Watson trade, it seems the team may not be able to keep him past next season.
The biggest takeaway though is that the Browns have still only won one playoff game (2020 wild card) over the last 25 years.
In 2019, the Giants had the most capital, picking Daniel Jones, Dexter Lawrence, DeAndre Baker, and Oshane Ximenes in the first three rounds. In 2020, it was the Dolphins, and they picked Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson, Noah Igbinoghene, Robert Hunt, Raekwon Davis, and Brandon Jones in the first three rounds.
Tua is on the hot seat after two seasons. Jackson was moved to guard and he’s been considered a bust so far. So has Igbinoghene, a corner with three career starts and two pass deflections. Hunt, Davis, and Jones are just guys on the roster of a middling AFC team that has likely fallen behind half of the conference or more since this draft.
It was last year that Jacksonville picked Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne (missed entire season), Tyson Campbell, Walker Little, and Andre Cisco in the first three rounds. The jury is out, but we know that the Jags are picking first again.
One of the most interesting themes here though: Every single one of these teams picked a quarterback in the first three rounds. Cleveland even did it despite being the team with the most capital for three years in a row!
Cody Kessler and DeShone Kizer were COMPLETE WASTES in the third and second round, respectively. Mayfield was an understandable choice in 2018, but the Browns finally admitted their mistake of passing on Josh Allen by trading for Watson this year.
The Giants picked Jones in 2019. The Dolphins picked Tua over Justin Herbert in 2020. The Jags did what any team would’ve done with Lawrence or Zach Wilson in 2021.
We know Jacksonville won’t pick a quarterback this year. Will the Seahawks?
Seattle doesn’t have the most 2022 capital but they could end up with the most 2023 capital: the Seahawks have two firsts and two seconds next year already, and I suspect they’ll continue to load up when they get the opportunity. I have always encouraged Seattle to wait until 2023 to draft a QB, and I continue to do that, but this is still an important lesson as the Seahawks prepare for this April’s edition:
Day two is still a vital place to build up your roster and using one of those selections on a QB is more likely to result in Kizer/Kessler than the next Russell Wilson. Don’t do it. Obviously, don’t draft a QB in the first round either, but let’s keep our heads on in rounds two and three too.
Don't waste your draft capital on a quarterback
Write-on, Right On.