Ranking all 32 quarterbacks for 2022 and predicting the eventual QB carousel

Do Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers get traded? Who mans the position for Broncos, Steelers, Saints, and Panthers? Which teams are in good shape or terrible shape moving forward?

Most attractive teams for available veteran quarterbacks: Saints, Steelers, Broncos

Most attractive quarterbacks who could potentially be available: Lamar Jackson/Tyler Huntley, Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson, Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo

Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes

Packers - Aaron Rodgers

Bucs - Tom Brady

Rams - Matthew Stafford

Notes:

These are not tiers, they’re barely rankings, it’s just sorting each situation out in a general sense. Even if Mahomes didn’t have the season we expected, he continues to be uniquely talented and few teams wouldn’t swap out their starter for him. Mahomes still has 6 games with a AY/A above 9.0; only Stafford (9) and Rodgers (7) have more. Barring a stalemate on a contract extension, which I doubt happens, Green Bay will not trade Aaron Rodgers. Brady leads the NFL in completions, attempts, yards, and touchdowns and I haven’t heard an argument for why he’d retire now.

Chargers - Justin Herbert

Cardinals - Kyler Murray

Bills - Josh Allen

Bengals - Joe Burrow

Notes:

Herbert was my favorite quarterback in the 2020 draft and I put some money on him to win MVP this season. That won’t happen but the Chargers are happy with who they’ve got at quarterback and will be for a long time. Murray has plenty to work on but I think I’ve seen enough to believe he’s going to improve and he’s already very good. Allen is a bit confounding but I’m an old fashioned football fan who likes players who create touchdowns. Burrow leads the NFL in interceptions and times sacked, but I’m encouraged by how he’s played for the Bengals following an ACL injury in 2020.

These are not tiers, they’re barely rankings, it’s just sorting each situation out in a general sense.

Seahawks - Russell Wilson

Cowboys - Dak Prescott

Vikings - Kirk Cousins

Patriots - Mac Jones

Notes:

I don’t believe that Seattle will trade Wilson, but I am also not convinced that Wilson can reach another Super Bowl in his career. It’s concerning that he’s been legitimately very bad this season and while Brady defies the odds by playing at a high level in his 40s, Wilson and every other quarterback is still subject to the possibility that a good career can turn sour in his mid-30s; Donovan McNabb, for example. Dak’s numbers somehow have been worse with Michael Gallup than without him. In four years with the Vikings, Cousins is a top tier statistical quarterback—68%, 120 TD, 35 INT, 7.7 Y/A, 103.2 rating—but Minnesota continues to languish in the league’s middle. Mac Jones is exactly the rookie quarterback that I expected him to be, but he went from 3 pass attempts in a win over Buffalo to 45 pass attempts in a loss to the Colts.

Browns - Baker Mayfield

Colts - Carson Wentz

49ers - Trey Lance / Jimmy Garoppolo

Ravens - Lamar Jackson / Tyler Huntley

Notes:

These are not tiers, they’re barely rankings, it’s just sorting each situation out in a general sense.

I think it says a lot that we’re not even to the back half of the list but these are the quarterbacks/situations that feel more like “Maybe you can win with them, but can you win because of them?” The Ravens must make a huge decision on Jackson and I think Baltimore must seriously consider leaning towards putting him on the trade market. The Joe Flacco extension set the franchise back for years and Flacco was a better passer than Jackson is now. Cleveland shouldn’t move on from Mayfield—the supporting cast didn’t turn out to be nearly as good as most of us had predicted in the offseason. The Browns will probably draft a receiver in the first round in 2022. Indianapolis ended up trading a 2022 first round pick for Wentz, which I didn’t give them enough credit for; even if he’s not great, the Colts wouldn’t be pushing for the AFC South crown with anyone else available other than Wentz or Stafford. I had long assumed that Garoppolo would be out of San Francisco by 2021 or 2022, but the 49ers best Plan A might be to run it back with Garoppolo and Lance next season. There is no indication that Lance is close to NFL-ready; if only Justin Fields had gone to a franchise that was willing to hold him back for multiple seasons of development.

Titans - Ryan Tannehill

Raiders - Derek Carr

Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence

Jets - Zach Wilson

Notes:

I had no idea Ryan Tannehill was playing so poorly until digging into his season this week. By all accounts, 2021 is his worst seasons since he was a 2012 rookie, and given the circumstances, we might as well call it his worst NFL campaign period: 14 TD, NFL-high 14 INT, 41 sacks, 9 fumbles. Running backs…don’t matter? Check the splits with and without Derrick Henry then. I’m way past the defense of Derek Carr…he’s not good enough. I’m going to defend and remain on board for Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. The numbers and the way they’re playing, it’s all very bad, but then on film I believe you can still see what made them picks 1 and 2 and I haven’t seen any reason to “re-draft” them in a different spot or order. I think that Tennessee and Las Vegas should both be on the QB market in 2022, even if it’s low-key.

Falcons - Matt Ryan

Eagles - Jalen Hurts

Broncos - Teddy Bridgewater

Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa

Notes:

All four teams should be back on the QB market in 2022. They could also all make compelling arguments to free agents and tradeable assets; Atlanta has Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts; Philadelphia’s not that far removed from a Super Bowl win and has DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert; Denver’s got the defense and an attractive franchise history, with Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler at receiver; the Dolphins scratched back into the playoff race with six straight wins and Jaylen Waddle has much to do with that. At least two of these teams should make a change at quarterback. I am not compelled yet to believe that Hurts or Tua will have bright NFL futures.
These are not tiers, they’re barely rankings, it’s just sorting each situation out in a general sense.

Lions - Jared Goff

Giants - Daniel Jones

Washington - Taylor Heinicke

Texans - Davis Mills / Deshaun Watson

Notes:

We know that Watson isn’t returning to Houston, we also can’t ignore that Watson is probably going to be traded to a team and entrenched as a starter somewhere in 2022. That’s a reality that seems probable, even if you find Watson to be deplorable. I don’t believe Houston should draft a quarterback in 2022; get a great player, start a Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills type, then target a quarterback in 2023. Similar story for the Lions, who will surely retain Jared Goff for another season given that he’s played adequately for the last couple of months. There’s little reason for the Giants to believe that “more Daniel Jones” is the answer and New York could be an attractive destination for a veteran QB on the trade market. Washington has gotten a thing out of Curtis Samuel yet, but will return him, Terry McLaurin, and hopefully not any of the quarterbacks currently on the roster. Will Washington attract anyone of note? They might be best off taking a shot at a player in the draft and someone like Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral, or Bailey Zappe could be available outside of the top-10 or top-20.

Panthers - Sam Darnold

Bears - Justin Fields

Saints -

Steelers -

Notes:

These are not tiers, they’re barely rankings, it’s just sorting each situation out in a general sense.

Carolina traded a second round pick for Sam Darnold, which is now looking like it could land in the top-40. Was it really worth wasting that pick on Darnold instead of sacrificing a top-10 pick for Stafford? I’m not convinced that Matt Rhule will be the head coach when Carolina starts its 2022 offseason plan—the Panthers started 3-0 and blew out the Cardinals barely a month ago but there are way too many embarrassing moments on the resume this year. Chicago will probably fire Matt Nagy, a move I predicted the moment they drafted Justin Fields. That means a new “offensive genius” hire in 2022, but he won’t get to have a first round pick (slated for the top-10, if not top-5) because the Bears wanted Fields so badly. The team won’t get offensive help for him with that pick now. Will Allen Robinson even be coming back? Chicago’s going to be worse next year than they are this year, that’s my prediction.

The Saints and Steelers do not have quarterbacks for next season. Period. I will not entertain calls for Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Ian Book, Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, or Dwayne Haskins to be “starting NFL quarterbacks in 2022”. I won’t allow the entertainment! Both teams are currently slated to be picking in the middle of the first round, but while the Steelers have a decent amount of cap space for next year, the Saints are literally in the worst position of any team for 2022 salary cap: $70 million in the red per OvertheCap. How New Orleans will make that work is a mystery well beyond my salary cap knowledge—I know that they will figure it out—but it no less makes it improbable that the Saints will be able to acquire any legitimate starting veteran quarterback barring a massive contract re-negotiation. The Saints can potentially offer a QB the chance to work with Sean Payton, a great offensive line, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas (if he returns, but how and when does that happen?), but is that enough?

Matching QB to QB situation:

Steelers - QB Kenny Pickett, first round

Pittsburgh trades up in the draft to secure the rights to the superstar college quarterback playing right down the street from them. Pickett will be given a “Mac Jones” type grade going into the draft—high floor, low ceiling—but that’s not working out too poorly for New England, is it?

Broncos - QB Deshaun Watson, trade 2022 first, 2022 second, 2022 second (from Rams), 2022 third (from Rams), 2023 second

These kind of trade packages are COMPLETELY MADE UP and that should be said by anyone predicting any trades next year. It’s just my own definition of a completely made up Watson trade might look like one first, three seconds, and a third. It could also be two firsts, three seconds, or three firsts and no seconds—there are many ways this could go. The Broncos are the type of franchise that tends to go after a quarterback “at any cost” and maybe they will be the team that decides to handle the PR nightmare ahead.

Saints - QB Daniel Jones, trade 2022 fourth, 2023 third

In a no-win situation with the salary cap, perhaps New Orleans can fit a rookie contract under the cap?

Giants - QB Jimmy Garoppolo, trade 2022 second

I’ve never advocated for Garoppolo as a “good” quarterback but he’s getting the job done for Kyle Shanahan in the way that was intended when the 49ers acquired him. I’ve said already that I believe San Francisco could now stick with both quarterbacks next year, but there will be pressure to extract value from Garoppolo while they can unless the Niners manage to win the Super Bowl. In that case, San Francisco probably just boasts the fact that they have a Super Bowl-winning QB as the starter and a recent top-three pick as the future. Rumors that the Giants will retain Joe Judge are still only rumors, I think that New York could replace the entire regime: GM, HC, and QB. A quick turnaround next season is possible and they don’t want to blow their two top-10 picks.

Panthers - QB Lamar Jackson, trade 2022 first (top-10), 2023 first, 2023 third

The unexpected blockbuster on the level of Matthew Stafford-to-the-Rams. Carolina has already expended a 2022 second on Darnold, but they will hope to have found a true heir apparent at the QB position with Jackson and then give him the extension that Baltimore could not agree to.

I believe these four players could also potentially be traded in 2022:

Jordan Love

Tua Tagovailoa

Matt Ryan

Jalen Hurts