Could RBs become valuable trade chips in the NFL again?

Will Seahawks remain a team that needs 2 running backs or does Ryan Grubb hire imply a change from the past? Seaside Joe 1806

2024 feels like a living time capsule of our childhoods, no matter when you were born. Maybe now is the perfect time for running backs to have their comeback.

Because I just watched a present day version of The Grammys that had Joni Mitchell and Billy Joel as headlining acts. I saw Jay-Z receive some sort of lifetime achievement award named after Dr. Dre, which in my opinion would make just as much sense if it was Dr. Dre receiving an award named after Jay-Z. Beyoncé, who has been releasing music for over 25 years, was treated as if she’s both one of Gen Z’s most important young artists and like she’s Dame Judi Dench. I mean two different people had to perform as musical artists from the past, Miley Cyrus as Cher in spirit and Fantasia as Tina Turner in literal fashion.

And at some point during the pre-production process of booking The Grammys, someone must have been asked “Okay, what’s the biggest hit song of the year 2023 that we need to have performed?” and another person answered with a straight face, “Fast Car by Tracy Chapman?”

Not that there’s anything wrong with wanting some or all of these events to happen if you’re a fan of popular music but unless you were actually nominated for Best New Artist, everyone at The Grammys seemed to be an old artist.

You can like all of these artists and songs and I’m sure many of us do because that’s why they were there—to try anything and everything to get people to tune into a pop music awards show when there is no longer such a thing as “popular music”—but it seems pretty clear to me that as a society we dug up the time capsule and made it our present reality because the Internet has made being a “micro-star” a viable career opportunity for people and artists who would have never been able to find an audience and make a living before now.

And yes, this is an article about football and running backs.

In 1994, the Indianapolis Colts drafted running back Marshall Faulk with the second overall pick and over the next five seasons he made the Pro Bowl three times, the second team All-Pro list three times, and won Offensive Rookie of the Year. He was all the star that the Colts expected him to be coming out of San Diego State and in 1998 led the NFL with 2,227 yards from scrimmage as an elite weapon for (struggling) rookie quarterback Peyton Manning.

Despite his success, Faulk had to deal with many of the same question marks of durability and longevity that running backs must overcome today: He was 26 years old and with two years remaining on his contract, didn’t want to play another snap until his future was guaranteed. The Colts were hesitant even though Faulk just had 1,319 rushing yards+908 receiving yards for them and immediately started looking for a trade partner.

Apparently, Indianapolis was not the only team that feared a new contract for Faulk because he was…26. As a receiver or a quarterback or virtually any other position, Faulk would have been touted as a star only entering his prime but as a running back it didn’t matter that he was coming off of a transcendent season that could have given the Colts a trio of him, Manning, and Marvin Harrison for years to come.

People then, as now, didn’t expect there to be “years" to come for Faulk. Really, not even the St. Louis Rams were convinced but desperate for a running back (they were led by June Henley’s 313 rushing yards in 1998) they relented at the cost of a second round and a fifth round pick in the 1999 draft. The Colts, now desperate too after trading Faulk, selected Edgerrin James in the first round.

In a rare win-win, James led the NFL in rushing yards over the next two seasons and had a Hall of Fame career, while Faulk won three straight Offensive Player of the Year awards, 2000 MVP, and had a Hall of Fame career.

Though Faulk did sort of break down before turning 30, his presence catapulted the ‘99-’01 Rams to legendary status and he far exceeded the value of a second and a fifth.

You could say that Marshall Faulk left a good job in the city but the big wheel kept on turnin’.

Has history repeated itself with Christian McCaffrey?

You’ll hear tales from the analytics community that running backs have no value in the modern NFL, but there are many similarities you can find between Faulk and McCaffrey, separated by almost 25 years. It’s sort of like Beyoncé in Destiny’s Child compared to Beyoncé as a solo act except…two different people.

Barely more than a year ago, basically the entire NFL community thought that McCaffrey would be weak in San Francisco…but he’s stronger.

- Both McCaffrey and Faulk were traded at 26

- Both McCaffrey and Faulk had led the NFL in yards from scrimmage once before

- Both McCaffrey and Faulk were thought to have played their best football already

- Both McCaffrey and Faulk had other interested teams, but not ones that would give up first round picks

Faulk was traded wanting a new contract, but McCaffrey had already been paid a lucrative extension and the Panthers simply didn’t want to pay it anymore as they weren’t a very competitive team and he had not been healthy for the previous two seasons. Carolina put him on the trade block and similar to the Rams over two decades before, the 49ers were desperate enough to send the Panthers a competitive package of picks: A second, third, fourth, and fifth for a running back.

As you already know, San Francisco’s move was not given a positive grade on social media or the modern NFL news outlets:

Other interested teams included the Rams, Eagles, and Broncos, but their decision to not increase their offers was met with more praise than the Niners decision to give up so much. Yet the 49ers started 3-4 last season and are 26-6 since then; does Eagles GM Howie Roseman ever go to bed at night comparing Nolan Smith, Cam Jurgens, Sydney Brown, and Kelee Ringo to what might have been if Philadelphia added Christian McCaffrey to their offense?

The Rams went to two Super Bowls in three years with Faulk, the 49ers have now reached two NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl in 1.5 seasons with McCaffrey, who also won his first Offensive Player of the Year award on Thursday.

Could teams approach running backs on the trade market differently in the near future because of McCaffrey and how might that impact a Seahawks team that just selected second round running backs in back-to-back drafts?

The value of RBs today

Trading for McCaffrey was criticized on Twitter and the 49ers have had immense success since then. The Lions were just as criticized for drafting Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round but that didn’t stop Detroit from winning the division and playoff games for the first time in over 30 years. The Ravens were so confident that a running back could win multiple MVP awards that they drafted him in the first round and even let him throw passes sometimes.

Certainly I respect that teams have to use caution and discretion when guaranteeing large sums of money on backs or picking them in the first round, but it’s as proven now as it was 30 years ago that if you don’t have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback or if you run an offensive system suitable for less versatile and athletic players at the position, an elite running back can still help teams win games with more regularity than average ones.

And if you don’t have a special running back right now, you could be out of luck next season without being aggressive in your search to add one. That might have to include trades, which could put Seahawks GM John Schneider in the unique position of receiving phone calls asking him, “Do you have running backs available for trade?”

Another important wrinkle is that the more teams there are that pluck coaches from the Shanahan or McVay trees, the most offenses there are that would love to have an upgrade at running back. That should increase demand even though there isn’t any increase in supply.

Which RBs are out there?

Free Agents

Of the pending 2024 free agents, there is only one standout who could deserve mention with the tier of McCaffrey and Faulk, which is Saquon Barkley.

Barkley was unique enough as a prospect to warrant being a top-10 pick (second overall), he just turned 27 on Friday, and he has led the NFL in yards from scrimmage once before. The biggest obstacle between Barkley and comparison to Faulk is that his best season came six years ago as a rookie, but teams are going to want to know what he looks like when he’s not behind the worst offensive line in the NFL and someone’s going to be convinced that like McCaffrey, he just needs a change of scenery.

I would think that a team like the L.A. Chargers, with Jim Harbaugh committed to running the football in order to improve Justin Herbert’s offense, is prepared to take that chance on Barkley. After him, I’d say all the other options are more names than potential game-changers: Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, and Derrick Henry, who is 30 and therefore less likely to be in his prime.

That’s when I think the conversation has to turn to other options.

Draft

This seems to be the worst running back class of our times. Last year’s group was led by Bijan Robinson and Gibbs, but even 2022 could be relatively special because of Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III. There’s no such running back in the 2024 class and we might not see one come off the board until round three. The top-ranked right now include Jonathan Brooks (who was first but then tore his ACL), followed by Blake Corum, Trey Benson, and Braelon Allen.

There’s a non-zero chance that running backs don’t come off the board until round four. This further increases the demand for running backs on the trade market and free agency.

Trade Market

Indy’s decision to extend Jonathan Taylor last year instead of trade him took a huge name off of the market. The Colts probably looked ahead and realized they couldn’t do better than Taylor, which is what prompted them to give into his demands when the Internet said not to do it. (Taylor had a quiet year, but his exclamation point was 188 rushing yards in the season finale.)

The Saints could trade Alvin Kamara, but releasing or dealing him doesn’t do much for their salary cap woes and he’s turning 29 this summer. And then you have a group of backs who maybe just found their footing in the NFL, like James Cook, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne.

Instead, I would look at running backs who were highly-rated coming out of college, had success in the NFL, and might not be as good of fits for their current teams as expected because of coaching changes or new teammates now competing for their spot, which leads me to two names:

The Steelers’ Najee Harris and the Broncos’ Javonte Williams. Both have spent three years in the league, both have flashed some success, both have upcoming contract decisions by their teams. Pittsburgh has another new offensive coordinator (Arthur Smith, which could be great for Harris) and Denver’s going into year two of Sean Payton. I wonder if either of them could end up on the trade market and if they might fetch second round picks+ from teams desperate to upgrade a position that won’t have many options in free agency or the 2024 draft.

Where does this leave the Seahawks?

Seattle’s decision this week to hire former UW Huskies OC Ryan Grubb as the next offensive coordinator leaves outsiders with a lot of unanswerable questions as to the future of the Seahawks offense. The Huskies had a talented running back named Dillon Johnson but certainly were not a “running back team” and they DEFINITELY were not a “2-running back team”.

Johnson was the running back and was rarely taken out of the game in favor of backups or alongside him.

This is not at all like a Kyle Shanahan offense because fullback Kyle Juszczyk still played in 46% of the offensive snaps and the 49ers run as much two-back as any team in the NFL. If there is a rise in teams emulating San Francisco’s success in a copycat league, we should expect more offenses to have two-back systems and/or a deep stable of backs in 2024. But the Seahawks would seem to be going in the opposite direction of that by hiring Grubb.

And I don’t think there’s anything we can learn offensively from Mike Macdonald’s time with the Baltimore Ravens: Gus Edwards and Justice Hill had about equal playing time and fullback Patrick Ricard had over 39% of the snaps, but unless you have Lamar Jackson at quarterback how does anyone “copy” the Ravens?

The Seahawks invested second round draft picks in two REALLY GOOD running backs, Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. How does Pete Carroll doing that for Shane Waldron and Seattle’s offense line up with John Schneider remaking the Seahawks in Macdonald and Grubb’s vision? Do the Seahawks hold a competition between Walker and Charbonnet and “may the best man win”? Does Grubb borrow principles from Shanahan, add a fullback, and utilize more two-back offense in 2024? Even if they did, wouldn’t that leave Walker or Charbonnet on the outside? Do the Seahawks want to set the clock back a year on paying a running back by turning the reins over to Charbonnet because he can’t even go to the bargaining table until 2026?

And does Schneider even entertain calls about Walker knowing that a) He’s as explosive as any running back in the NFL today and b) Seattle would risk watching Walker develop into an elite All-Pro in a different system just as the Panthers have to do every week when McCaffrey gains 100+ yards and scores 1+ touchdowns?

It’s not as simple as just really liking two players because I KNOW we ALL really like these two players. We might like Billy Joel too, but is now the time? It’s complicated because coaching changes and the potential for a robust market as a result of supply-and-demand means that the Seahawks have to consider whether or not they’re holding onto the past (Pete Carroll) at the cost of what might be best for the future. Yet at the same time, risking the future because you’re caught forgetting the past.

The Seattle Seahawks must ask themselves: “Are we adding something to a time capsule meant for the future or did we become the time capsule of the past?”